Rebirth of the Capital Legend

"There were several pulses in the market today, but no effective upward breakthrough trend was formed." Seeing that the two markets had resumed the situation of shrinking and oscillating with a stalemate between long and short forces, He Zhong, one of the main speculators of the 'Gusu system', sighed and said, "It seems that around 2 o'clock in the afternoon, the market index and the stocks with relatively scarce market liquidity will have a more violent dive.

Once other weak main sectors of the market and the corresponding weak individual stocks show a rapid dive trend.

I'm afraid that the main line of 'big infrastructure', which has performed relatively mediocrely today, will not be able to withstand the selling pressure.

Since the upward momentum and the active buying funds in the market have already exhausted, then at this position... we must take profits first to avoid uncertainty. "

"I feel like there is still some support for the 'big infrastructure' line, right?" Old Qian took over and said, "Although it can't reach a high level, every time the market dives, there is a relatively strong support. With this potential strong support, I think even if there is a correction and a sell-off, it won't go much lower. On the contrary... once you sell the chips at this position, once there is no sell-off and a better low-level buying point appears, it will be easy to make a profit."

"Old Qian, do you mean that the 'big infrastructure' line will likely have a lot of room to move upward in the future?" Zhang Xinlei said, "I think it's difficult. Judging from the trend in the past few days, the explosion of the 'big infrastructure' line has siphoned off too many buying orders from other main lines of the market. In the current situation... if the stock game continues, there will be no buying liquidity in other main lines of the market for the 'big infrastructure' line to siphon off.

On the whole, there is naturally no problem with the underlying logic of the "big infrastructure" line.

The key is that the plate is a bit too big.

With the current market liquidity, it is a bit unrealistic for the main capital groups active in the market to continue to drive such a large main line market and develop a sustained upward trend.

And if you want to attract incremental funds from outside the market to intervene...

At present, the bullish sentiment and investment confidence of the entire market are not enough to attract off-market capital groups, so they choose the stock market with obviously lower profit effect between the real estate market and the stock market.

Since there is no intervention from off-market capital groups.

In addition, the buying liquidity of other main market lines in the venue was basically absorbed by the "big infrastructure" line.

There are also other subsequent market themes, especially those that have continued to oversell, such as film and television media, Internet software, and electronic information.

It is obviously difficult to break out the volume and it is difficult to release liquidity by a big drop.

Under the premise that it is difficult for these main sectors to release volume and liquidity, it is even more impossible for the core theme of "big infrastructure" to siphon the buying liquidity of individual stocks in these main sectors.

In other words, at the current time point, look forward to subsequent trading times.

As far as the line of 'big infrastructure' is concerned...

Let's not talk about logic, but only talk about the chip structure and the buying trend. We can foresee the "big infrastructure" line. The subsequent buying volume will most likely continue to reduce risks.

That is to say, I think what Lao He said about the drying up of buying in the main line of "big infrastructure" is still valid."

"This position can go up or down." Zheng Jinming heard the differences in the three people's views, pondered for a moment, and said, "From the perspective of stock game, the current situation of the main lines of the market, and the potential buying power, it is true that the potential buying power facing the 'big infrastructure' line is on a downward trend compared to the relatively low level a few days ago.

However, we must also take into account that most of the funds that have come in recently are the main institutional groups in the market.

These groups of funds are different from the large number of retail investor groups that have previously gathered in this field.

Relatively speaking, the main institutional capital group is more rational and has a slightly larger pattern, while the retail capital group basically follows the trend and chases rising and falling prices.

In other words, this seems to be the current position of the "big infrastructure" line.

There is no major change compared to the top position of the first wave of the "big infrastructure" main line market led by the "Hua Yi Capital" institution.

However, the market has experienced drastic fluctuations during this period.

Although the front and back positions of the two have not changed much, the internal chip structure is indeed completely different.

Previously in this position.

On the 'big infrastructure' line, there are many main funds that intervened at low levels in the early stage and sold their chips to a large number of retail investors who followed the trend and chased the rise.

