Rebirth of the Capital Legend
Chapter 544: Clash of bullish and bearish views among retail investors!
Faced with such a closing situation at noon, although there were considerable differences in views on the market trends among various hot money and institutional groups, the major online investment exchange platforms where countless retail investors gathered were unanimously bullish and the opinions were still quite enthusiastic.
After all, in the morning market trend...
Although the Shanghai Composite Index did not rise much and maintained a sideways trend with shrinking volume, the ChiNext Index, CSI 500 Index and CSI 1000 Index, which represent the market trends of small, medium and micro-cap stocks, achieved a sharp rise in the green. In addition, more than 3000 of the nearly 2000 stocks in the two markets rose in the green.
Therefore, the overall money-making effect of the market, especially in the area of individual stocks where retail investors gather, is still relatively strong.
"Today's trend is good. The overall market didn't rise much, but individual stocks generally rose sharply. Haha... Finally, one of the stocks I hold hit the daily limit today."
"It's time to do this. At least it's time to rotate small-cap stocks to make up for the gains, right?"
"It's true. Today, it seems to be a route of compensatory growth. However, the 'new energy industry chain' line is really weak. Other low-level main line stocks have moved, but this sector is still motionless. Sigh... I really shouldn't have invested heavily in stocks in this field."
"The 'new energy industry chain' has been hyped before, but there is not enough time and space for adjustment now, right?"
"I think it was mainly due to the liquidation of Su's Huayi Capital, which resulted in no major funds willing to go long in this field."
"It's not entirely because of Mr. Su's liquidation. It's because this line hasn't fallen enough, and the decline period is too short. A large number of previously locked-in shares haven't loosened yet. With this chip structure, which main force dares to pull the market up? It would be strange if it didn't get smashed to pieces if it did."
"If that's the case, then isn't this also the reason for the three core sectors, film and television media, Internet software, and Internet applications? How did they rebound so smoothly?"
"Look at when the film and television media, Internet software, and Internet applications sectors began to fall. And they are at a lower position. Take Huawen Online, Quantong Education, Huawen Media, Baofeng Technology, and Netspeed Technology... The share prices of these stocks are basically only 20% of the peak of the bull market last year, a drop of about 80%. Even if the fundamentals are rubbish, they should rebound, right?"
"Yes, at present, many core stocks in the 'new energy industry chain' are still halfway up the mountain."
"It's mainly the 'new energy industry chain' line. At the beginning of the year, Mr. Su's 'Huayi Capital' led the hype and pushed the expectations for this main line too high. Now that the performance of a number of core leading stocks on this line has come out, everyone has discovered that the degree of performance explosion is significantly different from the original expectations. The entire industry is still a long way from a real explosion in volume and performance. If expectations are not met, the stock price will naturally not perform very well. I think it is normal for the 'new energy industry chain' line to be so weak. The market trend, the explosion of the main line, and the funds invested in the market are all real money. Nothing is without reason."
"In the entire market, it seems that only the 'new energy industry chain' has not rebounded?"
"Not only that, the livestock and agricultural sectors have not risen that much, but these two sectors have not fallen much before, and no funds have paid much attention to them."
"Not to mention agriculture and animal husbandry, these sectors are totally unimaginative and no one cares about them."
“Looking at the trend, it seems that the ‘new energy industry chain’ line can’t fall any further!”
"It can't fall because the overall market conditions are good and the index is still rising. Believe it or not, once the market adjusts slightly, this line will immediately lead the market down."
"I think it's better for everyone to focus on the core hot spots at the moment."
"It's hard to say. I feel the market is going to take a fast rotation path. Today, the 'big infrastructure' that is the core theme of the market has become a little weak."
"Well, I also feel that the main line of 'big infrastructure' is a bit weak today, and the trend is obviously lower than expected."
"Is the 'big infrastructure' line going to be adjusted again? It feels like this line hasn't risen much, and the Shanghai Composite Index just broke through 3000 points not long ago. If it is adjusted at this position, it will easily interrupt the Shanghai Composite Index's breakthrough of 3000 points!"
"It hasn't risen much yet? 'Oriental Yuhong' has doubled, and in the entire 'big infrastructure' main line, there are quite a few stocks that have doubled in this wave."
