1949 I am from the future

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【272】Three-level circulation and capital accumulation

After more than two hours of flight, the No. 301 Li-2 passenger plane was quite stable at Shenyang Airport. The Premier took Xiaoqiang here to transfer to a car and headed for Anshan, which is more than 90 kilometers away.

After listening to Xiaoqiang talking about diamonds for money on the plane, the Prime Minister began to feel very happy, but after riding in the two classic Buick cars of the Shenyang Municipal Party Committee, his old man frowned again.

The Prime Minister leaned on the back of the white cloth-covered car seat and said: "Xiaoqiang, the Beijing 212 jeep production line you purchased last time is estimated to be at least half a year away from being put into production, and when the production capacity increases to meet the needs of the whole country, at least It will take another three years. Most of our domestic cars are already old, and the spare parts are also very tight. They are all dismantling and replacing the old ones. Make up for it. Originally, the central government planned to import 500 cars from the Soviet Union and Poland, but now we have put this plan on hold.”

After speaking, the Prime Minister looked sideways at Xiaoqiang.

Sitting next to the prime minister, Xiaoqiang quickly nodded sideways and said:

"Prime Minister, it's because I didn't do my job well. Next time I will definitely buy a batch of cars. The reason why I didn't buy a car before was because I was a little uncertain about which brand to buy. You know, the cars of later generations are all It’s an electronic fuel injection engine. I’m afraid it’s hard to repair this thing after buying it, and it’s easy to leak secrets. If foreign friends see it and want to buy two back, should we give it or not? But as the saying goes, the problem is forced The reforms that come out are the reforms that are really needed. When I go back this time, I will definitely solve the car problem.”

The Prime Minister nodded in satisfaction, and joked: "Every time I talk to you, I can learn something new. The reforms that are forced out of problems are the reforms that are really needed. Hehe, it's interesting. Xiaoqiang, The prime minister is now increasingly inseparable from you."

Xiaoqiang smirked and said: "Prime Minister, if you have work, just ask me to do it, I am happy to do it."

The Prime Minister smiled and said: "Well, you can't do it even if you don't want to. You know, I was shy and begged Mr. Wu Yifang for you to marry a wife. You won over the eldest girl, you said, shouldn't you work harder?"

Xiaoqiang hadn't seen Meng Sisi recently, and he had been thinking about it all the time. He was overjoyed when he heard this, and asked with concern: "Prime Minister, Sisi's problem has been solved?"

The Prime Minister smiled and said: "You are in a hurry. It has been resolved. She is just a child who doesn't know the world. If you explain the problem clearly, it will be over. You two will live well in the future. Don't let me worry about it."

As he spoke, the Prime Minister lovingly pressed his hand on Xiaoqiang's.

"Well, Prime Minister, don't worry, hehe, hehe." Xiao Qiang laughed smirking happily.

The Prime Minister saw that there was still more than two hours' drive on the road, so he started chatting.

"Xiaoqiang, what do you think of the future economic development?"

Xiaoqiang said: "Prime Minister, your topic is too big, I can only talk nonsense, if you don't make sense, don't blame me."

The Prime Minister smiled and said, "I want to hear your nonsense, so you can just say it."

So Xiaoqiang said cheerfully: "We are now in the transitional period from an agricultural society to an industrial society, and the economic development is basically in the first-level reproduction cycle with food, clothing and general daily necessities as the main consumption objects. Food, food and use are three basic needs.

After the farmers pay the public grain, they sell the excess grain and get income in exchange for industrial products; factories produce industrial products and sell them, and pay taxes; stores sell industrial products and pay taxes again.Public food and taxes support all operations of our country.

But at present, because our industrial production capacity is almost zero, and the only ones are extremely inefficient, the purchasing power of our farmers and workers' real wages is very low, and the monthly wages can only meet some daily necessities, which can be described as stretched. , which is "poor".

Once we complete the initial industrialization and enter the industrial society, the prices of industrial products will drop greatly, and the income of the people will increase. Everyone's wages can completely buy enough clothing, food, and daily necessities. This is "sufficiency".

At this time, Western countries have entered the second-level reproduction cycle with housing and automobiles, using bulk industrial products such as housing and automobiles to release the remaining purchasing power of ordinary people to drive continued economic development.

Regarding housing, Prime Minister, let’s not learn from the Soviet Union’s all-free housing policy, which has no other benefits than dragging ourselves down.We are completely incapable of providing bulk commodities such as housing for free. A wealthy Chinese society cannot be built immediately in dozens or even 100 years, but it is the accumulation of hundreds of years.

If we insist on being big, we will only end up with unfair egalitarianism. Scientists and ordinary salesmen live in the same house of 10 square meters per capita. This seems fair, but it is actually very unfair.

