hollywood billionaire

Chapter 466: Election Aftermath (Part )
"So, when is Kihoon going to New York?"

Jordan Bromley was driving his newly acquired Jaguar F-Pace steadily on Santa Monica Boulevard, while sneaking glances at Han Yi who was sitting in the passenger seat out of the corner of his eye.

Jordan has a Mercedes-Benz S-Class, and it seems that every successful lawyer will collect a Porsche 911. Strictly speaking, they are all a level higher than Jaguar's SUV. But the F-Pace was only released last year, and it was only delivered to users in the United States in May this year. Jordan only got the classic blue model he reserved three weeks ago.

He was still in the honeymoon period with it and hadn't touched the cow ladies in the garage for a long time.

"He cleared his entire December schedule and even told me that if necessary, he could go to New York on Christmas Day."

Han Yi withdrew his gaze from the phone screen and answered.

Today is November 2016, 11. It is his birthday and also the third day after the US election.

This land, which is already in such a state of chaos, is still splitting at an accelerated rate.

"We're waiting for Jerry Nadler's schedule. He's got a lot on his plate lately, you know."

There are 435 congressional districts and 435 seats for representatives. Basically, none of them is more secure than Jerry Nadler's seat. In the 2016 House of Representatives election for New York's 10th Congressional District, Jerry Nadler won 192371 votes, with a huge gap of 78.1% to 21.9%, easily ending the election whose outcome was already doomed.

No one thought there would be any surprises in this constituency, and all media marked New York's 10th Congressional District as dark blue in advance, with a note next to it: "Safe Democratic seat." The Republicans basically did not struggle at all, sending a conservative member of the party, Philip Rosenthal, who had never held any congressional position, as cannon fodder.

This guy has not proposed any new policies on national defense, security, free markets, and welfare reform. He only repeats empty Republican clichés such as "When America retreats, evil will move in. The best hope for maintaining domestic peace and world stability is for the United States to continue to be a true global superpower," "The free market is the best economic system to date for creating wealth and prosperity," and "The welfare system is the biggest threat to the long-term solvency of the United States."

The only thing that can be called a clear political stance is that Philip Rosenthal strongly opposes the Iran Nuclear Agreement, which Jerry Nadler once supported, and claims that Jerry's political attitude will endanger the survival of Israel as a Jewish state. But such words may have some effect on non-Jewish opponents, but it is too naive to want to deal with the only "one of us" in the US Congress who graduated from a Jewish seminary.

It was precisely because his opponent was so weak this time that Jerry Nadler did not even appear in his own constituency to canvass for votes. Most of the time, he stayed in Washington, D.C., to campaign for congressmen in other constituencies that he supported.

Although he is not the whip or deputy whip of the Democratic Party, does not hold a position in the national party headquarters, and is not the chairman of the Democratic caucus, this does not prevent Jerry Nadler from using his status as a senior congressman and his deep political influence on the blue side to weave a solid network of allies for himself that can stand together with him.

Among them is the widely favored political rising star, Reuben Kihune.

"Indeed... this election was terrible for the Democratic Party." Jordan thought for a moment and said, "Although Kihune won, many members of Congress supported by Jerry suffered defeat, including many seats in New York State, which were lost to the Republicans. From the House of Representatives to the Senate to the governorship, no result can be called satisfactory. Even if there is an improvement over the last election, it is because the results of the last midterm election were too bad. Not to mention the presidential election... It's not an exaggeration to describe it as a nightmare."

"Isn't it? The DNC should be in chaos by now."

Han Yi deeply agreed with Jordan's comments. In fact, after November 11, almost everyone who paid attention to the US election held the same view - after experiencing an unexpected and devastating defeat, the Democratic Party inevitably fell into chaos and confusion.

How did they lose?

Several days have passed since the election, and many people are still asking this question over and over again on social media.

"Now that we're talking about this, what do you think of the results of this presidential election?" At a red light, Jordan stepped on the brakes and turned to look at his foreign clients. "I'm curious, from a foreigner's perspective, how do you view this country after experiencing this complete miracle... or complete joke - whatever you want to call it."

"I feel this is not a question I should answer." Han Yi responded very cautiously. "I can only say that, unlike Rotenberg's prediction, the size of the dice in this game was not determined in advance."

Three months ago, Stuart Rotenberg, a well-known American political analyst, published an opinion article in the Washington Post, claiming that the Republican presidential candidate would need a miracle to win the election.

Rotenberg said that although it is politically incorrect to use the phrase "the die is cast", the election actually ended on August 2016, 8.

At the time, an NBC News-Wall Street Journal poll showed the former secretary of state leading by 9 points, a Washington Post-ABC News survey found her ahead by 8 points, and a poll from the most Republican-leaning Fox News showed her ahead by a full 10 points.

The Democratic candidate's support is as high as 37% in the NBC News-Wall Street Journal poll and 48% in the Washington Post-ABC News poll, while the Republican candidate's support is much lower, at 28% and 34% in the two polls, respectively.