"After breaking through the previous platform, it really didn't rise much. You can't just look at the leading core stocks, you have to look at the increase in the industry sector index and the average increase in most stocks in the main line areas. In this wave of 'big infrastructure' main line areas, take the three most powerful core sectors of real estate, building decoration, and building materials. After breaking through the previous shock platform, the index of these three core sectors has only risen by about 27%, which is really not much."
"Yes, the Shanghai Composite Index has actually only risen by less than 10% from the previous adjustment platform."
"I think if the market is to develop and maintain momentum, the market cannot stop here. Once it stops and forms a new shock platform, the market will obviously weaken, and there will be no chance for a further upward breakthrough in the future."
"Whether it can continue to break upward is not up to us to decide. It depends on the willingness of the main market funds."
"The willingness of the main funds in the market to go long should still be relatively strong, right?"
"It should be considered relatively strong. Recently, there are obviously more hot money seats on the list, especially new hot money seats. Even Mr. Su's 'Fuxing Road' seat has not been seen for a long time."
“As long as it is clear that Mr. Su is still in the locked position, there will be no problem.”
"It's not a big deal if the index adjusts slightly here and falls back to the support level of 3000 points."
"Confidence has not been fully established yet. Even if it is to fall back, it will be safe and have room to fall back after the Shanghai Composite Index continues to rise to above 3100 points. If it falls back now... then the long sentiment and investment confidence that the market has accumulated with great difficulty in the past few days will most likely disappear. Once the market sentiment subsides, it will be difficult to gather it again. After all, at that time, with lower expectations, the selling pressure in the market will be greater, and the group of funds on the sidelines will be even more reluctant to enter the market to take over when they see the market's money-making effect decline and the trend fall back."
"That makes sense. For this position, we still need to make a concerted effort."
"I think the main line of 'big infrastructure' will not necessarily pull back. Looking at the market trend of 'Oriental Yuhong', it is obviously still strong. Even if there is a pullback during the day, the follow-up is quite strong. Basically, every short-term dive will be re-bought by the follow-up buying funds, and it will not fall at all. With this trend... at most, it will shrink and go sideways today, and it will most likely hit a new high tomorrow. As long as the core leading stock 'Oriental Yuhong' does not collapse and can maintain a strong money-making effect, the sentiment in the entire 'big infrastructure' main line field will not collapse. In fact, today in the main line of 'big infrastructure', the trend of a number of core leading stocks, although in a shrinking and sideways trend, can not be said to be weak. Think about it... how many stocks have been able to maintain such a strong sideways situation during adjustments?"
"That's true. Compared with the trends of the three major industry sectors of film and television media, Internet software, and Internet applications in the main field of 'emerging industrial chains', the trends of the major industry sectors in the main field of 'big infrastructure' are indeed strong. Looking at the previous historical trends, as long as the main funds do not actively push up the 'emerging industrial chains' line, its trend will continue to fall, and selling pressure will emerge in an endless stream. And if you look at the 'big infrastructure' line, there are also core leading stocks in the fields of liquor, white appliances, medicine, consumption, electricity, petrochemicals, finance and other sectors in the main field of weight. When they adjust, they are basically in the form of extremely shrinking volume. Although there are not many buying orders, there are basically few active selling orders."
"This is a manifestation of the different overall chip structures within the major main lines." "Yes, yes, it is a problem of chip structure. From this logical point of view, the main line of 'big infrastructure' and a number of core leading stocks in the field of weighted main lines have a more stable trend."
"After all, these two main lines are where the main institutional funds are concentrated and heavily invested."
"If that's the case, the market is unlikely to fall any further?"
“I think the index will not fall at this position, at least. After all, the potential short-selling force is not strong at present. Even if there are some profit-taking orders, after continuous volume turnover, everyone’s profit space is not much, and there is no desire to actively sell. As for the previous historical locked-in orders…many stocks are actually quite far away from the concentrated areas of the previous historical locked-in orders, so there is no need to worry too much about the concentrated selling pressure of the previous historical locked-in orders.”
"Well, I remember that before the third round of stock market crash, the Shanghai Composite Index was around 3600 points."
"That is to say, the core area where the previous historical trapped shares gathered should be between 4000 and 3300 points. As long as the Shanghai Composite Index does not touch this range, the selling pressure of the trapped shares in the market will not be particularly large."
