Starting from floating in Hong Kong

Chapter 130 I Bet You 4 Million ([-]K asks for subscription, asks for monthly pass)

Huang Chengju looked at Qin Yi with both reserved and a little bit of pride in his eyes, which was due to his contempt and disdain for ordinary people due to his background and high position for a long time.

The people around had already noticed what happened in this corner, and gathered to watch.

Some people were secretly excited that there was finally something exciting to watch.

Some people shook their heads, thinking that Huang Chengju was too young and aggressive, and it would be unwise to fight with others in public.

Could it be that the young master Huang Chengju lost his temper and wanted to get angry with Qin Yi and compete?
That's really overthinking it.

What is the identity of the other party? It's just a nobody.

If Huang Chengju didn't even look at it normally, if the other party pointed at him and scolded him face to face, he would laugh it off and talk about it afterwards.

Comparing with inferior people is too inferior.

Has Huang Chengju been scolded less since his debut? He has been thrown rotten eggs in the street.

He doesn't have to apologize on the spot if he is said a few words, he still has this measure.

But not today, especially on this occasion, when he is selling bonds in full view of the public.

The other party said that the bond would be compensated, whether it was unintentional or not, it sounded like a serious provocation to him.

The core of finance is confidence, which is also the essence of financial markets and financial products.

When you lose confidence, you lose everything.

Confidence is something more precious than gold.

This sentence may damage the confidence of the people around them in this batch of bonds, and these people in the banquet hall are basically the social elites of Hong Kong Island. These people not only represent themselves, but also a company and a group behind them Or an industry, a class of people.

These people have no confidence, so Huang Chengju is still selling bonds.

Therefore, Huang Chengju had to stand up and fight with the opponent, and he had to slap him in the face on the spot.

The harder the beating, the stronger the confidence foundation of these people in the bond will be.

At the same time, take this excellent opportunity to promote the bonds in hand again.

This is not brainless fighting spirit, behind this is all interests.

Seeing more and more people gathered around, Huang Chengju's smile grew stronger. Now it needs more people to be effective.

"Everyone, the bonds underwritten by our Changhe Group are issued by the Central Bank of the People's Republic of China, and the yield can reach more than 15%." Huang Chengju started the sales in an unhurried tone, with a commercial smile on his face. The slightest domineering posture just now.

"As we all know, since the issuer of national debt is the country, it has the highest credit and is recognized as the safest investment tool. These bonds are issued by the Bank of England and guaranteed by the Chinese government. Their safety is unquestionable. Doubtful."

"International rating agencies have rated China's debt as AAA, and Changhe Group has identified these bonds as prudent wealth management products, which are the least risky among all wealth management products."

Qin Yi stood up with a smile, "The 15% rate of return is indeed very attractive. As we all know, in the financial field, high risks have high returns, and high returns must correspond to high returns. As Mr. Huang said, it seems that only high returns, There's no high risk, it doesn't make sense."

The people around also frowned, yes, this is unreasonable.

Huang Chengju sneered and said nothing, that's it?

Are you going to use this as an argument?

Laning with someone like you is a bit of a waste of time.

But in the next second, Huang Chengju's expression changed.

"Do you know how this high yield came about?" Qin Yi said lightly, "Since the mid-to-late 80s, China's real estate industry has flourished and its economy has grown rapidly. Since China's economy was good at that time, in order to curb the rise of the pound against the Deutsche Mark , The central bank chose to cut interest rates. After the interest rate cut, a large number of mortgage loans emerged, housing prices skyrocketed, inflation rose, and the CPI (price inflation index) rose from 1986% in 2 to 1990% in 10.”

"But at the end of the 80s, the central bank tightened monetary policy and kept raising interest rates, from 7.5% to 15%, fully doubling."

"Beginning in 1990, the Chinese economy has entered a recession, and the unemployment rate has risen. In 1990, the unemployment rate was 7.7%, and it had risen to 1992% in 12.7. Home buyers were unemployed, unable to repay their loans, and banks closed down. The problem facing the country now is productivity. Low, exports are not competitive, and people have no confidence in the government to turn the economy around."

As soon as Qin Yi mentioned various noun data, Huang Chengju immediately felt that something was wrong. Why did this person remember all kinds of data so clearly?
Either they are experts who deal with the economy and finance every day, or they have been prepared to make trouble on purpose.

Huang Chengju kept smiling, and said calmly: "I can't tell, this gentleman has a lot of research on the economy."

"Only a little bit."

"Since you know so much, why did the central bank of China raise interest rates?" Huang Chengju answered without waiting for Qin Yi's answer, "Since the 80s, high inflation has been a serious problem for central banks of various countries. In March 1980, the U.S. Inflation was as high as 3%, and Volcker, then chairman of the Federal Reserve, raised interest rates continuously, and the federal benchmark interest rate reached 14.8% in June 1981. A recession followed, and the inflation rate fell to 6% in 20.”

