Rebirth of the Capital Legend

"The reason why people generally have low expectations for the liquor and white goods sectors is that they have already seen significant gains in the early stages," said Wang Shujie. "Have these two sectors experienced any significant adjustments in the past six months? They have basically been moving upward in small steps. At the beginning of the year, many major institutional investors dared to invest heavily, but at the current level, many of them are hesitant to increase their positions too much."

Moreover, from the perspective of industry development expectations...

Although the trends in the liquor and white goods sectors follow the logic of consumption recovery, there are still differences in their recovery cycles.

The liquor sector is actually closely related to business banquets.

The white goods sector is more closely related to the recovery of the real estate market.

The real estate industry is currently in a boom cycle, with real estate development projects in full swing across the country. The government has made large investments in land sales, resulting in generous income, so naturally, it will not be stingy when it comes to consumer entertainment. This is the underlying basic logic behind the recovery of liquor. In addition, in the early stages of the liquor sector, market expectations were generally too pessimistic, so now that the industry has gradually shifted to a boom cycle, the increase in expectations has naturally led to an increase in valuations, leading to rising stock prices.

But everyone has certain expectations for the liquor sector.

But in fact, there are still doubts in my mind about the recovery of the macroeconomy.

Therefore, the liquor sector is in a state of mind where everyone is optimistic about it but hesitant and dares not to increase positions decisively. As a result, this line has been fluctuating upward and the trend is difficult to be smooth. But overall, the fundamentals of this line are indeed gradually improving.

As for the white goods line...

As I just said, this line shows a positive correlation with real estate development.

After all, the real estate market is booming. The more new houses are sold, the stronger the desire for renovation will naturally be. Huayi Capital, an institution that holds a large number of chips, will naturally not reduce its holdings or take profit at this time. After all, the entire white goods industry cycle is still in a cycle of continuous expansion and growth, and the industry ceiling is far from being reached.

Of course, this line also has the same problems as the liquor sector.

That is, in the past six months, the increase in this line was a bit too large.

Therefore, before this line encounters a decent adjustment, the group of funds that did not have positions before and did not dare to intervene in large quantities will not take large-scale positions at this position.

However, the group of funds holding positions are unwilling to sell chips on a large scale at this position.

At the same time, in the two main areas of on-exchange and off-exchange, the main institutional capital groups with insufficient positions are unwilling to increase their positions on a large scale.

Then, naturally, the trend of this line will be more repetitive and continue to show a shrinking trend.

As for the layout of our fund products...

It is not yet the time to enter the two major sectors of liquor and white goods.

We still need to wait.

On the other hand, the new energy and smartphone industry chains are relatively low-priced, and the entire industry has just experienced a fundamental reversal. With expectations of explosive performance and strong industry growth in the future, it's a good opportunity to enter the market in the near future."

"Okay," Li Shangfeng said. "Since Mr. Wang still agrees that the new energy industry chain and the emerging industry chain are relatively stronger and more certain, then we should find a time to enter and transfer the corresponding positions to these two main lines."

Wang Shujie nodded and said, "It's not what I think, but the market feedback. In the recent market feedback, it is obvious that the new energy industry chain and the smartphone industry chain have gradually gained the recognition of the main capital groups in the market and are gradually moving out of the trend. Moreover, from the perspective of fundamental logic, the development of the industry has indeed reversed compared with the previous situation. When we invest, we still have to pay attention to the logic of industry expectations. If the expectations are positive, we can naturally give them a higher regard. If the expectations are very negative, such as in the film and television media, Internet software, and Internet applications sectors, then we can reduce the attention, remain rational, and try to avoid investing in these sectors.

After all, in a pro-cyclical market, stock prices are more likely to rise than to fall.

In a counter-cyclical period, stock prices tend to fall more easily than rise.

When trading in a pro-cyclical market, the tolerance rate is much higher, and the corresponding probability of making money is also much greater.

However, when trading in a counter-cyclical market, the tolerance rate and the probability of making money are much smaller.

No matter when, we must understand this.

Also, you must believe that the market is always right. There is no shortage of smart people in this market. When everyone starts to vote with their own real money and chooses the same direction and the same group of stocks, it means that this direction and these stock groups have strong future expectations, or potential benefits.

Essentially, what we need to do is follow the market and be friends with the trend, not enemies of it."

"Yeah." Li Shangfeng nodded and continued, "But I feel that in addition to the emerging industrial chains of film and television media, internet software, and internet applications, there are also some other marginal industries such as animal husbandry and agriculture. The core themes where a large amount of capital is currently concentrated should all be in a pro-cyclical trend. I feel that with the pro-cyclical development of so many core themes as the landing point, it is entirely possible to guide the market into a magnificent bull market and reverse the previous market trend."

"Reversing the bull-bear market trend is related to both pro- and counter-cyclical factors, but not too much," said Wang Shujie. "The biggest market factor related to the bull-bear market is still the market liquidity issue. With the massive amount of active capital both on and off the market being siphoned off by major developers, and a large amount of capital concentrated in real estate speculation, it's basically quite difficult for the market to obtain excessive liquidity. Without the support of sustained liquidity, with the current market enthusiasm and trading volume, it's difficult to truly pry open the heavy problem of trapped shares left over from the previous bull market.

If the problem of trapped shares cannot be solved, the so-called bear-bull transition will be just empty talk.

