Sail across the sea

Chapter 500: We Can't Do Anything About It
"The Provincial Planning Commission has already informed us about this matter. Provincial leaders have also consulted us to assess whether this matter is feasible."

In the director's office of the Provincial Economic Commission, Xu Ying listened to Gao Fan's report and nodded.

Skelly spent several days lobbying in the province, speaking to officials in various departments. Although these officials did not agree to Skelly's demands, they reported the situation to their superiors, thus creating a certain public opinion.

It must be said that Skelley's move did have some effect. The principle of "three men can make a tiger" is something even foreigners understand.

The country is currently undergoing a full transition to a market economy. However, most officials are unclear about how to implement a market economy; they simply believe that it should be more free and open.

Opinions differ on whether the fertilizer market should be opened to foreign investment. Some officials, based on the national agricultural input monopoly policy, believe it should not be opened. Others argue that the monopoly policy is a remnant of the planned economy and should be abandoned in the era of a market economy.

The fertilizer monopoly is related to food security. Some old-fashioned officials feel it's best to be cautious, but more radical officials believe this is Cold War thinking and outdated. A provincial leader once said at a meeting, "The Soviet Union has collapsed, the Cold War is over, and the future world will enter a state of universal harmony. If other countries have food, it's equivalent to China having food. Why should we worry about food security?"
In fact, such discussions had already existed before Skelly's visit. Xu Ying, as the director of the Economic Commission with an industry background, leaned towards the conservatives, but faced with the clamor of the radicals, she also doubted whether her thinking was rigid and whether she should change her perspective.

Caught in a dilemma, she thought of her beloved future son-in-law and wanted to hear his thoughts. So she called Gao Fan and asked him to come back at a suitable time, as she had important matters to discuss with him.

When Gao Fan first received the call, he thought his future mother-in-law wanted him to return to Ruizhang to pressure him into marriage. He only learned it was work-related after asking Gao Yiping. A couple of days ago, Xu Ying was busy with other matters and hadn't had a chance to see him. Today, Xu Ying was free and asked Gao Yiping to bring Gao Fan to the Economic Commission. However, Gao Fan first reported to Xu Ying the news he had heard from Zhang Wei.

"Xiao Fan, you have access to a lot of information in Beijing, and you're also close to Minister Zheng. Tell me, what is the country's attitude towards this issue?" Xu Ying asked Gao Fan.

Gao Fan said, "I think the country's attitude can be seen from the agricultural input monopoly system. This system was introduced in 88, and in 90 a notice was issued on improving the monopoly method. Not long ago, a notice was issued on strengthening the monopoly method. Basically, it is emphasized every two years, which shows that the country's attitude has no room for relaxation."

"That's the same response we gave to the Planning Commission," Xu Ying said. "However, the Provincial Policy Research Office pointed out that the country is currently negotiating the resumption of trade with China. After the resumption, various restrictive policies will be abolished, so the fertilizer monopoly system should not last too long."

“We should have policy foresight. While the country hasn’t fully opened up yet, we have more leverage when negotiating with foreign businesses about bringing in fertilizer plants. Once the country opens up, every province will be vying for foreign investment in fertilizer plants. Our province’s economic strength can’t compare with other provinces, so we may not be able to compete with them.”

“If we start arguing now, what will we do if the country doesn’t open it up by then?” Gao Fan asked with a smile.

Gao Yiping said, "The policy research office suggested that when we negotiate with foreign businesses, we shouldn't make any definitive statements at first. We can stall with them and wait for the government's policies."

Gao Fan laughed and said, "Do those people in the Policy Research Office think that foreign businessmen are as stupid as they are?"

"What nonsense are you talking about!" Xu Ying scolded with a smile, not caring that Gao Fan's biological father was present. As his future mother-in-law, she was practically Gao Fan's second mother, and she had the right to discipline him. Gao Fan couldn't be too presumptuous, so he changed to a serious tone and said, "I think those people in our provincial policy research office should be sent out for some training. Always staying in their studies researching policies won't produce any results."

"Those in charge of decision-making at the central level all come from the front lines and have experience in struggle. Don't be fooled by the nice words in the newspapers when talking about resuming GATT negotiations. In actual negotiations, we will not give an inch and will absolutely not abandon our core principles for the sake of some slogan of globalization."

Xu Ying nodded, indicating that she agreed with Gao Fan's judgment.

The reason a country chooses to reopen its borders is not because we have any faith in free trade, but because we value the benefits it brings. To obtain these benefits, we are willing to make some concessions and endure some losses, but the premise is that the gains must outweigh the losses. No one will foolishly open up for the sake of opening up.

In contrast, some scholars have a purely binary mindset on this issue. They have heard that free trade is a good thing, so they indiscriminately advocate the unconditional pursuit of freedom and criticize all government regulations.

It's said that a few scholars who graduated from prestigious universities came to the Provincial Policy Research Office. They could talk a lot about theories, but they had no practical experience in economic management. Xu Ying was very disdainful of these people.

In her view, her prospective son-in-law, who dared to use the prestige of the Vice Minister of the Ministry of Chemical Industry to contract a labor service company at the age of 16, was the real talent.

"During the negotiations for resuming trade relations, we were most focused on agricultural issues, even at the cost of sacrificing some interests in other areas. This shows that the country dares not relax its grip on the issue of agricultural security in the slightest," Gao Fan analyzed.

“However, I have seen articles that say that if China is to restore its status under the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT), it must meet the requirements of a market economy, and agricultural issues must ultimately be liberalized,” Gao Yiping said.

Gao Fan said, "That is indeed the case. However, there is a buffer period for reopening the market. For example, we promise to open up the agricultural market, but there needs to be a ten-year buffer period. During this period, we can still maintain protection for agriculture."

"We have ten years to make up for the shortcomings in agriculture that may be affected by foreign shocks. Once the buffer period is over, even if foreign capital comes in, it won't be able to do anything to us."

"So, do you think this is the case with fertilizers?" Xu Ying asked.

Gao Fan nodded seriously and said, "I think that's the case. I estimate that we should have about fifteen years from now. We need to make China's own fertilizer industry bigger and stronger during this period. Fifteen years later, it won't be foreign countries impacting our fertilizer market, but us impacting foreign fertilizer markets."

(End of this chapter)