America started its counterattack from the bum

Chapter 428: Feast of Wolves 6: The Inevitable Flaws of Bounded Rationality Game Strategies
(The author suffers from cognitive super-male syndrome, and many of his understandings are rather unconventional, but generally speaking there should be nothing wrong with them. If there are any mistakes or omissions, please point them out - sincerely)

From the macro perspective of productivity and production relations, the development of human society is driven by cooperation and competition among different social entities. In this competitive relationship, social individuals and social organizations strictly abide by the principle of survival of the fittest over a sufficiently long time scale.

At the specific game level, the interests of the main players in the game are different, and the designers of the system have an unshirkable mission to optimize the rules of the game.

However, all designs that pursue absolute rationality are biased - absolute rationality never exists stably.

The premise of the rational person hypothesis is that the target person has complete knowledge and understanding, consistent interest preferences, strong computing ability, and insight into the boundaries of utility maximization.

However, most organizations and individuals cannot meet these conditions.

Dialectical materialism is a method of approaching truth and objectivity, but truth and objectivity do not exist in strict staticness under the premise of their own dynamism.

In general, the problem with the rational assumption is that people’s motivations for deciding the effectiveness of their behavior include not only material benefits, but also factors that do not necessarily satisfy the rational assumption.

Nevertheless, from the perspective of achieving maximum efficiency and fairness, classical mechanism design should assume that individuals’ rationality always pursues maximizing material benefits, thereby guiding people to achieve healthy competition through institutional design.

Behavioral economists have made many useful explorations in the construction and improvement of this complex system. Their mainstream view is that after introducing more motivation functions or influencing factors, game system design and game prediction based on bounded rationality are feasible.

For example, the irrationality of Niu Sen and Will in participating in the BEC coin project is due to their greed for profit, the support of the herd mentality, and the reverse influence of risk aversion - Mr. Cheng gave them a sense of security, and they knew that they should not participate in decision-making due to sunk costs, but they were still passively affected by the endowment effect.

For example, the conflict between Lake's desire for actual power within the LAPD and Garcetti's guidance on "unity" reflects Lake's own lack of understanding and the natural deviation of decision-making errors.

Going a little deeper, the most complicated point of this game lies in the changes in interests between Mr. Cheng and Niu Sen, the interweaving of rational and irrational factors, and the deviations caused by the dominance of interests and the influence of personal ideology.

Based on the increase or decrease in both parties' dominance over the game, the overall understanding of game information and the changes in influencing factors in the decision-making process, Mr. Cheng constantly adjusts the interest points he relies on, thereby dynamically adjusting the overall risk level of the decision.

Even though there is suspicion of hindsight and drawing the trajectory based on bullet craters, judging from the development of the game, the game strategy based on bounded rationality is effective - the emergence of Black Satan is an example of this.

This kind of effectiveness does not necessarily mean that there is a gain. The way of heaven lies in the circulation of yin and yang. The effectiveness or significance of a strategy is composed of both positive and negative sides. Many things that only mention positive effects are chicken soup and nonsense.

The assumption of absolute rationality itself is absolutely flawed. Correspondingly, the prediction and design of complex games under the premise of limited rationality also have absolute flaws.

Because the existence of limited rationality itself has many shortcomings, such as the ambiguity of reference objects, endowment effect, probability bias, cognitive limitations, natural uncertainty in decision-making, and changes in game evolution.

If we want to approach the limit of bounded rationality in the game, we need to introduce more influencing factors and motivation functions. The more influencing factors or motivation functions we introduce, the greater the risk of failure of the game strategy due to the irrationality of these newly added variables.

Well, it seems that we are back to the logical error of 'the bigger the fish, the smaller the fish', but in actual games, there are countless cases that conform to the evolution of game strategies based on bounded rationality.

But does this mean that predictions about games under bounded rationality are invalid? Does this mean that the research of behavioral economists is useless?
Of course not, time scales and iterations in repeated games are important variables.

Time scale - social individuals and social organizations strictly adhere to the principle of survival of the fittest on a sufficiently long time scale.

Alternation of strategies in repeated games - after introducing more motivation functions or influencing factors, game system design and game prediction based on bounded rationality are feasible.

After clarifying the importance of these two variables, the value of the "spiral rise" theory and the "contradiction transformation" theory becomes apparent.

