Reborn in 2011, 985 missing from two copies
Chapter 637: Extended-range vehicles, targeting Tesla
Chapter 637: Extended-range vehicles, targeting Tesla
For example, for the three-electric system, it is very easy to purchase directly from other companies, and there is little R&D cost.
But Xingyi Automobile has to conduct full-stack self-development, which is very costly.
Let alone 10 billion, even 20 billion will just be a drop in the bucket!
In addition to the 200 billion interest-free loan from Shanghai, Xingyi Technology Group will invest another 200 billion!
We have fully self-developed the entire stack, developed all core technologies from scratch, and have become the top company in the industry. It would be great if we can achieve this with 400 billion yuan.
If it’s not enough, you can only keep burning.
There is no way. Full-stack self-research and full-stack procurement are two completely different concepts.
In fact, from 2012 to 2015, if new energy vehicles wanted to grow, it would be difficult without full-stack self-development.
After all, the two leading companies, Tesla and BYD, are still groping in the dark, and the entire industry is starting from scratch.
If Wang Yi doesn’t do full-stack research and development himself, it would be difficult for him to purchase third-party components and use them directly.
In the entire new energy vehicle industry, only Tesla can come up with something impressive. It has already launched the Model S, but assisted driving is not yet available.
Tesla's first generation of assisted driving Autopilot 1.0 will not be launched until the fourth quarter of this year and will be installed on the Model S.
However, Tesla's first-generation assisted driving hardware was purchased from third-party suppliers and then integrated.
Therefore, the level of the first generation of assisted driving is very average, and it can even be said to be useless.
Two years later, when Autopilot 2.0 was launched, using fully self-developed hardware, it became something interesting and laid the foundation for FSD (full autonomous driving).
Currently, even Tesla has to purchase third-party hardware for integration. It can only be said that everyone is only half-baked and far from being proficient.
Even those professional new energy suppliers are very poor.
It was precisely because of the lack of support from its suppliers that Tesla was forced to embark on the path of fully self-developed hardware to create Autopilot 2.0.
Similarly, Xingyi Automobile also faces such a problem.
The suppliers are not strong enough and the industry is just starting out. If we want to go far, we can only conduct comprehensive self-research.
Even Tesla takes this approach.
What's more, Wang Yi's style is to focus on independent research and pay less attention to comprador work.
We don’t want to be overly dependent on third-party suppliers, which could easily lead to them being manipulated or even strangled.
Just like BYD in its previous life, like other car companies, many components are purchased from professional suppliers such as Bosch.
It turns out that Bosch is too unscrupulous. It sells its products at a high price to begin with, and relies on its monopoly position in the industry to raise prices at any time.
In this regard, other companies can only accept it and have no way to refuse. They have to buy no matter how much the price increases.
But BYD is different. It directly announced its own development plan and can completely abandon Bosch and develop its own alternative.
This scared Bosch to death.
Given BYD's size, once it develops its own products, Bosch will directly lose a super big customer and its sales will plummet.
More importantly, BYD will not only use its self-developed products for itself, but will also sell them to other car companies at the same time, and the price is even only half of Bosch.
In this way, Bosch not only loses BYD, a super big customer, but all of Bosch's other customers will also be taken away by BYD, which will cause Bosch to suffer heavy losses.
In response, Bosch immediately knelt down and decisively cancelled the price increase for BYD, only asking the big brother to keep calm and not overturn the table...
Similar things are very common in the technology and automotive circles.
If you are unable to conduct your own research, foreign giants will only treat you as a big victim and a fat sheep and reap endless profits.
But as long as you can develop it yourself, you will be the boss. Foreign giants will be eager to sell it to you at cost price, just ask you not to produce it yourself.
All I can say is that full-stack self-developed research still has a future!
Seeing Wang Yi coming, the entire Xingyi Automobile executives were very excited.
This is the first time that Wang Yi has come here to inspect since the Xingyi Automobile Project was launched in 2012, nearly two years ago.
This seemingly indifferent attitude towards car manufacturing not only did not cause the Xingyi Automobile team to slack off, but instead further motivated the team's research and development!
Sometimes, the more you value a team, the more it may drift and produce less results.
