Rebirth of the Capital Legend
Chapter 523 Short-term trading logic!
"It would be great if we really follow what you said, Lao Liao." Li Jinshi laughed, "But before the market really comes out, everything is still uncertain. No matter how good everyone's expectations are, it will be useless if the market's actual trend feedback is not good.
Before the market opened today, were the market's expectations for the 'emerging industrial chain' line good enough?
But what happened...
Looking at the whole day, the core sectors related to the main line of 'emerging industrial chain', which has clear policy support, such as film and television media, Internet software, Internet applications, and electronic information, have become the weakest and most obvious main line sectors in today's market performance, with the most obvious loss effect.
On the contrary, the heavyweight main-line sectors that almost no one was optimistic about before the market opened, such as liquor, white appliances, medicine, electricity, finance, etc., performed quite well today and became the main areas where bulls gathered in today's market trend, supporting the index and the bullish sentiment of the entire market.
Of course, the trend of the "big infrastructure" line today is somewhat beyond expectations.
In short, what I want to express is that it is often difficult to achieve the expected results that the market consensus expects. When there are differences, or when the majority of retail investors are pessimistic, it is possible to achieve a market that exceeds expectations.
How will the market perform tomorrow? Will it continue to break upward and further establish a breakthrough trend?
We still have to wait until the market opens tomorrow to see the exact sentiment feedback before we can be sure. It’s still a bit too early to judge now.”
"That's right." Chen Guiyun nodded in response. "In the market trend, emotional expectations are one thing, and the actual exact trend is another. However, if the market sentiment is better, funds will be more enthusiastic about going long, and investor confidence will recover. This will ultimately be helpful for the future market development and the entry of hesitant funds from the outside market into the market."
"It's not just about emotions..." Liao Guoxiang took over the conversation at this time and continued, "In the recent market rebound, the volume feedback is also very good. Today, the market has increased in volume during the two divergence stages, which shows that there are indeed many hesitant funds outside the market who are taking over the market to do more.
That is to say, the internal chip structure, at this position, is fed back through continuous volume.
It is indeed being readjusted and re-condensed.
The profit-taking orders that had accumulated in the previous period, as well as the historical trapped orders, were indeed being continuously resolved by the buying orders under this kind of volume feedback.
In other words, the selling pressure from above is indeed weakening.
As long as the selling pressure from above continues to weaken, then the market sentiment and confidence will begin to improve significantly.
In fact, the index is likely to move in the only direction, which is upward.
Because at the current position, the only resistance is upward, which is relatively small.”
"Is it possible that the Shanghai Composite Index will remain sideways around 3000 points?" Chen Guiyun pondered for a while and raised the question, "After all, there are many historical locked-in shares around 3000 points. It is difficult to resolve them in just a few days just by relying on the fluctuations of a few trading days and the performance of these tens of billions of new incremental energy. Moreover, at the macro level... Although the fundamentals of the main line of 'big infrastructure' have reversed.
At the same time, the fundamentals of the weighty main-line sectors such as liquor, white goods, electricity, and petrochemicals are also improving.
But in terms of macro liquidity.
As the Federal Reserve gradually enters a cycle of interest rate hikes, the central bank does not have many cards to play. That is to say, in the short term, or even in the medium to long term, it is basically impossible to further release liquidity at the macro level and create the loose and abundant situation of the previous bull market on the capital side.
What's more, there are real estates off-market that are constantly siphoning liquidity.
In this case, if there is no significant improvement in overall macro liquidity, the funds that can continue to flow into the stock market should still be relatively limited.
This means that a short-term rebound can be expected.
However, it is probably quite difficult to truly reverse the trend. After all, the stock market is greatly affected by emotions and news.
But in the end, what can really support the market going forward is real money investment.”
"What you said... does not rule out this possibility." Liao Guoxiang said, "But judging from the current market volume and sentiment feedback, at this point in time, this wave of market rebound is definitely not over. Even if there is no long-term trend in the future, it still cannot change the bear market situation.
That will not affect the current index's position, and it will continue to have a certain amount of room to move upward.
In other words, even if it adjusts, it will return to the oscillation range below 3000, or oscillate around 3000 points for a long time.
That's what happened later.
However, our trading style and trading ideas are very different from those of institutions.
Institutions need to consider fundamental issues, focus on the macro side, and consider long-term trend developments, but we... only need to look at the market cycle of the last week or at most half a month.