To put it simply, it is based on the principle of "you can't eat hot tofu in a hurry", adheres to the game strategy of "fighting but not breaking", under the guidance of "existence is everything", uses the "practical method of dialectical materialism" as the struggle idea, and waits for the turning point of the game to come.

Stay put, observe information, grasp contradictions, and wait for the opportunity!
Although the bounded rationality game theory under behavioral economics has many shortcomings, its level of environmental degradation is still quite low and it is one of the more cutting-edge practical theories in modern economics.

The fact that Garcetti sought help from Black Satan itself is consistent with the behavior of hiding first and then observing and collecting information. The purpose of this behavior is to grasp the changes in contradictions in the complex game and thus judge the timing.

It can even be said that as relatively modern cutting-edge economic ideas, Garcetti and Black Satan both have behavioral patterns that are consistent with those successful people in bounded rational game strategies.

"Now that BEC has gone up, have you considered how to end it?"

Black Satan, this question is very considerate.

Little brother, you are in trouble. I am on your side now.

Come on, tell us what you think about how the game between the Grand Commander and the California Gang will end.

“As for BEC itself, there are two main people involved. One is Temir behind Gru and her new Shi, and the other is Niu Sen.

I am more inclined to make peace with Temir, Mr. Barak, what do you think?"

Black Satan nodded. He was very rational, and so was Garcetti.

He hopes to use Garcetti to gain certain benefits for his faction, but when the situation becomes complicated, Garcetti does not want to get involved in trouble at all.

The only additional benefit he expected was to gain control over the LAPD through his compromise with Mi'er, nothing more.

How could Garcetti not understand Lake's thoughts?
As the leader of a faction, he must of course consider the interests of his subordinates.

As a person, you can’t be too Tonks, otherwise you won’t even have ashes left.

Don't you think so, Gru?
"You are the mayor of San Lorenzo, and the center of the California Elephant Party is also in San Lorenzo. You should consider maintaining a long-term cooperative relationship with them and not make it too rigid."

Black Satan’s words are very interesting. How to understand them depends on the individual.

Anyway, Mayor Garcetti is quite good at playing dumb. He also comes from the intelligence agencies and has rich experience in struggle.

"Yes, you are right. San Lorenzo is the second largest city in the United States. I cannot seek one-party control without considering the overall situation. I still have to maintain some friendly relations with the California Elephant Party.

The BEC coin investigation is a good opportunity. Although it is unclear why Temir did not find the commander-in-chief to interfere with the investigation, she has an interest in it after all."

Politics and economy have always been inseparable. President Cheng and Mi'er have been operating against the wind all the way to today. The political power they have gathered in California, at least in San Roquefort, is a force that no one can ignore.

The big picture, the friendly connection, her interests, Garcetti made his case to Barack.

Garcetti has always been a pragmatic figure, otherwise he would not have become the longest-serving mayor in the history of Saint-Lo.

Black Satan was not surprised to see him make such a pragmatic decision, Barak smiled.

"I'm glad you thought of me first when you were in trouble - even though I didn't help you much, hahaha."

Black Satan stood up and accompanied Garcetti all the way to the gate.

"This makes me feel a little ashamed, Mr. Barak. If you need anything in Saint-Lô, please feel free to contact me!" The two hugged each other politely before parting, and then Barak stood at the door and watched Garcetti leave.

Seeing that the mayor's car had disappeared, Black Satan took out a specially made satellite phone.

"Come see me."

"In Saint-Lodu, Chief Huth, are my words no longer effective now?"

The former supreme leader of the United States is different from that of other countries. Although Mr. Barack is gone, the tea is not cold at all.

The fact that a reform was scrapped is just a matter of reform and has nothing to do with his strength as the leader of the faction. How could his words be ineffective?
Many people only know that Barack was born in the United States, grew up in Indonesia, and his mother was an anthropologist conducting research in Indonesia.

In fact, Barack's mother was most likely an agent of the American special intelligence system stationed in Indonesia - almost an open secret that everyone knows.

During his tenure, America's intelligence system experienced a lavish budget expansion, with its personnel and power reaching their highest level since Hoover.

On the one hand, he has the support of the intelligence agencies. On the other hand, as a person with a politically correct skin color, Barak has a significant influence in the ethnic party group dominated by people with the politically correct skin color.
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The complexity of the modern police system is beyond the understanding of many people. From the perspective of understanding, the actual situation and the understanding of ordinary people are completely different.