On the contrary, Wang Yi's seemingly indifferent attitude has made the automotive team feel a huge crisis in the past two years.
They are afraid that if there is no output, the entire company will be killed or even the entire business unit will be abandoned.
Based on this concern, the car manufacturing team worked diligently and gave their all, just to produce results as soon as possible.
The progress was also much faster than Wang Yi expected.
After Song Sining introduced a series of executives, Zou Zefeng, vice president of Xingyi Automobile, smiled and said:
"Chairman, it's past ten o'clock now. The banquet is ready. Do you think we should go eat first, or..."
Wang Yi waved his hand: "There's no rush to eat, just eat in the cafeteria later. Let's go to the R&D center first!"
"Okay, Chairman, please come this way." Zou Zefeng was not surprised.
He knew very well that, unlike other chairmen, Wang Yi was very pragmatic. He did not look at those empty words but only at actual R&D output.
Soon, the group arrived at the R&D center.
Zou Zefeng introduced: "Chairman, our motor department here is currently divided into two teams, one team develops the front motor, and the other develops the rear motor."
"At present, the front motor has been successfully developed and uses a permanent magnet synchronous motor. It has been tested for more than two months and has performed well. It has a maximum power of 200 horsepower and a maximum torque of 320N·m. The maximum speed is 16000 rpm and it is oil-cooled."
"The rear motor is also a permanent magnet synchronous motor. The single motor has a maximum power of 370 horsepower, a maximum torque of 380, a maximum speed of 20000 rpm, and adopts an oil-cooled + liquid-cooled dual-cycle cooling method."
"We have also made a prototype of the rear motor and have been testing it for a month. So far, there are no problems and the performance is very strong, but we still need to continue testing."
"Very good, the progress is very good." Wang Yi was very satisfied.
It is already very good that the first generation of motors can achieve this level.
It has surpassed the motor of Tesla Model S.
The current model S is still the first generation, using an induction motor, which is quite poor and completely inferior to the permanent magnet motor of the Xingyi car.
Of course, Tesla is also currently developing permanent magnet motors, and will launch a dual motor with front induction and rear permanent magnet on the next Model X.
At the same time, in 2016, the Model S will also be launched with a facelift, upgraded to a four-wheel drive version with front induction and rear permanent magnet dual motors.
Previously, Xingyi Automobile was originally planned to be put into mass production and launched in 2016.
But according to the current progress, it will most likely be available on the market next year.
Tesla's Model X will also begin delivery in September 2015, coinciding with the same period.
Therefore, the biggest rival of Xingyi Automobile is Tesla Model X.
As for the Model S, the Model S before the facelift is no match for the Xingyi Auto, but if it is facelifted the year after, it will be a head-on competition.
The model X has very good performance and is priced very high, ranging from 7 to 15 US dollars.
It is even more expensive in China, costing 85 to 100 million!
However, the first generation of Xingyi Automobile's products is not suitable for such a high price.
On the contrary, Wang Yi would set the price between 40 and 100 million.
In the domestic market, the Xingyi car, which starts at 50 yuan, can still sell well despite being comparable to BBA.
If it starts at 85 like the model X, then sales will be dismal.
Even though cars were still expensive in 2015, including BBA, their sales were dismal despite such high prices.
For example, Mercedes-Benz C, BMW 3, Audi A4, as long as they are not old models that are about to be remodeled, the 2.0T version costs about 3.0 yuan these days, and the 50T version costs yuan.
The starting price of Xingyi car is 40, which is just right.
The low-end version competes head-on with BBA's C34.
Mid-range version, comparable to E56.
High-end version, comparable to Mercedes-Benz S, BMW 7 Series, and Audi A8.
The standard version still sells in large quantities, while the high-end version pursues profits.
"What's the cost?" Wang Yi asked.
The performance of the motor is good, but the cost is also important. If the cost is too high, it will be troublesome.
"Chairman, the cost of these two motors is not high. Based on an annual production of 5 units, the front motor costs about 1.3 RMB, and the rear motor costs about 2.3 RMB. The four-wheel drive dual-motor version costs about RMB."
"If the annual production is 20 units, the cost of the front motor can be reduced to 7000, and the cost of the rear motor can be reduced to 9000. The cost of the four-wheel drive dual motor is about 1.6."
