Rekindle 2003

Chapter 549 Green Plum Boiled Wine and Discussing Heroes (6)

After taking a look at Niu Qiangdong, who paused to think about something, Qingyun lit a cigarette and smoked it slowly.

“In fact, this is essentially because the current industry is so good, money is so easy to make, and they don’t have to worry about not having customers, but their own supply is limited, so they choose to select customers.

This is a typical practice of small businessmen. Once the industry environment is good, they only focus on making immediate money, but ignore the rapid growth of the industry to occupy the blank market.

Because only occupying the blank market is the top priority at this stage.

Giving up on customers means cultivating more competitors and giving up on growth. Only customer needs can force companies to continuously improve their capabilities and technologies. "

After Niu Qiangdong calmed down and digested it for a while, Qing Yun continued, "The third stage of the industry cycle is the maturity stage.

At this stage, the ceiling of the industry has begun to appear. The emergence of the ceiling means the arrival of the maturity period of this market.

The cycle characteristic of this stage is that the theoretical consumption quantity of customers is close to the peak, regardless of the base number of customers or the frequency and amount of customer purchases.

At this stage, the market size of the industry is no longer growing rapidly and the market is becoming saturated.

But just like farmers farming, the balance between supply and demand is a very collective behavior that cannot be precisely controlled. Usually, the expansion rate of the entire industry's production capacity will soon exceed the total demand. At this time, the critical point will be slower. Deviation occurs slowly.

All markets have ceilings. There can be no market in the world that will never have a ceiling. What’s even more disgusting is that this ceiling will move up and down. This is the trend.

For example, last year's birth population was 1647 million, so the corresponding ceiling for the number of new kindergarten enrollees in three years' time is more than 1600 million. This number may become 1700 million due to early enrollment, but it certainly cannot become 3000 Ten thousand.

This is the ceiling of the kindergarten industry in 2006, and also the industry ceiling of milk powder and infant products in 2006.

As our fertility policy continues to be implemented and in accordance with the country's macro-control to achieve the vision of optimal natural resource carrying, the number of newborns will gradually decrease.

By 2022, the total number of newborns will be 800 million. At that time, the national population will reach an inflection point, and then decrease by a gap of 1000 million per year.

Having said this, Qing Yun curled her lips helplessly, "At this stage, there are also several taboos.

The first one is to expand production capacity.

Lao Niu, let me ask you, when is the most aggressive time to expand production capacity? The first half of the growth period or the second half? "

Niu Qiangdong thought for a moment and said, "The second half of the growth period."

Qing Yun smiled, "Why?"

Niu Qiangdong said firmly, "Human nature!

At the beginning of the growth period, a small group of people made money in the early market. In fact, no one believed it.

When more and more people make money in this market and there are enough examples around them, people believe it.

This will cause a great spread and fission effect, so often at the end, it is the time when the number of people entering the event is the largest. "

Qing Yun nodded, "This is true in any industry. It's hard for others to understand, but you and I come from rural areas and have a deeper understanding."

Thinking about the sometimes indistinguishable operations of the folks in the village, Da Qiangzi also sighed helplessly, "In our village, there were only a few people growing garlic in the beginning. After making money, many people actually did it. I don't believe it.

The next year, the relatives of these people followed suit and also made money.

In the third year, almost everyone in our village set aside their fields to grow garlic in September.

then……"

He spread his hands and said, "That year, during the Chinese New Year, although people did not starve to death, almost all families did not even have meat on New Year's Eve."

Qing Yun shook his head after hearing this, "Our village also suffered from the same kind of disaster when growing garlic sprouts. This is actually equivalent to transitioning from maturity to the next stage in a short period of time, with surplus and extreme imbalance in the relationship between supply and demand. balance.

Therefore, the prices of garlic and garlic sprouts rose and fell sharply in several years, and then returned to equilibrium.

However, this is unavoidable in all business economies. "

The market is a baton.

But sometimes this baton is a bit blind, and total social resources will always be wasted.

How to make the baton 'smarter' is not something private entrepreneurs like Qing Yun should think about.

