African Entrepreneurship Records 2

Chapter 1587 Spain and the Ottomans

As mentioned earlier, one of the key reasons why Italy appears to be doing better economically than Japan is that Italy is a European country.

Europe, northern North America, and southern Africa have higher standards of living than other parts of the world. Europe is almost entirely developed, and even in the Balkans and Iberian Peninsulas, where the economic foundation is weaker, the quality of life for the people is higher than in most colonies and underdeveloped countries and regions.

In northern North America, the economies of the United States and Canada are in no way inferior to those of Europe. Recently, Mexico and Cuba have also fared relatively better due to Roosevelt's active promotion of good neighborliness policies after taking office.

In southern Africa, East Africa is basically the dominant power, which raises the bar for the entire region.

As a rising power in Europe, Italy's economic floor is stronger than that of most regions and countries outside the region, which is not surprising at all.

However, when it comes to Europe specifically, Italy is far behind. The Austro-Hungarian Empire was a traditional European power, and its resources, technological accumulation, talent pool, and industrial completeness were only superior to Italy's.

Therefore, the recapture of Eastern Lombardy and Venice was of great significance to Italy, as it could directly help Italy avoid some detours in its industrial development.

Ernst analyzed, "With the unification of Germany and Austria and the unification of Italy, the world situation is getting closer and closer to the edge of a dangerous abyss."

"The nascent global political and military bloc centered on Germany is rapidly taking shape around the world and could directly shake the stability of world peace and order."

"The political and military bloc of this world has been greatly strengthened on the basis of the original Allied powers in World War I."

Crown Prince Friedrich understood Ernst's meaning and said in response, "During World War I, the main forces of the Central Powers were Germany and Austria-Hungary, but Austria-Hungary was unable to unleash its potential due to internal politics and the decentralization of power."

"Germany can do that. After annexing Austria-Hungary, Germany will only be stronger than the Germany and Austria-Hungary alliance during World War I."

"In addition, Germany is now getting closer to Italy and Japan, and it is possible that these three powers will form a military alliance in the future."

"This is not all the power that Germany can utilize. There are also Spain and the Ottoman Empire, two declining great powers, which may also completely align themselves with this new political and military bloc."

Spain is facing serious problems, but it is undeniable that it is a force to be reckoned with in Europe. Several major European powers, including Britain, France, Germany, Italy, and the Soviet Union, are trying to bring Spain into their fold.

Germany, Italy, and the Soviet Union, in particular, paid special attention to Spain.

Now, Germany and Italy appear to be on the same side regarding the Spanish issue, both supporting the Nationalists led by Franco, while the Soviet Union supports the Republicans.

The Nationalists and Republicans cannot be simply viewed as a struggle between extreme nationalist forces and Labour Party forces; both factions are a mixed bag.

For example, the Falange party within the Nationalist faction is a typical extreme nationalist party and a major investment target for Germany and Italy. Then there are the rebels, which can represent a part of the Spanish military force, with the main force being the Spanish Afrika Korps, which is the Moroccan colonial force mentioned earlier.

Then there were royalists within the Nationalist faction, which was further divided into the Carlos faction and supporters of Alfonso XIII.

Finally, there were also Catholic forces, as well as landowners, bankers, and industrial capitalists, etc.

The situation was similar for the republicans, who included the bourgeois Republican Party and the Republican Union, whose supporters were mainly Spanish liberals and republicans.

Then there are various Labour Party forces, including the Workers' Party, the Soviet-style Labour Party, and the Workers' Union. These forces also have internal divisions, such as moderates and radicals.

Finally, there are anarchists and local separatist forces.

With so many powerful forces at the top, anyone in Spain would feel overwhelmed.

Crown Prince Frederick said jokingly, "Spain can now be described as a museum of world politics and ideas, where you can find all kinds of political parties and organizations."

"The ideological divisions and numerous factions within Spain are enough to make anyone's scalp tingle. If these differences are not resolved, Spain will be a hopeless country."

"The continued decline of Spain over the years is inextricably linked to its extremely poor political environment."

Spain's internal strife has a long history, dating back hundreds of years. However, the situation has become more chaotic, with all sorts of strange and treacherous figures emerging.

