Rebirth of the Capital Legend
Chapter 493: Liquidity’s constraints on the main market trend!
"Aren't the favorable news and fundamentals already clear?" Xu Qiao responded, "I think... we have to look at the expectations of the third quarter's performance report to determine the direction and height of the market trend of the 'big infrastructure' line, right?"
"I'm afraid that the performance of many stocks in the 'big infrastructure' line will not be reflected in the third quarter report." Lao Wu said, "After all, the performance of the entire real estate industry chain is relatively lagging behind the fundamentals. In the third quarter, it seems that the performance of many stocks will not change much. If we put expectations on the third quarter performance report... using this as the fundamental logic for hyping the 'big infrastructure' line is a bit problematic."
"I also think that from the perspective of performance expectations, the realization of the expectations of the 'big infrastructure' line will not be so fast." Lao Zhang also said, "Based on the current situation, the 'big infrastructure' line is definitely still moving on the emotional side, and there are more expectations on future policies. As for performance... At present, the main institutions in the market do not seem to talk about this matter generally, which also shows that the current hype of the 'big infrastructure' line is not driven by performance expectations."
"If we talk about performance expectations driving the market, then the weighted main-line sectors such as liquor, white goods, medicine, consumption, electricity, and finance will definitely be more suitable." Brother Chen said, "The 'big infrastructure' line is indeed driven by policy expectations at present, and there are more factors driving housing price expectations. However... it happens that performance has not yet been realized, but there is more room for expectations. The so-called hazy beauty is actually the most attractive."
"Haha..." Xu Qiao laughed and said, "Brother Chen's words are true."
"Let's take a look at the after-market Dragon and Tiger List first." Old Wu said, "Let's see how deeply the active capital groups in the market are involved in the main line of 'big infrastructure' and the line of 'oversold rebound'."
After saying that, Old Wu turned his gaze to the Dragon and Tiger List interface of the two cities.
At this time, the time had just moved to 5 o'clock in the afternoon, and the Dragon and Tiger Lists of the two cities were refreshed.
According to the disclosed buying and selling data of the Dragon and Tiger List, several core popular stocks such as 'Oriental Yuhong', 'Quantong Education', 'Capital Group', etc., which are the focus of many investors in the market, are all on the Dragon and Tiger List.
Among them, on the Dragon and Tiger List buying and selling seats of 'Oriental Yuhong', 'Qingchun Road' sold more than 5000 million chips.
For the check from 'Quantong Education', 'Jinling Road' bought more than 1500 million, ranking first on the buying list.
As for the stocks of 'Shouchuang Group', 'Huaxin Cement' and 'Beijiang Communications Construction', there were both buying and selling of hot money on the Dragon and Tiger List trading seats, basically showing a balanced buying and selling situation.
However, Yingjia Gongjiu, which was listed today with a negative limit-down trend, showed a situation where the main funds of several institutions had sold all of them.
"It's exactly what I expected." After reading the performance of the Dragon and Tiger List data of the two cities, Xu Qiao laughed and said, "On the 'Oriental Yuhong' check, Mr. Su's 'Fuxing Road' and several institutional seats that intervened before are still in a locked position. Looking at the situation today, the 'Qingchun Road' that intervened the day before yesterday fell a little, 'Jinling Road' fell a little, and 'Fushan Series' also fell a little. But in terms of buying, 'Laodong Road' increased its position at a high level and bought a lot. As far as the violent fluctuations of 'Oriental Yuhong' today are concerned, this Dragon and Tiger List data... should we say that it is still slightly beyond expectations?"
"Not a single institution left, which is slightly beyond our expectations," said Old Wu. "Looking at the buying and selling on the list, the check from Oriental Yuhong today feels like it was sent down by Qingchun Road."
Lao Zhang responded: "For the 'Qingchun Road' wave, more than 2000 million yuan was invested, and nearly million yuan was earned in two days. There is no reason not to stop profit at this position. Therefore, today'Qingchun Road's reduction of positions and profit-taking are still basically within expectations. However, the purchase of the 'Quantong Education' check is a little lower than expected. Except for 'Jinling Road', the other three seats have concentrated retail investors."
"The Dragon and Tiger List data for the Quantong Education check today is indeed somewhat lower than expected." Xu Qiao said, "And based on the Dragon and Tiger List trading data, it seems that it will be difficult for this check to be sustainable tomorrow. On the contrary, the trend of the Oriental Yuhong check tomorrow should not be pessimistic."
"Did no one notice the check for 'Yingjia Gongjiu'?" Old Wu paused and continued, "Although this stock hit the limit down today due to the negative news, the main funds of several major institutions have all cut their positions. This also indirectly shows that the main institutional funds that previously held together the 'white wine' sector are indeed generally reducing their positions to stop profits and gradually reducing their positions, right? It also indirectly shows that in terms of the main weight line direction, it feels that the internal chip structure is indeed gradually loosening."