"Their purpose of expanding production capacity is to seize market share. But the efficiency ratio of expansion at this stage is declining rapidly. From a long-term perspective, it is more beneficial not to expand than to expand, and some ineffective positions caused by the rapid expansion period should even be eliminated. "

Having said this, Qing Yun paused and clinked glasses with Niu Qiangdong again.

His attitude towards drinking is "A child must become famous but must be drunk", which does not mean that he must drink excessively, but he must drink to the fullest.

What's more, the beer has been boiled, so the alcohol doesn't really matter. What's more, Da Qiangzi is famous for his large drinking capacity, so Qing Yun just went all out.

Niu Qiangdong was also honest. While drinking, he quickly recorded in his notebook.

However, he still felt a little regretful.

I should buy a voice recorder.

“The second biggest taboo at this stage is blind optimism.

I felt that the growth period was good. After I made a lot of money, I started to feel good. I felt that I was invincible and the future was bright. This business could last for a long time.

I don’t need to say more about this taboo. You know the consequences very well. "

Qing Yun glanced at Da Qiangzi, who had a slightly red face, playfully. This was what Da Qiangzi did when he was making a tape transfer recorder.

After a classic price war to defeat competitors, Niu Qiangdong has occupied 60% of the tape transfer and recorder market and has a net worth of nearly million.

However, at this moment, the tape transfer and recorder has reached the end of its history. Added to the impact of the special period of the great cold, Daqiangzi's business has taken a sharp turn, and it has to start to transform.

Qing Yun was not smiling. People will become angry if they are extremely embarrassed. He continued, "Third, strategic mistake."

However, Niu Qiangdong's expression changed.

He felt that Qing Yun was still talking about him.

However, Qing Yun's subsequent words dispelled his inner shame, "I said before, whether your product scores 80 or 85 points, it actually doesn't mean much in the growth period. Occupying the market is the most important thing.

However, in the mature stage, upgrading becomes crucial, and you must quickly complete the upgrade of your own products and markets.

why?

At this stage, you need to 'dig a hole deep and accumulate food widely', constantly dig deeper and broaden your 'moat', store enough money, tie yourself tightly to customers, and constantly improve your products and services to satisfy customers. satisfaction continues to improve.

Simply put, this is a strategic shift period.

At this stage, entrepreneurs need to quickly change from the expansion mindset of racing and enclosing land to the defensive mindset of 'digging holes deeply and accumulating grain widely'.

Whether they can win in the next stage of fierce competition largely determines whether entrepreneurs at this stage can quickly raise their business barriers. So, why is this? "

Qing Yun asked and answered himself, "Because the fourth stage has arrived, the integration stage."

He took a deep breath, and then smiled, "This stage... is a raging war.

Why does a consolidation period occur?

Oversupply.

The industry market ceiling has been reached.

This is just like your successful business war in 2001.

The tape recorder market in China is only so big, and it has been filled by you. If a new channel vendor suddenly appears, how can it survive? All it can do is rob you.

For him, the easiest way to steal is to engage in a price war.

Lao Niu, you have more say than me in this regard. Come and tell me about it. I am really curious about the specific story of that year. "

Niu Qiangdong looked a little dazed when he heard this. To be honest, this was the biggest gamble he had made in his life so far.

As he told it, the price war that year was slowly unveiled in front of Qing Yun.

The price war that Niu Qiangdong encountered in 2001 was very simple, but it was extremely fierce.

Here's the thing:

There is a big boss in Yizhou Island whose Ride Factory is the world's largest optical disc factory and has good relations with all recorders and OEM manufacturers in the world, so his son wants to be a general agent in BJ.

This directly conflicts with Jingdong. The manufacturers think that Jingdong is good, but they don't dare to offend Rhende, so they simply get along with Xinni and get two general agents.

However, there are two general agents working for the same goods, and the young man from Yizhou Island is coming in a menacing manner. He holds US$500 million and vows to overthrow Jingdong.

Mr. Yidao was also in his 20s at the time, about the same age as Da Qiangzi. They were both strong-blooded and would see red with a bayonet in one battle.

Mr. Yidao was angry and told all his subordinates: 'It will always be 50 yuan cheaper than Jingdong! If Jingdong sells it for 50 yuan, I will give it away for free! '

The price war has reached the level of a Verton meat grinder. A Sakura Yamaha recorder with a purchase price of 2700 yuan is sold by Jingdong for 1700 yuan and Yizhoudao Gongzi for 1650 yuan!