Ernst said, "The final outcome of this internal struggle will most likely be a victory for the Nationalists. On the one hand, the Nationalists are more united than the Republicans. On the other hand, Germany and Italy are more likely to influence Spain, while the Soviet Union, although it wants to intervene in Spain, is too far away from Spain."

"And then there are Britain and France. Their attitudes are too negative. Even without the Soviet Union, the Nationalists would have had a better chance of winning in the end."

The reason why Britain and France have a negative attitude towards the internal political struggles in Spain can be seen from the current composition of the Republican faction.

Undoubtedly, the democratic republicans are ideologically more inclined towards Britain and France. However, the democratic system of the entire capitalist world is now facing a bottleneck, and Britain and France have also been affected. Due to the division among domestic political forces, they are hesitant to support the bourgeois democratic forces in Spain.

Of course, the rise of the Labour Party within the Republican camp is what Britain and France fear most. Supporting the Republicans now, only to have the Labour Party ultimately reap the benefits, is clearly unacceptable to Britain and France.

Therefore, "better to choose the lesser of two evils" is the best course of action, and it would be better to let the Nationalists, supported by Germany and Italy, ultimately win.

On the Nationalist side, although it is also a mixed bag, these forces share more common interests because they have commonalities, such as extreme conservatism and advocacy or acceptance of authoritarian rule.

At the same time, the Nationalists also had a political figure they could all accept, namely Franco. He himself came from the military and was a natural spokesperson for the interests of the military. He was also able to accept extreme nationalist ideas, while also being a supporter of the monarchy and a conservative thinker who supported Catholic traditions.

On the Republican side, the contradictions between the bourgeoisie and the Labour Party are irreconcilable, not to mention the two completely contradictory political forces that support maintaining unity and local separatism, making compatibility impossible.

Therefore, Ernst said, "No matter how the situation in Spain develops, the National Party will inevitably win in the end, and after the National Party wins, Spain will inevitably become the third country in Europe to be governed by an extreme nationalist party." "Franco will most likely become the new ruler of this country. However, Franco is a complicated person. It is hard to say whether he will firmly stand on the side of Germany. But if it is about dealing with the Soviet Union, he will definitely have a lot in common with Germany and Italy."

"And the Soviet Union was the only country capable of preventing Germany from conquering Europe. If Spain sided with Germany, it would undoubtedly be a huge blow to the Soviet Union."

Without considering interference from forces outside Europe, the Soviet Union was arguably the only country in Europe capable of confronting Germany. As for Britain and France, they simply could not do it on their own, even if they joined forces.

After all, during World War I, even the combined forces of Britain and France were no match for Germany, and it was only with the intervention of the United States that the situation was stabilized.

In the coming years, after absorbing the Austro-Hungarian Empire, Germany will only become stronger.

Of course, if Germany had started the war against the Soviet Union first, Ernst could have foreseen some of the outcomes. For example, once Germany and the Soviet Union were both severely weakened, Britain and France would have inevitably pushed the badly wounded Germany back to the ground.

Crown Prince Frederick nodded and said, "If Spain joins the German camp, I can't think of any way to stop Germany in Europe except for our intervention and that of the United States."

"Not to mention, there was also the Ottoman Empire, which was also a potential ally of Germany."

The Ottoman Empire was roughly equal in strength to Spain. Although its industry lagged behind Spain's, it was politically stable and highly centralized.

In 1934, both the Ottoman Empire and Spain had populations exceeding 20 million, with no significant difference in population size.

Economically, both Spain and the Ottoman Empire were heavily reliant on agriculture. However, Spain at least had a certain industrial base, while the Ottoman Empire made faster progress in industry, thanks to the current political stability of the Ottoman Empire and the implementation of economic development policies.

In the military sphere, the Ottoman Empire and Spain each had their own strengths and weaknesses. Although Spain had a stronger overall military strength, it was loosely organized, while the Ottoman Empire had a slightly weaker military strength but strong organization and was accelerating its modernization.

Ernst said, "Spain has more resources than the Ottoman Empire, but now the Ottoman Empire has hit rock bottom and rebounded, while Spain is still in decline. Only after the internal distribution of resources is completed will Spain have a chance to return to being a European power."

