Three Kingdoms: My Strategy Simulator

What Sima Yi said was also agreed by many of his disciples.

He was a cunning villain who was a "slave of three surnames". Even his two adoptive fathers died at his hands. Would such a person abide by the covenant?
Xu Shu's inference may be the best decision for Yuan Shu now. He would form an alliance with Lu Bu on the condition of "Nanyang County" to share the pressure from Liu Bei through Lu Bu, and then have the opportunity for the two Yuans to meet in Yanzhou.

But Lu Bu is a fickle person, and considering Lu Bu's own interests, how could he be willing to do things that help others?

It is true that Liu Bei was powerful, but precisely because of Liu Bei's power, even if Lu Bu took over Nanyang County, he might not be willing to fight Liu Bei to the death.

On the contrary, he should tear up the alliance after taking Nanyang County, and tacitly form an alliance with Liu Bei to divide Yuan Shu. This would prevent Lu Bu, who had suffered heavy losses in his troops, from becoming a prey to the Yuan family after the Yuan family became powerful. This would be the approach that best suited Lu Bu's interests.

Moreover, if the two families divided Yuan Shu equally, even if Yuzhou was obtained by Liu Bei, Lu Bu would have Sili, Nanyang County, and Yanzhou in his hands, and would be able to fight Liu Bei.

And controversy arises from this.

Xu Shu believed that Yuan Shu would not be a fool. If he gave Nanyang County to Lu Bu for free to form an alliance, he must have a way to prevent Lu Bu from biting him back.

However, Sima Yi judged that no matter how the alliance was formed, after Lu Bu took over Nanyang County, he would not choose to fight to the death with Liu Bei, but would instead turn against Yuan Shu to fight for Yanzhou.

As a result, the situations deduced by Xu Shu and Sima Yi from different standpoints naturally led to conflicts.

In essence, this is a debate about whether Lü Bu will break the alliance, and whether Yuan Shu dares to trust Lü Bu's alliance.

Li Ji actually had some related speculations about Xu Shu and Sima Yi.

Lu Bu's reputation was too great, and anyone who wanted to form an alliance with him had to consider the fate of Dong Zhuo and Ding Yuan.

However, after Li Ji nodded slightly, he turned his gaze to Pang Tong and said.

"How did Pang Tong make his judgment?"

Pang Tong stood up and saluted, then shook his messy hair, looking ugly and unruly, and then spoke.

"Teacher, in the Central Plains situation, apart from Tao Qian, the only person who can influence the overall situation is Cao Mengde of Qingzhou."

"Cao Mengde may seem loyal, but he is actually an ambitious and treacherous person, and his ambition may be to rule the world."

"In Xu Shu's inference, Cao Mengde is regarded as a helper who assisted the Yuan family in controlling Yanzhou. I don't agree with it."

Li Ji did not interrupt Pang Tong, but continued to listen.

If it were a year ago, perhaps many people would still think that Cao Cao was a loyal and honest person.

However, as Cao Cao spared no effort to quell the Yellow Turbans in Qingzhou, and then used many bloody means to control the entire Qingzhou, and even proclaimed himself the governor of Qingzhou, he showed his heroic spirit.

"If Yuan Shu gets Yanzhou, Cao Cao will have to retreat to Qingzhou. But Cao Cao, who has just taken Qingzhou, may not be able to fight with Yuan for Yanzhou."

"There are only two ways out for Qingzhou, Yanzhou or Xuzhou! In my opinion, Cao Cao must attack Xuzhou, and he must join forces with Yuan Shu to take Xuzhou together, so that he can cut off the arm of Emperor Liu first."

This inference is somewhat novel.

Li Ji asked.

"However, Cao Cao and Yuan Shu alone will not be able to take Xuzhou. Tao Qian is under attack, and the lord must rescue him. Whether he sends troops directly to help or attacks Yuzhou directly, he can lift the siege of Xuzhou. What should we do?"

Although Tao Qian no longer has the courage and ability he used to have as he got older, Xuzhou's military force is not weak. Even if they just defend the city, it will not be captured in a short time.

In addition, with Liu Bei as an ally, it is unimaginable how difficult it would be to capture Xuzhou.

"Teacher, what if Yuan Shu gave Nanyang County to Lu Bu in exchange for Lu Bu sending troops to attack Jingzhou?"

After a pause, Pang Tong spoke.

