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Chapter 1365 Analysis
"Enbird Port, the Ottoman and Persian territories, and the Kazakh Khanate—these are the three known directions of attack. Although the exact number and scale of the enemy are still unclear, their general priorities should be discernible. Tell me, which is the primary and which is the secondary, and why?"

Hong Tao didn't bother to dwell on the superficial harmony and underlying ulterior motives between the Persian and Ottoman Empires. He should now be able to discern the European coalition's offensive tactics. While determining these tactics early might not allow for timely troop reinforcements, it would allow for adjustments to logistics or the rapid creation of a second layer of defense.

"Deputy Chief of the General Staff, please..." Seeing Tan Buming's ambiguous smile, Wang Datou quickly gave up the opportunity to shine that wasn't rightfully his.

"The General Staff believes that Enniu Port is the real location, while the Persian Gulf and the Western Theater are merely feints. Once Pearl Harbor sends further battle reports confirming the successful landing of the Eastern Expeditionary Fleet, the next focus should shift to South Africa. As long as Enniu Port can be held as much as possible, even if Enniu City is lost, it will still be a victory!"

After exchanging a few words with his subordinates, including Ma Huateng, Tan Mingbu, representing the General Staff, first explained his views on the battle situation and the measures and changes that should be taken in the future.

"...I believe it is too early to draw conclusions now; we should wait and see."

Seeing that the emperor had turned his gaze to him, Wang Datou had no choice but to express his opinion. As an intelligence officer, the more he knew, the more timid he became; he neither opposed nor approved the General Staff's suggestion.

"I have a question. In your estimates, excluding the Ottoman and Persian armies, how many troops should the European coalition be able to commit?"

The General Staff believed that the enemy had already revealed their trump card, while the Advisory Office felt that they could wait and see. Which of these two completely different approaches was more in line with the current situation? Hong Tao did not rush to a conclusion, but instead began to do the detailed analysis.

"According to pre-war estimates, the main force of the European coalition was between 15 and 20, and the number of mercenaries was about the same. However, after more than half a year of observation, combined with the analysis of the financial and borrowing situation of various European countries, it seems that none of them have gone to great lengths to prepare for war."

The number of mercenaries is likely to be lower than estimated, probably between 10 and 15. The main force will remain at its original size, with the army primarily composed of Spanish, Holy Roman Empire, Polish, and Russian troops, and the navy mainly composed of Dutch, English, and Spanish forces.

The General Staff must be fully aware of these specific figures; they should be able to provide them without any hesitation.

"...The advisory office seconded it." Wang Datou wasn't so quick; he needed to think it over before making a decision.

"Alright, assuming your estimates aren't too far off, we can do some simple calculations. We know that one army is advancing eastward from the northern Caspian Sea, and another army has reached the northern part of Enbird City."

If they are the main force of the European coalition, and the Cape of Good Hope and the Western Theater are also the enemy's main attack directions, then the total number of these two armies should not be less than 10, right?

Seeing that the two strategists had reached a consensus on the specific numbers, Hong Tao got up again, walked to the map, picked up a pointer and pencil, and started sketching and asking questions, much like he was teaching a Cuju (ancient Chinese football) team.

Since his ascension to the throne, besides his sweeping reforms and abandonment of ancestral traditions, his most celebrated characteristic, admired by both the court and the public, was his frugality. When discussing Emperor Jingyang, officials and commoners alike could describe him as cunning, cruel, rude, and immoral, but no one dared to accuse him of extravagance. Not that they dared not, but simply that no one did. However, there was one thing he used excessively: military maps, and not just ordinary ones, but those the size of an entire wall. These maps required special production and were very expensive; fortunately, they were all included in the General Staff's budget, otherwise, such casual sketching would have doubled the palace's expenses.

"Well... from the north of the Caspian Sea eastward all the way to Turkestan, the entire route is grassland and desert, sparsely populated. Such a long march, if the number of troops is too large, may not be able to be resupplyed, and the logistical pressure will be too great."

The students believed that if the infantry exceeded 1, supply lines would become unsustainable. They argued that this would only be possible if more herdsmen cavalry were selected, each with at least three horses, emulating the Mongol army's westward expansion by marching with flocks of sheep, cattle, horses, and their own tribes.

Among the European coalition forces, only the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth and Russia possessed large-scale herdsman cavalry, but their numbers were far from 3. If Cossack mercenaries were included, they could probably muster around 5 to 6.

Calculating troop size and corresponding logistical support is the most basic task of the General Staff. Tan Mingbu hesitated for only a few seconds before predicting the origin, number, and approximate military branch of this enemy force in the north. This wasn't based on guesswork, but on calculations made according to the local natural environment and human transportation capabilities.

The Ming Empire's army had the most advanced logistics and transportation capabilities of its time. If it could easily cross Central Asia to launch an expedition to Eastern Europe, the European coalition would have been out of the question.

Send 20 guards with cannons to sweep across the land, conquering cities and fortresses along the way, taking down Russia and the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth in one fell swoop. Even if the infantry is slow, five years wouldn't be enough, but ten years would be enough to reach the Atlantic coast.

When Russia was discovered to be secretly expanding eastward, the General Staff did consider taking an offensive approach to achieve a permanent solution. Unfortunately, after careful consideration, they realized that even if they exerted all their strength, emptied their coffers, and conscripted a large number of herdsmen and cavalry despite the opposition from various Mongol ethnic groups, they still could not be certain of victory.

Besides human factors, there is another crucial parameter that long-distance expeditions cannot control: the weather. Even the most formidable army is helpless in the face of torrential rain, storms, heavy snow, mudslides, or floods.

Some say that the Mongol army successfully conquered the west many times in the past. Now, with advanced weaponry, why are they facing difficulties everywhere? This is not a military issue, but a matter of lifestyle.

The Mongol army's westward expedition, though described as a military campaign, was in reality a migration of people. It was similar to the nomadic herds' migrations at least twice a year, moving their livestock from one place to another.

Most soldiers in the western expeditionary army had dual identities. When they needed to fight, they would put on armor, pick up weapons, and ride horses to become warriors. After the battle, they would take off their armor and put down their weapons and become herdsmen in the blink of an eye. They could manage both military and civilian affairs without any conflict.

The remaining women, the elderly, and children continue their daily routines of herding livestock and giving birth. The only difference is that the annual migrations, which used to be two or three times a year, have been increased to once every few days; essentially, there's no difference.

At this rate, they could easily cross not only Europe, but also North America if there were a land route from Western Europe. If time weren't a constraint, they could even return via the Bering Strait. Not only would they avoid losses, but they could return with 5 men instead of 8 – that's why they were called a nomadic people.

(End of this chapter)