I collect gold fingers in the heavens

Chapter 313 Fragment of the Future, Crazy Plan

Pork has an unusual status in our country.

my country's population accounts for about 19.0% of the world's total population, and its pork consumption accounts for 49.6% of the world's pork consumption. Pork accounts for more than [-]% of China's domestic meat production and consumption.

Calculated, a family of three eats almost one pig a year.

The status of pork in the national eating habits of our country can be seen.

Strong fluctuations in pork prices will also have a strong impact on the country's economy.

From the information he received in the future, Wu Siyuan knew the reason why the price of pork soared——

swine fever!

African swine fever!

This is a severe swine fever virus imported from abroad.

[African swine fever] is an acute, febrile, and highly contagious infectious disease of pigs caused by African swine fever virus. The virus can be inactivated under the condition of "60°C + 30 minutes", and the incidence rate is usually 40%- Between 85%, but the mortality rate can reach 100% after the onset.

[African swine fever virus] generally invades pigs through the oral cavity and upper respiratory tract, or is bitten by poisonous soft ticks.

Pork, meat products in epidemic areas, pork residues in international airports, seaports and other places may carry the virus.

一般潜伏期为5-15日，但急性病例只需3-4天，感染上急性型非洲猪瘟的猪一般会在2-10日内死亡。

All of the above are the information Wu Siyuan received from the future.

从2018年8月沈阳的第一起【非洲猪瘟】病例起，截至2019年1月14日，国内曾有24个省份发生过家猪和野猪疫情，累计扑杀生猪91.6万头。

The resulting decline in pig production capacity is even more immeasurable. Among them, the number of fertile sows in March fell by 3%, a decrease of 21 million heads compared with the same period last year, which is the largest drop in history.

The production capacity of pigs and sows above has declined, and the figure is already very huge. [African swine fever] has indeed caused a very huge negative impact.But the actual situation is probably even more severe and exaggerated than the reported data.

Whether it is a pig farmer or a large-scale breeding company, [African swine fever] is treated equally, which has brought about a sharp drop in the number of live pigs slaughtered, and a sharp rise in the price of social live pigs.

Although the country has released a lot of [reserve pork], the amount of hundreds of thousands of tons or millions of tons of pork is just a drop in the bucket for the annual consumption of more than [-] million tons of pork.

Pork prices eased slightly, but quickly skyrocketed.

At that time, the whole society was talking about [pig], and many families chose not to eat pork or eat less pork.

...The information received in the future flashed through Wu Siyuan's mind.

Wu Siyuan tapped his fingers on the table lightly. After knowing about the pork crisis a year later, he thought he should do something!
He asked his assistant to bring [Super Group] relevant information about the pig business.

[Chaoqun Group] currently has a [pig farm] with an annual output of [-] pigs. Because all the pigs are fed with special pastures grown by [Lingquan Organic Liquid Fertilizer], all the pigs are high-quality pigs —— [Sanweixiang] pig】.

According to the current market price, these 14.85 [Sanweixiang pigs] can bring in an income of [-] billion.

The cost of a catty of pork will not exceed 5 yuan, so the gross profit can reach 13.5 billion.

But this is fine pork.

High-end pork!

Different!
How can ordinary people be willing to eat pork at such a price!
Ordinary people still eat ordinary commercial pigs.

[Chaoqun Group] has a plan to produce ordinary commercial pigs, and plans to build sixteen [pig farms] to achieve the goal of slaughtering [-] million pigs a year.

This plan has been advanced in an orderly manner, the contract has been signed, and the engineering team has also settled in and built it.

If this plan is realized, the hog business of [Chaoqun Group] will usher in a boom, accounting for 0.77% of the nation's hog production with the size of a company.

Of course, this data is not comparable to those companies that have worked in this industry for many years.

Like [Wen’s Group], which started out raising chickens, in December 2016 alone, there were 12 commercial pigs for slaughter, and the number of slaughtered pigs for the whole year reached 169.30.

However, [Wen's Group] costs about 6 yuan per catty of pork, which is not as good as [Chaoqun Group].

[Chaoqun Group] Compared with them, in terms of the number of pigs raised, it is a little brother.

But Wu Siyuan has self-knowledge.

It is easy to build a [pig farm], but to operate a [pig farm] in a healthy manner, many factors are involved, and human factors account for a large proportion of it.

