African Entrepreneurship Records 2

Chapter 1577 Good Days for the Shipbuilding Industry

Given the current state of naval development worldwide, the size of the East African navy is far from sufficient to cope with or reap the rewards of future conflicts.

"When the cannons roar, gold flows like water." The outbreak of war inevitably consumes a large amount of resources and wealth. Apart from military enterprises that may benefit in the short term, the prices of crude oil, gold, and metal materials will rise.

In particular, East Africa may face a second world war in the future, a war unprecedented in human history. If we do not prepare in advance now, we will only pay a higher price later.

Simply put, wartime is a seller's market. Prices of all kinds of goods will rise due to the demand created by the war, and many things may be unavailable even if you have the money.

Ernst said, "During the Eighth Five-Year Plan period, East Africa should begin to stockpile strategic materials, especially resources such as tungsten, rubber, and oil, so that even if they are not used, they can be resold to make a profit."

Tungsten ore is a globally scarce resource, so there's no need to elaborate. Even though the current global price of tungsten ore is high, the demand will only increase when war breaks out, and supply will fall short of demand.

East Africa's tungsten resources are not abundant, with production areas concentrated in the mountainous region between the Great Lakes and the Congo Basin.

In 1934, the world's major tungsten exporting countries were the Far Eastern Empire, Portugal, Burma, Bolivia, Spain, and Australia. Apart from these, only a few other countries had small production, which basically met their own needs. For example, East Africa and the United States, although they had reserves and mining on their own soil, still relied mainly on imports.

East Africa doesn't lack rubber, as it's a major rubber-producing region. However, rubber has always been in short supply internationally due to its wide range of applications and large demand.

While East Africa is the world's largest oil producer, a large portion of its oil extraction is located in its overseas colonies.

For example, the oil resources in the Persian Gulf and Southeast Asia could be affected during wartime. Both regions are complex areas of intertwined power and are fiercely contested by various countries.

The Persian Gulf, for example, is bordered by the Soviet Union to the north, East Africa and Britain to the south, and Germany, through the Ottoman Empire, also has a say in the region. Therefore, the security of the Persian Gulf is uncertain once war breaks out. The situation in Southeast Asia is even more complicated, as it is a gathering place for various forces, including Britain, France, the United States, East Africa, the Netherlands, and Japan.

Currently, overseas oil extraction in East Africa is mainly distributed in three places: the Middle East, Southeast Asia, and Venezuela.

The former two are likely to be threatened by war, and Venezuela is not necessarily safe either, after all, in the past, German submarines operated throughout the entire Atlantic region.

As for why East Africa now regards Germany as a potential enemy, it is not actually due to East Africa's relationship with Germany, but rather to the relationship between Japan and Germany. Japan's fate in the script of East Africa's global strategy has already been decided. Therefore, Japan's future partners will also be implicated and become enemies of East Africa.

Given the current international situation, the country most likely to become an ally of Japan is Germany.

Germany itself and East Africa do not actually have much conflict of interest. Even if Germany conquers Europe, East Africa can still barely accept it, as long as it does not expand further into North Africa and the Middle East.

Therefore, for Germany, East Africa does not necessarily have to be a battleground. The future relationship between the two countries depends entirely on Germany's future strategic choices.

However, under Adolf's leadership, relations between Germany and East Africa have worsened and continue to decline.

It is important to know that since the end of World War I, Germany has accumulated a lot of resentment towards East Africa, believing that East Africa stole Germany's wealth and colonies. Anti-East Africa sentiment has emerged in Germany. Now, this situation has been further amplified by combining with Adolf's advocacy of racial superiority.

In his book *Struggle*, Adolf clearly stated: "...there is an inconceivable cognitive error: the belief that a black or yellow person can become German because he has learned German and is willing to speak German in the future, thus becoming German. We can never clearly see that this process of 'Germanization' is actually a process of 'de-Germanization'...this process is not 'Germanization,' but rather destroys the vitality of the German nation..."

These words resonated deeply with East Africans, given that East Africa is a mixed-race country that promotes German cultural identity.

According to him, the so-called Germanization of East Africa becomes "de-Germanization," and East Africa will never become a German country.