"Lü Bu also knew the threat from Uncle Liu, and he also knew that he couldn't let Yuan Shu take over Yanzhou. But if Yuan Shu didn't choose to go north to take Yanzhou, it would be entirely possible to maintain a delicate alliance to weaken Uncle Liu."

After hearing this, Li Ji also felt refreshed.

Pang Tong's inference is completely unconventional, but it is not without feasibility.

The situation is often such that one small move can affect the entire situation.

Lu Bu might not be able to accept being a favor to Yuan Shu and restraining Liu Bei, but Yuan Shu and Cao Cao's attack on Xuzhou was also an invisible effort to restrain Liu Bei.

Liu Bei would not turn a blind eye to the predicament in Xuzhou and would certainly send troops to rescue Tao Qian. In this way, Liu Bei would have to fight on two fronts, and Lu Bu, Yuan Shu, and Cao Cao would all have the opportunity to benefit.

Sima Yi retorted.

"Have you forgotten that Lu Bu could have chosen not to get entangled with Uncle Liu and instead took the opportunity to attack Yanzhou with all his strength?"

"No!" Pang Tong.

"Why are you so sure?"

"Lü Bu can indeed make such a choice, but what will Liu Huangshu choose between assisting Xuzhou and seizing the undermanned Nanyang County?"

Pang Tong argued.

"If Lu Bu does not attack Yanzhou, the three families will gain benefits and resist Liu Bei. If Lu Bu attacks Yanzhou, when Liu Bei seizes Nanyang County, Yuan Shu and Cao Cao can also turn to attack Lu Bu."

"In this case, it is Lu Bu who will be attacked from both sides."

"Even if Lu Bu is unwise, how could Chen Gongtai and Chen Changwen not see this situation? No one in Yanzhou is taking it, which is the key to maintaining this delicate alliance. Lu Bu will not break it rashly."

Sima Yi retorted, "You don't understand human nature at all. Lu Bu will definitely not miss the opportunity to take Yanzhou."

Xu Shu also shook his head and said.

"In my opinion, Yuan Shu is not so concerned about the overall situation. He would rather sacrifice Nanyang County and attack Xuzhou together with Cao Cao. He will still try to go north to Yanzhou."

Seeing that the three disciples seemed to be arguing again, Li Ji had to knock on the table with his folding fan to make them quiet down for a while.

I have to say that all three of them have their own reasons.

Then Li Ji looked at Zhuge Liang again and asked.

"Liang Er is thinking about the Lord, so what do you think?"

Zhuge Liang bowed and replied.

"We should remain unchanged in the face of ever-changing circumstances. No matter what Yuan Shu, Lu Bu, or Cao Cao plot, we only need to wait for Yuzhou or Nanyang County to show a flaw and attack it with all our might. This will open the door to the Northern Expedition to the Central Plains."

After hearing this, Li Ji couldn't help but reveal a look of satisfaction in his eyes.

In fact, Li Ji had taken into consideration what Sima Yi, Pang Tong and Xu Shu said, but in the absence of sufficient intelligence and unclear movements, Li Ji was also unable to be sure.

Li Ji's approach is actually basically consistent with Zhuge Liang's thinking, which is to respond to ever-changing situations by remaining unchanged.

From this perspective, Zhuge Liang, Sima Yi, Pang Tong, and Xu Shu made obvious progress in just over a year.

At least, among all the talented students, the four of them are already far ahead.

The different environment made them progress too quickly.

I'm afraid it won't take long before the help they can provide becomes increasingly limited if they are allowed to continue to roam freely in the academy.

Immediately, Li Ji did not judge who was right or wrong in their inferences, but pondered for a moment and spoke.

"Zhuge Liang, Sima Yi, Pang Tong, Xu Shu, the four of you are quite good."

"Thank you for the compliment, teacher."

The four of them responded in unison.

"No matter how the situation in the Central Plains changes, the lord's determination to march north to the Central Plains to support the Han Dynasty will not waver, and the time for the northern expedition to the Central Plains may come soon..."

When he said this, Li Ji smiled and said.

"Don't be lazy on weekdays. When we march north to the Central Plains, I can let you serve as my staff. What do you think?"

The four of them couldn't help but show ecstasy on their faces and quickly agreed.

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PS: Please give me a monthly ticket, godfathers, it’s the end of the month~~~
(End of this chapter)