The Democratic candidate's unfavorable rating was 53% in the NBC-Wall Street Journal poll and 50% in the Washington Post-ABC News poll. The Republican candidate's unfavorable rating was surprisingly high compared to his opponent - 61% and 63% in the two polls, respectively. Clearly, registered voters have a much higher net positive rating for the Democratic candidate than for the Republican candidate.

Even different polls consistently show that about 11% of Republican voters have decided to support the Democratic Party because they are disappointed with the words and deeds of their party's presidential candidate.

That's more support than any Democratic candidate has received from opponents in the past four elections.

To sum up Stuart Rotenberg's point of view in one sentence - how can you lose when a dragon hits your face?
"I remember how many articles said the campaign was over and how many media outlets were calling her 'the first lady.'" Jordan Bromley raised her hands. "And yet, people still think lawyers are the ones who speak freely."

"Has the media paralyzed the public's rationality? Maybe." Han Yi smiled, "But don't forget that the Democratic Party's campaign office also made a lot of stupid moves. Remember Arizona?"

Twelve days before the election, with 12 states already opening early voting, the Democratic presidential candidate's campaign office issued a statement announcing that the former Secretary of State would launch a campaign in Arizona. Based on past campaign history, this decision by the former Secretary of State's campaign team was obviously irrational, even absurd, because Arizona has always been a red state with a solid and strong Republican presence. In 1964, when Lyndon Johnson, the advocate of the "Great Society," pinned "dangerous extremist" Barry Goldwater to the ground and won of the states, Arizona was still one of the six states that firmly supported the Republican Party, and the only state outside the Deep South where the Republican Party won the electoral votes.

Arizona's deep red is evident.

However, the overwhelming number of polls before the 2016 election clearly gave the former secretary of state a shot in the arm to enter the "Grand Canyon State." The average of the polls showed that the Democratic Party was leading the Republican Party by nearly 6 percentage points nationwide. In contrast, in 2012, the black president who defeated Mitt Romney only led by 4 percentage points.

State polls show that the Democratic presidential candidate is leading in key battlegrounds such as Pennsylvania and North Carolina. Even the data team that does analysis for the Republican campaign team admits that as of October 10, their chances of winning are less than 27%.

What a concept! This winning rate, if placed in the NFL, is only better than the San Francisco 49ers and Cleveland Browns, who have been desperate this season. The former has 2 wins and 14 losses, and the latter has 1 win and 15 losses.

In other words, even if the real estate tycoon from New York were to run 15 times in a row, he might not be able to defeat his opponent.

Although the two have been called "the two most unpopular candidates in modern presidential campaign history," Donald, who has lost three consecutive presidential debates and is embroiled in various scandals including the Kahn family and the infamous Access Hollywood tape, is clearly the more unpopular one.

More importantly, don't forget that a Democratic candidate has only won the state once in the past 64 years, and the person who won was the president's husband, the former secretary of state.

Therefore, the complacent former Secretary of State began to plan to get involved in Arizona. What she wanted to do was not only to hold the blue wall and win the swing state. She also wanted to climb over the blue wall, change the color of the red state, and make the title of "the first female president in history" more valuable. "Looking back, the move to march into Arizona was indeed stupid. But you know the situation at the time. Her chance of winning was over 90%. More than one authoritative organization predicted this, including 538, Politico... The New York Times released a forecast model. On October 10, the probability of the Democratic Party winning even reached 27%. Of course, the map will not be all blue, but the poll data in each swing state seems to be quite stable. So they will naturally do this-tell people that they are going deep into enemy territory, so that public opinion will think that you are winning a hearty victory."

"In my opinion, if James Comey hadn't intervened ... Arizona could have really turned blue."

The James Comey that Jordan Bromley refers to is none other than the current FBI Director, a registered Republican who was nominated by Barack.

Although he claimed to remain neutral in the 2016 election and refused to admit his Republican leanings, Comey did use a killer move with a far-reaching impact at a critical moment.

Just 20 minutes after the Democratic campaign announced the Arizona decision, Rep. Jason Chaffetz, R-Utah, chairman of the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee, tweeted: "The FBI Director just notified me that 'The FBI has been notified of the existence of emails relevant to the investigation.' Case will be reopened."

The investigation here refers to the famous email-gate incident. The former Secretary of State was caught in a whirlpool of public opinion because he used a private email server for official public communications instead of using the official State Department email account on a federal server. He was attacked by the Republicans for disregarding national security and claiming that he violated federal law, especially Section 18 of Title 1924 of the United States Code, which involves the crime of unauthorized removal and retention of confidential documents or materials.

Since the New York Times report on March 2015, 3, the email scandal has become one of the most criticized weaknesses of Democratic candidates. In order to eliminate the impact, her campaign team spent a lot of effort and a year and a half to finally deal with Comey, who publicly stated during questioning by the U.S. House Oversight and Government Reform Committee that the former Secretary of State did handle confidential information improperly, but that was due to "extreme carelessness" rather than criminal intent and should not be prosecuted.

I thought the storm had passed and everything was calm, but I didn't expect Comey to save his trump card for last.

"In an unrelated case, the FBI learned of the existence of emails that appeared relevant to our investigation," Comey wrote in a public letter released late on Oct. 10. "After being briefed on this unrelated case, I agreed that the FBI should take appropriate investigative steps to allow investigators to review the emails, determine whether they contained classified information, and assess their significance to our investigation."

