Rebirth 79: I opened a bank in the United States

March 1984, 3, Kasumigaseki, Japan
The weather is fine, white clouds hang high in the blue sky, and the spring breeze is blowing on the face, making everyone, including the Japanese police standing guard at the gate of the Ministry of Finance, feel a little lazy unconsciously
The streets here are quiet after the morning rush hour!
Following at the end of the U.S. negotiating delegation, accompanied by the "slap" sound of leather shoes stepping on the marble floor, Carter walked into the large conference hall of the Ministry of Finance
Turn left after entering the door, and along the wall, Carter found a seat that belonged to him.

As a negotiator, Carter took out a notebook from his bag, pretended to be serious, and then
Carter lives in Bengbu!

"Your Excellency Zangxiang, after these 20 days of research, you should have a specific plan for measures?"

"Of course, Your Excellency the Minister of Finance. This is a reform plan jointly made by the Banking Bureau of the Ministry of Finance, the Planning Division and other departments. Please read it over."

To be honest, when the door of the conference hall was just closed.The atmosphere is quite normal!

Although Treasury Secretary Reagan said that he was a bit more direct, it was a formal meeting after all, and it was a private meeting with not many participants. There was nothing wrong with being direct.So as not to waste the time of both parties, but the next moment.
"A pile of shit!"

A piece of paper cannot be dropped on the table, but a stack of paper is different
Under the amplification of the microphone, the "snap" sounded like a gavel being slapped.Due to insomnia last night, Carter's mental state has not been very good, and he was instantly frightened.
"In the last meeting, we put forward two proposals. 1. The internationalization of Japanese currency; 2. The marketization of Japanese finance! Are these two points difficult to deal with? Let's see what plans you have come up with?"

"The whole article is all about reducing regulation, reducing interference, where to reduce? How much interference? You don't even mention it! Your Excellency Zangxiang, the times are different! The current era is an era of internationalization and a global market In the era of the oil crisis in the past few years, all countries in the world suffered, but you, Japan, are making a fortune!"

"While engaging in trade protectionism at home, using the "Foreign Exchange Management Law" to restrict economic flows. At the same time, deliberately organizing commodities and going to the world to 'siege cities'. Are you really not afraid of angering everyone by doing this?!"

"Oh, no! Mr. Finance Minister, what are you talking about? Yes, I also admit that Japan has indeed eaten some dividends from the oil crisis in the past few years, but the self-restriction agreement issued by the Ministry of International Trade and Industry , is the best proof that we take the initiative to maintain the stability of the international market! We."

Contrary to the wide-eyed Reagan Secretary of the Treasury, Nobuo Takeshita, the Minister of Finance of Japan, who was sitting directly opposite him and could also be easily seen by Carter, had a flattering smile on his face, looking around. it.
Based on the acquired knowledge about exchange rates, Carter also internally analyzed the key points in the discourse of the two parties.Obviously, Secretary Reagan mentioned two initiatives, but the core purpose is in one place: Japan's "Foreign Exchange Control Law"!
It can be easily seen from the name of this law that Japan is now a foreign exchange control country.In other words, in Japan, foreign currency cannot be freely converted into local currency!Likewise, local currency cannot be easily converted into foreign currency!
If you want to exchange US dollars for Japanese yen, you must first go through the approval of the Japanese government, and you can only exchange after the government nods!
This kind of control is obviously a very unfavorable factor for the flow of capital.Even though everyone knows that Japan has a large amount of foreign exchange reserves due to its trade surplus for years.If you invest in Japan, the final income will be settled in local currency, and the Japanese side will certainly be able to exchange it. However, not many foreign investors dare to enter Japan at this point in time. The reason lies in Japan's "Foreign Exchange Control Law"!

Compared with another country in the same period, Thailand!

From the perspective of stabilizing interest rates, Thailand and Japan have similar goals, and the core goals are artificially controlled exchange rates.But the difference is that Thailand is an open financial market, and their laws and regulations allow free exchange between foreign currency and local currency.

Then the Thai government wants to control and stabilize the exchange rate, and the method is relatively simple: when the Thai baht depreciates, the Thai baht is worthless, why not sell it quickly and keep it?The increase in the supply of Thai baht in the market means that if it is exchanged for US dollars, it means that the demand for US dollars will increase.At this time, if the Thai government wants to maintain a stable exchange rate, it can only use US dollar reserves to buy Thai baht in the market.Increase the supply of US dollars, reduce the supply of Thai baht in the market, and achieve the effect of stabilizing prices.

But Japan is not the same, the exchange of yen to US dollars must be approved.So the question is, what if the approval is blocked?Yen, is that what you said to throw away?If you want to change it, hey, I won’t change it for you!What can you do?We in Japan rejected you legally and compliantly, where are you going to reason? !
This is not to say that when the economy is not good, that is, when the economy is developing well, I, an American, come to Japan to invest in you.I earned a bunch of yen, what's the use of taking it back? !
The United States can not use the yen
This kind of foreign exchange control is like a checkpoint, which not only blocks the flow of foreign capital, but also blocks the connection between the two currencies, the dollar and the yen.This is easy to understand:
Since the yen and the U.S. dollar are not freely convertible, the two currencies in Japan are like two separate reservoirs.The water level is high on one side and low on the other side, but because there is a wall in the middle, it cannot be averaged.

And once the wall in the middle is broken, the water in the high water level reservoir will inevitably flow into the low water level reservoir.
The existence of huge US dollar reserves compared with the relatively small amount of yen today, combined with the fact that Japanese goods are needed by companies and people in various countries
If people want to buy Japanese goods, they need yen.If the yen is less and the dollar is more, the exchange rate of the yen will rise!

At the same time, if Japan's foreign exchange control is broken, it will also open up the Japanese financial market.With the promise of "free exchange of domestic and foreign currencies" at the national level, combined with Japan's massive US dollar reserves, it is inevitable that international capital will wantonly invade Japan!
As for Japan's bad debts, the free exchange of foreign currency will be suddenly banned at that time.
Sorry, Japan is not Russia!No one believed that Japan dared to do such a thing, not to mention that the fighting nation in 84 had never done such a thing!

If this is done, the country's credit will collapse.The legal currency can be recognized by the public, and its source is national credit.If the country's credit collapses, who would dare to use the country's legal currency?

Knowing that Secretary Reagan's core goal was foreign exchange control, Carter looked back at Takeshita's words.The self-restriction agreement issued by the Ministry of International Trade and Industry has indeed eased the trade friction between the United States and Japan to a certain extent, and made room for American companies.But compared to monetary policy changes that affect the overall situation, the financial policy restrictions of the Ministry of International Trade and Industry directly affect individual industries, and it is only an indirect impact on the overall situation.
From the perspective of Japan's six major economic groups, this is somewhat similar to the situation of banks: it's okay to earn less in a certain business, as long as most businesses can earn normally!

Looking at it this way, the attitude of the Japanese side is becoming clearer and clearer: If you want to make me lose money in a certain industry, it's okay!Who makes us in Japan still inseparable from American dads?Just treat it as a tribute to your father.But if you want Japan to lose everything, if you want Japan to stop eating meat and only drink soup, then you can’t specify it!

Carter gradually understood the subtext.As for Secretary Reagan, when he spoke from Takeshita Deng, he understood: the Japanese are still dishonest!