"Yes, this check is indeed worth noting today." Brother Chen also said at this time, "The loosening of the internal chips on the weighted main line should be relatively certain. In recent times, the trend of the weighted main line sectors such as liquor, white appliances, medicine, consumption, electricity, and finance is unlikely to increase much."
"The loosening of the internal chips of these weighted main lines should be a good thing for the other major main lines of the entire market..." Xu Qiao paused and continued, "Isn't it?"
"I think it's a good thing," said Lao Wu. "At least the liquidity of these main-line stocks has been released, which has given other main-line stocks in the market, especially small-cap and micro-cap stocks, a break, and also made the short-term market generally easier to trade."
"That's true." Lao Zhang nodded and said, "It is indeed obvious that the market conditions have been warming up in recent days. Short-term trading is indeed easier to do than before. Even if it is a short-term chase, the intraday buying point is not so accurate. As long as you have a little more patience, you can basically find an opportunity to exit the next day."
"However, it is hard for the main funds from the main weight line to be transferred to small and micro-cap stocks, right?" Xu Qiao said, "It seems that the probability of entering the 'big infrastructure' line is higher."
"I think so too," said Old Wu. "So in terms of overall strategy, even if you want to do short-term trading, you still have to focus on the 'big infrastructure' line."
Along with the main hot money group of 'Magic City Super Short Gang', these core main hot money investors interpreted the market Dragon and Tiger List data.
At this moment, the entire network's stock investment exchange platform is where countless retail investors gather.
After seeing the Dragon and Tiger List data disclosed by the two markets, many people's original bullish sentiment on the market's "oversold rebound" has also undergone some changes.
"Why do I feel that the small and medium-sized stocks on the 'oversold rebound' line on the list today do not have strong buying power from big funds?"
Noting the buying and selling conditions of each stock on the Dragon and Tiger lists of the two markets, some people couldn't help but sigh.
"That's right. For the core leading stock of 'Quantong Education', the number one investor bought less than 2000 million shares, and the rest were basically bought by retail investors."
"There really aren't many big funds participating in the 'oversold rebound' line."
"What are you afraid of? In the early stage of the market explosion, big funds will not intervene too actively. Look at the time when the 'big infrastructure' line rebounded rapidly from the bottom. At that time, the intervention of major funds was not particularly strong, and didn't everyone regard it as an oversold rebound? Who knew that the 'big infrastructure' line would continue to rebound all the way and completely reverse the trend?"
"How can they be the same? There is a fundamental difference between the two in terms of underlying logic."
"I don't think there is much difference. The current mobile Internet market is not saturated, right? And with the support of 5G in the future, there is still huge room for industry expansion and imagination!"
"But the uncertainty is also quite high, compared with the 'big infrastructure' line."
"That's right. If it weren't for this, would the share prices of these stocks be as cheap as they are now?"
"The main funds are not involved strongly. It seems that whether it can be sustained depends on the trend of the 'oversold rebound' line tomorrow morning. If the market opens early tomorrow morning, on the 'oversold rebound' line today, the leading funds that have blocked the daily limit can have a large premium space, and a few checks can quickly block the daily limit after the opening, further opening up the space to stimulate emotions, then there is a high probability that it will be sustained. If the space cannot be further opened, and it opens high like today's 'big infrastructure' main line, and quickly sells off, then... this line is likely to be the same as before, and it will be difficult to get out, and naturally it will lose the meaning of continuing to take over."
"I don't quite understand. Shouldn't we be optimistic about the check from Quantong Education and the data on the Dragon and Tiger List? Shouldn't this be called a joint effort of funds?"
"The bottom has just started, and it is definitely necessary for the main funds to intervene as deeply as possible. If the main funds only intervene with a small position, then the willingness to continue to control the market and pull it up will not be very strong. Retail investors often follow their emotions, and it is difficult to form a joint force on the market. Therefore, if the main funds are not deeply involved in the initial launch, the uncertainty of the trend will appear to be relatively high, that is, further trends and capital buying are needed to confirm the buying point." "I don't think it's a big problem. Today's check has such a beautiful trend. There is no reason why there is no room for it. Moreover, this position... is really low!"
"I am not very optimistic about the 'Quantong Education' check, but the Dragon and Tiger List trading data of the 'Oriental Yuhong' check today is a bit beyond expectations. Even the 'Qingchun Road' that was dumping the market has not been sold out today, and still has half of the chips left. As for other institutional capital groups, they have not sold a single chip. In addition, the selling positions, whether it is 'Jinling Road' or 'Lujing Road', the selling amount is not large. In addition, 'Laodong Road' has intervened. I feel that although the trend of this check is extremely volatile today, the buying order on the market is also quite good!"
