Daming Yuanfu

Chapter 1513 Predetermined Strategy
"It's hard to get off the tiger?" Liu Xin frowned slightly, and asked, "You mean the war has already reached that point, and in addition, Toyotomi Hideyoshi has been boasting too much before, and the result of the negotiation cannot let all the forces in Japan, including his own. Satisfied, so even if my body can no longer hold on, I still have to continue the war?"

"I think all of what you said is true, and I'm afraid there are other reasons." Gao Wushi said that there were other reasons, but it seemed that he hadn't sorted it out completely, and said slowly: "I think about it later. Think about it, although Toyotomi Hideyoshi's life is considered legendary, but he has at least three major failures in his life."

Liu Xin smiled slightly: "Three major failures? Let me guess first... Killing Toyotomi Hideji is probably one of them?"

"Yes." Gao Wushi said: "Killing Toyotomi Hideji is his third big failure in my opinion. However, there are two points before that, which we have just talked about: first, to recruit security instead of seeking peace ; The second is to conquer Korea. However, in my opinion, these two actually have a certain similarity, that is, they all stem from Toyotomi Hideyoshi's own lack of martial arts."

"Toyotomi Hideyoshi, who unified Japan, in your opinion lacks martial arts?" Liu Xin seemed somewhat surprised.

"That's right, especially the series of recruitments. I originally thought that the recruitment was a choice made by Toyotomi Hideyoshi because he was better at political strategy, but now that I think about it carefully, I feel that these methods are probably not 'choices'. He was really just forced to."

Liu Xin said: "I would like to hear high opinions."

Gao Wushi said: "First of all, from Toyotomi Hideyoshi's standpoint, the matter of recruiting security is really a disaster. Of the five elders, three of them are foreign daimyos.

The stone height of these five people is 256 million stone in Tokugawa, 180 million stone in Maori and Ryogawa, and 120 million stone in Uesugi.Except for Uesugi, any big boss's fief Shi Gao is not much less than Toyotomi Hideyoshi himself, and even Tokugawa Ieyasu is nominally taller than his Shi Gao.

The remaining Ukita and Maeda are considered to be relatively close to the Toyotomi family, so let me count them as genealogists.But what about the strength of these two?One is 60 shi and the other is 83 shi. Compared with the five elders in terms of size, they are not at the same level at all.

And Hideyoshi's handling of this matter... well, it's actually very kind.That is, as long as the other party is willing to recruit, the territory will remain unchanged, and Toyotomi Hideyoshi only needs a nominal obedience.

In other words, if the Shimadzu and Hojo families don’t try to provoke him, and the Date family doesn’t sit on the wall, then there will be three more foreign strong vassals worth more than 100 million shi. The territory of Kyushu that had been conquered at that time was included. The reason for this calculation is that if the Shimadzu family accepted Hideyoshi’s request and stopped attacking, then according to Hideyoshi’s style of work, the previous achievements of the Shimadzu family could be preserved. ]
Among them, the Tokugawa family was also a daimyo who owned the five kingdoms of Mikawa, Toe, Suruga, Kai, and Shinano before being changed. It is estimated that the territory is about 150 million shi.

This means that even if Toyotomi's family line is preserved without any problems at all, it is difficult to guarantee that there will be no problems in the future. However, if one or two such foreign strong vassals join forces, the Toyotomi family may not be able to guarantee that they will be able to withstand [Note: The entire Toyotomi family’s territory before Hideyoshi’s death was about 600 million koku, including Hideyoshi’s fiefdom, and Hideyoshi’s hiding place should be less than 200 million koku], and the strength of 100 million koku is not a problem at all, it can be See the case of Oshu Fujiwara.

When I watched some related Dahe dramas back then, I regretted that the Western Army lost the Battle of Sekigahara, but now I think it's a bit ridiculous.Not to mention that during the battle of Sekigahara, the Western Army itself had no possibility of victory. If you take ten thousand steps back, even if Sekigahara wins, what are you going to do next?To Nagato to open a new Maori shogunate?
Ieyasu was able to play various operations afterwards, isn't it also because Hideyoshi gave it to him?But is this because Hideyoshi trusts Ieyasu so much?Obviously not, it was just because the two largest foreign daimyos at that time were Mori and Tokugawa. In comparison, Tokugawa was more trustworthy than Mori. Hideyoshi did this purely as the lesser of two evils.

It's not that Hideyoshi is ignorant of this problem. He may also want to support some pro-vassal and genealogical daimyos to defend the Toyotomi family, but as I have mentioned before, the Toyotomi family is already sparsely populated, and it is impossible to send out a few. , and most of other people's territories are blocked.

At the same time, Sancheng is a fighter. During Hojo's conquest, he can surround a ninja castle for a long time. If he can make some military achievements, let Hideyoshi seal him a territory and make him a big name. After Hideyoshi's death The weight of speaking can also be larger.

What is the result?In the end, Hideyoshi came up with a way to confuse military achievements and fiefdoms with his own people, which was to fight North Korea. The result of this bad idea is obvious: that is a dog with an owner.

