The richest man starts with a blind box

Chapter 444
"Boss, how do we invest next?" At this moment, the young Swift, the god of finance in the hearts of Americans, was asking Huang He respectfully.

"Continue to short!" Huang He touched his nose and said.

"Then who are you shorting?" Little Swift then asked.

"Well, let's short Apple!" Huang He laughed.

"What!" Little Swift was stunned on the spot, and looked at Huang He with envy and disbelief. He never expected that Huang He would say such a suggestion.

Obviously they pushed Apple's stock price to a peak before, but now they want to stab Apple backhand?

"Boss, what's the situation?" Little Swift asked in a low voice.

"Apple's new imac G4 will be officially launched this month!" Huang He said lightly.

"Yes, the board of directors has been notified, and Jobs promised that this will cause a boom in sales!" said Swift Jr.

"Hot shit, this time Apple is going to be doomed!" Huang He scolded with a smile.

In the eyes of later generations, Apple is basically equal to Apple mobile phones, but in fact Apple's main business is personal computers, and this is the project that accounts for the bulk of Apple's revenue.

Compared with imac, the profit of ipod4 is actually less than 60% of that of imac.

So why did ipod4 let Apple's stock price start to take off?
This is because Apple's research and development costs are high, and operating costs are also high. The profits of the previous imac were not enough to support Apple's costs. Therefore, Apple is basically losing money every year, and the stock price is naturally impossible to rise.

Until the addition of an ipod4 product line, this 60% profit turned Apple into a profit, with a profit of more than one billion US dollars, which naturally caused Apple's stock price to rise.

However, if the sales of Imac series computers, Apple's main revenue item, collapse at this time, Apple's profits will collapse instantly, and the entire Apple will return to the previous Apple that lost money every year.

Little Swift really became smarter, he quickly reflected and said, "So boss, do you think the new version of imac will usher in a crash this time?"

"It's not that the new version of imac G4 will cause the crash this time, but that the crash has already started, but it was covered by the sales of iPod4, but now, Apple can't cover it up!" Huang He said lightly.

imac4G is the latest imac computer released last year, and in August, imac will usher in an upgrade, upgrading two different styles of imac processors to 8Ghz and 1Ghz respectively.

This is a fairly normal operation. After all, personal computers are not mobile phones, and a new model can be released every year.

Apple's iMac basically launches a new model in three years, that is, it is completely updated from the appearance to the internal configuration, which is equivalent to changing from iPhone4 to iPhone5.

However, in order to maintain the competitiveness of the computer, Apple will also update the iMac every year. With the appearance unchanged, some configurations will be upgraded, which is equivalent to changing from iPhone 4 to iPhone 4S.

Soon, Apple will make such an update to the latest imac G4, mainly to adjust the functions of the processor.

Because he has only invested in Apple for nearly a year, Little Swift’s research on Apple is also quite in-depth. From the establishment of Apple to the present, Little Swift has read all the materials. After all, Little Swift once did Through the chairman of Apple, all kinds of confidential information are completely open to Swift Jr.

According to past experience, the update of the large version of the imac may indeed lead to the collapse of the entire imac series. After all, the update of the large version requires a large-scale adjustment in appearance, and once the appearance does not meet the user's aesthetics, the sales volume will be reduced. will crash instantly.

However, small updates have never happened, leading to the collapse of the overall sales. After all, the main body has not changed, but some internal configurations have been adjusted. No matter how you think about it, it is impossible to cause a collapse!

"Let me ask you a question, do you think Imac G4 looks good?" Huang He asked lightly.

"It's a bit ugly..." Little Swift said sincerely. The imac G4 is an all-in-one machine. He integrated the entire chassis on a hemispherical base, and then plugged in a display screen to become the latest in the imac series. Model, figuratively speaking, this is a bit like a desk lamp.

In the mouths of many marketing accounts in later generations, this computer is called the most beautiful Apple in history, saying how beautiful this Apple computer is. The imacG4 also has a group of diehard fans, which seems to be very beautiful.

But at the time, it was unceremoniously evaluated as an ugly word by most people.

"If you look at the data, you will know that it has been a year and a half since the sales started last year, but the sales in the next year combined are less than 60% of the sales in the first half of the year. Don't you think Is this very dangerous?" Huang He asked lightly.

Indeed, Little Swift has seen Apple's sales data. In the first 4 months after the launch of the imac6G, a total of 128 million units were sold.

But in the next year, only 78 units were sold, with a total sales of 206 million units.

This figure sounds pretty good. After all, the total sales of the first-generation imacG3 so far is less than 400 million units.