However, Adolf's ideas still gained considerable acceptance in Germany. Before him, Wilhelm II had also expressed his dissatisfaction with East Africa, and Germany had always looked down on this "mixed-blooded" East African nation.

Now, Germany's attitude toward East Africa is more similar to its attitude toward the Soviet Union before the war in its previous life; East Africa is merely a tool that can be used.

In the previous life, from the time of Germany's defeat in World War I to before Operation Barbarossa, Germany and the Soviet Union were on the surface almost inseparable. Many of Germany's research projects were conducted in the Soviet Union, and even the training of German soldiers was carried out in the Soviet Union. After the outbreak of World War II, the two countries even partitioned Poland.

It is perhaps because of this special historical background that in his previous life, Soviet leader Joseph still mistakenly believed, until just before the war between the two countries, that Germany would not be able to turn against the Soviet Union after the signing of the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact.

Therefore, Ernst had to consider German aggression in East Africa as a low-probability event, especially in North Africa and the Middle East.

The Soviet Union had oil, and so did the Middle East, not to mention the Suez Canal, a vital artery for global maritime trade.

In its previous life, Germany had indeed extended its reach into North Africa and the Middle East, especially North Africa, where it even produced world-renowned generals like the "Desert Fox."

In conclusion, relations between East Africa and Germany remain in a fragile balance; if Germany touches a nerve in East Africa, the relationship could undergo a dramatic change.

In comparison, the Austro-Hungarian Empire was more to East Africa's liking. Unfortunately, the Austro-Hungarian Empire is now in dire straits, and East Africa's most important ally in Europe is very likely to be completely overthrown in the near future.

Previously, when the Austro-Hungarian Empire was stable, it could actually play a role in smoothing relations between East Africa and Germany. Now, without this mediator, relations between East Africa and Germany will only deteriorate further.

Of course, Ernst is not concerned about this deterioration at the moment; he has already mentally sentenced Germany to "death."

Therefore, East Africa's current two main research focuses in war preparation are Japan and Germany, and the East African National Defence Force should be able to suppress both countries in the future.

Ernst said, "The development of weapons and equipment for the defense forces, as well as the development of military technology, must keep a close eye on Europe and the South China Sea."

"In Europe, if World War II breaks out, East Africa will be the decisive force that comes last. We must minimize our casualties and losses as much as possible." "Europe's terrain is mainly plains, so large-scale mechanized warfare is a key research direction for the Imperial Army."

"In the South Pacific, and expanding to the entire Pacific, island and jungle warfare are our main research directions."

"The former places more emphasis on the size of the army, the coordination of large troop formations, and the mobility of armored forces, while the latter focuses more on the adaptability and creativity of weapons."

Wars in Europe are more suited to conventional warfare, while the Southeast Asian region is more suited to specialized operations. Given the terrain and climate of Southeast Asia, conventional armies lack a suitable environment to be effective.

Ernst continued, "However, for the Empire, the most fundamental issue is the development of the navy. Without a strong navy, it is difficult for the Empire to project its military power."

"East Africa is, after all, a maritime empire, separated from Europe by the Atlantic Ocean and its associated Mediterranean Sea. Therefore, the preparation of naval power is a key focus of the empire's military expansion."

"However, the current naval expansion in East Africa is not suitable to be carried out openly, but should be done quietly to avoid causing tension in the international community and disrupting the geopolitical balance, which would make us a target of criticism."

Friedrich frowned and asked, "It won't be easy for us to expand our navy quietly. After all, there are too many countries eyeing East Africa, and due to our national circumstances, it's not easy for us in East Africa to hide it."

Here, Friedrich was referring to the conditions of the East African coastline and ports. To secretly build warships without being detected by the enemy, secrecy was essential.

The Japanese Navy's secret expansion had geographical advantages. First, Japan's coastline is winding, with numerous excellent ports and fjords. Second, Japan has many mountains, which made the Japanese Navy's shipyards highly concealed.

Japan's advantage lies in East Africa's disadvantages. East Africa has a relative lack of ports, and the coastal ports lack shelter, making some East African shipyards easily detectable from the sea.

Ernst said, "It's not good for us to openly build large warships, but the London Treaty restricts capital ships, and a navy is not just made up of capital combat ships."

“Especially auxiliary warships, I think this could be a major area where we get involved, such as oil tankers, hospital ships, refrigerated ships, repair ships, supply ships, etc.”

