legendary trader

Chapter 544

After An Shilin explained in detail the progress of the oilfield construction of Summit Petroleum there, Chen Fan asked him again: "Mr. An, you are an old oilman. Do you think that if the Middle East side gives up suppressing oil prices, the price of crude oil will be reduced?" Where can the price go up?"

What Chen Fan cares about is the future trend of international oil prices, that is the only way to make money, to make a lot of money. Only by listening to his judgment as an old man in the industry, can he have a target price for reference. When the time comes, invest a sum of money to speculate in international Crude oil futures.

"Before they suppressed oil prices, the fluctuation range of international oil prices was actually below 20 yuan. Although it did not rise, it could not be stabilized.

This time they have suppressed oil prices by increasing production. Not only our country, but many countries with conditions have increased their oil reserves and devoured a large amount of their released production.

Judging from the current consumption of crude oil in the world, the increase in consumption of crude oil is only so much, and the newly increased production capacity in the Americas is also considered. I guess that if there is no major change, the international oil price may not return to the original price. It's about 18 meters. "

After thinking about it, An Shilin said that he judged the possible operating price of international oil prices in the future based on the current supply and consumption of international crude oil.

"The United States is a country on wheels. The consumption of crude oil there has reached a high level. If there are no new industries that consume a large amount of crude oil, it is estimated that there will not be much demand there, and the United States itself has a lot of crude oil production.

The other consumption is concentrated on Europa, but the oil quality of the North Sea oil field there is also good. Although the production cost is a bit higher, the lower freight can also partially offset it.

The rest are a few countries in Huaguo and island countries, but these countries and regions have limited consumption, and island countries also consume a lot, but they pay more attention to energy conservation, so there is actually little room for growth.

Among the major economies, in fact, the biggest variable is our country. Now our consumption is far behind that of the United States, even Europa. If the domestic car ownership can increase significantly, maybe the international oil price will be able to rise. Maybe it will return to 20 yuan. "

An Shilin continued.

"If you want to make a lot of money in the oil field, then you have to let the oil producing areas in the Middle East or America go to war?" Huang Tian interrupted suddenly.

"Don't talk about that level, it has nothing to do with us." Second Brother Wang glanced at him and said lightly.

"Second brother, does the new domestic government have any policies? I mean for the automobile industry?" Chen Fan asked suddenly.

The second brother Wang was slightly taken aback when he heard the words, and then said with a smile: "If you want to develop the economy, you must not only stimulate exports but also expand domestic demand. To stimulate exports is to lower the exchange rate of the Chinese currency to a limited extent when other countries accept it. , but that matter is more troublesome. The depreciation is so fierce that other countries will not do it. To expand domestic demand, it is necessary to increase the income of ordinary people first, and how to consume without money.

I understand your thoughts. The old men are thinking of ways to increase the income of residents, but that is more complicated, and it won't be solved in a short while. There are many things involved. "

Chen Fan nodded slightly when he heard the words, knowing in his heart that domestic crude oil consumption is unlikely to increase significantly in the short term. This should also be the case in other countries and regions, so there must be little room for crude oil prices to rise in the short term.

From the current international oil price of 12 yuan to the expected 18 yuan, it seems that there is a [-]% increase, but considering the situation of building warehouses, etc., and the crude oil plate is too large, the amount of funds in and out of it is huge, the source is complicated, and the oil price It is also very troublesome to operate.

In addition, the increase in production in the past two years has led to the accumulation of crude oil in major oil depots around the world. It will take a long time for these stocks to be consumed. Chen Fan's expectation of rising oil prices in the short term has basically disappeared.

"In the short term, at least this year, I don't think there will be a deal. Now we don't know when we can negotiate production reduction and price protection over there." Chen Fan said lightly, "But that's fine. According to Brother Seven, I guess they can't support it anymore. , Our oil field will be put into production at the end of the year, and I think there should be a good distribution of benefits at that time, and the price of crude oil should gradually rise, but it is unlikely that it will skyrocket back in the short term, and the value of the operation will no longer exist.”

Chen Fan directly dismissed the idea of ​​investing in crude oil futures to make quick money, because investing to make money requires a short cycle. If the production cut and price protection can stimulate the oil price to rise sharply in the short term, then there is still a way to do it.

But now it seems that if the news comes out, the price of oil may rise in a short period of time, but in the face of huge inventory pressure, the price increase is also limited, and then it will gradually recover. The time is prolonged, and the cost pressure of various aspects is under pressure. , the profit will be diluted, and there is no point in doing this.

"Then let's honestly make money through oil extraction." Second Brother Wang thought about it and said, "We just thought about speculating on crude oil futures at the beginning, and we didn't take it too seriously."

Second brother Wang heard what Chen Fan meant, and after a little thought, he smiled and said.

"However, there is no way to invest in the oil fields in those oil-producing areas. Is Lao An going to touch the bottom of those oil fields in other places to see if anyone is willing to make a move. Now that I have entered this industry, I still want to make a big deal. Taking advantage of the low price, we are buying some oil fields.”

Chen Fan thought about it and continued. After all, seeing that the international oil price may start to rise at the end of the year or next year, profits will be generated at that time. It is also a good business to buy some oil fields at a low price by taking advantage of the low oil price and the loss-making environment of oil companies. It is a project that can benefit in the long run. Chen Fan feels that although the investment is huge, it can still be done. After all, this part of the funds can be used to solve the funding gap through the bank, and there will not be much pressure, especially for everyone in the room.

"Although many oil companies have experienced operating losses since last year, it is really rare to see news that they are going to sell oilfield assets publicly. However, I can ask to see if there is any and what price it is. If the price is cheap, it is indeed possible. Do it."

An Shilin nodded, and said without hesitation, "Actually, I have been paying attention to this matter, but the current oil price is unreasonable, and most crude oil production companies know this, so everyone is procrastinating, I hope It will be delayed until the industry picks up."

"It doesn't matter. If there is any at that time, we will buy it. If we don't have it, forget it. We have nothing to lose."

After hearing what he said, Chen Fan glanced at him, and said with a smile, "Actually, it's okay to procrastinate. The more you procrastinate, the closer you will be to the recovery of oil prices. We will make money faster if we invest in it, which is a good thing."

(End of this chapter)