Rebirth of the Capital Legend

"Based on the sentiment before the market opens, I guess the market will most likely open higher again today, right?" Noting the sentiment before the market opens in both cities, Lao Zhang, one of the main speculators of the 'Magic City Ultra Short Gang', said, "In the U.S. stock market trend last night, the performance of several major technology giants was very good. It feels like the market is indeed switching to the main direction of the 'emerging industrial chain'. With the stimulation of the external market and the original hot sentiment, it feels like today's market trend will most likely continue yesterday's market trend in the hot main direction. It is estimated that the 'Chinese Online' check will most likely follow the accelerated form of shrinking volume with a daily limit. The core industry sectors of film and television media, Internet software, Internet applications, and electronic information, and their corresponding hot concept stocks, should still have a hot opening sentiment, and there will be no lack of aggressive buying power.

As for whether this fiery sentiment can be stabilized after the opening, and whether the main line of the entire "emerging industrial chain" can continue to perform beyond-expectation market trends and money-making effects under the high expectations, it probably depends on how many off-market follow-up fund groups intervene, as well as the core of "big infrastructure", and the weighted main lines of the main board fields such as liquor, white appliances, medicine, consumption, electricity, and finance, and how many institutional main funds are willing to adjust their positions at this position.

If the opening volume can be maintained strongly.

The off-market follow-up long funds and some institutional main fund groups that have adjusted their portfolios in the direction of the main weight line of the main board can take over the selling orders made from the previous speculation and profit. Then I think the core line of "emerging industrial chain" will most likely continue to open high and close high.

After all, compared with the previous increase in the main line of "big infrastructure".

As well as the rebound of the main board's weighted main sectors such as liquor, white appliances, medicine, electricity, and finance after the end of the previous rounds of stock market crashes.

Now the entire 'emerging industrial chain' main line area.

Film and television media, Internet software, Internet applications, electronic information... These related core industry sectors have relatively small room for rebound from the bottom. Even if it is an oversold rebound, there is still room for speculation upward. What's more, these major industry sectors currently have no shortage of favorable news and policies. It's just that the performance expectations in the fundamental direction are slightly worse than those of the main weight lines of the main board and the "big infrastructure" main line.

However, the certainty of achieving performance expectations is not very high, and the time span for actual realization is also relatively long.

In other words, changes in expectations for performance explosion.

This factor is not the most important factor for the short-term rise and fall of individual stock prices.

Therefore, on a comprehensive basis, I feel that the current rebound momentum of the main line of 'emerging industrial chain' has not yet been exhausted, and we can wait a little longer before realizing profits.

After all, it takes a process for emotions to go from high to low.

Just like the previous "big infrastructure" main line that came out of the bottom and then rebounded after a short squeeze, the trend changed slowly as the sentiment gradually receded during the adjustment phase.

There is also the current "emerging industrial chain" line, which has such strong emotional feedback.

So many groups of speculative funds are concentrated in it to make a profit.

Even if the sentiment drops and the upward momentum begins to weaken, it will not be a local peak trend, and there should still be sufficient time to take profits and exit the market.

What's more, as long as the check from 'Chinese Online' is in place, today's opening will continue to exceed expectations.

It can develop into a trend of shrinking volume and rising limit up.

Then, it will inevitably stimulate the emergence of some related concept stocks in the three core sectors of film and television media, Internet software, and Internet applications.

It will also further stimulate the short-term speculative funds in the market to aggressively chase high prices.

At the same time, the short-term speculation sentiment of the entire market and the risk appetite for short-term speculation will also rise.

This will increase the market's room for error.

So, no matter what, with such strong sentiment on the market, it is highly likely that today’s market conditions will not be that bad, no matter how bad they are.”

"I don't think so." After hearing Lao Zhang's analysis, Lao Wu took over and said, "From the perspective of volume performance, in fact, the group of short-term speculative funds currently concentrated on the 'emerging industrial chain' line has already covered most of the short-term speculative funds in the market.

That is to say, even if emotions can continue to ferment and spread.

In fact, there are not many short-term speculative funds in the market that can enter the "emerging industrial chain" line and take over at a high level.

And the group of on-the-spot funds that can be attracted...

As the off-market property market continues to be hot, I don’t think the current stock market can snatch liquidity from the property market.

Since the group of off-market followers that can be attracted is very limited.

Then, continuous growth becomes a false proposition.

In other words, judging from the current situation, the market will most likely remain in a stock game for a long time. At least at present, there is no sign of entering an incremental situation.

As long as the market is still in a capital environment of stock game.

Therefore, if the 'emerging industrial chain' line wants to continue to open up room for rebound, it needs to seize the liquidity of other core lines in the market.