“The list is indeed good, but the candlestick pattern is ugly!”
"If the Oriental Yuhong stock opens low and ends high tomorrow, and continues to break through a new high with a big positive line, then the K-line pattern will not be bad. Not only will it not be bad, but today's line is very likely to form the so-called immortal's guidance pattern."
"There is a chance of this happening, but it's not very likely."
"Anyway, I think tomorrow's market trend is likely to be between the 'big infrastructure' line and the 'oversold rebound' line. The main weighted sectors such as liquor, white appliances, medicine, consumption, electricity, and finance are undergoing severe adjustments. It is likely that they will continue to adjust tomorrow, right?"
"I am not optimistic about the weighting line either. I feel that the rise of bank stocks has reached its limit."
“But if the weight line doesn’t go well, will the index be good?”
"Although the probability of the weight line continuing to rise sharply is not high, it will not continue to fall. I feel that the probability of sideways movement is higher."
"It's good as long as it can stay sideways. The sideways movement of heavyweight stocks is the best trend for the current market."
"I think so too. As long as the weight does not fall and small tickets are allowed to play a leading role, the market's money-making effect and emotional feedback will form a continuous positive cycle."
"Yes, as long as a virtuous cycle is formed, it will be just around the corner for the index to break through 3000 points."
"It seems that the bottoms of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange Index, the ChiNext Index, the China Securities 500 Index and the All-China Securities 1000 Index have just emerged."
"Yes, judging from the K-line patterns of the major indexes, the market in the second half of the year should be good."
"We dug such a big hole at the beginning of the year, it's time to fill it up."
"Let's talk about it after it reaches 3000 points. If the Shanghai Composite Index doesn't reach 3000 points, it will be really difficult to attract off-market capital groups to enter!"
"The 3000-point level is only about a 2% increase from now, which feels like it will only take a day or two."
"Haha, I thought so before, but in the end... I couldn't climb up even after a month of shaking."
"Even if you look at it too much, this position is still dangerous!"
"How can everyone be bullish? Weren't you just bearish? In fact, at this position, any move seems to be fine."
"Even if there is huge pressure at 3000 points, it should be able to hold, right? There is no reason, and no reason to push it down further. Moreover, the structure of chips in this range has basically been adjusted, and the short-selling power to smash the market is not strong."
"Just take one step at a time. There's no point in thinking too far ahead."
"Yes, tomorrow we will see how the three core leading stocks, Oriental Yuhong, Quantong Education, and Beijing Capital Group, perform, and we will be able to judge the market trend with a high probability."
"I feel that the Oriental Yuhong stock is probably not dead and will not continue to fall sharply."
"At present, it feels like there is a bit of competition between the main line of 'big infrastructure' and the line of 'oversold rebound'. It seems that only one of the two main lines can come out!"
"That's not the case. If the weights remain sideways and liquidity can be continuously released, then I believe that both the 'big infrastructure' main line and the 'oversold rebound' line will have opportunities. The two are currently in a competitive relationship, and that's not because of the current lack of market liquidity. If many funds want to buy the core stocks of the 'big infrastructure' main line, they have to sell other stocks. Similarly... many funds want to hype the 'oversold rebound' line, so they have to sell stocks of other main lines. If the market liquidity can be a little more abundant, there will be no situation where the market can only rotate and cannot dance together."
"If we want to significantly improve the liquidity in the market, we have to attract external funds!"
"Without sufficient money-making effect, how can off-market funds have the motivation to enter the market?"
Amidst the heated discussions and exchanges among many retail investors, the differences between bulls and bears on the subsequent market trends became significantly larger after the release of the Dragon and Tiger List of the two markets, compared to the late trading stage and just after the closing.
However, having differences is actually a good thing.
The most important thing to fear in everything is consistency in expectations, and the most important thing to fear is that everyone is focused on being bullish or bearish.
After all, only when there are differences will there be continuous acceptance and selling, so as not to cause excessive selling pressure on the corresponding main sectors and missing out on buying.
It was under the brewing of this mixed sentiment of bulls and bears.
In the evening, favorable fundamentals and news about the main theme of "big infrastructure" continued to come one after another. At the same time, the U.S. stocks in the peripheral market continued to open high and continue to rise, setting a new historical high, which continues to set expectations for tomorrow's market trend.
Then, when the next day came, Wednesday, October 8th.
Compared with last night, the pre-market sentiment has clearly warmed up further.
However, there is a precedent of yesterday's high sentiment before the market opened, and then a sharp sell-off at the opening, so although the market sentiment is good today, most of the main funds, especially the main short-term funds active in the market, are still cautious about the trend at the beginning of the market. (End of this chapter)
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