March 1674, 3, Edo, Japan.

From 1633 to 1639, the Japanese general Tokugawa Iemitsu issued five decrees prohibiting foreign traffic and trade (that is, the lock-up order), which opened Japan's 200-year lock-up period. These bans not only banned the Spanish and Portuguese Entering Japan also prohibits Japanese from going to sea at will.

Of course, Japan's trade relations with foreign countries were not completely suspended, but they were only allowed to be carried out with specific targets, including trade with the Dutch in Dejima, Nagasaki, and the Ming people also had trade in Nagasaki.In addition, the Tsushima Domain and Korea, the Satsuma Domain and the Ryukyu Kingdom, and the Matsumae Domain and Ezo also had trade relations.

In the first year of Wanzhi (1658), Qi State passed the Satsuma War and subsequently obtained the right to trade directly with Japan, but the scope was limited to Nagasaki just like the Netherlands and Ming Dynasty.

But in terms of commercial activities, the Tokugawa shogunate did not set too many restrictions on the Ming and Qi people at the beginning.However, with the increase in trade exchanges and frequent personnel coming and going, in the tenth year of Kanbun (1670), the Tokugawa shogunate built two buildings of about 1 ping (Japanese area measurement unit, 3.3057 ping is approximately equal to [-] square meters) of exclusive settlements for the residence of businessmen and their families from the above-mentioned two countries.Because both countries belong to the Chinese civilization, they are both called "Tang people's houses".

The "Tangren House" is surrounded by walls. In order to conform to the customs of the Chinese, there are also religious facilities such as Tianhou Palace, Mazu Temple, Guanyin Hall and Digong Temple.

The reason why the shogunate did this was not only to effectively manage the merchants of the Ming and Qi states, but also to prevent the Catholic faith from infiltrating the Japanese people through other channels.The shogunate learned through various channels that Catholic missionaries were also active in Ming Dynasty, making friends with scholars, spreading teachings, and developing believers; although Qi State imposed certain controls and restrictions on the spread of Catholicism, it did not completely ban it.Therefore, the shogunate prohibited ordinary people from contacting businessmen from the two countries in Japan, except for a very small number of people with special status.

Like the merchants of the Ming and Qi states, there were also Dutch people from Europe who were active in Nagasaki.After Spanish and Portuguese businessmen and missionaries were driven out of Japan, the Dutch replaced them and became the objects of cooperation of the Tokugawa shogunate.The main reason why they were selected was that they had little interest in preaching and only wanted to engage in trade, so they gained the trust of the Tokugawa shogunate.

Even so, Japan is still suspicious of this group of foreigners with blonde hair and blue eyes and very different looks.As early as 1641, the shogunate issued an order requiring them to move from the original trading port of Hirado to Dejima, an artificial island off the coast of Nagasaki.

On Dejima, apart from the water gate leading to the sea, there is only one exit to the mainland of Japan.Moreover, the shogunate stipulated that the Dutch must stay inside and could not leave at will.In addition, except for a few people such as officials, translators and prostitutes, ordinary Japanese were not allowed to enter Dejima at will.

However, the Dutch have a chance to leave Dejima regularly.According to the regulations of the shogunate, in addition to engaging in trade in Nagasaki, the Dutch must also visit Edo regularly to provide overseas intelligence to the shogunate.According to later generations, the Dutch played the role of special correspondents from all over the world for the shogunate.

Through this channel, the shogunate under the "locked state" transition can grasp the movements of the outside world in real time, especially news from Southeast Asia and Europe.

Tadaaki Abe, the former shogunate veteran, knelt and sat on the soft bed with his eyes slightly closed. He seemed to be half asleep, and there was no response for a long time, which made Grene Ward, the senior manager of the Dutch East India Company in Japan, stare at him. For a long time, I wondered whether the old Japanese man who was over seventy was listening to his narration, and looked suspiciously at the translator on the side.

"...Thank you very much Mr. Ward for bringing us the news about Europe." Tadaaki Abe opened his eyes and nodded to Ward with a smile. Complete. Regarding your trade with us in Japan, we will continue to give you exclusive rights. In this way, you don’t have to worry too much....By the way, you have been operating in the Nanyang region for a long time, and you must know Qi Guo better. .Can you tell me something about the situation in this country?"

"Qi State?... Which aspect of Qi State do you want to know about?" Ward looked at Tadaki Abe in surprise when he heard this question.

At present, in terms of market share in Japan's foreign trade activities, the country with the absolute advantage is Ming, followed by Qi, and the Netherlands is the least.Of course, these data are official statistics, and the smuggling trade in Ryukyu, Satsuma, Changzhou, and Yunzhou led by Qi State has not been counted.Coupled with these abnormal trade channels, Qi's trade volume with Japan is likely to slightly exceed Ming's total trade volume.