Where is the liquidity of other core lines in the market currently concentrated?

Obviously, it is mainly concentrated in the "big infrastructure" main line, as well as the main weighted areas of liquor, white appliances, medicine, consumption, electricity, finance, etc. on the main board.

In other words, there is only the main area of ​​'big infrastructure'.

In addition, the main institutional capital groups that have locked positions in the weighty main-line fields such as liquor, white appliances, medicine, consumption, electricity, and finance have begun to adjust their positions on a large scale.

The chip structure of the entire market weight main line area and the "big infrastructure" main line area began to loosen.

Then, the 'emerging industrial chain' line will have the possibility to attract the capital liquidity on these main lines, and it will also be possible to move upward strongly under the current situation where the speculative profit-taking selling pressure is already considerable, just like the previous 'big infrastructure' main line, to create a higher rebound space and form a strong reversal expectation trend.

Otherwise, it will only rely on the current volume and speculative funds.

I think its sustainability is still questionable.

It is necessary to make the main institutional funds that are clustered in the main line of "big infrastructure" as well as the weighty main lines such as liquor, white appliances, medicine, electricity, consumption, and finance, abandon the original core main lines and the core holdings of the layout, and instead invest in the core main line of "emerging industrial chains".

In addition to emotional influences, fundamental stimulation is also needed.

Just like the previous trend of the main line of "big infrastructure", if there is no continued hot real estate market off-site and the support of continued high housing prices across the country, and no reversal of the fundamentals of the entire main-line related industrial chain and related industries, even with the guidance of "Huayi Capital" headed by the Su brothers, it is probably difficult to get out of the continued reversal trend and raise the Shanghai Composite Index above 3000 points.

But the current main direction of the 'emerging industrial chain'...

It seems that in addition to the related stocks of the "Apple industrial chain" and the "security lens" branch sector, other film and television media, Internet software, Internet applications, and semiconductor directions are all in the process of cyclical adjustments in industry fundamentals and are at the bottom of the industry cycle.

In other words, these major industry sectors, which are currently experiencing hot sentiment, seem to lack fundamental support.

There is a lack of certainty.

In the market environment of stock-stock game, the most important reference condition for most institutional main funds in the market when making their layout is certainty.

The lack of this important factor determines the majority of the main institutional funding groups.

Under the current uncertain expectations, investors are unlikely to be willing to make large-scale portfolio adjustments to the core sectors of the "emerging industrial chain."

At most, they will try a small position and hype it up a little bit according to emotions. However, emotional hype often comes and goes quickly, making it difficult for internal chips to truly settle down.

Therefore, I judge that the line of 'emerging industrial chain' has not yet become the ability to support the medium- and long-term market trends, nor has it become the main line that dominates the current market trends.

The potential for rebound and sustainability is likely to be far less than the previous ‘big infrastructure’ theme.”

"I agree with Old Wu." In the midst of the disagreement between the two, Xu Qiao briefly pondered, then took over Old Wu's words and continued, "In terms of underlying logic, the 'emerging industrial chain' line, several core sectors, and the corresponding related concept sectors are indeed a little worse. The market funds' long consistency for this main line and several related core sectors is also obviously weaker.

Despite the number of concept stocks in the core sectors of film and television media, Internet software, and Internet applications.

The rebound in recent days has been quite strong, with various active short-term funds and very aggressive speculation, and there has also been a lot of follow-up funds to take on the long positions.

However, from beginning to end, there were very few institutional seats involved in the speculation.

This also shows that at this stage, the main structural funds have not adjusted their positions in a large number beyond this direction.

This is completely different in nature from the funds when the main line of "big infrastructure" rebounded from the bottom.

I still remember that two months ago, the "Huayi Capital" institution headed by the Su brothers continued to increase its holdings of core leading stocks related to the "big infrastructure" main line and industry leading stocks on a large scale. Judging from the data of the Dragon and Tiger List of many related stocks from time to time, the main institutional funds have been continuously increasing their holdings.

In other words, this is where the main trend of "big infrastructure" broke out.

While many active short-term funds in the market have not reacted, institutional funds have already been quietly increasing their positions and buying into the long market.

And in the same period, in the Hong Kong stock market.

The corresponding 'real estate industry chain' industry sector, as well as the leading stocks in various industries, especially the trends of a number of 'domestic real estate stocks', have also experienced frequent abnormal changes.

Now……

In the Hong Kong stock market, as well as the trends of overseas US stocks.

Although some industry-leading stocks in the direction of "emerging industrial chains" have also seen some changes, their strength is obviously weaker than the original "big infrastructure" main line.

