Steel, gunpowder, and spellcasters

Chapter 517 Prologue: The Worst Ending (Part 3)

"Let me tell you how this civil war will end, cadet!"

Cornelius said in a deep voice:
"The best outcome would be for the Western Front to annihilate the Hongchuan rebels and take over North Palatine; for the Southern Front to defeat the rebels in the newly established land and recover South Palatine; and then, we would integrate the resources of Palatine, march eastward, and force Venetta to submit."
"In this way, we can unify our policies, completely end the current situation where the republics act independently, fight each other, and are constantly engaged in internal strife, and save the alliance from the abyss of self-destruction."

"Then, we must promote reconciliation, heal wounds, eliminate hatred, and unite all parties—this is no easier than military conquest. It is no exaggeration to say that winning over souls is ten or even a hundred times more difficult than destroying bodies."

"But we must do it, because only in this way can the alliance truly become a nation."

"Only in this way can the Alliance survive the war that the Empire will inevitably inflict upon her."

"Only in this way is there a slight possibility that the false emperor would not dare to look south from the very beginning."

"Only then will we be qualified to say that we have fulfilled the great aspirations of our forefathers;
"Only then will we be able to say that we have fulfilled the promises of the Charter of the Alliance."

"Only then will we be qualified to say that the Cenas Union is a country that belongs to all Cenas people."

"Long live the League, may its glory endure forever." Jason Cornelius's eyes shone brightly: "This is the best outcome we could have hoped for."

Fritz listened expressionlessly.

Cornelius, unfazed, continued, "The second-best outcome we can hope for is the complete annihilation of the Southern Front, while the Western Front fails to achieve its strategic objectives and suffers heavy losses."

“Then Venetta will first annex South Paratu, then take North Paratu, integrate the resources of the entire Paratu territory, and then destroy us—the United Provinces Republic, the Unified Alliance.”

"Is this the best possible outcome?" Fritz chuckled dryly.

“Why not?” Cornelius raised an eyebrow, pointing to the tip of his nose: “I, you, the United Province, Veneta… it doesn’t matter whether we or they are in the ending.”

"The only thing that matters is that the alliance must achieve true unity, otherwise it will never be able to escape internal strife! It will be unable to withstand the empire's invasion! It will be divided and defeated one by one by the enemy!"

“If you were to deliver this speech in a public square,” Fritz calmly commented, “you would be considered alarmist and a pessimist.”

"Then let me tell you, students, those who think I'm exaggerating and worrying unnecessarily are the most blind, the most ignorant, and the most narrow-minded people!"

Cornelius raised his arm, pointed to the cabinet at the other end of the office, filled with file boxes, and said through gritted teeth:

"Because they simply do not understand the immense power and unwavering resolve of our enemy!"

"They are still living in the victory of the last war, but we were able to win last time because the enemy made a mistake."

"I have studied the Empire for sixteen years, and when the next war comes, I cannot find any possibility that Henry Sunburst will repeat the mistakes of the Mad Emperor."

Fritz turned around, his gaze sweeping over the enormous file boxes that were just two spaces away from filling three entire walls.

Although by nature, he would not easily believe any conclusion without first investigating it himself.

But at this moment, his intuition told him that what the former chief of staff said was true.

“So, I’m here to tell you what a bad ending is.” Cornelius took a deep breath, regaining his usual dignified composure:
"The bad ending was that the Southern Front lost as expected, the Western Front won as expected, Venetta annexed South Paratú, and the United Provinces annexed North Paratú. Neither side could gain an absolute advantage over the other, and the two sides exhausted their strength in a long tug-of-war. Then the Empire took advantage of the situation and the Cenas Alliance was destroyed."

Fritz's heart skipped a beat.

“That’s right.” Cornelius sneered: “This is exactly the scenario Henry Sun wanted to see. This is also why, even though the Paratul Civil War has already been decided and the Alliance is on the verge of a full-scale civil war, there is not a single sign of military preparation in the north—except for the massive expansion of the navy.”

"Henry Sun even deliberately purged the Southern Army General Staff at this critical juncture, personally removing the biggest obstacle to the Civil War for us."

Officer Fritz's level knew very little about matters outside the alliance: "You mean, as soon as fighting starts here, the reconstruction of the Southern Army will be immediately put on the agenda?"

"On the agenda?" Cornelius let out a sneer as if he were dealing with the ignorant: "The purge of the Southern Army has stopped, and the reconstruction of the Southern Army has been on the agenda from the beginning, only it has been carried out in a covert and inconspicuous way."

"This is exactly Henry Sun's style. It was the same in the Great Northern War, the Saracen War, and the war to suppress the Bohemians... Only when his hammer smashes your head will you realize that he has been watching you all along."

