Rebirth of the Capital Legend

Hearing Yu Xiaolu's words, Lu Xiangxiang, who was also staring at the changes in the two markets, pondered for a moment and responded: "The active liquidity groups in the two markets are indeed rapidly concentrating on the main line of the 'emerging industrial chain', that is, the GEM and small and medium-sized stocks. At the same time, the heat of emotions is also concentrated in these areas.

But we have to say that the overall investment trend of the market has changed, and the expectations of the weighted main line and the major infrastructure main line have been fulfilled.

I still don’t think so.

Moreover, starting from the analysis of the fundamentals, the fundamentals of the "big infrastructure" line are still developing in a positive direction, and the offline real estate market and housing prices show no signs of stopping, and housing prices in various places are still continuing to rise.

At the same time, the chip structure in these two main areas does not seem to have loosened significantly.

The reason why the current market hot spots are temporarily concentrated on the SME Board and the ChiNext is that it seems that overnight, we have returned to the time when the bull market hyped concepts last year.

I think the main reason is that the current stocks related to the SME Board and GEM are at a low position.

Compared to the historical highs reached last year, many stocks appear to be relatively oversold.

This oversold state, which was previously in an obvious and continuous downward trend in the market and in an environment where overall market liquidity continued to shrink, naturally had little appeal to many active speculative funds in the market, and was difficult to resonate with various speculative short-term fund groups.

But now, when the market is led by the main line of "big infrastructure" and previous weighty sectors such as medicine, liquor, electricity, and finance.

It has initially emerged from the obvious bottom characteristics and crossed the 3000-point pressure level.

Then, these small and medium-sized board and GEM concept stocks that are still in an oversold state will have obvious advantages in terms of high and low positions.

Meanwhile, recent news...

It seems that policies are also reiterating the concepts of entrepreneurship and innovation.

In terms of financial policies, major banks are also required to tilt their loan preferential policies towards small and micro enterprises.

Therefore, this short-lived hype trend naturally spread.

However, there is no long-term fundamental logic support, no expected logical reversal from industry fundamentals, and no long-term expected guidance for performance explosion.

The share prices of these so-called growth concept stocks are showing a clear reversal trend.

At the same time, it seems unlikely to attract a large amount of investment funds from inside and outside the market, rather than a market dominated by speculative funds.

When there is no long-term investment funds to help lock in positions and no consensus expectations for long-term investment funds are formed.

The upsurge of short-term funds cannot release the historical locked-in shares deposited in these stocks in large quantities. There is a high probability that... after these stocks rebound briefly and quickly, when they begin to touch the areas where the previous historical locked-in shares are concentrated, these current speculative fund groups will most likely take profits and run away, and sell off their chips again on a large scale.

By then, the investment direction of the market will most likely return to the main line of "big infrastructure" where the main institutional funds are gathered, as well as the main weighted areas such as liquor, white goods, medicine, consumption, electricity, finance, petrochemicals, etc. where the fundamentals of the industry have shown a clear reversal.

In fact, the focus of our institutional investment is not short-term speculation.

In this market, long-term funds and short-term funds have significantly different investment styles.

We can't have this, this, and this.

We must learn to decisively give up some of the money in the market and some seemingly good opportunities. The current hype trend towards the GEM and SME boards seems to be sustainable and the emotional performance is also strong. However, we must understand that this is a rootless trend and a pure financial speculation behavior without any core logic support.

As this sentiment gradually faded, the enthusiasm of the subsequent group of follow-up funds began to wane.

Then, this wave will also decline quite violently.

At that time, these seemingly prosperous scenes, these popular concept stocks that are hyped by a large number of short-term capital groups, will most likely return to where they came from.

We must learn to reject some temptations in the market and see through the phenomena to grasp the essential logic.

As long as there is no problem with the fundamental logic of the "big infrastructure" line, the core logic supporting the stock has not changed and is still continuing to strengthen, then we cannot easily adjust our positions, and we cannot chase hot spots in the market because of some changes in emotions.