Therefore, the rebound trend of the 'emerging industrial chain' line.

At present, the certainty is indeed not sufficient, and the psychological expectations should not be too high.

I think it is better to regard it as a short-term emotional hype.

In addition, I always feel that on the main line of "emerging industrial chain", the major sectors of film and television media, Internet software, and Internet applications, which are currently hotly hyped, have not yet touched the areas with the heaviest historical locked-in shares. The potential selling pressure on the market is subconsciously ignored by the current market under the cover of hot emotions.

In fact, this position, or rather, is slightly upward.

Under the current overall market environment, the selling pressure is much greater than what is shown on the market.

It's just that the popularity of the money-making effect and the overly high emotions have obscured this current fact, giving aggressive long funds a feeling that the market is very light and that a trend can be continuously created by an active group of short-term followers.

This illusion induces...

Once the subsequent market sentiment declines, large quantities of historical trapped shares and short-term speculative profit-taking shares will be sold in a concentrated manner, forming a joint selling pressure on the market.

In a situation where there is no main institutional funds to help take over and lock the positions.

Its market trend, as well as the trend of corresponding hot concept stocks, are absolutely difficult to stabilize.

By then, there will be a very violent wave of adjustments, and there is a high probability that you will not be able to escape.

As long as the internal chips of the current "emerging industrial chain" line cannot settle, I believe that the chips will be dispersed again very quickly.

Regarding the current sentiment and the aggressive speculation attitude of various short-term funds.

I will definitely not continue to take over the line of 'emerging industrial chains', especially the concept stocks related to film and television media, Internet software, and Internet applications.

On the contrary, I feel that everyone now feels that expectations have begun to be fulfilled. The popular concept stocks related to the "big infrastructure" main line area with greater upward resistance to stock prices, as well as some industry leading heavyweight stocks, have shown a clear trend of not being able to fall, and it seems that the main institutional funds gathered in these stock areas are unwilling to take profits and reduce their positions to leave the market, even looking at the Dragon and Tiger list data of several core stocks in this main line.

It seems that institutional funds are still increasing their holdings at this position.

It is often difficult to generate excess returns in places where the market is too lively.

I think this is the same whether it is the previous main line of "big infrastructure" or the current main line of "emerging industrial chain".

A few days ago, when the sentiment for the main line of "big infrastructure" was the hottest, a lot of funds took over and went long.

The expected excess returns were not achieved.

Now, I believe that it will be difficult for many speculative short-term funds that aggressively take over the leading stocks of the main concept of the "emerging industrial chain" to reap the excess returns they expect in the future. It is very likely that... not only will there be no excess returns, but there will also be considerable unexpected losses. "

"Xiao Xu's analysis... is quite consistent with some of my thoughts." Brother Chen, who had been silent before, also took over at this time, "The sentiment on the 'emerging industrial chain' line is a bit overheated. Generally speaking, there is no change in the underlying logic, that is, there is no direct stimulation of performance explosion expectations, but only favorable news and policies. When the sentiment is overheated, a large number of retail investors in the market are optimistic about it, and a large number of short-term speculative funds have already concentrated on speculation, it is often a good selling point rather than a relay buying point.

In the financial market, there is a saying that is indeed the truth.

That is, buying at the divergence position and selling at the consensus position is usually correct.

Now the line of 'emerging industrial chain' has reached the point where expectations are consistent and sentiment is overheated. When a large number of retail investors participate in the market and a large number of short-term speculative funds have entered the market, the subsequent potential power to follow up on the long side often shows a decreasing trend.

Then add the historical locked-in positions from the past.

It can be said that the market simply does not have that much money to continue to raise the stock prices of corresponding stocks on a large scale.

Of course, when sentiment gradually enters a recession period and the main market trend gradually moves towards differentiation, there will still be one or two core leading stocks, as well as a small number of concept stocks, which will have a good market trend and continue to open up space upward.

But this cannot change the overall performance of the market, nor can it reverse the downward trend.

On the contrary, if the leading stocks continue to rise at this time, the attempt to increase their market share will accelerate the outflow of profit-taking. "

"According to Brother Chen..." Lao Zhang said, "Is this morning's market sentiment already a selling point for the day? Brother Chen thinks that the moment the market opens is most likely the highest point of sentiment for the day?"

Brother Chen nodded and said, "That's what I mean. Of course, there is still a certain difference between expectations and actual market trends. If you want higher certainty and want clearer buying and selling points, you can also look at the market's call auction stage or the market's intraday volume performance in the first five minutes of the official opening. Generally speaking, volume precedes price, and changes in trading volume... are enough to explain everything." (End of this chapter)