Anyone who has done business knows that when encountering such a fierce price war, there is generally no good way. Either the manufacturer will mediate, or it will compete with others. In the end, whoever can't hold on will get out.

The price war has reached the point of cash flow war.

Daqiangzi only has a net worth of less than 500 million, and the other party claims to be holding million US dollars in capital and will not stop until it defeats Jingdong. This is a dead end.

But the Great Qiangzi is the Great Qiangzi after all. When everyone thought he could not win, the Great Qiangzi showed his sword.

Despite the difficulties, he went ahead and opened a shop opposite Mr. Yi Dao's shop!

If you lower it by 50, I will lower it by 50!

Look who is ruthless!

This kind of cruelty made Mr. Yidao, who had a Digua accent, feel very uncomfortable and miserable.

After all, killing one thousand enemies would cost him eight hundred. Although he could afford the loss, the loss would hurt his body.

But is the Great Qiangzi a brainless person who only knows how to fight ruthlessly?

If that were the case, he would not have had subsequent success.

When the recorder was sold at a loss of more than 1000 yuan, he secretly ordered his employees to recommend it to customers when they meet them, saying that they are 50 yuan cheaper than me!

When the customer saw it, he said, yes, Yidao Gongzi is cheaper than Jingdong for the same product, buy it!

This is a big gamble by the Great Qiangzi!

The Great Qiangzi knew that he couldn't beat the other party in a head-to-head fight, but he had to fight.

What should I do?

Simply, while showing a tough attitude, let the opponent bleed violently!

Just let the other party sell hard. The more you sell, the more you will lose!

He was making a big bet: Mr. Yi Dao, who claimed to have 500 million US dollars, didn't dare to continue working so hard!

Moreover, Da Qiangzi secretly sent his associates to pretend to be customers, constantly getting goods from Mr. Yi Dao, and then selling them himself at a loss of 50 yuan.

This move instantly made him lose more than 1000 yuan per unit to only losing 50 yuan per unit.

A month later, Mr. Yizhoudao retreated with a loss of nearly 3000 million yuan.

But don't think that Da Qiangzi is comfortable. He lost nearly three million, but Young Master Yidao's loss was ten times that of him.

In the final analysis, doing business is about making money. If the loss was like this, and he didn’t understand Jingdong’s strength, and his relationship with various manufacturers was ruined, Mr. Yi Dao’s father saw that his son was doing such a bad job in business, so he still withdrew. Bar.

Big Qiangzi is launching a fierce price war in the short term, making the other party bleed, and betting that the other party will not dare to fight again!

He won!

However, if you win your career, you will lose your love.

Because the beating process was so miserable, 'Jingquan''s parents did not want 'Jingquan' to follow Niu Qiangdong to beg for food one day in the future, so they resolutely took action and must beat the mandarin duck.

Qing Yun, who had become addicted to gossip, saw that Da Qiangzi's mood was not right, so he quickly changed the topic, "At this stage, everyone is in such a painful way.

The total industry demand has stabilized, but the supply is obviously abundant.

The market has begun to enter a stage where there are too many people and too little food.

At this time, any company that wants to expand its territory can only spend several times its efforts to steal customers and markets from others.

For a time, offensive and defensive warfare became the mainstream behavior in the industry. All market participants were eyeing other people's customers, and they were also cautiously guarding their own customers.

This war is protracted and often begins with the crudest price war.

Soon, the price war will be unstoppable, and a cash flow defense war will be launched, that is, work first, and then get money.

Then, they began to fight for products and services, and competed by continuously upgrading products and services, and the costs increased accordingly.

In the end, it is a comprehensive and bloody battle, with the goal of eliminating opponents and sacrificing profits and cash flow in order to maintain market share.

Thousands of companies can only achieve final industry peace by deciding the winner. Many entrepreneurs find it difficult to adapt and fall into anxiety and suffering.

Therefore, a period of consolidation is bound to come.

When the integration period comes, there are also several taboos. "

Niu Qiangdong, who was still a little sad at first, suddenly focused his attention when he heard Qing Yun's words.

He actually fell at this stage.

……

(End of this chapter)