"It's okay." Wang Yi said, but he was very sure in his heart.
This cost is even lower than Tesla's.
Tesla's dual motor costs 33,000 yuan, which is much more expensive than Xingyi Auto.
The reason is that Tesla motors are divided into permanent magnet motors and induction motors, and the cost of the two motors is definitely higher than the cost of a single type of motor.
In addition, due to the lack of large-scale production, the cost of Tesla motors cannot be reduced at all.
By 2016, when Tesla's Nevada motor plant goes into production, its scale will be expanded and its annual production capacity will reach 20 motors. Then the cost of Tesla's dual motors is expected to be reduced by another 30% to RMB 2.3.
But it is still much more expensive than the 1.6 RMB sold by Xingyi Technology.
The reason is simple: domestic labor costs and resource costs are much lower than those abroad.
In addition, the production of permanent magnet motors requires neodymium iron boron magnets, which account for 40% of the material cost.
The price of rare earths is very high at present, with neodymium priced at about $50/kg.
As the world's largest producer of rare earths, Xiaguo is much cheaper and has much lower costs.
It can be said that after the Xingyi car goes into mass production next year, the cost of the Xingyi car in terms of motor alone will be much lower than that of Tesla.
Even though the Xingyi car uses dual permanent magnet motors, Tesla uses a cheap induction motor + permanent magnet motor.
"Chairman, these two motors are just standard versions, which can achieve 370 horsepower for a single motor rear-wheel drive and 570 horsepower for a four-wheel drive dual motor. They are better than most versions of the Model S."
Zou Zefeng continued: "However, Tesla is constantly upgrading, and we will also innovate and continue to develop more powerful and better-performing motors."
"Very good." Wang Yi nodded with satisfaction.
The 570-horsepower four-wheel drive version is considered quite impressive these days for a car that costs less than $.
But it is still not good enough to compete with Tesla's top-end cars worth millions. Wang Yi knows that next year's top-end version of Tesla's Model X, the Model X P90D, will have over a thousand horsepower.
Of course, the selling price also reached one million RMB.
Therefore, Xingyi Automobile must also continue to improve.
Afterwards, Wang Yi inspected the research and development centers of electronic control, batteries, etc.
Because Wang Yi was willing to spend money to recruit people and invest in research and development, the research and development progress of the electronic control system and batteries far exceeded Wang Yi's expectations.
Both have standard versions, which have slight advantages over the current levels of Tesla and BYD.
But the advantage is not obvious.
But this is not a problem. The high-end version is also being developed simultaneously, but the progress is not as fast.
The research and development of the three-electric system all adopts a dual-team model.
One team is responsible for the standard version, focusing on standard cars priced around RMB 400,000.
Another team is responsible for developing high-end versions, which will be used in luxury cars priced at RMB 700,000 or even one million.
While the two teams share their technologies, they will also engage in healthy internal competition, greatly accelerating the pace of research and development.
As for tripping each other up in order to suppress the other party?
This is not realistic.
There is no other reason. The two teams use the same system and the core technologies are the common achievements.
If you trip up the other party and affect the development of the entire system, your own progress will also be delayed, and it will be a lose-lose situation in the end.
In addition, the personnel and executives of the two teams are not static.
The R&D personnel and executives currently in the standard team who perform well will be transferred to the high-end team later.
Similarly, sometimes R&D personnel and executives from the high-end team will be transferred to the standard team to take the lead in technical support.
Sometimes when launching new projects, we will also draw on additional staff.
No one can predict which team you will be on in the future. If you try to trip up the other team, you might end up getting hurt.
Moreover, there are traces to follow during the technological development process. Once we are caught, the consequences will be disastrous.
Compared to going to jail, a million-dollar annual salary is better.
"How is the progress of the whole vehicle?" Wang Yi asked again.
"Chairman, several new energy vehicles have been produced as test vehicles." Zou Zefeng took Wang Yi to the vehicle testing workshop:
"One is a new energy sedan, Xingyi S5, which competes with Tesla model S and BBA's E56!"
"Xingyi S5 has two versions. One is the rear-wheel drive version with 370 horsepower. Its performance crushes BBA's E56 and can also surpass Model S. Our permanent magnet motor is much more powerful than their induction motors."