As long as the market can maintain a relatively active trend, there will always be local market trends.
As long as we don’t return to the previous extreme trend of continuous shrinking volume and continuous decline, then... we will be able to find trading opportunities on the market.
So, I think it doesn’t make much sense to discuss the long-term trend.
As long as the market continues to improve in the short term and there is a profit effect, that will be enough.”
"Haha... Mr. Liao is right." Li Jinshi laughed and said, "The longest period of holding a stock I have ever held is no more than one month. The long-term trend and direction of development are things that the major institutions with large funds that are too large to enter and exit should consider.
As for us, as long as the market sentiment is relatively good, there will be a sustained local profit-making effect.
Then we just need to focus on the market hot spots and the core hot stocks in the market, and as for the rest... there is really no need to think too much about it. "
Following the ongoing discussion among several core major speculators within the 'Fushan Group' of major speculators.
At this time, the market trading time has passed 2:50 and entered the final ten-minute trading period.
The market entered the last ten minutes of trading.
Whether it is the major indexes, or the number of popular stocks in the market, the corresponding core main sectors, and their sector indexes, they are all accelerating upward.
The Shanghai Composite Index even broke through 3035 points at one point.
Finally, when 3 o'clock in the afternoon arrived and the two markets closed, the Shanghai Composite Index was set at 3031.23 points, up nearly 1%, while the Shenzhen Composite Index and the ChiNext Index maintained a slightly positive trend.
Among them, the A50 index rose 1.29%, leading the core indexes of the two markets.
The CSI 500 Index and the ZSE 1000 Index closed up 0.12% and 0.09% respectively, ranking the weakest among the core indices of the two markets.
As for the performance of the major core lines of the market...
In the weighted main-line areas, liquor, electricity, white goods, petrochemicals, and financial sectors maintained their leading trend. Among them, the 'liquor' sector index closed up 2.23%.
It is located behind the main line of weight.
The main line of "big infrastructure" has experienced great fluctuations during the day, and the divergence has turned to consensus again. Today, the core main line of "big infrastructure", related real estate, building decoration, building materials, nonferrous metals, steel, coal and other industry indexes, have experienced twists and turns, two extreme dives, and two shock rebounds. In the end, although these related industry sector indexes did not return to the market-leading position, they all closed up by more than 1%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index.
The main area of 'emerging industrial chain' was unanimously favored by most investors before the market opened today, and also performed quite strongly in the opening call auction stage.
Related industry sectors such as film and television media, Internet software, Internet applications, and electronic information.
Although there was a sharp rebound in the late trading.
But overall, it is still the main line in the two markets today that performed seriously weaker than the index, and it is also the main line area in the entire market where the losing effect is more obvious.
In the final closing results.
The four major sectors, film and television media, Internet software, Internet applications, and electronic information, all closed with a slight decline.
Although the four major sector indexes did not fall much, they still fell by more than one point compared with their opening positions today, burying a lot of long funds that chased highs in today's early trading session.
In particular, the 'film and television media' sector has a strong correlation with the trend of the 'online education' concept sector.
This sector eventually closed down by 0.63%, leading the decline in both markets and becoming the main sector where popular stocks fell sharply today.
Faced with the closing situation of the two cities...
The group of retail investors gathered on the stock investment exchange platform across the entire network are somewhat saddened.
Many people even feel like they have survived a disaster.
After all, the two extreme dives during the trading session still looked very scary under the circumstances at the time.
"Huh... It's finally closed. Watching the market today was really tiring. Whether it was the index, the corresponding main industry sectors, or the popular leading stocks, the trends were all quite confusing. However, as for the closing results... it finally didn't disappoint. The Shanghai Composite Index almost closed at the highest point of the day, and broke yesterday's intraday high, forming a rebound trend for the sell-off at the end of yesterday's trading. According to this pattern and trend, the market outlook is promising!"
Among the many retail investors who discussed the matter, one who withstood today’s violent market fluctuations expressed his feelings.
"Isn't it? Today's trend is really scary. The two dives during the trading session seem like something that most people can't handle!"
"Ah, isn't that me? Not to mention the plunge in the afternoon, I couldn't handle the plunge in the morning and closed all my positions at the lowest point."
"I sold in the panic in the afternoon and regretted it immediately. Unfortunately, I hesitated at the end of the trading day and didn't buy it back."
