African Entrepreneurship Records 2

Chapter 1573 Preparing for War
Tete is a typical riverside city in East Africa. For a long time, its economic center has been concentrated on the north bank, mainly due to the characteristics of its resource distribution. However, the south bank is equally important to Tete.

The new port of Tete will be located on its south bank, and the Tete shipyard will also be located in the port area on the south bank, mainly due to the better water depth conditions on the south bank.

In conclusion, Tete is arguably one of the biggest winners among East African cities, as it has been able to completely reshape its transportation and infrastructure and significantly improve its development standards.

The reason it is considered one of the options is to take into account Hindai, the city at the mouth of the Zambezi River downstream. As for which city will ultimately emerge as the winner, it will depend on how well the two cities seize the opportunity, and we will only know the answer in a decade or more.

……

As the end of 1934 drew ever closer, East Africa began its settlement and statistics work ahead of schedule this year, at Ernst's special urging.

In Rhine City.

Ernst told Crown Prince Friedrich, "The international situation is becoming increasingly tense. Therefore, in order to cope with the future changes in the world, we must take stock of East Africa's assets in advance, so that East Africa can take the initiative in future international changes."

The current international situation can be described in one word: "deteriorating," with contradictions and conflicts between countries rapidly accumulating.

Europe, in particular, is a powder keg, and now the Soviet Union, Germany, and other European countries are adding more gunpowder to it.

Regardless of the Soviet Union's original intentions, its active development of the defense industry objectively caused tension in other European countries.

Germany, needless to say, has always been a major instigator of wars in Europe. Its militaristic ideology is deeply rooted, and now, with the addition of Adolf, a warmonger, it is simply out of control and has no intention of stopping.

Britain and France were not idle either, with France being the most obvious example. After all, with Germany planning to expand its military, France could not possibly remain indifferent, and Europe was entering a new round of arms race.

Meanwhile, Japan's military expansion in Asia has never ceased.

In other words, the smell of gunpowder is already strong in Eurasia, and if a full-scale war breaks out in Eurasia, it will inevitably affect the whole world.

Ernst said, "The current situation is that the global environment has been damaged, and the world is brewing an unprecedented crisis."

"When ordinary people anticipate a potential crisis, they should check their savings and assets to prepare supplies and arm themselves to ensure they can safely weather the crisis. This is even more true at the national level."

"We should even prepare for war in advance so that we are not caught off guard when necessary, and act accordingly to minimize the negative impact as much as possible."

Ernst's meaning was simple: East Africa should quietly prepare for war, which was tantamount to admitting that World War II was inevitable.

Crown Prince Frederick agreed wholeheartedly, as everyone knew that World War II was inevitable, though the exact timing was uncertain.

He asked, "Father, how many years do you think a new world war will break out?"

Ernst held up five fingers and said decisively, "If I were to predict, a new world war will inevitably break out in less than five years. At that time, war will reignite in Europe, while the war in Asia has already begun."

Here, Ernst was naturally referring to Japan's invasion of the Far Eastern Empire. He said, "Japan and the Far Eastern Empire now seem to have entered a relatively stable phase, but we all know that Japan's economic model is unsustainable."

"Japan is more extreme than Germany. After all, Germany at least has a strong economy and industry, and a larger land area than Japan. Its arable land area is even more than five times that of Japan."

Germany's conditions were arguably far better than Japan's. In 1934, the two countries had roughly the same population, both exceeding 60 million, with Germany having slightly more. However, as an island nation, Japan's terrain was predominantly mountainous, with very little usable land, while northern Germany at least had vast plains, and the south also had numerous river valleys with fertile agricultural conditions.

In terms of mineral resources, Germany has a greater advantage than Japan. At least Germany does not need to rely on imports for coal, and its iron ore production is nearly twenty times that of Japan. Of course, even so, both countries still need to import large quantities of iron ore.

However, overall, Japan's severe scarcity of resources, its large population, and its extreme development strategy have led to a highly distorted Japanese economy.

In 1934, Japan's military expenditure accounted for more than 40 percent of its government fiscal expenditure, which was unique among the major powers and firmly ranked first in the world.