"The other four-wheel drive version, with dual permanent magnet motors at the front and rear, has 570 horsepower, which is even more powerful."
"In addition, there is also a new energy SUV, the Xingyi X5 test car has also been produced, which is also divided into rear-wheel drive version and four-wheel drive version. The motor configuration and power are the same as S5."
“The next two cars, four models, will undergo a series of tests.”
"If there are no problems, our electrical engineering, battery factory, etc. will all go into mass production quickly."
"At present, the first phase of the parts factory has been completed, and there are no problems with the commissioning of the trial production line. Other production lines are also being installed and debugged. As long as a series of tests are carried out to confirm that the reliability of the motor and battery is no problem, mass production can begin before the end of the year."
Xingyi Automobile’s 400 billion investment is not only R&D investment, but also factory investment.
Similarly, the factory is not only a vehicle manufacturing plant, but also a manufacturing plant for core components such as motors and batteries.
If the soldiers and horses are not moving, the grain and grass will go first.
The construction of core parts factories is progressing much faster than that of automobile factories.
They are also built in phases.
Currently, the first phase of the factory has been completed and trial production has been successfully carried out.
We are just waiting to confirm that there are no problems with the motors and batteries developed before we can start formal mass production.
Next, we will test the stability for a few more months. If there are no problems, we can start mass production in the fourth quarter.
Zou Zefeng continued, "Chairman, we have fully self-developed and produced the three-electric system and other core components, and will start mass production in the fourth quarter. Non-core components are purchased from third parties. We have introduced some upstream and downstream supply chains near the Xingyi Automobile Production Base, as well as in Shanghai."
"Near our Xingyi Auto Super Factory, many upstream and downstream supply chains have also established branches. Some parts suppliers are located in nearby provinces and cities, and all of them have been communicated with properly."
"As long as we complete the testing of the test vehicle in the second half of the year, we can have them start mass production of the parts we need in the fourth quarter and deliver them before the end of the year."
"It just so happens that the first phase of our vehicle factory will be ready for trial production or even small-scale mass production before the end of the year. After the production capacity is ramped up, we will gradually start mass production of Xingyi Automobile S5 and X5 in the first half of next year."
Wang Yi was very satisfied with the speed of progress. It was two years faster than the node in the bet with Shanghai.
According to the bet agreement, the product will be successfully developed by the end of 2015 and put into mass production before the end of 2016.
It now looks like the product will be successfully developed in the first half of 2014, and will be put into small-scale mass production before the end of the year.
It is extremely impressive to realize the bet agreement two years ahead of schedule.
But production capacity is a problem.
Making cars is different from making mobile phones. The production capacity of mobile phones can be increased quickly and on a large scale, so it is not difficult to produce tens of millions of units per month.
But making cars is too complicated. It is not easy to produce 10,000 units per month, let alone tens of millions.
It takes many car companies more than half a year or even a year to reach a monthly production of 10,000 units.
Wang Yi looked at Zou Zefeng and asked, "At this rate of progress, can we put S5 and X5 into full-scale mass production in January next year?"
"Sure, no problem!"
"What's the production capacity?"
“一月份算是全面量产的第一个月,产能不会很多,估计月产2000辆。也就是S5、X5各1000辆。经过产能爬坡,三月份能够达到月产6000辆,也就是S5、X5各各3000辆。6月份能达到月产1万辆,也就是S5、X5各各5000辆。预计明年总产量10万辆左右。2016年一期厂房总产量12万辆。”
"In addition, the second phase of the plant will be completed in the fourth quarter of next year and will start production in January 2016, but it will also experience a capacity ramp-up. Similar to the first phase of the plant, the total output of the second phase of the plant in 1 will be around 2016 vehicles. In 10, the total output of the second phase of the plant will be 2017 vehicles."
"All in all, the total production next year will be 10 vehicles, and the total production capacity of the first and second phases of the plant in 2016 will be 22 vehicles."
"In 2017, the total annual production capacity of Phase I and Phase II will be 24 vehicles. With the Phase III plant also put into production, the total production capacity will reach 2017 vehicles in 34."
"Of course, this is just our plan. As for the specific progress, it depends on the market situation. If the annual production capacity of 22 vehicles is saturated or even overflowed the year after next, there is no need to rush to put the third phase of the factory into production."