[Pig Farm] Pigs are raised, but people are managed!
The relevant professional manpower needed for sixteen [pig farms] is not a small number.

So far, none of the sixteen [pig farms] has recruited enough personnel, and the human resources department of [Super Group] is recruiting socially and training new ones with old ones.

But as long as the sixteen [pig farms] are officially in operation, the fission in the future will be simple, and the relevant personnel will not be as stretched as they are now.

Although it is not comparable to the number of other breeding companies, for the current [Chaoqun Group], the annual slaughter target of 550 million heads is just right.

This was Wu Siyuan's original idea.

But now that he knows about the [African swine fever epidemic] that will occur in the future, and the soaring price of pork brought about by the swine fever epidemic, ordinary people have been reduced to the point where it is difficult to find a pig, and Wu Siyuan suddenly feels that the annual slaughter of 550 million pigs The goal is really too conservative.

After a little thought, he made a decision.

He called Huang Yuping, the president of the group, Guan Xuelie, who was in charge of the agriculture and animal husbandry business department, and related senior executives, and held a brief but important meeting in his chairman's office.

Wu Siyuan directly told them at the meeting, "I was looking at the information on the domestic pig industry recently. We originally planned to have 550 [pig farms] with an annual output of [-] million pigs, but I think there are still some problems. Conservative."

"The domestic hog market is booming, I think we need to be bold."

Wu Siyuan's speech this time came too suddenly, which caught the executives present a little off guard.

After a while, relevant scholars asked, "Wu Dong, what do you mean, we need to build a new [pig farm]?"

"That's right!" Wu Siyuan nodded.

Guan Xuelie frowned. After pondering for a while, he said, "Wu Dong, tell me frankly that pig breeding has its own cycle."

"[Pig cycle] refers to the periodic fluctuation of pig prices. The principle is similar to the general spider web model. In essence, it is an economic operation mode in which profit is used to regulate changes in supply and demand, and finally reflected in price fluctuations."

"The prerequisite for [pig cycle] is a decentralized breeding environment, the motivation is driven by profit, the core is cyclical changes, and the performance situation is a cycle of mismatching supply and demand."

“The circular track of the [pig cycle] generally follows: the price of pigs falls—a large number of sows are eliminated—the supply of live pigs decreases—the price of pigs rises—the stock of sows increases—the supply of live pigs increases—the price of pigs falls. This is the market The speculative effect shown by the subject's pursuit of breeding profits."

"In layman's terms, when the price of meat is high, the farmers are attracted, and they flock to them. The number of sows on hand will increase greatly, and the supply of live pigs will increase, but this will lead to a decline in the price of pigs. When the price of meat drops, the number of pigs raised The households will leave the farm, a large number of sows will be eliminated, the supply of live pigs will decrease, and the price of meat will rise instead, and a new round of cycle will start.”

"It can be said that the pig farming industry is one year of profit, one year of balance, and one year of loss!"

"Wu Dong, we can say that we are now in the third [pig cycle]. Since 2014, our country has begun to implement strict environmental protection and ban breeding regulations, and strive to increase the scale of the pig breeding industry, resulting in a large number of free-range pigs. Households withdrew from the market, and the stock of live pigs and fertile sows began to enter a continuous decline channel.”

"After bottoming out in May 2014, the price of live pigs went up all the way until June 5. Among them, the swine erysipelas outbreak in the first half of 2016 played a role in fueling the flames. By June 6, the price of pork had reached its peak. The historic sky-high price of 2015 yuan/kg has increased by an astonishing 2016% from the lowest point."

"It's a rising year in the [hog cycle]."

"However, extremes lead to opposites. The price of pork has stimulated the impulse of relevant breeding enterprises to replenish their stalls, and especially the improvement of the efficiency of large factories. I have observed that enterprises like [Wen's Group], on the one hand, the weight of slaughtered pigs has increased significantly. In the state where the number of pigs has not changed or even declined, the total pork output has increased instead; on the other hand, the efficiency of sows has improved. Killing numbers were not significantly affected."

"This will inevitably lead to a downward trend in pork prices in the next year or two."

"Although our company's breeding cost is lower than other farming enterprises, the depreciation cost of a large number of equipment and buildings, the labor cost of breeding and other costs are also exaggerated. In addition, the large number of pigs in our group will also lead to The price of pigs has fallen further, and in the downward cycle of pig prices, there is a great possibility that it will bring losses to our group. He opened his mouth and came, speaking to Wu Siyuan with certainty.