“No one says that it is the selling pressure of historical locked-in positions that is restricting the development of the current market.”
"Yes, the market is currently hesitant, especially the Shanghai Composite Index, mainly due to the overall market volume problem."
“Yes, it seems like the market’s turnover has never been able to go up.”
"Without volume, there is no market. As the saying goes, volume precedes price. If the market wants to continue to move upward, it must get rid of the situation of inventory game."
"It is true that the off-market capital group is not yet enthusiastic enough to enter the market and go long."
"There is no way, right? The central bank won't cut interest rates, and the property market is siphoning money off the market. The funds that can flow into the stock market are really limited. I think it's good enough to maintain a turnover of 4 to 5 billion. Look at the previous six months when the volume was shrinking and falling, the Shanghai Composite Index hit a minimum of 1800 billion, and the two markets reached 3000 billion. Compared with the initial volume, it has now recovered a lot."
"It is highly likely that we won't see a rate cut, but we can look forward to other favorable policy directions."
'What policy benefits? "
“Does pension funds entering the market count?”
"It has been said for a long time that pension funds will enter the market. Every time it is good news, I think the market has become immune to this news. It has no effect at all. Moreover, if pension funds really enter the market, can they buy up the market? How much can pension funds buy? The national team bought trillions of yuan during the stock market crash, but it didn't stop the market from plummeting. I think... For everything, we still have to go with the flow. The current market trend is a rebound after a long decline. We really can't expect too much."
"It is definitely a rebound at the moment, but if the market sentiment can be stabilized and the 'big infrastructure' line can really create room for the market to make money, then that's not certain. Anyway, I am still optimistic about the market trend in the second half of the year, and this year will definitely recover the losses caused by the stock market crash at the beginning of the year."
"3000 points is definitely not the end point of the Shanghai Index. At least it has to reach 3000 points before this round of rebound will end, right?"
"It's useless to look at the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index. I think the ChiNext Index, the CSI 500 Index, and the CSI 1000 Index are the only ones that can represent the market's money-making effect. Looking at the trends of these indexes, it's clear that they have just bottomed out and are forming a rebound cycle. So... I judge that this is definitely not the high point of this round of rebound. There will definitely be another big wave of main rising market to come."
"Let's hope so. I really didn't make a penny from this rebound. The stocks I own didn't even break through last month's high."
"Take it slow. I feel that the rotation of the main market lines is indeed accelerating. Stocks that were stagnant in the early stage will definitely make up for the rise later. After the low-priced stocks have made up for the rise, I feel that it is time for the big players in the core main line areas such as 'big infrastructure' and weight main line to adjust and restart their journey."
"In general, this position can't be shorted, right?"
"It's not that we can't be bearish, but there's no need to be afraid. After all, the index hasn't risen much. At worst, it will go back to around 2850 points."
“That’s true. Even if it falls back to the 2850-point platform, it won’t fall much.”
“If it really falls back to 2850 points, the previous platform support level will definitely be broken. Maybe… it will go straight back to 2500 points.”
"Haha... I don't think so."
"In fact, overall, the macro fundamentals are improving. Although many core leading stocks in the weighted main line areas and the 'big infrastructure' main line areas have risen a lot compared to the stock prices at the beginning of the year, the valuations have not changed much. This shows that the rise of these stocks is purely due to the improvement of macro fundamentals and driven by performance. The overall valuation level of the market is still at a historical low."
"Well, I agree. Overall, our A shares are definitely still undervalued."
With the heated discussions among countless retail investors on the investment exchange platform across the entire network, the one and a half hour lunch break passed quickly.
Soon, countless investors' attention was focused on it.
At 1 p.m., after a brief suspension of one and a half hours, the two markets once again ushered in the formal continuous bidding trading session under the brewing sentiment of the afternoon.
Only a relatively positive mood effect was seen after midday.
At 1:5 p.m., the two markets had just resumed their activity. The 'consumer electronics' sector, which had performed strongly in the morning and had achieved a certain profit-making effect, as well as the 'G communications' and 'semiconductor' sectors, quickly attracted a large number of funds to follow suit and buy shares without waiting for too many people to react.
And driven by these funds that follow the trend and rush to buy shares.
Almost instantly, the share prices of these core concept sectors and the corresponding concept stocks were driven up rapidly by funds. (End of this chapter)
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