Currently, Spain can only be considered a major European power, not a great power like Italy. This conclusion is based on factors such as Spain's area, population, resources, and geography.

In Europe, Spain ranks fourth in area, after the Soviet Union, Germany, and France. In fact, Spain's area is similar to that of France, both around 500,000 square kilometers. After all, in this timeline, France still had not recovered Alsace and Lorraine after World War I.

Of course, the quality of land in France is obviously not comparable to that in Spain. The climate in many parts of Spain is similar to that of North Africa, which is extremely arid, so arable land is not as plentiful as one might imagine.

This also results in Spain's population being significantly disproportionate to its land area, even far lower than that of the United Kingdom, Italy, and Poland, all of which have areas of around 300,000 square kilometers.

However, there are only a handful of countries in Europe with a population exceeding 20 million. Spain, in terms of population, can barely be considered a large country, ranking seventh in Europe after the Soviet Union, Germany, the United Kingdom, France, Italy, and Poland.

In terms of resources, Spain ranks among the top in Europe, much stronger than Italy. For example, Spain has a large amount of major minerals such as coal, iron ore, and oil. Although its reserves are not large, it has them all.

At the same time, Spain's copper, tungsten and other minerals occupy an important position in Europe, and Spain's mineral resources should rank among the top five in Europe.

Finally, there's the geographical location. Spain is situated on the Apennine Peninsula, a position highly advantageous for economic development in the age of maritime power.

Therefore, considering its land area, population, resources, and geographical location, Spain is undoubtedly a major European power. However, despite these advantages, Spain's development lags behind some smaller European countries. Thus, based on its current level of development, Spain is no longer able to meet the requirements to be considered a great power.

Crown Prince Frederick said, "I am also more optimistic about the development of the Ottoman Empire. With Kemal's reform policies, the Ottoman Empire is very likely to completely surpass Spain in national strength in the next few years. If given more time, it is not impossible for the Ottoman Empire to become a great power again."

In this timeline, the Ottoman Empire's foundation for development far surpasses that of Turkey in its previous life. Firstly, it did not suffer defeat in World War I, which resulted in the Ottoman Empire bearing far less war reparations than Turkey in its previous life.

Therefore, Kemal had more abundant funds to develop the country's economy, and the effects of his five-year economic plan were greater than those of his predecessor.

Then, the Ottoman Empire continued to control regions such as Iraq, which maintained huge profits for the Ottoman Empire. Iraq was the breadbasket of the Ottoman Empire, and with it still in Ottoman hands, the Ottoman Empire's food problem was greatly alleviated.

Most importantly, the development of Iraq's coastal oil resources has brought considerable profits to the Ottoman Empire.

Germany and other Central and Eastern European countries continued to increase their oil imports from the Ottoman Empire, and Germany, for energy security reasons, even took the initiative to help the Ottoman Empire build oil extraction and refining facilities.

In conclusion, the Ottoman Empire does indeed show signs of regaining its status as a great power, although whether it can achieve this remains uncertain.

If Kemal's policies could be maintained for a long time, the Ottoman Empire might have regained its status as a regional power within a decade or so. However, if Kemal did not live that long, the Ottoman Empire's modernization process could have been interrupted.

It should be noted that the Ottoman Empire was previously a very stubborn and conservative theocratic state. Those religious, monarchist, and regional separatist forces that Kemal suppressed would certainly have emerged after his death.

They may not be able to overturn the overall development path left by Kemal, but they can certainly hinder the development of the Ottoman Empire.

East Africa, on the other hand, hoped that the Ottoman Empire would continue to be secular, since it did not want a country that could integrate Arab influence to emerge.

From North Africa to the Middle East and Central Asia, and then to South Asia and Southeast Asia, the Arab population and influence are too great, especially Ernst, who had witnessed the Arab population's reproductive capacity in his previous life, which had reached almost two billion and was still rising and expanding rapidly.

Therefore, Ernst did not want Arab religion to develop as it had in his previous life, as this would threaten East Africa's future hegemony in the Indian Ocean and the future of East African countries.

In order to curb the expansion of Arab influence, East Africa even tacitly approved of the expansion of progressive forces in the Middle East and the influence of the Soviet Union.

(End of this chapter)