So in the final analysis of these things, Hideyoshi and his core ruling team are not good at military affairs.If he had the military capability of Nobunaga's level, he wouldn't need to do any recruiting. He would directly flatten all non-direct lineages and establish a centralized government. This would definitely make a big difference in the situation.

Although Ieyasu is still a feudal system, he has done much more safely than him in this regard. Of course, Ieyasu has not been able to completely eradicate the roots, and finally turned into a catastrophe. "

Liu Xin spread her hands together: "I'm a little curious. Judging from your introduction, Toyotomi Hideyoshi's martial arts does not seem to be very... outstanding. But at the same time, you said that the five old systems he implemented were also failures. It can be said that he only saw the benefits of success, but did not see the consequences of failure, plus the last point of rashly killing Toyotomi Hideji-doesn't this mean that Toyotomi Hideyoshi is not good at even his political strategy?
In an analogy to our China, the end of the Warring States period and the realization of unification are achievements of Qin Shihuang's level!Considering Toyotomi Hideyoshi's background, he can almost be regarded as the first emperor of Japan. Why is it all a failure according to your analysis? "

"Well, good question." Gao Wushi smiled wryly and said, "From a national perspective, killing Hideji must be a big failure, but as a 'person', Hideyoshi cannot be completely blamed for this matter. But any individual , Everyone has selfishness, besides Hideyoshi was also old at the time, who of us can guarantee that we can hold back our selfishness and not let our own son inherit Hideyoshi's position?

It's just that this brings us back to the old problem, that Toyotomi's family is too small.If Toyotomi Hideyoshi could have more than a dozen sons in his lifetime like Tokugawa Ieyasu, then this would not be a problem at all.I can only say that ensuring that you have a healthy body and having a stable or even sufficient successor is also an important ability of being a Warring States daimyo.At this point, Hideyoshi was really blown away by Ieyasu. "

Liu Xin tilted her head and asked, "Then how do you explain Toyotomi Hideyoshi's success?"

Gao Wushi twitched his lips, and asked back: "What is it that Jinghua can take over Southern Xinjiang?"

Liu Xin was taken aback: "What do you mean?"

Gao Wushi smiled, and said again: "Then let me ask you this, what did Jinghua rely on to win Annan?"

Liu Xin said somewhat inexplicably: "It depends on Jinghua's strong financial resources and the support of elite Ding, as well as chieftain Cenhuang."

"The premise of elite family members is actually strong financial resources." Gao Wushi corrected it slightly, and then said: "Toyotomi Hideyoshi's ability performance is similar to that before Jinghua took Annan, relying on controlling strong commercial financial resources, and then This is the basis to win over some allies and form a strength advantage over its hostile forces.

Gao Wushi smiled and said: "The reason why he has been in Osaka for a long time is precisely because Osaka is currently the largest commercial city in Japan. And after you mentioned this, I suddenly remembered another thing, which can better explain Toyotomi Hideyoshi's love for ' Power' cognition."

Liu Xin asked, "What's the matter?"

"Toyotomi Hideyoshi's plan after conquering Ming Dynasty." Gao Wushi suddenly couldn't help laughing, and said: "He thinks that after conquering Ming Dynasty, the emperor can stay in Beijing. He himself... guess where he plans to stay?"

Liu Xin thought for a while, then said hesitantly, "Nanjing?"

"No, he plans to stay in Ningbo."

Liu Xin's eyes widened immediately, and she asked in surprise, "Ningbo? Why?"

"Because in his cognition, Ningbo has long been an important trade port in China (especially trade with Japan), so he believes that sitting in Ningbo can control Ming's trade, then control wealth, and ultimately control the world—just like The same thing he did in Japan."

"I..." Liu Xin put her hand on her forehead, shook her head and said, "For a while, I didn't know how to evaluate it. This plan is really too ridiculous. Are you sure it's true?"

"This statement does not come from any folklore, it has a real origin." Gao Wushi said: "It was recorded in the "Organizational Documents" by Toyotomi Hideyoshi's close servant Yamanaka Toshi." [Note: This source is "The Battle of Hideyoshi and Bunroku Keicho", Nagoya Castle Museum, Saga Prefecture, Japan, 2007, p. 43]
Gao Wushi smiled again, and continued: "As the official penholder of the Hideyoshi era, Yamanaka Changtoshi was in charge of writing the sequel of "Taipingji", "Medieval Japan's Chaos", which can be said to be the closest to the national level. the presence of historians.

At the same time, in the last few years when Changtoshi Yamanaka made additions and revisions to his own works, Hideyoshi was dead, so I personally think that Yamanaka's records of Hideyoshi are relatively credible and objective.Therefore, I think the rumor that 'Hideyoshi planned to move the base camp to Ningbo' is basically credible. "

"He really thinks that Ningbo is China's main trading city?" Liu Xin still seemed a little unbelievable.