Correspondingly, Japan's economy is now entirely dependent on military orders, with heavy industry growing rapidly.

This is actually quite unfortunate. Japan's light industry suffered a severe blow after the global economic crisis, especially the textile industry, whose exports shrank significantly. In other light industrial sectors, Japan also found it difficult to compete with other major powers.

Ultimately, Japan is still a learner of Europe, so its industrial development lags behind that of Europe, America, and East Africa.

Therefore, one of Japan's key advantages in international competition is its abundant and cheap labor force, which was also a major reason for the prosperity of Japan's textile industry in the past.

However, this is not the 21st century. The labor costs of other powers are not necessarily much higher than those of Japan, otherwise the global labor movement would not be so prosperous.

Lacking technological superiority and economic resources compared to other major powers, and with no significant advantage in labor costs, Japan's industrial development was forced to take a more extreme path: waging war to plunder resources and markets from overseas.

Therefore, it is not surprising that Japan has launched a war ahead of schedule and invaded the northeastern part of the Far Eastern Empire. This is the reason why Ernst said that war has already broken out in the Asian direction.

This can be seen as an "appetizer" before World War II. Once Europe also went to war, World War II would be fully formed.

Crown Prince Frederick expressed some agreement with his father's assessment: "Japan and Germany are indeed getting along very well now, and it is quite possible that they will form an alliance in the future." "In this way, the scope of World War II will be much larger than that of World War I, covering almost the entire Eurasian continent."

The possibility of an alliance between Germany and Japan is almost 100%, mainly because their interests and geopolitical complementarity are too strong, especially regarding the common enemy, the Soviet Union. The two countries have endless common topics to discuss.

The Soviet Union was inevitably an enemy of both countries. This was unavoidable. The Soviet Union had direct conflicting interests with Germany in Central and Eastern Europe. At the same time, the Soviet Union could not unite with Germany ideologically. As for the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact of the previous life, everyone knew that both sides had ulterior motives.

For Japan, the contradictions between Japan and the Soviet Union in East Asia were equally sharp. The Soviet Union would never allow Japan to completely conquer the Far Eastern empire. After all, if Japan completely gained control of the East Asian region, Japan's next target could be the Soviet Union.

Moreover, Soviet ideology was equally deadly to the Japanese elite.

Therefore, it was almost inevitable that Germany and Japan would eventually come together to deal with the common enemy, the Soviet Union. Germany needed Japan to contain the Soviet Union, while Japan needed Germany to divert the Soviet Union's main attention to Europe.

Of course, Ernst was happy to see the two countries move closer together. After all, breaking the existing international order and redistributing the spoils was an important goal for East Africa. Therefore, countries like Germany and Japan were needed to act as the vanguard. It was uncertain how much of the pie East Africa would ultimately get, but it would certainly force countries like Britain and France, which were not worthy of their positions, to relinquish the lion's share of the world market's profits.

Furthermore, the Soviet Union itself would also benefit Germany and Japan if they could weaken it, facilitating their expansion into the Middle East and Central Asia from East Africa.

This leaves the United States as East Africa's last remaining competitor, but East Africa is confident that it can gain the upper hand in the competition with the United States.

The point of conflict between East Africa and the United States is actually in the two major regions of Latin America and Europe in the future. However, neither country can monopolize these two regions.

Ernst said, "Basically, the future world order will be a three-way balance of power. We and the United States have already secured two of the spots. As for the third country, it will most likely be decided between Germany and the Soviet Union, but I am more optimistic that the Soviet Union will win in the end."

In this timeline, Germany is stronger than in the previous one, thus increasing the likelihood of Germany defeating the Soviet Union. However, Ernst still doesn't favor Germany because of this.

Given the Soviet Union's national conditions, Ernst even believed that even if East Africa and the Soviet Union were to fight each other, there would be no possibility of East Africa destroying the Soviet Union. Germany's strength was far inferior to that of East Africa, therefore, the possibility of Germany conquering the Soviet Union was slim.