"The construction of these ships will not be restricted; we can build them on a large scale."

In its previous life, the total tonnage of the U.S. Navy's auxiliary ships reached several million tons, supporting the U.S. Navy's logistical support work during World War II.

Therefore, East Africa has a lot of room for maneuver in the construction of such auxiliary ships, which can provide security for future wars without arousing the suspicion of other countries.

Ernst said, "We can use the global ocean-going operational capability of a navy with a tonnage of three million tons as a reference to formulate the development plan of the Imperial shipbuilding industry during the Eighth Five-Year Plan period. In this way, even if the Imperial Navy expands to three times its size in a short period of time, it will not be caught off guard."

Three million tons is actually a very conservative figure, because in the previous life, until the end of World War II, the total tonnage of the US Navy even exceeded ten million tons, which is more than ten times the current size of the US Navy.

A navy with a capacity of three million tons is something the British Navy could achieve at its peak during World War I. However, comparing the industrial size of Britain and East Africa, East Africa, if mobilized to its maximum extent, could easily reach more than three times that of Britain.

Even in the past, the United States was far inferior to East Africa in terms of industrial capacity. After all, East Africa had a population of 200 million. When 200 million people are mobilized, the explosion of industrial capacity will only be more exaggerated.

Ernst continued, "Secondly, there is the integration of resources in the Imperial shipbuilding industry. This should be coordinated during the Eighth Five-Year Plan period. In recent years, the Imperial shipbuilding industry has been in a slump, and now it should be reorganized."

East Africa's shipbuilding industry expanded rapidly during World War I, but after the war, with the recovery of the European shipbuilding industry, the good days for East Africa's shipbuilding industry came to an end. Britain alone could put enormous pressure on East Africa in the shipbuilding industry.

In addition, the reduction in military orders was also a reason why the East African shipbuilding industry entered a long period of depression after World War I. Before World War I, the size of the East African Navy was continuously expanding, and it did not stop after the outbreak of World War I.

After all, East Africa needed to ensure its navy remained in the second tier of the world, and during World War I, navies around the world were building warships at an alarming rate. If East Africa wanted to maintain its second-tier status, it had to follow suit.

As for the first tier, there was only Britain at the time, but the second tier, including Germany, the United States, and East Africa, was also a force to be reckoned with.

The reason for maintaining the second-tier level is that the second-tier forces can become the decisive force in the later stages of the war.

Otherwise, without sufficient naval strength to back it up, East Africa's efforts to coordinate a ceasefire with Europe at the end of the war would have been completely ineffective.

Only when the mediating country has a strong military can other countries obediently sit at the negotiating table.

Therefore, although East Africa did not participate in World War I, its naval size continued to increase in order to maintain its global influence.

Following the Treaty of London, the world's navies entered an era of extended leave, and the East African Navy was effectively shut down. Shipyards that lost military orders faced numerous operational difficulties, while also struggling to adapt to the recovery of the European shipbuilding industry.

Meanwhile, in the 1920s, in order to cope with the post-war economic crisis, East African governments were busy with economic transformation and industrial upgrading, which further impacted the East African shipbuilding industry.

Many shipyards have been eliminated or merged as part of the country's major economic strategy of industrial upgrading. In the long run, this is naturally a good thing, but in the short term, it has indeed dealt a heavy blow to the East African shipbuilding industry, causing a significant reduction in production capacity.

This situation has persisted until now. After all, once the pain of transformation had passed, the Great Depression of 1929 struck. The East African shipbuilding industry, which should have been booming, had to temporarily lie dormant due to the sluggish global demand.

But now, with Ernst's plan to revitalize the East African shipbuilding industry, it is foreseeable that the good days for East African shipbuilding will return during the Eighth Five-Year Plan period!
This adjustment is clearly fundamentally different from that of the 1920s. The industrial upgrading in the 1920s was essentially about the government restricting the unchecked growth of the shipbuilding industry. This time, however, East Africa intends to support and encourage the overall development of the shipbuilding industry.

For example, the auxiliary shipbuilding program that Ernst mentioned earlier is a huge pie, equivalent to an alternative military order. If it can be implemented, it can support a large number of shipyards.

(End of this chapter)