Within the LAPD alone, the four major police stations are considered the "local power factions", and the headquarters directly under the sheriff belongs to the "central faction". In addition to the local power factions and the central faction, the LAPD is also subject to horizontal management constraints from multiple regulatory departments.

For example, in terms of finance, it is subject to the constraints of the Saint-Lô Metropolitan Council; in terms of compliance in police enforcement, it is subject to the Conduct Review Committee commissioned by the City Council, and so on.

Since the supervision is very strict, why does Gru still appear?
The complexity of the US police issue, the out-of-control of supervision and the effective Schrödinger state, can be seen from the political slogans of both candidates for the presidency. Taking the two sides of the 2024 election as an example, both sides clearly have completely opposite positions on the US police issue.

Back to that humorous question, these two candidates with completely opposite political views both claim that they are just, so how should the problem of American police be solved?

Fortunately, America is big enough. Perhaps, when things get out of control, the great America can accommodate two presidents.

However, none of this has anything to do with Burns.

As Lake's hand-picked assaulter, the senior police inspector is now the chief of the LAPD's drug enforcement department.

Lake and Burns certainly don't have the courage to take action against drug lords. All they can do is strike back at the street distributors. How to deal with drug lords is the job of the special intelligence department.

Compared to fighting drug lords, the purpose of Burns' existence is to allow Lake to have some kind of deterrent against white-world gangs - but that doesn't mean he will use it.

Sheriff Lake's concern about the BEC case shows that he would rather deal with Gru's remnants with clever tactics rather than a direct confrontation. After all, the complexity of internal contradictions is a hurdle that every leader cannot avoid.

"Mr. Burns, I'm sorry to bother you so late, but our secret informant has obtained urgent intelligence.

Tonight a truck carrying hundreds of kilograms of ice will arrive in Saint-Lo to distribute the goods. Because it happened so suddenly, we don't have time to prepare any contingency plans.

I wonder if it would be convenient for you to come over and give us some guidance?"

The caller was Burns's men. The inspector used his hand to comfort his wife who was awakened and preached to the other end of the phone.

"Is the informant's information reliable?"

"Of course it's reliable. This informant gave accurate information twice before. It's just that his fee is a bit expensive."

Burns was slightly excited and quickly gave instructions.

"Expensive is not a problem, I'll be there right away!"

Being a dog for your boss can ensure the stability of your power and make it easier to get opportunities for promotion in the future.

But as a US police officer, you always have to subdue your subordinates. If your professional level is not good, you will be treated as an idiot by those US police officers who only have a high school education.

No matter how high your position is, if you have no achievements, your subordinates will treat you as a fool.

Therefore, Burns attaches great importance to the intelligence of the informant.

Under the command of the police inspector who remained calm and had a complete strategy, the LAPD's drug enforcement department cooperated with the highway patrol department to fight a perfect "battle".

The truck driver who was transporting goods was a tough guy. When faced with the interception by the highway patrol, he just fired at the police car with his AK.

However, under the command of Inspector Burns, the police officers bravely shot the murderer dead on the spot!

Even large trucks carrying goods were overturned by the police.

The SWT, which is directly under the LAPD, is equipped with police armored vehicles, which are huge vehicles weighing several tons.

On a certain section of Highway 10, the TV station's news helicopter was making a huge noise in the sky, and the sirens of police cars also created a tense atmosphere.

Not content with standing outside the cordon and taking pictures of the overturned truck, the reporters tried to get closer to the law enforcement scene but were stopped by the police officers.

Reporters in movies can just hold up their press cards and take photos mindlessly, but in reality, this is completely impossible.

The police officers also have reasonable reasons for this - we will release the body camera images afterwards, and you'd better wait for the news instead of causing trouble for us.

Although the police officers dare not offend the media, the media can only accept this rule.

"You, go open the car and search other places as well. The cab, the bumper, the inside of the tires, the chassis. Search them all thoroughly. Why hasn't the police dog come yet?"

Surrounded by a group of police officers, Inspector Burns put his hands on his hips and issued orders calmly.

"SIR, the person on duty in the drug detection dog team tonight is handling a case. We have urgently notified the other team members and they will be here soon!"

Burns nodded seriously and watched the police officer in the distance open the door of the truck container.

But what’s strange is that after the police officer opened the door, he seemed to have discovered something extraordinary and closed it immediately.

Inspector Burns was somewhat puzzled by this.

(End of this chapter)