Judging from the current trends of many core hot stocks in the "big infrastructure" line and the industry's leading stocks.

In recent days, as a number of concept stocks on the ChiNext and SME boards have siphoned off active capital liquidity in the market, these individual stocks have indeed shown a more obvious adjustment trend.

However, judging from the volume situation, these stocks have not shown a trend of large-scale and sustained volume adjustment at the top.

In other words, many large funds that had previously invested in these stocks have not yet clearly left the market and are still in a locked-up state. Otherwise, the volume situation would not be what it is today.

in my opinion……

Regarding the "big infrastructure" line, the sentiment has just receded slightly at the moment.

Moreover, I don’t think it’s a bad thing that this emotion is receding.

From a macro perspective, this round of "big infrastructure" main line market is a big market that may last for one or two years, or even two or three years.

In a large market cycle with such a long time span.

The emotional impact is actually not that important.

Moreover, the continued overheated emotions will instead overdraw the bullish power of the entire main line, causing excessive impact on the subsequent long-term trend.

At the same time, the continued overheated sentiment will also excessively raise the market's future expectations for the main line of "big infrastructure."

Once future expectations are overly raised, the valuation increase gradually reflected in performance may find it difficult to form an unexpected stock price increase.

So, let the emotions ebb a little bit, and let the overall main line of emotions cool down a little bit.

This has led to some divergence between bulls and bears on the entire "big infrastructure" main line at this stage.

On the contrary, it is more conducive to the benign exchange of internal chips of the entire main line, and to re-condense the subsequent potential bullish force. At the same time, it also allows some unsteady chips that intervened in the early stage to get the opportunity to safely take profits and exit.

That is to say, at this stage... I am not only not bearish on the "big infrastructure" line, but I am even more optimistic about it. "

Yu Xiaolu listened to Lu Xiangxiang's confident analysis, pondered it carefully for a while, and expressed her agreement with Lu Xiangxiang's analysis and said with a smile: "Mr. Lu still sees it clearly. Indeed, the current sustained rebound in the GEM and SME boards does look like a concentrated speculation by active speculative funds in the market, like a general rebound in oversold stocks after the market broke through 3000 points and stabilized.

According to past market trends, this is an oversold rebound.

Although the outbreak is very violent, its sustainability is still relatively low.

However, it seems that the overall market volume has been increasing recently. Doesn’t this mean that as the overall market continues to recover, the incremental funds from the OTC market are gradually entering the market? "

Lu Xiangxiang compared the overall market performance in the past two days and said: "The overall market performance is indeed slightly increasing. Judging from the recent market trends, some aggressive funds in the OTC fund group can't help but start to enter the market to do more, which is normal. After all, although the market has changed rapidly recently, it has always maintained a relatively good profit effect."

"Yes, that's right." Yu Xiaolu said, "As the saying goes, where there is volume, there is a market. As long as the off-market capital groups begin to enter the market, we will be more confident about the subsequent market trends."

"But according to the macro-level financial policies..." Lu Xiangxiang said, "and the still hot offline real estate market, we still can't expect too much new off-site funds to intervene. After all, the liquidity of the entire society is very limited, and the amount that can be biased towards the stock market is very limited."

"My requirements are not high," Yu Xiaolu said. "It would be enough if the two markets can maintain a turnover of 5000 billion."

"A transaction volume of 5000 billion yuan shouldn't be very difficult." Lu Xiangxiang said, "Looking at the situation, the current property market is showing signs of being overheated. I estimate that if house prices continue to rise, policies should intervene a bit, and then... more funds should be guided into the stock market."

"I think the current market situation can be compared with the trend in 09," said Yu Xiaolu. "After the market experienced a round of bear market in 08, the stimulus of various policies in 09 and the rebound demand of the market itself led to the index doubling from 1600 points.

I think now I see...

The major A-share indices have just completed a year of rapid bear market trends and have found the bottom of the bear market.