"Before the midday closing, I saw the market picking up again and couldn't help but increase my position. When the market just opened in the afternoon, I was really happy for a while, but I didn't expect it to plunge wildly in an instant. I lost 3 points during the session. Fortunately, the market went up all the way at the end of the session and rose again. I made a slight profit of 1 point at the close. Today's market trend is really a test of my heart. If I can't sell today if I buy today, I don't think I can withstand the trend of explosive volume and rapid plunge in the afternoon."
"Oh, damn... I bought it when the market opened in the morning, and I bought the 'Huawen Online' check. I bought it at the upper limit price, but I was buried in less than a minute after I bought it. The violent fluctuations throughout the day did not recover it. I guess it will be difficult to buy this check tomorrow."
"This check from 'Chinese Online' gives me hope!"
"This afternoon, there was still some funding to ignite the check for 'Huawen Online', but unfortunately it was not able to be pulled up. If the intraday wave could be pulled up to the daily limit, this check would have gone awry."
"Under normal trend today, this check should have reached the daily limit. It's simply because the entire 'online education' sector is too weak. In addition, the 'Quantong Education' check has brought down the entire concept sector, causing all the short-term profit-making funds that intervened earlier to follow suit and dump the market."
"Today's 'online education' concept is really a scam."
"It's not just the 'online education' concept sector, right? I feel like the entire 'emerging industry chain' main line is pretty bad today. The 'big infrastructure' line is still stable. 'Oriental Yuhong', the core leading stock, is really strong. If I had known earlier... I should have chased 'Oriental Yuhong'."
"Yes, I watched the price of the Oriental Yuhong check go up all the way, but I just didn't dare to buy it. However, the more I didn't dare to buy it, the more it went up!"
"So, when buying stocks, you still have to buy the most core leading stocks."
"It's a pity that the check of 'Oriental Yuhong' was still close at the closing and failed to close at the daily limit."
"This check has hit the daily limit a few times, but does it affect its continued rise? I feel that this check is following a strong trend, not a continuous limit trend at all."
"No matter what the trend is, it will not affect the leading position of 'Oriental Yuhong'."
"That's right. Today's market was able to reverse again at the end of the trading day. It should be said that... it was all driven by the core leading stock 'Oriental Yuhong', right?"
"Today, the 'big infrastructure' line really depends entirely on the check from 'Oriental Yuhong'."
"It's a pity that I can't see the Dragon and Tiger list data for the check 'Oriental Yuhong' today. I don't know which funds are selling this check due to the big intraday divergence today?"
"Anyway, it definitely won't be Mr. Su's 'Fuxing Road'."
"The stock price of 'Capital Group' was quite strong today, fluctuating back and forth on the limit down board. In the late trading stage, it even pulled back more than ten points from the lowest point in the trading session and closed in the red."
"Yeah, if I had known, I should have copied the bottom of this check."
"The strong will always be strong. I originally thought that the 'big infrastructure' line had risen too much recently. After the rotation of the 'emerging industrial chain' line, it must be safer. I didn't expect it..."
"Indeed, the line of 'emerging industrial chain' is really a hopeless case. How can such a big positive development lead to such a situation?"
"We still have to wait and see what the trend is tomorrow. Didn't the 'big infrastructure' line plunge wildly at the end of yesterday's trading? Didn't it also rebound today? It seems that... the 'emerging industrial chain' line is clearing out profit-taking today. Maybe this line will also rebound tomorrow?"
"Let's hope so. Otherwise, we'll be stuck. And I don't believe it... This line hasn't risen much to begin with. How low can it fall?"
"Let's take a look at the Dragon and Tiger List first to see if the main funds that were gathered there have left?"
Amid the continuous discussions of many retail investors, time in the market passed quickly. Soon, at 5 o'clock in the afternoon, the Dragon and Tiger List of the two cities was refreshed.
Just see everyone's attention.
Many popular stocks in the main area of 'big infrastructure' and many popular stocks in the main area of 'emerging industrial chains' are on the list.
And based on the buying and selling data of these popular stocks.
It can be seen that hot money flows in and out frequently, with signs of large-scale selling as well as large-scale increased buying.
In short, whether it is the retail investor group or the hot money group, there are huge buying and selling differences in the performance of today's hot stocks. (End of this chapter)
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