Therefore, our government should gradually cancel the welfare housing allocation after the establishment of sufficient construction companies. We should build a large number of low-rent housing, so that low-income groups can have extremely cheap housing. A commodity comes to market in exchange for money.In this way, people of all income levels can get their own satisfactory housing.We should also encourage the consumption of motorcycles and even automobiles, so as to stimulate the development of related industries and allow the country to receive more tax revenue.

The advantage of the second cycle is that housing and automobiles, such as housing and transportation consumption, can greatly promote the industrial development of steel, precision machinery, and large-scale engineering equipment. The stronger the consumption capacity, the larger the industrial scale, the larger the industrial scale, and the production The higher the efficiency, the lower the cost, which is a virtuous circle.

Once we have high efficiency and low cost, we will be able to have export competitiveness, and then we will be able to stimulate the development of shipping, transportation and other industries.This is another virtuous cycle.

Western countries take advantage of technological advantages, production efficiency advantages, and cost advantages to regard steel, construction, and automobiles as the three pillar industries, and obtain funds from all over the world to achieve rapid development. Americans have been eating these three industries until the 80s. The large-scale rise of the industry has gradually got rid of the complete dependence on the three.

Then talk about the third cycle.After the 70s, with the gradual maturity and industrial application of a large number of new technologies such as electronic technology, new materials, and numerical control machining, under the strong capital accumulation brought by the three pillar industries of large-scale industrialization, Western developed countries began to Industrial upgrading from industrialization to informatization, transformation from a developed industrialized society to an informationized society.

This is a new technological revolution no less than the industrial revolution caused by the birth of the steam engine, and its characteristic is that it attaches great importance to relevant high-tech research to serve the development of information technology and related industries.All kinds of new products and new services emerge as the times require, emerging one after another.The continuous rapid improvement of technology has led to somersault-like improvement and refurbishment of product performance and service scope almost every year, thereby stimulating consumption and attracting people's surplus income for consumption.

Thus, the economy develops again at a high speed in the third cycle, and the development of the country seems to repeat and never end.

However, in the final analysis, all this is the development of science and technology and the reserve of talents.

Prime Minister, I think that if China wants to start from a poor and white agricultural society and catch up with the developed countries in the world, it must complete industrialization at the highest speed.This means that it will take us 300 years or less to complete the nearly 30 years of industrialization in the West.In this way, when the West starts to try to enter the third cycle, we can be on the same starting line with them. "

The resolute face of the Prime Minister became serious, and he said decisively: "Xiaoqiang, we Chinese Communist Party members are confident that we can complete the industrialization of the West in 30 years! Do you have any suggestions in this regard?"

Xiao Qiang said: "After much deliberation and deliberation, I feel that technological development and talent reserves are, in the final analysis, a problem of capital accumulation.

The cultivation of college students costs money, and the research and production of scientific research projects also cost money. We only had 1949 college students in 11.7, and we need to expand year by year to 2011 million students in 2144, which is two hundred times Expand!How much does the country spend?It is simply astronomical!

As for all kinds of new equipment and infrastructure investment, no amount of money is enough!

The accumulation of capital by Western powers relies on continuous plunder and exploitation from colonies for hundreds of years. The history of Western industrial development is the history of a robber's fortune. Of course, we will not learn from imperialism.

As a result, there are only two paths left for our capital accumulation. One path is to engage in a domestic scissors gap between industry and agriculture, and use agriculture to subsidize industrial development.Another way is to export industrial products and use foreign trade to accumulate capital.

The first path is more difficult, and impossible without a closed, self-protecting market.

The second path sounds beautiful, but it is difficult to achieve.We use the export of agricultural products to accumulate capital, how much is that thing worth?For the export of industrial products, we either cannot produce them, or we cannot manufacture them well. We managed to produce a qualified one, but the cost is higher than the other party. In the end, we still have to use the difference between industry and agriculture to subsidize the industry and drive down the export price of industrial products. "

Xiaoqiang swallowed his saliva, and continued to talk: "Export-oriented capital accumulation has another advantage. While making money from others, it can also suppress other people's industrial development. But of course other countries cannot accept such a one-sided trade surplus, so We also need to import, so that the amount of imports is roughly equal to the amount of exports, so that it is relatively fair.

However, what we import are agricultural products, and the profit margin of exporting industrial products is much higher than that of imported agricultural products, and the higher the technological content, the higher the profit. Therefore, the money we earn is of course higher than that of imported agricultural products. There are many opponents.Of course, there is a prerequisite for doing so, that is, we must open up the market to each other.And this puts forward a requirement for us, that is, the industrial products sold in our country are cheaper than imported ones, and they are of better quality, more varieties, and higher technological content. "