In the next six months, or in the next year, it is unlikely that the overall index will continue to fall, or that the previous downward trend will continue.

In terms of the overall investment environment, the next year should be much better than the previous year.”

"Well, judging from the K-line trend of the index and the trend of the main stocks in the market, the overall market environment is indeed a bit like 09." Lu Xiangxiang said, "Moreover, I think the overall market situation is even better than 09.

The real estate market was also booming in 09. I remember that housing prices in most cities doubled that year.

But the current situation of the real estate market, whether it is the scale effect or the concentration effect of the capital group, is more prosperous than before.

Logically speaking, the recovery of the "big infrastructure" line and the entire real estate industry chain should be more vigorous than before.

As for the concept of "emerging industrial chain", there is indeed no sign of industry recovery at present.

In the field of mobile Internet and smart phone industry chain, with the end of the wave of phone replacement, the entire market has begun to show signs of saturation.

Even though the industry has not yet reached saturation.

There is not much room left for explosion.

Instead, it is the line of 'new energy industry chain'..."

At this point, Lu Xiangxiang paused for a moment before continuing, "From the perspective of long-term macroeconomic development in the future, I still believe that the 'new energy industry chain' line is correct. The entire industry chain has not yet entered the stage of expected fulfillment, and the entire industry chain has just started. There is still a lot of room for the future, but the stock price performance is a bit disappointing!"

"From a macro perspective, the future prospects of the 'new energy industry chain' are indeed very good," said Yu Xiaolu. "There are only a few companies in the entire industry chain that truly have core technological advantages. The vast majority of companies in the industry are supported by government subsidies.

If investment institutions in the entire market have already anticipated that relevant national subsidies will decline next year.

Then, the line from expectations to performance will not be smooth.

I think that if the 'new energy industry chain' line wants to truly gain the recognition of many investment institutions in the market and make the various large capital groups in the market form the current consistent expectations and cognition of the 'big infrastructure' main line, the core leading stocks within the industry must actually improve their performance to fulfill expectations.

Only when the logic of fulfillment from industry explosion expectations to performance explosion is smooth, will there be sustained valuation enhancement speculation opportunities and industrial main line investment opportunities.

Otherwise, it would be just like last year's bull market, when a large amount of funds were speculating on many stocks on the GEM and SME boards.

In the end, it will all be castles in the air.”

"Yes, you are right." Lu Xiangxiang nodded and said, "We did not pay attention to this logical relationship before, so we suffered such a huge loss on the 'new energy industry chain' line. Now it seems... the 'new energy industry chain' line really needs the verification of explosive performance to establish its basic logic. Only when the underlying logic is smooth can we truly create sustainable main investment opportunities. At present, our focus is still on the core main line of 'big infrastructure', which is more stable."

The fund products they currently manage have already made considerable floating profits on the core theme of "big infrastructure".

According to her previous operating style.

When there is a relatively large floating profit, she will definitely start to take profits, build positions, and adjust positions.

But after experiencing the previous market trends of the main line of the "new energy industry chain", especially after carefully studying the operating style of the institution "Huayi Capital".

Her investment determination has now become much stronger than before, and her positions will not be easily shaken.

As the two analyzed the market trends and reviewed the holdings of the fund products they managed, the market trading time had already entered after 1:.

After half an hour of intense trading.

The intraday trading volume of the two cities began to trend slowly. The intraday trends and volume performance of major hot stocks and core leading stocks in major industries were not as intense as in the early afternoon trading.

However, the trend has slowed down.

However, the core sentiment of the market and the focus of various follow-up capital groups are still on the core sectors of film and television media, Internet software, Internet applications, as well as the GEM and SME boards. In terms of the overall market trend, the performance of small and medium-sized stocks and micro-cap stocks is still significantly stronger than that of market-weighted blue-chip stocks and white horse performance stocks.

However, while this hot style continues...

The agriculture and animal husbandry sectors, which few people paid attention to, suddenly began to move. (End of this chapter)