legendary trader

Chapter 326 327 Stock Market Bubble

"I bought more than 4 million points in two days, and there are still more than 8 million funds that have not been spent." Zheng Xiaopang said to Chen Fan on the sofa, "After sending a message last night, they suspended the purchase , you know this."

Xu Jing, who just came here today, said at this moment: "I read the rumor about raising interest rates, and we also found the source of the news. It was mainly proposed by some scholars based on some economic data. As for whether the central banks of various countries will consider it There is no news on that."

"That is to say, it wasn't an official leak?" Zheng Xiaopang hurriedly asked.

"No, it's just the opinion of some scholars. They feel that continuing to lower the benchmark interest rate will have limited benefits to the current real economy. There is no shortage of funds in the society, but none of the funds have entered the real economy." Xu Jing said, looking at and sitting on the sofa. Chen Fan continued: "Although interest rate cuts are indeed good for companies, they have no plans to further expand production, so the interest rate cuts are meaningless. On the contrary, because of the easing of funds, a large amount of funds have been transferred to the stock market. The current stock market has bubbles. The current risk is not too big, but if it continues to rise as it did in previous years, it will be hard to say."

"Those who study the economy think that the temperature should be cooled, so they propose to raise interest rates, hoping to squeeze the bubble?" Zheng Xiaopang said a little surprised, and looked at Chen Fan while talking, "Is there a bubble in the stock market?"

Chen Fan put the cigarette in his hand into the ashtray and shook his head, "I don't know, probably not, I feel that the current stock prices in the stock market are still reasonable, and there is no false high, and they are still within the acceptable range That's right."

After finishing speaking, Chen Fan turned to Xu Jing and asked, "Then what do you mean? Do you want to continue speculating on rice stocks this time?"

"What's your opinion?" Xu Jing looked at Chen Fan playfully, "Do you think the current market will have a chance to explode next year?"

"What do you mean? I said you continue to invest if there is a market, and you plan to withdraw when I say there is no market?" Chen Fan said with a smile. Helping you decide, it will be very stressful for me.”

"I think you all should have a basic judgment, otherwise you wouldn't have come here and just made a phone call." After waiting for a while and seeing that Xu Jing didn't seem to be planning to speak, Chen Fan had no choice but to probe.

"Sister Xu, have you discussed the result yet? Let's talk about it." Zheng Xiaopang urged on the side. He felt that if Chen Fan and Xu Jing were hiding like this right now, then there would be nothing they could do in the future. cooperated.

Xu Jing glanced at Zheng Xiaopang and said, "We didn't discuss anything, so we decided to listen to Chen Fan's judgment."

"The research department below you didn't come up with a result?" Zheng Xiaopang said a little surprised, but it's right to think about it in retrospect, they really didn't get the analysis data, and Chaofan Investment Headquarters hasn't issued the analysis report yet.

"What kind of information do you know? A very common market rumor is like this. Is there any information that we don't know?" Chen Fan asked a little puzzled.

"No, in fact, the main problem is not the rumor, but that the central banks of various countries seem to have signs of raising interest rates. At least the information from some channels we have come into contact with is that they are considering raising interest rates." Xu Jing said, " However, the analysis department is also divided into two groups. One group believes that the market of US technology stocks will continue and will not be affected, while the other group believes that the market will be very short-lived. Once a central bank starts to raise interest rates, it is very likely that major global economies will raise interest rates. At this time, the market will stop abruptly, because, as the rumors say, there is a bubble in the stock market.”

The stock market bubble, this is a thing that all investors are afraid of. Economists believe that the current stock market is extremely active in speculative transactions and flooded with liquidity, causing the market prices of financial securities to rise sharply from their actual values, causing superficial prosperity. The essence is Price and value diverge seriously.

For investors, as long as most investors are not particularly unlucky during the bubble expansion stage, they will make a lot of money at this stage. Of course, there are differences in how much money they make, but the probability of making money at this stage is very high of.

But once a bubble is formed, investors who actually participate in stock market investment are already in a state of tightrope walking at the moment, because no one knows when the bubble will be burst.