It stands to reason that, for such an important trading partner, as the most important minister of the shogun before, it is impossible for Tadaaki Abe to not understand at all.Therefore, Ward was a little surprised by his question.

"Talk about the military strength of the Qi State." Abe Tadaaki said with a smile: "If this country breaks out with other countries, how many troops can it mobilize?"

"Uh..." Ward thought for a while, picked up the teacup on the low table, drank it in one gulp, and then licked his lips, "Qi has the largest and most powerful sea power in the Far East. According to our East India The company estimates that the Qi State Navy has a population of around 4000, equipped with at least 76 to [-] professional warships, well, it may also reach [-]. Among them, there are about four warships equipped with more than [-] artillery pieces. There are about ten warships, and there are ten warships equipped with more than [-] artillery pieces. In addition, there are hundreds of armed merchant ships with certain combat effectiveness in their country. If the scale of the war expands, I believe that with Qi’s mobilization mechanism, these armed merchant ships will be requisitioned as a combat vessel as quickly as possible."

"That is to say, once the Qi country breaks out with other countries, they can dispatch hundreds of large and medium-sized armed ships?" Abe Tadaaki was a little moved.

"In theory." Ward said with a smile: "But I think that in the entire Far East, and even in the vast Indian Ocean and the Western Pacific, Qi alone can defeat any country or country with its naval power." Sea challenges initiated by local forces. Yes, Qi has this confidence and ability.”

"..." Abe Tadaaki remained silent for a while, and the expression on his face became a little dignified, "Then..., what about their army?"

"Oh, compared to Qi's navy, the size of their army is a bit small. The number of Qi's army will not exceed [-], maybe around seven or eight thousand." Ward said: "But their army training They are well-trained and have a very high combat effectiveness. It is said that their Musketeers conduct live ammunition shooting training with at least [-] rounds of projectiles every year. You must know that in our Europe, soldiers in many countries do not have such a high standard of live ammunition shooting training every year. Well, If you can exceed ten rounds of buckshot, it is considered a very high standard of training."

European live ammunition shooting training standards, not to mention relatively low in the 17th century, even at the beginning of the 19th century, when military technology was greatly improved, did not improve much. Around 1805, Tsarist Russian soldiers generally received lead bullets based on the standard of 3 bullets per person per year. Only hunters who needed accurate shooting could get 6 lead bullets per year.

After Napoleon swept across Europe, Tsarist Russia gritted its teeth and re-established shooting standards in 1808, stipulating that "guard regiments and regular regiments, according to the first two rows of soldiers, each consumes 5 rounds of lead bullets per year, and the third row of soldiers consumes 8 rounds per year per person." Lead bullets" standard for live ammunition training.

The training standards of the Napoleonic Legion are not much stronger, and the French army usually only conducts 6 rounds of live ammunition shooting training every year.The Prussians are more stingy. A regiment (about 1700 people) has 4125 rounds of live ammunition for a year.The European Army during the Napoleonic Wars usually cramped their feet for assault training before the war, increasing the amount of bullet training to dozens of rounds.

As for the Japanese army at this time, of course there are firearms, but both in terms of quantity and technical quality, they are far behind this era, and even worse than the Taiko period (Toyotomi Hideyoshi).

Otherwise, the Qisa War that took place before the sixteenth year would not have greatly shocked the shogunate.A strong southwestern feudal clan, in front of the Qi State, was so vulnerable. It took less than half a month from the opponent's landing in Kagoshima to forcing the Satsuma clan to surrender, and the battle damage was minimal.

Qi's powerful gunboats, sharp firearms, and one-sided battle situation all made the shogun who was watching the battle secretly startled.As a result, when Qi came to Edo to negotiate trade matters, the shogunate quickly changed its attitude and agreed very simply, and gave them the same trading conditions as the Ming people and the Dutch.

Of course, the shogunate was only a little "shocked" by the power shown by the firearms, and it would not be afraid of Qi State because of this.Because, in their view, a firearms battle is like a bow and arrow, and there are only three arrows before the battle.If the samurai were brave and suffered some casualties, as long as they rushed to the front, they still had to rely on swords to decide the outcome between each other.

It is ridiculous to say that the reason why the shogunate has this understanding is that Japan has been at peace for many years, and the most recent war was the Battle of Wenlu Qingchang (that is, the Wanli Korean War) that occurred more than 70 years ago. For the application of firearms, not many people in China are familiar with it.