Almost immediately after the announcement, Republican candidates holding campaign rallies in New Hampshire praised the FBI's decision to review the case.

"Hillary Clinton is corrupt at a level we have never seen before, and we must not allow her to bring her criminal machinations into the Oval Office," he said.

From that moment on, the Democratic Party's momentum of rapid progress came to an abrupt halt.

Until then, the Republican presidential candidate had been having a terrible October. Three presidential debate losses and his famous "grab them by the pussy" quote had his campaign in damage control mode, with a different woman seemingly popping up every day to accuse the New York real estate tycoon of inappropriate behavior.

As of mid-October, Clinton’s lead in the RealClearPolitics national polling average had jumped to 10 points — the same margin by which Obama beat McCain in 7. An NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist poll of Pennsylvania shows Democrats leading Republicans by double digits in the crucial state.

But starting October 10, the offensive and defensive positions changed. The Democratic candidate's 28-point lead in the national poll average narrowed to less than 7 points.

By the last day of October, the impact of the FBI's last-minute attack was still spreading.

James Comey, the FBI director, dominates the headlines and the evening news almost 24 hours a day.

The New York Times said, "Democrats are trying to block Republicans and emails."

"Get ready for another four years of email scandal," conservative columnist Mark Thiessen wrote in the Washington Post.

The Los Angeles Times said: "Is the new scandal the same as the old one? In both campaigns, the controversy did not have much impact on voters, but the reopened email investigation has become the latest test for the Democratic Party."

“Email Review Underway,” ran the headline on NBC Nightly News.

"FBI search for emails" was also the focus of ABC's extensive coverage that night.

Between October 10 and November 28, nearly half of the evening news headlines on the three major broadcast networks were about "Emailgate."

Therefore, after the election suffered a Waterloo, the Democratic Party unanimously believed that James Comey's last-minute counterattack was the X factor that derailed the election.

"Does it really matter whether Arizona turns blue? Even if she gets all 11 electoral votes, what impact will it have?" Han Yi shook his head. "Wisconsin, Michigan, Florida, Pennsylvania, all the battleground states that cannot be lost have been lost. Moreover, is the impact of Comey's reopening of the investigation really that great? Yes, I don't deny that he must have received some promises at the last minute, so he announced the reopening of the investigation twelve days before the election, and closed the investigation the day before the election, saying that no new strong evidence was found, which caused a lot of trouble for the Democratic Party. These are all indisputable facts."

"But can Comey's public statement really turn seven out of 538 swing states red? On election day, 75, Politico, the New York Times, ABC News... almost all media prediction models still put the Democratic Party's chance of winning at around %. Instead of blaming the FBI for reinvestigating a real case, perhaps the Democrats should consider who they ignored, causing the poll results to be so far away from reality."

"You sound like an outside Republican," Jordan quipped.

"I'm just a rational foreigner who has not been deceived." Han Yi curled his lips. "It has always been difficult to reach low-income and low-education voters through opinion polls, and they are unwilling to reach them, so the silent majority has never had a chance to speak out. In addition, the media's constant suppression, ridicule and even discrimination against Trump supporters have also kept this group of people silent. They will not reveal their true political inclinations in telephone surveys or even online surveys because they are afraid of getting into unnecessary trouble."

"If this witch hunt continues, there will be no more real polls from now on. When society is so polarized ... don't be surprised if there's more craziness in the next four, eight or even 12 years."

"I mean ... look at what's going on right now, are these polls just skewed at the presidential level?"

"For the governorships, we thought we could win six or seven or even seven or eight of the twelve states like we did in 2012, narrowing the gap with the Republicans. But we didn't expect that only one red state, North Carolina, turned blue, while three blue states turned red. The score went from 31:18 to 33:16."

“We thought we could control the Senate, but in the end we fell short, with only a net gain of two seats, and the Republicans still control it.”

"Not to mention the House of Representatives. The gap was too big to be the majority party in the first place. But before the election, most media predicted that the Democrats could at least catch up and get close to 200 seats. In the end, after so many elections, they only got 2014 more seats than the 188 seats after the 6 mid-term elections."

"The opponent has taken the majority in the Senate and the House of Representatives, as well as the key to the White House. I don't know if they are going to blame all of this on James Comey alone."

"The Democrats have lost too many seats in the past eight years." Jordan Bromley, who leans more toward the Democratic Party and whose connections on Capitol Hill are mostly Democratic, had to admit this. "It's amazing to think about it. In 2008, we still had 254 seats in the House of Representatives and a huge advantage of 60 seats in the Senate."

"There is always a price to pay for giving up the silent majority." Han Yi shrugged and smiled, "But hey, it is precisely with the all-round failure as a backdrop that Kihun's victory becomes more precious, isn't it?"

"That's true," Jordan nodded in response. "It helped the Democratic Party turn from red to blue in key congressional battleground states, and it also gave them a 5.6% lead..."

"Reuben Kihoon's title as a rising star in Democratic politics is becoming more and more secure."

(End of this chapter)