“The ridiculous thing is,” Cornelius lamented, not even realizing he was rambling on, “that so many people around us are gloating over victories from thirty years ago, mocking Henry Sundance for calling him an ‘oathbreaker’ and thinking themselves so brave, dreaming every day of winning the North again…”

"So that's why you said, 'The Alliance cannot lose Kingsburg'? Otherwise, a 'bad ending' is our inevitable fate?" Fritz asked softly. "But how could the Southern Army possibly hold Kingsburg with its strength?"

Cornelius, interrupted from his long speech, paused for a moment, stared at the former student for a short while, and shook his head in disappointment and helplessness.

“You’ve only seen the first layer, cadet,” Kaniris said coldly. “Think more—think more. If you can see this, and I can see this, then those old fogies in the military can see this. So why are they still rushing headlong toward this ‘bad ending’?”

Fritz couldn't understand why the military would want to commit mass suicide.

In the end, he lowered his head and decided to accept the role of being taught: "This student is dull-witted, please guide me."

Cornelius showed no smugness or arrogance; he simply said calmly, "What I just told you was only the bad ending. After the bad ending... there is an even worse ending."

Please feel free to offer your guidance.

Cornelius stared directly into the student's eyes:
"The worst outcome would be that the Southern Front would lose South Paratú as expected, and the Western Front would win North Paratú as expected, with Venetta and the United Provinces facing each other across the river, with no further advances."

Cornelius's gaze was as deep as a still pool:
"Moreover, students, I can tell you that this worst-case scenario is the most likely and feasible outcome at present."

"As long as the Western Front takes all of North Palatour and the Southern Front loses Kingsburg, those old fogies in the military will immediately push for the United Provinces and Venetta to de-escalate, cease hostilities, and negotiate peace."

"Do you know what the scariest place is?"
"The scariest thing is that no matter how much the Venetians bargain, they will eventually sign the armistice agreement."

"The most frightening thing is that if a ceasefire is reached, the civil war will be confined to Palatour. With no direct confrontation between Venetia and the United Provinces, the narrow valley between the two mountains will achieve the most cost-effective internal integration with minimal losses."

"In this situation, Henry Lieyang will face a narrow valley divided in two, yet each part is complete."

“I can tell you right now, student, Henry Lieyang will absolutely not act rashly. Although it may seem that the Cenas Alliance has been divided in two, if ‘Northern Cenas’ is in imminent danger, ‘Southern Cenas’ will definitely not stand idly by.”

"Therefore, he will change his strategy and shift his focus from military conquest to diplomatic means—you think Henry Lieyang's military skills are already very high, right? I can tell you, cadet, Henry Lieyang's diplomatic skills are even more superb than his military skills."

"He would incite conflict between the North and the South, exacerbate their contradictions, and wait until the gap between them deepened, until their contradictions became insurmountable, until their people began to hate each other. Then, Henry Sun would make his move—he always made his move at the most opportune moment."

"He would either sway one side or attack the other. It's even possible that he wouldn't need to 'sway' them at all; one side would simply submit to him, prostrate themselves at his feet, kiss his boots, and weep, begging the great emperor to lend a helping hand..."

Cornelius was eloquent and spoke at length.

Fritz felt a chill creep up his spine from his tailbone, spreading throughout his chest. The more he listened to the former chief of staff, the stronger and more penetrating the chill became, making it hard for him to breathe and causing his soul to tremble—not because the scene the former chief of staff described was so desperate, but because Fritz realized that it was indeed the most likely outcome.

Cornelius suddenly clapped his hands hard, startling Fritz out of his reverie.

“That’s all.” Cornelius looked at the former student whose forehead was covered in a fine layer of sweat: “None of these are the reasons why I said this ending is the ‘worst’.”

Fritz felt a profound sense of powerlessness: "Could there be a worse reason?"

"Yes. Because war never goes according to one side's plan. No matter how Henry Lieyang strategizes, there will always be insightful people among us who will rise up and fight back."

After saying that, Cornelius pointed to himself, "like me," and then to Fritz, "and maybe you too."

Cornelius's gaze was firm: "It all depends on human effort; the outcome is still uncertain."

"That……"

"I said this ending is the 'worst' because if it really comes to that, then whether Henry Lieyang's ambitions are realized or fail..."

Cornelius sighed deeply, his expression one of utter desolation and sorrow:

"From now on, the people of this land will be separated, one in the south and one in the north, with no further connection between them."

"The legacy of Marshal Ned Smith, and the countless heroes who bled and died in the Sovereignty Wars and whose names were never even recorded, will be utterly destroyed."

Fritz felt as if a string in his heart had snapped.

