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Chapter 1166 Speculator 2
“The Portuguese were pioneers in navigation and should have gained more profits on the sea. Unfortunately, your development was restricted by a not-so-smart but strong neighbor. Most of the profits were taken away by it, and you didn’t get any support, which allowed the Dutch and the British to catch up.

Have you ever thought about how to get out of this predicament? If you continue to develop like this, in a few years, there will be no Portuguese ships in the Asian waters. You will be replaced by the Dutch, British, French, and even Danes and Swedes.

Don't think I'm exaggerating, let's take the Fau Port as an example. The Ming army will not occupy this place forever, and sooner or later they will return it to the more friendly locals after driving away the Ottomans.

But Spain and the Ming Empire were enemies, and Felipe IV became the King of Portugal. If it were not for my personal relationship with Gabriel, and if the Portuguese merchants in Macau had not helped the Ming Empire, the Portuguese warehouses in Goa and Malacca would have disappeared long ago.

Even if I didn't do it, the Dutch wouldn't be polite. In fact, if I hadn't been against it, the Governor of Batavia would have taken action against Malacca ten years ago. In order to dominate the trade route to Europe, the Dutch are willing to go to war with Spain again. "

The speaker may not mean anything, but the listener may take it seriously. Looking at the 17th century Zidane in front of him, Hong Tao suddenly had an idea in his mind. If it can be realized, it will greatly increase the trade volume between Europe and Asia, and at the same time challenge the Dutch's exclusive agency status in Asian waters.

It’s true that the Dutch are now a bit of a hindrance. They are becoming increasingly dissatisfied with the business in the Spice Islands and are beginning to think about infiltrating into other areas.

In order to cope with the trade share agreement signed with the Ming Empire, they secretly colluded with some less-than-rule-abiding Ming merchants, purchased raw silk and cotton textiles under false names, then hung the flag of Dutch merchant ships to pass through the Cape of Good Hope, and shipped the goods back to Europe for sale to make huge profits.

This is equivalent to seizing the market share of Ming Dynasty merchants, causing the prices of several high-profit goods in Enniao Port to drop year by year.

The same amount of raw silk and cotton textiles, if shipped to Enniao Port five years ago and sold for 1000 imperial silver coins, can now only be sold for 900 coins.

Even without taking into account the rising production costs and raw material costs, the loss was 100 silver coins. These 100 silver coins all went into the pockets of Dutch smuggling merchant ships and illegal Ming merchant ship owners, indirectly damaging the tax revenue of the Ming court.

In fact, the harm is more than that. If things go on like this, seeing that smuggling is profitable, more and more Ming merchants will participate in it. When the number reaches a certain value, quantitative changes will promote qualitative changes, seriously affecting the Ming court's regulation of the domestic economy and giving rise to more uncontrollable factors.

Should the Dutch be blamed? Of course, they were partially to blame, but not mainly. There was only one person who started it all, Hong Tao himself. It was he who supported the Dutch to become bigger and stronger in order to combat the control of Spanish and Portuguese merchants over Asian maritime trade.

The Dutch did live up to expectations. Relying on their strong navigation capabilities and business acumen, they completely squeezed Spanish merchant ships out of Asian waters, causing Portuguese merchant ships to lose their dominant position.

But while the goal was achieved, the side effects also emerged. The Dutch now became like the Portuguese in the past, and began to do whatever they wanted by relying on their exclusive rights to operate most of the maritime trade in Asia.

Even if the Ming court noticed this sign, it could do nothing in the short term. It would be impossible to get rid of the Dutch and do it on its own. As long as Ming merchant ships appeared in European waters, they would inevitably attract groups of privateers. Unless warships were sent to escort them, no privateer would be able to reach the port.

Not to mention the cost of warships escorting the entire journey, even if it can be afforded, what will be the reaction of European countries when Ming warships appear in the North Atlantic or even the Mediterranean?

Needless to say, it must be the same rejection as when the Qing court saw European sailing ships docked at coastal ports. The difference is that the naval forces of European countries are relatively strong, at least they are not afraid of anyone at their doorstep, and then there are naval battles one after another. No matter how advanced the warship technology of the Ming Navy is and how strong its combat effectiveness is, it cannot withstand the war of attrition. Especially under the premise of no supply port, unless you can avoid being hit by a shell, not being injured, and not losing a single person, you will fail sooner or later.

It is a dilemma: you can't break off relations with the Dutch, but you can't just watch them poach your employees.

It is often said in later generations that market problems should be left to the market to solve. Free trade is also often mentioned in various economics, and military intervention in market behavior is not advocated.

Hong Tao thinks it makes sense. Doing business is like playing mahjong. The rules must be agreed upon in advance. You can't just say you won't win and then I say I want to play mahjong. That's not business, that's hooliganism.

But supporting the Portuguese to grow bigger and stronger and compete with the Dutch for the Asian maritime trade market should not be considered government intervention. Competition, no economics has ever said that monopoly is a good thing, where there is a market there is competition, it is too normal.

But then again, in ten or twenty years, if the Portuguese become really big and powerful and do the same as the Dutch, what should we do?

There is no need to assume that Hong Tao is certain that this will happen. This is human nature, and as long as the market behavior is human-centered, this situation cannot be avoided.

The solution is the old routine, support the Dutch again. Or add a few more, such as the British, French, etc. With more competitors, it is more difficult to monopolize.

In fact, there are side effects to this. It will become more difficult to regulate policies. It will no longer be possible to quickly strengthen whoever you want to support. By then, it is possible that the market will enter a state of free competition and will no longer be subject to the will of a certain court.

Unfortunately, Hong Tao's ability is limited to this point, and he doesn't know what to do after reaching this point. Fortunately, there are at least a few decades to use. The Royal Academy has gathered so many masters from all over the world and various disciplines, just to do this job.

Once they come up with new results, I will have a way to deal with them; if they make no progress, I can only wait where I am, there is nothing I can do.

"...He is not the king of Portugal. We have never acknowledged him!" This question made the talkative Lisboa speechless instantly. His bald head turned red before he squeezed out a sentence in hatred.

To be honest, as a Portuguese merchant, the King of Spain is the biggest enemy. If Spain had not intervened, Portugal would not have declined so quickly.

But what can a Portuguese merchant do? Who will succeed the king is decided by the church and the nobles. They have never been asked for their opinions, and they will not change them.

(End of this chapter)