Now, also in this position.

It is the main capital group that, through the violent fluctuations in the trend, took back the chips that they had sold before from the retail investors who followed the trend and panicked and sold off the stocks.

Therefore, although it is at the same height, the "big infrastructure" line is the actual chip structure.

But earth-shaking changes have taken place.

When the internal chip structure of the "big infrastructure" line has mostly settled, that is, the major capital groups involved have completed the initial positions and generally locked up the chips.

In fact, as long as the underlying logic of the "big infrastructure" line and future expectations are met, they will continue to improve.

So, this is actually the core theme.

Under the continued leadership of these major funds, there is no need to increase the volume too much. It is also possible to create sustained upward space in the form of shrinking volume.

This is the same as the previous main sectors of liquor, white goods, electricity, and medicine.

Look at the first half of the year, especially after the three stock market crashes last year, the entire market began to enter a defensive investment style.

The changes in volume during the continued upward trend of these major main lines.

By reviewing the trends and volume changes of the previous core sectors including liquor, white appliances, electricity, and medicine.

We can clearly notice that, while these major main sectors have nearly doubled in the first half of the year, the share prices of these major main sectors, including the core leading stocks where institutional main funds are heavily concentrated, are actually continuing to rise.

The volume is maintained at a low level.

This is also the case when the market as a whole is clearly in a deep bear market and liquidity is in a state of continuous exhaustion.

The reason why these big and huge main-line sectors can still experience a sustained upward trend.

Of course, this kind of trend is continuous rise without increasing volume.

The fundamental reason is that the main institutional funds groups, including the "national team", which are clustered in these main sectors, continue to lock up their positions.

Since the trend is continuing with shrinking volume and rising prices.

It can be played out in defensive main-line sectors such as liquor, white goods, medicine, consumption, electricity, and finance.

So, why can't it be played out on the line of "big infrastructure"? From the perspective of underlying logic and the expected direction of future performance explosion, it is obvious that the prospects of the core sectors of the current "big infrastructure" main line are clearer and more potential than those of the defensive main line sectors such as liquor, white appliances, medicine, consumption, electricity, and finance.

Furthermore, compare these defensive mainline sectors.

The overall position of the 'big infrastructure' line is also significantly lower.

Starting from the bottom of the entire "big infrastructure" main line last month, under the leadership of the institution "Huayi Capital", the entire main line market has generally rebounded by about 25% to 30%.

Compared with the nearly doubling of the market trends of defensive main-line sectors such as liquor, white appliances, medicine, consumption, electricity, banks, etc. in the past six months, this increase is considered a relatively low level, right?
Since the future prospects are expected to be better, the position is lower.

There is also the phenomenon of major institutional funds continuing to stick together.

It is obvious that the 'big infrastructure' line also has the opportunity for a large number of major institutional funds to band together and make a breakthrough in shrinking volume.

Moreover, I think the possibility of this trend is quite high.

Of course, is there a possibility of continuing to sell off and washing out chips at this position, further settling the chip structure within this range?
I think this possibility still exists.

It’s just that compared with the possibility of an upward breakthrough, this possibility is relatively small.

After all, many of the major financial institutions that have intervened in recent days have incurred high costs, and the market K-line trend has completed a double-needle bottoming pattern amid violent fluctuations.

If at this time, the price continues to fall and the market continues to shake violently.

To some extent...

On the contrary, it may fail to achieve the purpose of cleaning the market, and will only erode the investment confidence that the market has accumulated with great difficulty, and instead cause more retail investors to flock to the main line of "big infrastructure", making the overall chip structure of the current "big infrastructure" main line more dispersed.

So, I think this possibility is extremely small.

Unless at this critical juncture, there is suddenly a major negative news in the market, or the external market trend continues to plummet.

Only in this way can the overall risk aversion sentiment in the market be stimulated to rise rapidly.

This resulted in the 'big infrastructure' line continuing to adjust downward.

Moreover, it is almost certain that...

