Agricultural giant since 1983

Chapter 472 Grain and Oil Association
Originally thought that the final victory would be easy, but they were so anxious. The four major grain merchants could no longer be as calm as before. They hurriedly held an emergency meeting to discuss countermeasures, "The price has been beaten down again. , It’s been so long, and the price still hasn’t met our expectations, and judging from the current situation, there’s no hope for a while in the future! What should we do now?”

The domestic joint team of COFCO, China Grain Storage and Huinong has no idea. They are under tremendous pressure, and the four major grain merchants are actually the same. Li Lei and the others have spent their hard-earned inventory and funds; The funds sent to the country are almost exhausted. Their financial strength is indeed strong, but the money is also useful. Can the wheat and corn in the United States still be collected?Do you want South American coffee and cocoa?So the funds left for the soybean war are not as rich as many people think,

And now it’s the soybean harvest season in the United States. According to the contract, they have to purchase soybeans from American farmers as soon as possible. Now farmers in many places are already dissatisfied. These people still have a certain influence. The dealer can't keep procrastinating, which will take up part of the funds.

But they have been thinking about it for several years, and they want to hold the domestic soybean industry, so they will not give up until the last moment. Therefore, no one proposed peace talks at this meeting, but they intend to continue this battle. And formulate new countermeasures.

“Before we wanted to speculate on the futures price first, and then use the futures price to push up the spot price! Now it seems that there is a loophole in this strategy, we keep taking buy orders, they keep throwing sell orders, and there is actually not much spot Delivery! From the perspective of futures trading, this model is reasonable, but our purpose is not to make money through futures! We want to raise soybean prices!"

"We are now playing away games, and we are often at a relatively disadvantaged position. After all, the referee is not on our side! I have studied China's financial market, and their operations are very irregular. Dare to sell a large number of sell orders, such as the '327 national debt incident'!" A financial expert told them the detailed process of the "327 national debt incident", which opened their eyes.

This is not to say that European and American financial markets cannot be short-sold naked, or Xiao Fang and Porsche would not be able to play short-squeeze routines, but their methods are more refined, not as rough as in the "327 National Debt Incident".

As soon as this case is mentioned, others will understand, "You mean that they don't have so many soybeans in their hands, and they are just intimidating us by issuing empty orders? If we choose a contract with a shorter delivery time, they will not dare to sell the order." ? Then the price of soybeans can be raised by us?”

This process is not complicated. Previously, Sinograin, COFCO and Huinong sold sales orders with a relatively long delivery time, such as delivery after three months. Then they can use this time to operate, or buy the sales orders again. When you come back, just continue to extend the delivery time like credit card revolving cash, or wait for the price to fall and buy enough soybeans from Brazil and other places for delivery, so that even if you don’t have any goods in hand now, you can handle it, and you don’t have to worry about defaulting on the contract. .

Now the four major grain merchants choose to pay the bill with a shorter delivery time, requiring that the delivery must be made within one month or even [-] days. If China Grain has no goods in hand, they will definitely not dare to accept them. If they do not accept them, everyone will know what they have in hand. If there is no inventory, the price of soybeans will immediately rise to the sky; if it is received, the delivery time will arrive soon, and there is no way to get enough soybeans in such a short time. If they cannot pay on time, it will be a breach of contract, which will not only expose their false strength , but also bear legal responsibility, this trouble can be big.

"But what if they have enough soybeans to deliver? What do we need so many physical soybeans?" There is money to continue to sweep the goods, so the only problem is this. The four major grain merchants want to sell soybeans to China also controls China's soybean industry chain. Does it mean that it wants to buy soybeans from China and sell them to other countries? Is there any market in the world that is bigger than China?There are no buyers for so many soybeans.

"They absolutely don't! We have calculated China's soybean output, consumption and imports in detail in recent years, and they simply don't have enough storage! Even if we ignore the salt-alkali-resistant soybeans, we have arranged people to look around. The planting area and yield of soybeans are not as much as they advertise!" Some people made a decisive judgment that domestic oil mills can arrange people to go to the United States to check the growth of soybeans, and they can also arrange people to come to China to check the salt-alkali-resistant soybeans planting conditions.

Although the time is relatively short, and it is too late to visit all the saline-alkali lands where soybeans are grown, we can draw a general conclusion from the situation in several major soybean-producing areas. Just as they announced the reduction of soybean production in the United States, the Chinese are also tolerant to salt-alkali Soy lied.

And regardless of whether this matter is true or not, they don’t have many means available now, so they buy soybeans for short-term delivery in the futures market and start to implement the plan to buy soybeans offline at a higher price at the same time; at the same time, they continue to release fake news, such as the United States, A number of soybean storage warehouses in Brazil and other places accidentally caught fire, etc., to trigger market shortage expectations, thereby driving up soybean prices.

"The situation is not good! There is still time to turn around in three months. In fifteen days or one month, we have to really take out soybeans. Can we accept these orders?" This method did work, and they started to Get nervous, even if you buy soybeans in Brazil within a month, you won't be able to ship them back, and you won't be able to deliver them as scheduled, but if you don't pick them up, the price will definitely skyrocket.

"Go on, they want soybeans, so give them soybeans! These guys want to sell soybeans, and buying so many soybeans now will increase storage costs for nothing!" Li Lei knew that at this time, he must not give up. All previous efforts were wasted.

"It's not necessarily useless. Isn't ADM cooperating with Yihai Kerry? If they hand over this batch of soybeans to Arowana and let them squeeze the oil, wouldn't they even save the shipping costs?" Mr. Gao of COFCO reminded Dao said, in the current soybean oil market, Luhua, Arowana, and Fulinmen are divided into three parts. COFCO is very concerned about this competitor, and has long known that they have colluded with ADM.