The consequences of the bursting of the stock market bubble are very serious. Generally, when the normal trend of the stock market enters the adjustment stage, that is, the so-called bear market state, it is very difficult for ordinary investors, because this stage often represents that you It is often a long process to watch your own assets shrink and keep shrinking, and your confidence in holding shares will be wiped away as the market continues to fall.

The bursting of the stock market bubble is a stock market disaster. In a short period of time, you will find that your assets are gone, a large amount of social wealth will evaporate, and you will not see any hope, because the market will enter an irrational stage. At this time, there is no Any theoretical guidance, because all market participants have been dominated by fear, the market behavior has been irrational at all, and such fear will quickly amplify, when Feng Kang sells stocks in fear of several people, Tens of millions of investors will be infected in a short period of time. Everyone just wants to cash out as soon as possible and sell regardless of cost, but no one dares to enter the market. The trading order is seriously unbalanced in a very short period of time.

Chen Fan only read about the stock market crash after the stock market bubble, and it has never happened in the past ten years, but having no experience does not mean that he does not know its lethality. Now Chen Fan also knows why Xu Jing and the others are very nervous Be careful, although people like Xu Jing may not have experienced it, their families should know it and deeply understand the horror after the stock market bubble. Although only a small number of people now think that the stock market may have a bubble after years of rising, but Taboo on the stock market bubble, so they have to deal with it carefully.

"Is there really a bubble in the stock market?" Zheng Xiaopang suddenly interrupted and asked at this moment. He was speaking to Chen Fan, and he wanted to hear Chen Fan's judgment.

"Stock market bubble?" Chen Fan frowned and thought for a while before saying: "It's hard to say, those people say that the stock market has a bubble mainly because the United States has been rising in the past few years, and they may have noticed that some stock prices are extremely high, mainly technology stocks , According to the method of calculating company value in traditional industries, the current market value of those high-tech companies is indeed very high, saying that there is a bubble is based on the analysis made according to traditional theories, I think so.”

"There is a bubble in the stocks of high-tech companies?" Zheng Xiaopang exclaimed when he heard Chen Fan's words, "No, we all buy technology stocks. What you mean is that there is a bubble in the traditional theory, but you think High-tech companies should not be valued according to traditional theory, so you don’t think there is a bubble, right?”

"Nonsense, if there is a bubble, I'll enter the market and buy when I'm full." Chen Fan gave Zheng Xiaopang a blank look. This idiot reacts quickly, but sometimes Lenovo is a bit short.

"Then don't be afraid. If you are bullish, it will go up. No matter what kind of bubble." Zheng Xiaopang didn't worry anymore. He started to hear Xu Jing repeatedly talking about the stock market bubble, which also shocked him. Anyone who thinks there is no bubble in the stock market has nothing to fear.

Xu Jing listened quietly to the conversation between Chen Fan and Zheng Xiaopang, and she also understood what Chen Fan meant, and nodded slightly, "That's good, our plan can continue to advance."

Chen Fan nodded. Although he didn't know where the rice stocks would go in the end, according to the current trend and some information collected before, Chen Fan was convinced that there might be a huge interest group, and they were trying to use the rice stock market to carry out An action to squeeze the wool of the world, and since the wool of the world is going to be squeezed, the market must be a big deal. Now he just needs to get on the boat in time and wait until their stock price rises to the price they want to ship, and get out of the market first. Moreover, it would be good to increase the momentum of their appearance and block the escape channel of this interest group. At that time, the sellers in the market could crush them to death, and they have been avenged for stabbing them in the back.

Because they spread the news in Huaguo, Chen Fan and the others became frightened for a while, but they were exposed in the end, although this is not a bad thing.

"Will the market drop sharply tonight? Is that the rumor?" Zheng Xiaopang was thinking about what happened at night. In the early morning, rice stocks finally rose and closed. The Dow closed at 9070 points, and the Nasdaq also closed at 2040 points. It is said that Chen Fan and the others have not entered the market to attract money, but in the end the stock market continued to rise, and it did not stop rising because of their stop. This made Zheng Xiaopang realize that the current market is very bullish, and of course Zheng Xiaopang was a little discouraged. Because he now controls a huge amount of funds, he once thought that he could control the ups and downs of the US stock market. If he didn't make a move, why should the stock market continue to rise? This is the time for bad news.