"Guan Zong, you are right! If we invest a lot of money in the pig breeding industry to expand, it is an expansion against the trend and violates the law of pig cycle development."

"But let me tell you a story."

"South Korea's DRAM business, in fact, has the same so-called cycle as my country's pig farming. In the 20s, the DRAM market was in a bad mood. By the end of 80, Samsung Semiconductor's cumulative loss had reached 1986 million U.S. dollars."

"In this case, the idea of ​​a normal company is to reduce clothing and food, and related companies in other countries are doing the same. Many companies in the United States and Japan have reduced production capacity or withdrawn from the market, but South Korea's Samsung is not the case. It relies on government support. Make counter-cyclical investments.”

"In the end, you have also seen that South Korea's DRAM business is the world's number one. It can be said that South Korea's Samsung's semiconductor business is shaking, and the whole world will be chilling."

"Of course, South Korea's Samsung's technology accumulation in the DRAM business also plays a big role."

"The truth is actually the same. Although we don't have relevant support from the government, the [audition] project has brought us a steady stream of profits. Relying on these profits, we can also develop counter-cyclically, strike late and seize opportunities."

After Wu Siyuan said that, other executives, including Guan Xuelie, have nothing to say!
Moreover, since Wu Siyuan started the company, he has never made a single mistake in any major strategic decision.

He has enough authority in the company.

The reason why Guan Xuelie stood up and said so many things was nothing more than standing in his position and stating his interests to Wu Siyuan. As for the final decision, it was still Wu Siyuan's decision.

After pondering for a while, Guan Xuelie began to get into the mood, thinking about expanding investment in pig breeding. He asked Wu Siyuan, "Wu Dong, how much do you think we will increase the number of annual slaughter?"

Wu Siyuan had an idea in his mind. He originally wanted to say 7 million heads, but this is unscientific. Even if Wu Siyuan used his golden fingers, it would be difficult to achieve it. The current national annual production is only about [-] million heads.

Not to mention [-] million heads, even if it is halved, it will be difficult for [Chaoqun Group] to produce [-] million heads a year.

So Wu Siyuan could only settle for the next best thing, saying, "[-] million to [-] million heads! No cap!"

All the executives present were taken aback. This was no longer a matter of money. The manpower and material resources involved behind it were a huge system project, which could not be solved simply with money.

You know, [Chaoqun Group] has set such a high goal, but the annual slaughtering volume of the existing [pig farms] is only [-] pigs.

The [pig farm] that was invested and built before, the fastest one, took a month to start breeding.

Guan Xuelie swallowed his saliva, and said to Wu Siyuan, "Wu Dong, this goal is too high, can you take it step by step. The plan will take 2 to 3 years, and I assure you, it will be completed with quality and quantity." .”

Wu Siyuan also wanted to give Guan Xuelie time, but the future [African swine fever] would not give Wu Siyuan time.

In more than a year, [African swine fever] will strike aggressively.

Before that, [Super Group]'s annual pig production must reach the level that Wu Siyuan wants, in order to share the country's worries, and gain enough influence in this epidemic. Of course, the [Super Group] obtained Excess profits are additional.

It is not that Wu Siyuan has not considered cutting off the coming [African swine fever epidemic] from the source.

But after thinking about it later, he still felt that it was impossible. As long as there is still a shortage of pork in the country, the country will continue to import pork from abroad.

Even if the country does not import, but there is a price difference between international and domestic raw pork, domestic smugglers will not miss this opportunity to make a fortune.

And in smuggling, [African swine fever virus] will visit the country and spread unceremoniously.

That is impossible to guard against.

Wu Siyuan sighed secretly, and then said firmly to Guan Xuelie, "Mr. Guan, this is not a discussion, this is a task!"

Guan Xuelie is the veteran of the company, and he has feelings for the company. After hearing Wu Siyuan's tough words, he still did not retreat, but continued to persuade Wu Siyuan.

If it was Su Shixian, he would never do this.

From this point of view, the personalities of the two are very different.

Guan Xuelie was still very worried and said, "Wu Dong, I hope you will think about it carefully. It is too risky to increase the annual slaughtering quantity to such a high target all of a sudden. Whether it is external or internal, if there is a sudden If something happens, the loss is not something that can be solved by hundreds of millions, but billions, tens of billions!"

(End of this chapter)