"However, the extremely tightened monetary policy created a good opportunity for US President Reagan to formulate a new economic policy. Relying on the government's massive borrowing, the US achieved economic take-off."

"Fed Chairman Volcker and President Reagan can be called the best partners. Since then, they have become a model for central banks and governments around the world to follow. Tightening monetary policy to combat inflation and stimulate the economy through fiscal deficits is called Reagan in the economics circle. economics."

"Since then, many central banks have followed Volcker in tightening monetary policy, and raising interest rates is just a means to combat high inflation."

The expressions of the people around were suddenly enlightened, and they couldn't help admiring.

"So it is."

"Mr. Huang is really knowledgeable. It seems that the Huang family has a successor."

"A tiger father has no dogs and sons."

"As expected of a top student at Stanford, he understands such complicated economics."

"It seems that some of these bonds have been sold."

Seeing that the atmosphere was getting better, Huang Chengju struck while the iron was hot, "Everyone, let me tell you another piece of good news. European countries have always hoped to create a pan-European economy and use close economic ties to connect the whole of Europe into a huge market. If this market can be established It will be comparable to the United States economically."

"Since 90, China has joined the European Monetary System, which can reduce the fluctuation of European currencies, so that companies do not have to worry about severe exchange rate fluctuations affecting business models and profits when investing and trading, and greatly stimulate economic development. Join After the European Monetary System, China's CPI dropped sharply to 4%.

"The economic situation is very good. Now is the critical moment when China urgently needs funds to stimulate economic growth. Economists predict that China's economic growth will remain at 5% in the next few years."

As soon as the words fell, a heated discussion erupted in the crowd, and everyone was very excited, as if they were very excited.

Huang Chengju's eyes fell on Qin Yi, "Sir, what else can you say?"

"I have a question." Qin Yi looked at Huang Chengju expressionlessly, "The national policy of the country for nearly a hundred years has always been offshore balance, and actively joining the European system is not in line with the previous national policy. Now not only joining the European currency system, The Maastricht Treaty was signed in February this year, why did Congress do this?"

Huang Chengju was taken aback for a moment, he didn't expect the other party to say such a sentence.

"Since the 80s, China's economic situation has been sluggish. Some experts pointed out that the country has fallen into recession. In the first two years before joining the European Monetary System, the CPI rose from 5% to 8%. High interest rates seem to be ineffective against high inflation, but increased risk of recession."

"The country is faced with a dilemma. Maintaining high interest rates will inevitably lead to a Great Depression, and inflation cannot be tolerated by lowering interest rates. So what to do, we can only lower interest rates and release water to stimulate the economy, but this will lead to the depreciation of the pound and capital outflows, which will trigger a crisis."

"So the Chinese government hopes to rely on external forces, so it chooses to join the exchange rate mechanism of the European Monetary System to stabilize the exchange rate of the pound and manage inflation. After joining the EMS, the UK immediately announced a 1% interest rate cut. After joining the EMS, the UK's CPI (price inflation Index) fell sharply to 4%.

"However, the country is also facing a very embarrassing problem. The economic weakness makes it impossible for the pound to maintain an overvalued exchange rate."

"After joining the European Monetary System, the hands and feet were tied even more, because after joining, the pound must be pegged to the mark, and there is a lower limit, so it can only float within the limit of the exchange rate mechanism."

"This means that China's monetary policy is no longer independent, but has become a passive follower of Germany's monetary policy. The German central bank adopts a tight monetary policy to fight inflation, so the British central bank's monetary policy is also tight. Due to the exchange rate mechanism The British government cannot stimulate the economy by printing money at will."

"If the pound depreciates, it is very likely to exceed the lower limit of the exchange rate, then it will break away from the European monetary system, declare the failure of foreign exchange policy, and the government will lose the hearts of the people.

If the pound does not depreciate, the exchange rate is overvalued, and capital votes with their feet, foreign exchange reserves will continue to lose blood, and the consequences will be very serious. "

"Then I would like to ask Mr. Huang, in this situation, how can the Central Bank of China guarantee the high yield of these bonds."

The audience next to him were a little confused, because Qin Yi's words were too shocking.

Huang Chengju's face changed suddenly. Such a professional discussion was a bit beyond his knowledge reserve. He turned his head and glanced at the assistant.

Fortunately, the assistant still did a lot of homework, and immediately bowed his head and said a few words in his ear.

"You are alarmist!" Huang Chengju quickly stabilized his position and refuted loudly, "According to the regulations of the European Monetary System, the currencies of various countries and the German mark are allowed to float in the range of plus or minus 6%. If the floating flexibility is not enough, countries can Negotiate with each other and make adjustments, the system was created to consider balancing exchange rate stability and interest rate flexibility.”