Once this happens, the "big infrastructure" line will continue to adjust sharply downward. Except for the several major defensive main lines of the market, the trends of other main market sectors will most likely be worse.

If this is the expected situation, then at this time, it should not be reducing positions, but clearing positions. "

"Old Zheng's analysis is really insightful." Old Qian laughed, "Indeed, the market trend is quite stalemate at the moment. It is possible to go up or down, but overall, it is definitely more likely to go up, right? If that's the case, then why reduce the position? It's right to increase the position.

Furthermore, the lack of certainty...

In the financial market, there is no such thing as certainty. Isn’t every transaction we make based on probability?

Since the probability of going up is high and the probability of going down is small, why not continue to go long?
Moreover, the stalemate in today's market trend is also due to the extremely bad performance of the U.S. stock market last Friday, and the overall decline in sentiment caused by the Hong Kong stock market opening sharply lower in the morning.

What if the U.S. stock market reverses tonight and overall market sentiment improves?
It is inevitable that the "big infrastructure" line will not provide a very good buying point.

In fact, let's analyze it in detail... Do you think there is a possibility of a collapse of the US stock market? I think the ten-year bull market of the US stock market is unlikely to end so suddenly.

Furthermore, it seems that there is no obvious bubble in the US stock market at present.”

"The probability of the U.S. stock market collapsing suddenly is not high." Zhang Xinlei pondered for a while and said, "From the perspective of the logic you mentioned, Lao Qian, the trend of the A-share market today is still in the green, which means it is not weak, but relatively strong."

Old Qian laughed and said, "Isn't that right?"

"Lao He, your courage...is getting smaller and smaller?" Lao Qian paused and teased, "A few trading days ago, when the market plummeted and panic selling occurred, where was your courage to invest heavily? Now it has only rebounded a little, and the profit margin has not really been realized yet, why are you thinking of retreating?"

He Zhong smiled and said, "Isn't it because I am confused about the market trend and the buying volume is not good? Moreover, in the bear market, based on previous operating experience, every time I made a profit of more than 10%, I always ended up falling back. It's not easy to see floating profits turn into floating losses for many consecutive times."

"That's true." Old Qian nodded slightly. "Except for the fact that the market was somewhat sustained under the leadership of the main fund 'Hua Yi Capital' some time ago, which allowed me to make a lot of money, the sustainability of this market has been questionable recently. I have also made floating profits into floating losses several times.

But this time, I really feel that the line of 'big infrastructure' can be broken through.

Is this the third time that the previous high point has been reached?

As the saying goes, things should not happen more than three times. If we cannot break through here and continue to fall and fluctuate, then the morale of the people that we have gathered with great difficulty will be dispersed.

Once people's morale is low, it will be difficult to lead the team.

Subsequent breakthroughs will not only be more difficult, but will also require greater amounts of capital.

There is also the institution 'Huayi Capital'. Mr. Su reused the seat of 'Fuxing Road' to increase his holdings and buy chips in a big way, continuously stimulating the market's bullish sentiment.

It is definitely not for the sake of earning 10% profit and the small profits in front of you.

I think that Mr. Su, the general manager of "Fuxing Road", will most likely continue to lead the "big infrastructure" line in this position and move forward in a breakthrough trend.

Furthermore, after this period of continuous adjustments, the chip structure of the entire "big infrastructure" main line.

It has indeed settled down almost completely.”

But despite his confidence, the majority of people were optimistic.

However, as several people discussed the market trend and the core theme of "big infrastructure" that everyone was paying attention to, the market trading time went on.

The entire industry sector related to the main line of "big infrastructure" and a number of popular core stocks.

There are also non-popular main lines in other markets, as well as small-cap and micro-cap concept stocks with relatively scarce liquidity.

However, it was completely different from what I just said. Not only did it not show a strong upward trend, but the selling pressure on the market became increasingly greater, and the downward dive gradually accelerated.

The entire market has become significantly weaker as trading hours go by. (End of this chapter)