Of course, Ernst's desire for the Soviet Union to achieve final victory also stemmed from practical interests: if Germany gained hegemony in Europe, East Africa would become passive.

For example, if the Suez Canal and the Strait of Gibraltar, two important sea passages, fell into German hands, it would be virtually impossible for East Africa to extend its reach into Europe.

If Germany were to unify Europe, it could truly bring the Mediterranean under its control through the former Austro-Hungarian Empire. The Soviet Union, however, would face a completely different situation. It would be difficult for the Soviet Union to even break out of the Black Sea. Therefore, even if the Soviet Union were to win, it would not threaten East Africa's interests and influence in Europe.

Ernst said, "A weakened Soviet Union is incapable of unifying Europe. Therefore, I hope that in the future, Germany can weaken the Soviet Union to the greatest extent possible. A strong Germany will naturally become the leader of Europe, which is not what we want to see."

Germany's geographical location places it in the heart of Europe, so if Europe were a single country, having its capital in Germany would be most appropriate. A unified Europe would clearly not be in the interest of East Africa.

The Soviet Union, on the other hand, found it difficult to expand its sphere of influence into Western and Southern Europe, even after defeating Germany. After all, both East Africa and the United States could shatter Russia's long-held dream of Europe.

Friedrich also expressed his support for Ernst's remarks, asking, "Therefore, starting the settlement and statistics ahead of schedule this year is to take stock of the national strength of East Africa, to determine how many chips we have and how to place our bets?"

Ernst nodded and said, "That's right. We need to develop a war plan and start preparing for military deployments, such as starting the production of weapons and ammunition in advance and making stockpiles."

"In this way, if East Africa becomes involved in the war in the future, we can avoid the damage to our domestic economy to some extent."

This is not Ernst's alarmist statement, but a lesson learned by the United States in the later stages of World War II. During the war, the United States' production capacity exploded and its military industry flourished, but this also laid some hidden dangers for the post-war economic recovery.

For example, the rapid expansion of industrial capacity in a short period of time led to a serious overcapacity problem in the United States after the war, and it would have to come at a great cost to try to solve this problem again.

At the same time, the wartime economy also severely impacted the US economic structure. For World War II, the United States mobilized a massive army of more than ten million soldiers. These ten million soldiers were undoubtedly the main force behind the original economic development of the United States. After all, those who could join the army were basically good sons of good families in the United States, and at the same time, they were the best young labor force.

Their deployment to the European battlefields directly led to a labor shortage in the United States. Coupled with the rampant expansion of industrial capacity in the United States, American factories hired a large number of women and ethnic minorities to work.

After the war, millions of American soldiers returned home, and they faced the problem of how to find new jobs. After all, if they wanted to find work, they had to compete with those who were already working in factories, which could easily lead to social problems.

There are also labor issues. After the war, a large number of military orders were terminated. During the war, due to labor shortages, companies generally raised wages to recruit workers. Now that the war is over, let alone high wages, it is difficult to even transform and survive. Industries that were used to wartime wage levels are also very dissatisfied with layoffs and pay cuts.

In short, mass production of troops and resources during wartime is indeed very satisfying, but after the initial excitement comes a whole host of headaches. Therefore, since Ernst knew this situation would arise, he had to make the necessary preparations.

Therefore, it is especially necessary to make arrangements in the military field in advance. For example, the production of weapons and equipment can be carried out in advance, as can personnel training, equipment research and development, logistics, and so on.

East Africa can gain more buffer time by extending its preparation period, thereby reducing the negative impact of military action on the economy and society should a future war break out.

However, there are risks involved, especially if the overall global situation deviates significantly from the trajectory of the past, which could cause East Africa's careful preparations to backfire. However, Ernst believes that the probability of such a risk is not high and is controllable. Therefore, he thinks it is entirely worthwhile for East Africa to take the gamble.

Thus, the father and son quietly decided on the long-term development direction of military expansion in East Africa, which also means that during the Eighth Five-Year Plan period in East Africa, military development will become the focus, while some large-scale livelihood projects and important infrastructure projects may be temporarily sacrificed.

(End of this chapter)