However, anyone with a discerning eye can see that this is really a problem. The sales volume of imac G4 within half a year after its release is so amazing, obviously it was blessed by the previous generation of G3, so many fans bought G4.

And the sales volume plummeted in the following year, which only shows that the G4 is not popular with users in the actual market sales, at least far less popular than the G3.

You must know that in the last year of sales of G3, that is, in 2001, there were still 106 million sales in the whole year.

And within six months of its initial release, the sales volume was less than 50. The sales curve of the entire G3 is undoubtedly a positive curve, which is completely opposite to the current G4.

From this point of view, the prospect of imacG4 is extremely worrying.

"I think Jobs must have been aware of this problem, so he recently released a new version of G4, which upgraded the computing power of the chip on the basis of keeping the price unchanged, and wanted to use this to open up the market for imacG4, but I am sure this It's just a drop in the bucket, it's impossible to save the imacG4, on the contrary, maybe it won't push the imacG4 into the abyss!" Huang He said while tapping on the table.

"So I am sure that Apple's stock price will fall in the future, with a drop of more than 40%. Although it is not as scary as Yahoo, the time may last for about half a year, but the decline will definitely fall. You can continue to maintain short positions on Apple. , at least I can earn more than one billion dollars!" Huang He said.

"I understand!" Little Swift nodded, and then continued, "But boss, Apple's current total market value is only about 400 billion US dollars, and I can't use all of my 300 billion to short Apple. Apple is overwhelmed, and I will take 50 billion to short Apple at most, and I will die if there is more!"

"I know!" Huang He nodded, "You can invest the remaining money in those large oil stocks!"

"Oil stocks? Isn't this a stock that is in a state of rapid decline?" Hearing Huang He's words, little Swift asked again in puzzlement.

Oil stocks in 2003 can be regarded as extremely volatile stocks, because the stock prices of oil stocks are basically tied to international oil prices.

When the international oil price rises, the stock price of oil stocks will rise.When the international oil price drops, oil stocks will drop accordingly. Sometimes it may be different, but most of the time this rule is certain.

In February 2003, the United States announced that it would send troops to Iraq, officially launching the Iraq War.

Because Iraq is one of the major oil-producing countries, and it is also a large oil-producing country, because Iraq has been subject to economic sanctions, and then the Western countries led by the United States have introduced an oil-for-food plan, only allowing Iraq to exchange oil for food, Maintain the lives of ordinary people in the country.

Therefore, Iraq has no choice but to produce a large amount of oil to maintain the country.

Then the United States launched the Iraq war, Iraqi crude oil exports stopped instantly, and there was a large gap in international crude oil. As a result, in just one week, the international oil price rose by more than 10 US dollars, from 20 US dollars a barrel to 30 US dollars. A barrel of U.S. dollars continued to rise, and the peak price rose to 45 U.S. dollars a barrel, and the international oil price doubled.

The doubling of international oil prices has naturally caused crude oil stocks around the world to skyrocket. After all, the price has increased while the production remains unchanged, and the profits of all companies have increased.

So if someone bought crude oil stocks in February 03, and then held them until May before selling them, then his life will achieve a perfect counterattack, and his personal assets can at least triple.

However, in May 2003, the international oil price began to drop suddenly, and it dived back to about 5 US dollars within a month, followed by crude oil stocks began to plummet all the way.

The reason is because the United States is strong in martial arts, and it only took more than two months to occupy the entire territory of Iraq. At the same time, it announced the end of the Iraq war, and then restarted Iraq’s oil facilities and restarted the oil-for-food program so that the Iraqi people have food. Come to eat.

As a result, crude oil prices began to fall quickly, because the war ended quickly, and only a small part of Iraq's oil facilities were damaged, most of which were still intact and could be restarted in a short period of time. The market generally believed that Iraq would soon resume oil production .

Moreover, in order to restore the economy, oil production will increase again, and international oil prices will definitely drop.

As a result, oil stocks have been falling until now, basically falling back to the level of early February. Although the rise and fall in the five months was very alarming, a lot of rich people were created, and a lot of leeks were created, but in the end they still fell lonely. , back to the original point.

Even judging from the current trend, there is still the possibility of falling again. As a result, Huang He actually asked himself to invest in oil stocks, which was somewhat unexpected for Swift Jr.

This is not scientific!

"The United States will soon announce to the outside world that they will hand over Iraq's oil facilities to the local people in batches..." Huang He said lightly, spit out an extremely shocking news!

(End of this chapter)