Zou Zefeng explained it in great detail and Wang Yi understood it.
At present, new energy vehicles are still in their infancy and sales are not very high.
If everything goes according to plan and the three-phase factory building is fully operational in 2017 with an annual production capacity of 34, it may not be sold.
It would be good if we can even sell the 2016 vehicles of the first and second phases in 22.
There is no way, 2016 is not 2026.
Tesla, for example, currently only relies on the Model S, which was not available for sale in China last year. It also has a high price and global sales of only over 30,000 units.
When it goes on sale in China next year, sales will reach around 5.
By the time Model X goes on sale in 2016, Tesla's sales will reach around 8.
In 2017, after the launch of Autopilot 1.0 assisted driving, Tesla's sales reached 10.
But sales are still not high. The reason is simple: the battery technology is not powerful these days, the pure electric range is short, and many people do not recognize it.
Moreover, Tesla's model S and model X are too expensive, ranging from 70 to 100 million RMB, so they are bound to sell in small quantities.
等到2018年,3.5万–5万美元的model 3大规模交付,特斯拉的销量就直接达到25万台。
Then 35, 50, 130 million, 180 million, million...
To put it bluntly, it’s not that consumers don’t recognize new energy vehicles, but that they don’t recognize new energy vehicles with short battery life and high prices.
Even if Tesla's annual sales reach 180 million units ten years later, the total sales of high-end model S and model X will only be around 7 units, and the remaining 173 million units will be cheap model 3 and model Y.
There is no way around it. The model S and model X, priced between RMB 70 and RMB 100, are destined to be the flowers of the high mountains and destined to have very few sales.
The model 20 and model Y priced between RMB 35 and RMB 3 are the main sales drivers.
Wang Yi understood the logic and looked at Zou Zefeng: "The third phase of the factory is being built as scheduled, and the fourth phase is also being built as scheduled. There is no need to worry about not being able to sell it."
"The core reason why new energy vehicle sales are low at present is not that no one buys them, but that their range is too short and their price is too high."
"As long as we can solve the problem of short battery life, the annual sales of our Xingyi car will not be 50,000 or 60,000 units like Tesla, but 200,000 units!"
“If we can solve the problem of high prices and make them more affordable, our annual sales will not be 20 units, but 40 units!”
"If we can achieve intelligent driving, our Xingyi car's annual sales will be 100 million units! Or even higher!"
"What restricts sales is not the times, but the product strength!"
Zou Zefeng and others' expressions changed slightly and they nodded repeatedly.
I just felt that Wang Yi's words were profound and enlightening.
Zou Zefeng pondered, "Chairman, current new energy vehicles are limited by battery technology, so their range is bound to be limited, and their cost is also limited. For example, Tesla's model S60, with 362 horsepower, has a theoretical range of only 335 kilometers, and its actual range is even shorter. In winter, the battery life is severely degraded, and its actual range is even lower, so it is only suitable for commuting in the city. And the price is as high as 65!"
"As for the Model S 85 and Model S P85, their range has reached 400 kilometers, but their prices have also reached 70 to 100 million yuan, and 400 kilometers of pure electric range is not enough. These two major problems are not easy to solve."
Wang Yi smiled: "So our research and development direction is completely different from Tesla's. Our main direction is not pure electric vehicles, but extended-range vehicles!"
"Batteries are expensive, so we use small batteries and internal combustion engines to extend the range. This way, there will be no problem commuting within the city, and you can refuel over long distances without worrying about being left on the road with a dead battery."
"Moreover, the fuel consumption of range-extended technology is much lower than that of pure gasoline, and the cost is much lower than that of pure electric technology. This perfectly solves the problems of short range and high price."
Use extended-range technology to compete with Tesla and defeat Tesla!
"How is the development of extended-range technology going?" Wang Yi asked.
"Chairman, according to your request, our range-extending technology is also progressing smoothly. The first generation has been successfully developed and produced."
"We use electric motors for direct drive, without mechanical parts such as clutches and gearboxes. The internal combustion engine is only used to generate electricity and increase the driving range. The main features are low fuel consumption, long driving range and low cost."
(End of this chapter)
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