"Oh, Qi has an army of less than 1 people." When Abe Tadaaki heard Ward's words, his expression was slightly relaxed.The strength of the Qi State is nothing more than the cannons of the giant ships on the sea.

In this way, Japan does not need to worry about being threatened by the Qi State on the mainland.

Abe Tadaaki retired from the old middle school as early as the sixth year of Kanbun (1666). He no longer regarded matters and gradually faded out of the power center of the shogunate.But in October last year, he heard that the Shaoqing of Qi State Honglu Temple led a delegation to visit Japan. When meeting with General Tokugawa Ietsuna who conquered the barbarians, he proposed that Japan add a few more trading ports in addition to the existing Nagasaki Port, so that Better promote the trade between Japan and Qiqihar.

In this regard, Tokugawa Iezuna directly rejected it face-to-face, and stated that the "lock-up order" is the main guiding principle of the shogunate's foreign policy and no changes are allowed.In addition, the general also severely reprimanded the smuggling trade in Ryukyu, Satsuma, Changzhou, and Ezo, which was secretly manipulated by the Qi State, and demanded that the Qi State must immediately stop this kind of trade without the permission of the shogunate.

It is said that during the negotiation process, the attitudes of both parties were very fierce, and the atmosphere was full of strong smell of gunpowder.In order to maintain the dignity of the general and the prestige of the shogunate, Tokugawa Iezuna once threatened the people of Qi, declaring that they would severely crack down on the above-mentioned "informal trading practices". Being regarded as a pirate will be punished by death.

The shogunate hates Qiguo's trade restrictions and smuggling, because the continuous expansion of unequal trade activities between the two sides has suddenly accelerated the outflow of Japanese silver, far exceeding that of more than 20 years ago.

The export of a large amount of silver caused serious difficulties for the shogunate to mint silver coins, and the difficulty of minting coins by the shogunate had an extremely important impact on the domestic market and economic order.

Once upon a time, Japan was one of the largest silver-producing countries in the world, and the mines of Iwami, Akita, and Sado produced a huge amount of silver.It is roughly estimated that from the 16th century to the 17th century, the silver produced in Japan accounted for 20% of the world's output. It can be said that the Japanese at that time were a country sitting on the "Mountain of Gold and Silver".

With money, it is natural to buy, buy, buy.At that time, Japan was also very dependent on Chinese goods. "Most of what Japan needs is produced in China. For example, the mats in the room must be clothed, and Chang'an weaves in Hangzhou; women must make up powder, and fans and lacquers must be made of gold and silver." Foil is known to be made in Wulin. It is like the porcelain of Rao, the silk of the lake, the silk of Zhang, and the cotton of pine, and it is especially important in the other country."

According to conservative estimates, from 1600 to 1647, the silver exported from Japan was between 7000 million taels and [-] million taels, most of which went to Ming Dynasty.

However, the good times did not last long. By the 17s, the domestic silver mines in Japan were gradually exhausted, and the silver stock also decreased sharply, which affected the rule and management of Japan by the shogunate. This was unacceptable to the rulers.

Therefore, starting from the middle of the 17th century, the shogunate, in addition to continuing to increase the implementation of the "Secretary Order", also began to take strict measures to control the outflow of silver. It came into effect the following year.

In January last year, the shogunate also stipulated the value of foreign goods imported into Japan every year, that is, "Chinese merchant ships 4000 guanmu, Qi Guo 3000 guanmu, Dutch merchant ships 2000 guanmu, a total of 9000 guanmu (33750 kilograms, equivalent to about 90 taels) )silver."

Since Japan has stipulated the total amount of imports, the quantity of goods imported into the Japanese market by various countries is naturally subject to strict restrictions.Those various smuggling trades that are free from the control of the shogunate have become thorns in the eyes of the Tokugawa shogunate, and they want to get rid of them quickly.Qiguo took the necessary tough measures in terms of foreign trade, which became a reasonable choice that Tokugawa Iezuna had to make.

As a former assistant government veteran, Abe Tadaaki had a certain understanding of Qi Guo.He is very worried, because the trade dispute will provoke a strong reaction from this maritime power, and it may even lead to a war.

Therefore, when the Dutch East India Company paid a routine visit to the shogunate to report news from Europe and other parts of the world, he specially summoned Grene Ward to the shogunate to inquire about Qi's military strength.

"Will Japan go to war with Qi?"

Even if he is a political idiot, Ward understands the meaning behind the other party's inquiring about Qi's military strength.Therefore, before leaving, he couldn't help asking his own question.

"..." Abe Tadaaki shook his head, "Whether there will be a war between us and Qi State will depend on Qi State."

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