Cornelius remained silent for a long time, then suddenly burst into laughter and said loudly:

"Therefore, the Alliance cannot lose Kingsburg! If the Alliance loses Kingsburg, then the worst outcome will inevitably come."

"So even though we know the Southern Army is a expendable pawn, even though we know those old fogies want to exhaust us, we must still head to Kingsburg."

"Therefore, no matter the cost or the means, we must defend the Fortress of Kings."

"We must not only defend it, but also defend it with influence, maintain its status, and preserve its invaluable worth."

"We must make sure that the United Provinces Republic knows about us, that the Army Headquarters has no choice but to support us, and that the Western Front, after clearing out North Paratu, has no choice but to continue fighting in South Paratu."

Fritz also perked up and nodded.

“So,” Cornelius leaned towards the former cadet and asked, “that young officer—that young officer burdened with infamy, that young officer full of passion—did he want to bury himself in the war history department? Or did he want to shine for his country once again?”

Fritz paused for a moment, organized his thoughts, and answered carefully:

"In fact, General, I do not entirely agree with your idea of ​​'integrating the country through civil war.' At least so far, you have not convinced me. I still believe that if we abandon the path of civil war from the beginning, we can find a way to integrate the country without bloodshed."

"The inevitable civil war of today is not only a result, but also a cause. The inevitable civil war of today is because some people were determined from the beginning to unify the alliance through civil war and have been pushing toward that goal ever since."

Cornelius snorted dismissively upon hearing this. He didn't bother to speak again, turned his back, and waved his hand, indicating that the other party could leave.

But Fritz wasn't finished speaking.

Cornelius heard the resounding vows of his former cadet:

"However, I agree, I agree with your definition of 'worst outcome'."

"Before today, all I did was to free the foothills from endless preparations for war, the source of suffering for countless poor people in the foothills. More despairing than the suffering itself is the lack of end."

"So I only pray for change. I am willing to be a tool, even if it means being shattered to pieces, being disgraced, or being condemned to eternal damnation. This is the direction I have never wavered in. Everything I have done before today is for this purpose."

"And from this moment forward, I will also take it upon myself to prevent the Alliance from going to the worst possible end, and I will protect the legacy of Marshal Ned Smith and all the heroes who sacrificed their lives in the Sovereign Wars—until my last breath."

Fritz of Nice, his eyes gleaming and his words resounding, said, “So I will go, to Palatine, to the Southern Army, wherever I can go in that direction—I will go anywhere, whether it’s hell or heaven.”

Cornelius scrutinized his former student for a long time, then suddenly slammed his hand on the table and burst into laughter: "What a pity I didn't discover you earlier! The old marshal praised me for my discerning eye, but in reality, I was blind to your talent. I'm ashamed... But you're not the first person I overlooked. Ha, not long ago, I realized I'd missed someone even more remarkable..."

Fritz was taken aback, realizing for the first time that Jason Cornelius, who was usually stern, irritable, and never bothered with nonsense, could also be so talkative.

“Oh well, whatever… Anyway…” Cornelius stood up and solemnly extended his hand to his fellow student in front of him: “Welcome to the team.”

Fritz immediately stood up and grasped the hand of his companion and mentor: "The 'bigger omission' you mentioned...could it be?"

“Who else could it be?” Cornelius smiled. “It’s that one.”

Fritz's heart skipped a beat, and he carefully organized his thoughts: "Sir, actually, I have two more questions to ask..."

“Just call me teacher.” Cornelius waved his hand casually. “Even though I stopped teaching when you enrolled, you are still my student. Feel free to ask me any questions.”

Fritz bowed, then frowned and asked, "First of all, I don't understand why you say Winters Montagne is the Southern Front's greatest enemy?"

"Why?" Cornelius chuckled, then slowly suppressed his smile, as if realizing something very serious.

He pondered for a moment, then said heavily, "Because that's who he is."

[Orz]
[I'm not trying to be politically savvy, but it was only when I was writing the latter half that I suddenly realized this part was a bit like EW. But actually, when I was conceiving this plot, EW hadn't even started yet (crying)]
Ultimately, there is nothing new under the sun. History doesn't repeat itself, but it rhymes. What is happening now can always be traced back to its past.
[In the worst-case scenario, the best strategy for the oath-breaker is the one described in the book, and given his intelligence, he will certainly choose this strategy.]
[However, theory is theory, and practice is practice. Whether you reach your destination and the direction you chose at the start are two different things. That's why Cornelius said that there would definitely be insightful people within the league who would fight, change, and avoid this outcome—he himself was one of them.]
[And wow, it's already been four years! I've missed so many updates in these four years, I'm so damn damn... damn it...]
I am so, so, so, so sorry