"Ningbo has an extremely important position in China's maritime field, especially in terms of tomorrow's maritime relations. Since the Song Dynasty, Ningbo has been a key port leading the trade between China and Japan.

But the reason why Ningbo is an unavoidable pain in Toyotomi Hideyoshi’s mind, I guess there is another reason, that is, an event that affected the views of the two countries on maritime issues, and eventually affected their respective national fortunes: Ningbo Chaos. "

"Ningbo Rebellion?" Liu Xin frowned, "I don't seem to have heard of it."

"Our history textbooks at that time didn't seem to take this matter very seriously. It seems that I didn't learn it at that time." Gao Wushi coughed lightly and said: "But the Ningbo Rebellion was indeed the most serious diplomatic incident in the entire Ming Dynasty. One. At that time, in February of the fourth year of Jiajing (1524), Song Suqing, the deputy envoy of the Japanese Hosokawa fleet, was executed.

This incident directly led to the abolition of the Fujian and Zhejiang shipping departments by the Ming court five years later, leaving only one shipping department in Guangdong. Japanese disaster' planted the foreshadowing.

In 1536, Ouchi Yoshitaka, who controlled the northern part of Kyushu and the Chugoku region, began to send out ships again. In 1551, Yilong was destroyed by his vassal Tao Qingxian (Daning Temple Change), and the successor Ouchi Yoshinaga sent an envoy to Daming in 1556, requesting to resume trade, but Daming rejected Yoshinaga as a usurper.

In 1557, Yoshinaga was destroyed by Mori Moto, and the Ouchi family was completely destroyed. Therefore, the hope of reopening the trade was completely cut off. Tomorrow, the trade will be transferred to Shuangyu off the coast of Ningbo-you must have heard this name from your father. ——Or private trade and smuggling trade were carried out in the Zhoushan Islands, and the coastal wealthy families, officials and businessmen colluded with each other, and gradually evolved into a large-scale smuggling group, which also started the era of Japanese pirates in the later period.

I have seen a map of East Asia drawn by the Japanese before. This map still has a rough outline, but the size of the country is quite distorted.Generally speaking, Daming has become smaller, while North Korea and Japan have grown a lot.

On this map, whether starting from Sakai Port (near Osaka) controlled by the Hosokawa family or Hakata Port (in later Fukuoka) controlled by the Ouchi family, among the three major ports of Ming Dynasty at that time: Guangzhou, Fuzhou, and Ningbo, Ningbo Port was is the most recent. "

"Oh, I understand, I understand." At this moment, Liu Xin finally realized something, she stretched out her green finger and gestured a few times in the air, and said: "In Japan at this time, except for the Shimadzu family of the Satsuma clan who is far away from the center of Japanese power, Except for the Nagamune and Gabu of Shikoku Island, the top Japanese officials, including Toyotomi Hideyoshi, knew almost nothing about the ocean.

These people want to travel across the oceans to conquer North Korea and even Ming Dynasty. What they can inherit is the sailing experience of Japanese pirates and merchants who smuggled and plundered during the 70 years of maritime severance—under such circumstances, when Toyotomi Hideyoshi thinks When I need to build a base camp that is the lifeline of supply in Japan, how can I not choose Ningbo? "

Gao Wushi laughed: "You understand when it comes to military affairs?"

"No, I think I understand it as soon as I talk about geography-this is called a profession." Liu Xin blinked and teased herself.Then he paused, and asked again: "Okay, I think we have already speculated about Toyotomi Hideyoshi's situation, so here comes the question: What useful information can we capture from these speculations?"

"Is there useful information? I think there are several points." Gao Yushi said: "First, Toyotomi Hideyoshi controls Japan largely by financial resources rather than combat power.

Second, a large part of the reason why Toyotomi Hideyoshi launched the war was that his subordinates had no rewards, and he had nothing to do with Tokugawa and others, so he had to find a way through aggression.

Third, after the death of Toyotomi Hideyoshi, if there is no Hideji, Tokugawa Ieyasu is bound to rise, and the Western Army cannot defeat him. "

Liu Xin thought for a while, then frowned and said, "With Toyotomi Hideji, the Western Army will be able to defeat the Eastern Army? I remember you said just now that Toyotomi Hideji was defeated by Tokugawa Ieyasu before, and he even got a match. A famous general."

"I didn't say that if you have a show, you will definitely win. What I said is that if you don't have a show, you will definitely lose."

Gao Wushi snorted softly, and said, "During the battle of Guanyuan, the Western Army had two biggest problems: one was the well-known discord among the people, and if Xiuji was there, it would at least be better than in history;
The second is that Toyotomi Hideyori and his mother in Osaka Castle did not intervene in the war between the two armies, which caused the "court" of the Toyotomi family to voluntarily give up control of Japan-both in name and in reality. "

"Well... what do you want to do then?"

Gao Wushi stroked his chin, which had no beard at all, and smiled: "I... I want to try it out and see if I can play Borrowing a Dead Soul and Dove Occupation."
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(End of this chapter)