As a mage, I just want to pursue the truth

Chapter 97 Pessimism and Optimism

Young said he was getting excited, and he couldn't stop. He wanted to have a good chat with Cheng Gang about his understanding of semiconductors and the alternative development of domestic semiconductors:
"Next, back to our topic, what are the challenges of the 14 nm lithography machine?"

"Let's talk about FinFET first. FinFET is the 3D MOSFET device structure first proposed by Professor Hu Zhengming, a famous professor at the University of California, Berkeley."

"3D MOSFET achieves performance beyond the previous generation of planar transistors through a three-dimensional structure. Intel took the lead in commercializing it in 11. But after the 14 nm process, FinFET is no longer as reliable as before."

"First of all, there is an inevitable quantum effect. It is difficult to increase the current of transistors. Even for some materials, the current will become lower. For chips, current means speed."

"Then there is leakage current, which is directly related to power consumption. At such a small node, it is difficult for FinFET to control leakage."

"The last is cost. According to Moore's Law, as nodes are reduced, the cost of a single transistor should decrease."

"But when it comes to the 14nm process, the complicated photolithography process may lead to an increase in the cost of a single transistor."

"SMIC can handle the 14nm process, but why is the stock price so slow?"

"It is because the 14nm process is too difficult, and SMIC's yield rate is not high enough, it is considered half-finished."

Cheng Gang nodded and said: "It's no wonder that SMIC no longer discloses the revenue ratio of 14nm and 28nm processes separately, but continues to expand 28nm production."

Young is very satisfied with Cheng Gang's sensitivity: "Even in the past two years after announcing the mass production of the 14nm process, SMIC still counted the revenue of 14nm and 28nm together, and now it does not even announce the proportion of revenue directly. .”

（扒了中芯国际从2020年和2021年的财报，其营收最大来源是55/65nm制程，而14/28nm营收占比2020年一季度是7.8%，到了2021年一季度占比不增反降变成了6.9%）

Note: This is just to say that SMIC's 14nm is not as good as expected, not that SMIC has not produced a 14nm process.

Young continued: "The difficulty of chip foundry is lower than that of lithography machine."

"SMIC's 14nm process is so difficult, and the 14nm lithography machine will only be more difficult."

"Fatal problems will be encountered in the foundry process, and the lithography machine will not escape."

"A chip requires hundreds of masks and lithography to complete the manufacturing process."

"So lithography is the most important part."

"So a very obvious problem arises, how to ensure that so many photolithography steps can be engraved on the same position on the silicon wafer."

"In the 14nm process, the line width is only a few nanometers."

"If there is a slight mistake, even if there is a slight deviation between the two masks, the entire chip will be scrapped."

"The lithography machine needs to conquer hundreds of mask nano-level positions, and the time it takes is far less optimistic than outsiders imagine."

"Even if the domestic lithography machine is produced, the yield rate will take time to increase."

"Now the lithography machine has to guarantee a production rate of 125 pieces per hour. Otherwise, semiconductor manufacturers will lose money."

"There are too many lessons we need to make up." Young's tone was heartbroken.

Although Young often uses an English name, he is indeed a native of Huaguo, an undergraduate student of Shenhai Jiaotong University.

Cheng Gang sighed: "We can only take one step at a time. For the time being, we only need a 28nm process, which should be able to meet our needs."

"Since SMIC can produce 14nm, it doesn't matter if the price is higher."

Young is also full of emotion: "There are too many things to catch up in the semiconductor field, and it will not be possible to catch up in a while."

"It is not at all what the media has rendered. Buying a lithography machine can solve production problems. It will also take time to debug the lithography machine with a mask and train skilled workers."

Cheng Gang is more optimistic than Young: "I think we are on the right track, relying on Huaguo's vast market to cultivate a complete semiconductor industry chain."

"Of course there are many difficulties, but they can only be overcome one by one."

Young: "You are more optimistic than me. We haven't even finished the 28nm lithography machine yet. Europa's 3nm process is already in sight, not to mention their technology route from 3nm to 1nm has been planned."

"The gap is a bit big."

There is still a word in Young's heart that he can't say. If there is such a big gap, if you want to overtake in a corner, you must open up a new track and use a new technical route.

Otherwise, with the current silicon-based semiconductor industry, Young can't see the hope of overtaking in a corner.

Cheng Gang comforted: "I used to have a similar feeling when I was in the financial industry. There is a gap with foreign countries in many fields, and it seems that there is no chance to catch up."

"Because the compulsory course in the financial industry is risk control, so we always see the risks first, and control the risks when we think about it."

"After joining the industry from the financial world, I think more about what I want to do and how to achieve my goal."

"The perspectives of the financial world and the industrial world are completely different."

"Of course, I can't judge which angle is right. I can only say that I think domestic semiconductors still have good development prospects and future."

"As for the brain-computer connection chip of Kechuang Biology, even if the 14nm process technology is used, foreign manufacturers adopt more advanced chips, and we are confident that the 14nm brain-computer connection chip will be optimized better than the foreign 7nm."

Young nodded: "I have confidence in the brain-computer connection, but what about the AI ​​chip?"

"Computing power is too critical for AI chips, how to make up for the poor computing power?"

Cheng Gang was shocked: "How do you know we are going to make AI chips?"

Young got up and walked around: "Don't be so surprised. There are no secrets in the investment circle. The so-called secrets are just a matter of time."

"When you went to Goose Factory to ask secondmind, after we got the news, we guessed that Kechuang Biotech was going to invest in AI chips, and even entered the AI ​​chip industry by ourselves."

"The vice president of your company recently led a team to England, and also brought a group of people from legal affairs, translation, business, financial technology, etc. Isn't this obviously to discuss acquisitions?"

"These are not secrets. You have been in the investment circle before and you should know how fast the news from the top investment institutions is."

Shunwei Capital is not considered a top player, but it can barely be considered a mid-level player.

Cheng Gang calmed down: "You told me so much today, what do you want?"

Young stated his purpose: "IDG and Goldman Sachs can help Kechuang Bio to settle the matter of being included in the entity list. We need to follow up and invest in secondmind together."

What Young said did not deviate from what Cheng Gang expected: "I don't have this authority, this matter needs to be decided by Chairman Zheng."

"Can you get us off the unverified list?"

Young shook his head: "It's already on the list, but we can't do it for the time being. We can guarantee that Kechuang Bio will not change from the unverified list to the entity list in the near future."

The Unverified List is simply an additional due diligence exercise by American businesses wishing to do business with the listed businesses.

The degree here is just hope, so the impact is limited.

The entity list means that companies entering the list cannot have any business transactions with American, which is far more serious than the unverified list.

　Thank you book friend 20201222095310546 for your reward!Three chapters will be updated first, there is still a high probability of two chapters to be updated in the afternoon

　　
　
(End of this chapter)