Qin Yi sneered, "This currency system stipulates that the anchor of the exchange rate is the Deutsche Mark, not the exchange rate fluctuation determined by the market. This is against the laws of the market. The economic development among countries is not balanced, and their strengths are not the same. The policies are different."

"The current form is that China needs to cut interest rates to stimulate investment and consumption. As for Germany, it needs a lot of funds to enter, and because of the booming infrastructure business, inflation is on the rise. The Germans urgently need to raise interest rates, keep funds in the country and suppress Inflation."

"The interests of the two countries are fundamentally opposite. If the pound does not depreciate, a steady stream of funds will flow into Germany, which will have an extremely adverse impact on the economically sluggish country."

"If the depreciation is too severe, the country will automatically leave the European currency system. I believe everyone can guess what the consequences will be. The big European market that Mr. Huang mentioned just now is completely in vain."

At this moment, Huang Chengju couldn't bear it any longer, and reprimanded loudly: "You are talking nonsense! Absurd! Nonsense!"

"It's easy to tell if I'm talking nonsense, and you can find out by asking a professional." Qin Yi's expression on the other side's reprimand was unwavering, "Everyone is now debating and reasoning with each other, expressing their opinions, what's wrong It’s good to point out the place directly, Mr. Huang blindly said that I was talking nonsense, without even giving a reason to refute, which would be disrespectful.”

"you……"

"And what I just said is not my personal opinion, but an economic research team under Harvard University. The experts in the team are the world's top economists. According to the expert's report, speculators in the market have long noticed Now that this is the case, they are looking for loopholes in the European monetary system, and they will take action soon." Qin Yi once again threw a heavy bomb.

"If there is a problem with the exchange rate of various countries, there will be a chain reaction, and the currencies of European countries will face the danger of being shorted. The exchange rate is tied to death. How can Germany save you when it is really critical? Is Germany the father of the country?"

"You..." Huang Chengju was speechless for a moment, not knowing how to refute it.

"If something happens at that time, Germany refuses to lower the interest rate, what should the country do? Should it be bloodletting or wait for death?"

"The Big Bang Empire is powerful."

"Strength is based on real money. If you really have that strength, why would you sell bonds?" Qin Yi had a mocking smile on his face. "And I heard that the country has a habit of defaulting on its bonds. The bonds from the Napoleon period have not been repaid yet."

The people present were in an uproar, looking at each other and discussing in low voices.

"Who is this person? It's really the waves behind the Yangtze River pushing the waves ahead."

"I don't know, haven't you seen it?"

"Sounds reasonable?"

"Oh, you didn't see Mr. Huang's face, it's very ugly."

"Mr. Huang, hurry up and make a mistake, hurry up and kill him!"

"What's right? What this pretty guy said is justified. How do you refute it?"

"I didn't expect such a young man to have such insight into the economy."

"It is said that the eldest son of the Huang family is a business genius, why have nothing to say now."

"..."

Listening to the discussions around him, Huang Chengju was furious. He took a few deep breaths, forced himself to stabilize his emotions, and looked at the assistants on the left and right.

The assistants were also at a loss, looking at each other, not knowing what to say.

"What I just said is just an inference based on economic principles." Huang Chengju said calmly, "There are many schools of economics, and if you can find a hundred different hypotheses and inferences, it doesn't explain anything. "

"If economists could really predict the economy, they would already be the richest people in the world, so why bother teaching in universities."

Qin Yi gave Huang Chengju a thumbs-up in his heart, your words are wonderful.

Economists really don't understand economics.

"I understand your desire to show off by talking about some strange and sensational talk with empty teeth." Huang Chengju said coldly, "You are too young, young man."

"Everyone, I understand everyone's concerns about the risks of wealth management products, but our Changhe Group has very strong confidence in this batch of bonds." Huang Chengju looked around and said loudly, "Moreover, we have drawn a large part of the group's liquidity, a total of five [-] million US dollars subscribed for a batch of bonds.”

"[-] million US dollars, this is our greatest confidence in this batch of bonds. After all, we are spending real money to prove our point of view, unlike some people who just say some sensational remarks to discredit others."

After finishing speaking, Huang Chengju looked at Qin Yi with mocking eyes.

"Clap clap clap!"

Qin Yi clapped his hands, "Young Master Huang is right, if you want to convince others, you'd better use real money."

"In this case, why don't we just make a bet and let the guests present be a joint witness." Qin Yi took out a check in his pocket, "Here is 1000 million, which is all my deposits. The family is safe and sound, and the 1000 million will be donated to the charity fund in the name of Mr. Huang."

"1000 million?!" Huang Chengju snorted coldly, "Then I'll bet [-] million!"

Everyone present was in an uproar, their spirits were uplifted, and their eyes were full of inexplicable light.

The banquet was worth the price of admission.

　There is still a chapter being coded, it’s [-]th, try hard to add more code words, ask for a monthly ticket
　　
　
(End of this chapter)