"The rumor of the interest rate hike didn't spread, and I didn't see it in today's newspapers or analysis reports." Chen Fan said with a frown, "The market has been brewing for several years, even if the rumor of the interest rate hike spreads, it will not happen in a short time. Affecting the trend of the stock market, unless the central bank suddenly raises interest rates, it may have a significant impact on the market."

"The news should not have spread. At present, only a few institutions may know about this rumor, although the reliability is very high." Xu Jing said.

"I'm very surprised. Why do you attach so much importance to the rumors of interest rate hikes and the analysis of some economists, as if the rumors of interest rate hikes have been confirmed." Chen Fan shook his head lightly and said, he couldn't understand why some scholars' words Let these people be afraid like this.

"Those scholars are not teachers, they are consultants of the central banks of many countries, experts who have provided advice to the government's economic policies for a long time, you understand." Xu Jing could only explain, "If they are pure scholars and professors, then of course they can say whatever they want , but many of them are economic advisors to governments of various countries, so we should not take them lightly, and their opinions will gradually affect the decision-making of governments of various countries.”

"Oh, that's it, then there is no problem. It seems that there should be a wave of interest rate hikes next year." After finishing speaking, Chen Fan chuckled and shook his head and stopped talking.

At around 8 o'clock in the evening, Chen Fan and Zheng Xiaopang chatted in the command room, waiting for the rice stock market to open.

"You said that the news of the interest rate increase suddenly came out, who exactly launched it." Zheng Xiaopang said while surfing the Internet.

"Yo, Brother Fat also feels something is wrong, haha." Chen Fan laughed.

"Tell me what you think, this afternoon I felt that you were not telling the truth." Zheng Xiaopang turned his head and gave Chen Fan a white look, but at this time Chen Fan didn't look at him, his eyes were rolled in vain.

Chen Fan thought for a while before he said: "I was thinking about this news last night, and it came out suddenly, and it was just like the truth. .”

"Xiao Fanfan, don't talk too far, just go straight to the dry goods." Zheng Xiaopang immediately interrupted Chen Fan's words. He knew that Chen Fan was trying to trick him, so there must be a bunch of nonsense behind it.

"Hehe. Some people have summed it up in the past. The market is born in despair, rises in doubt, and finally reaches a climax. This news should be to cover the start of the market. He wants investors to doubt the market and think it is very dangerous. In this way, most people will miss this best time to enter the market." Chen Fan picked up the cigarette case from the table, took out one and threw it to Zheng Xiaopang, took out another one himself, and took a deep breath.

"I estimate that this rumor will take a few days to ferment, and there should be continuous bad news coming out later. Only by such continuous bad news can more people miss the opportunity to board the ship, and wait for them to react. When crazily scrambling for tickets, it is estimated that it is the middle of the market, and at this time there must be continuous good news until we run away, do you understand?" Chen Fan exhaled smoke and said, "This is my guess, sure? It’s definitely not good, but no matter how they play, we are now covering up stocks, covering up the stocks we bought, and waiting for a good price to sell to them.”

"We stab them in the back when we leave the market. It's not bad. I like it." Zheng Xiaopang nodded, "Let's take his boat when the market goes up, and take the initiative to short when the market goes down, and put them in it, hehehe."

"Short selling is something I can only think about right now. I think it's really going to be a critical moment. It is not ruled out that people will restrict us from short selling to make money by modifying the trading rules." Chen Fan shook his head and said, "What kind of country is the United States? As long as you have money , what can’t be done, for short-selling things, if there is an opportunity, we can try to do it, but don’t think too much, just do it if you can, and forget it if you can’t do it.”

"Yeah, well, when the time comes, the funds in the set may not be good, and we will have a lot of money in the country. At that time." Zheng Xiaopang nodded like a chicken pecking at rice, but he hesitated when he said it.

"You're thinking too much, let's talk about this later, at least wait until we run away before caring about others." Chen Fan chuckled and shook his head.

(End of this chapter)