"Similarly, no matter whether it is Yihai Kerry or those small oil mills, the annual consumption of soybeans is certain. If you buy more here, you will buy less elsewhere. Moreover, these soybeans are originally intended to be sold to Theirs is just handed over to them earlier!" Li Lei didn't care about such a small matter.

He is not someone who just takes beatings and doesn’t fight back, so he proposed a new plan, “However, thousands of oil mills across the country need to import a large amount of soybeans every year. So we have to learn from China Iron and Steel Association, form a national grain and oil association, twist together to negotiate with foreign buyers, if the four major grain merchants do not agree to our conditions, then we will I won’t buy soybeans from them anymore, although China’s soybean shortage is not small, but the combination of Brazil and Argentina is enough to meet the demand!”

Last year, China imported more iron ore than Japan for the first time, becoming the world's largest importer of iron ore. At the end of the year, China participated in the annual international iron ore price negotiation for the first time.

In the field of soybean imports, there is every chance to do better than the iron ore field, because domestic oil extraction companies are not as scattered as the steel industry. There are too many giants in the steel industry. It is a party of princes; in terms of the oil extraction industry, Luhua's family is now the dominant one, followed by Fulinmen and Arowana, and most of the rest are small factories that are not successful. Luhua and Fulinmen can control the words together Right, those small factories can only obey.

"And we can also provide support to these countries, from breeding, agricultural machinery, chemical fertilizers, pesticides to harvesting and squeezing the entire industrial chain support, if the four major grain merchants do not want their control of the global market and the South American soybean industry to be weakened, then They must sign a long-term agreement with us and provide us with enough soybeans at the agreed price!" Just now, they were unified internally, but now they are threatening the four major grain merchants from the outside.

Don’t think that you are the only one who has the whole soybean industrial chain technology in the world. We also have it, maybe a little worse than you, but it is enough. As long as we relax the restrictions on farmers a little, they will definitely give up cooperation with you. Instead, sign a contract with us.

"It's easy to handle. The two of us will take the lead, and then bring in some medium-sized state-owned grain and oil companies and private grain and oil companies. We can pass the approval with a simple framework." After thinking about it, Mr. Gao thinks this method is very good, and it is not policy-wise. The problem is that it is very troublesome for other companies to establish a national organization, but this is not the same thing for COFCO and Huinong, just report to the leader.

"Then let's release the soybeans, and then seize the time to establish an association. This news can be released in advance, so that those small and medium-sized enterprises can also have something to do, so that they don't have to stare at the soybean market every day and be surprised at every turn!" Another advantage of oil extraction companies is that they can stabilize people's hearts.

So Sinograin, Huinong and other institutions did not hesitate to accept the short-term delivery orders from the four major grain merchants, and at the same time showed them the soybeans in full warehouses, and shipped these soybeans to Dalian for delivery. Most of these soybeans were Li Lei stockpiled them in advance. Although the current price of soybeans has been lowered a lot by them, it is still higher than when he bought it. Even with the transportation and storage costs added, Li Lei can still make a lot of money.

After getting the soybeans as scheduled, the representatives of the four major grain merchants looked at these soybeans as uncomfortable as eating flies. We are the world's largest soybean supplier. Why do we need so many soybeans?They can only send these soybeans to the oil mill in Yihai Kerry, as the Chinese guessed, and then produce them into Arowana.

But Yihai Kerry immediately told them the bad news. COFCO and Huinong are taking the lead in preparing to form the National Association of Grain and Oil Enterprises. businessmen to negotiate.

In the face of thousands of scattered small buyers and a unified big buyer, which one is easier to talk about and easier to make money? The four major grain merchants couldn't be more clear. method, because this is an internal matter of China's oil extraction industry, how can they interfere?

Buy some oil mills and let them make trouble?Talk one by one and differentiate from it?It may work in the iron and steel industry, but not in the soybean oil field, because Luhua and COFCO together control most of the country's crushing capacity, so what's the use of those small oil crushing factories?Even the Guo family, which has cooperation with ADM, will stand by COFCO at this time, because it is good for them to lower the price of soybeans.

Before they could figure out how to deal with it, the sign of the Grain and Oil Enterprises Association had already been put up, and a senior leader was invited to be the chairman. Li Lei and Mr. Gao were both vice-chairmen. The association announced two things just after its establishment. Each of these made the four major grain merchants uncomfortable. The first was the unified negotiation. The companies that joined the association handed over the right to negotiate overseas soybean purchases to the association, and the association then came forward to negotiate with foreign suppliers; For more in-depth cooperation in the field, Lula also responded in a timely manner, expressing a warm welcome.

The first measure limits the room for the four major grain merchants to increase prices. The price of 1000 million tons of soybeans and [-] tons of soybeans at one time will definitely be different; the second measure reduces their share. The deeper the cooperation between China and Brazil , the smaller the share left to the four major grain merchants, and once Brazil succeeds, Argentina, Bolivia and other countries will follow suit, and their control over the South American soybean industry will be further weakened.

"No, we can't let them succeed, let's negotiate! If they promise to give up these two plans, we can also make a little concession on the price. After all, according to our judgment, China will be the largest soybean market in the world in the future. We We can't give up on this market!" Finally, for the first time, among the executives of the four major grain merchants, someone gave up.

"Entering a market or controlling a market, which will bring more profits? I still firmly believe that they don't have enough soybean reserves, and we have the ability to prevent more Brazilian soybeans from entering China! So the war will continue!" But most people still don't admit defeat!
(End of this chapter)