Because regardless of whether there is policy support or not.

The final outcome of market development will always be determined by capital.

If the funding situation is weak and there's no sustained buying support, the stock price can't rise. And if the stock price doesn't rise, market confidence and sentiment will naturally be unable to develop further. Overall…

I think the market will form a sideways and volatile trend for a long time to come.

This sideways movement will be range-bound.

For example, it was previously between 2600 and 3000 points, and it may be in the next range of 3000 to 3500 points.

And the index is moving out of the range of fluctuations.

The development of the major core trends in the market is likely to develop towards rotation or differentiation.

But whether it is rotation or differentiation.

With the support of underlying logic, the industry development cycle is in a pro-cyclical state, and the future expectations of the entire industry are based on a trend of continuous improvement.

Such a main market trend is unlikely to be too bad.

Looking at the current situation, I believe the only core market sectors that have this kind of industry expectation logic and are likely to independently strengthen, forming a sector breakthrough effect and mimic the previous trend of the major infrastructure construction are the new energy industry chain and the smartphone industry chain.

"Yeah." Li Shangfeng nodded again and said, "I agree with this."

And as the two core figures in charge of the Nuoan Blue Chip Mixed Select Main Fund Product trading room inside Nuoan Capital Company were talking to each other.

At this moment, on all major stock investment exchange platforms across the Internet...

A large number of retail investors are also quite optimistic about today's market trends and their expectations for subsequent market trends.

"None of the major core leading stocks showed any significant loss today, which indicates that the market trend is still improving."

"Of course, the Shanghai Composite Index has actually broken through 3100 points, and it will definitely continue to break upwards in the future."

"Today, leading stocks across all major core sectors have performed well. Stocks in the infrastructure sector, such as Oriental Yuhong, Beijiang Communications Construction, Huaxin Cement, Tianshan Cement, Capital Group, and Conch Cement, are also performing well. Stocks in the new energy industry chain, such as Sugon, Power Source, Ganfeng Lithium, and Tianqi Lithium, are also performing well. Stocks in the smartphone industry chain, such as Lixun Precision, Goertek, O-Film Technology, and Changying Precision, are all performing well and showing good profitability. I feel these stocks will continue to perform well tomorrow."

"It's about Huawen Online. There's some uncertainty about tomorrow's market trend, right?"

"I don't think there's much of a problem with Huawen Online. The market is still very enthusiastic about this stock, and within the entire film and television media, internet software, and internet application sectors, Huawen Online is essentially the only core leader recognized by the market's capital base. Furthermore, it's the most hyped stock in recent times. As long as the overall market trend remains positive, I think this stock is unlikely to crash first, leading to a series of sell-offs or a sharp drop."

"Yeah, I think so too. After all, Huawen Online and Huace Film & TV have helped boost their stock prices and gained recognition from a large number of retail investors. Many investors are following the trend and going long. Look at other previously popular core leading stocks, such as Huawen Media and Guangdong Media. They're already doomed. I estimate that these two stocks will be the most heavily losing stocks in the market for a long time to come."

"Actually, if we have to say what's a pity, the stock price trend of Baofeng Technology today is clearly a pity."

"Yes, this stock could have originally taken off, but it was blocked by Changying Precision. In fact, if it weren't for Changying Precision's blocking position, the entire main line of the smartphone industry chain probably wouldn't have been so popular this afternoon. It wouldn't have been so quickly recognized by a large number of investors in the market, and wouldn't have been hyped up in a consistent manner."

"Who can say for sure? Actually, I think... even if Changying Precision stock doesn't perform well today, I feel that the main line of the smartphone industry chain will most likely be recognized by a large number of investors in the market, and they will seize the opportunity to invest. After all, Apple's new product launch conference is in the second half of the month, and major global investors are always eager to participate every time Apple releases a new product. In other words, basically every round of Apple new product launches will trigger a wave of market speculation on related concepts."

"This is not surprising. After all, the expected hype is really high."

"That's right. I never expected that. I bought Baofeng Technology this morning. Now I really regret it. I can't even sell it. I just hope that Baofeng Technology's stock price will open a little lower tomorrow. I will leave after I make a small profit."

"Don't even think about it. Baofeng Technology's stock will definitely open significantly lower tomorrow."

"It's not certain, is it? We still have to see what the big investors who bought into Baofeng Technology this morning are thinking. We also have to look at the Dragon and Tiger List data for this stock today before we can make a decision. What if the main investors who bought Baofeng Technology this morning include the highly anticipated 'Fuxing Road'?"

"That's impossible, right? Since last year, I haven't seen Mr. Su's 'Fuxing Road' buying any pure concept stocks in the market. His heavily invested Oriental Yuhong stock isn't really a concept stock anymore, but rather one backed by future expectations.

I would rather believe that today's Lixun Precision stock has the shadow of Mr. Su's seat on "Fuxing Road".

I also absolutely don't believe that Baofeng Technology's stock has any connection to Mr. Su's seat on Fuxing Road."

"Haha, that's true. Lixun Precision's stock is really strong today, and it seems like judging by the market trends and trading volume, maybe even Mr. Su's Fuxing Road seat is involved. I just wonder if this stock will be on the Dragon and Tiger List today. If it were, I'd be able to see who bought and sold how much, which would be great."

"The intraday turnover rate of Lixun Precision's stock is probably not high enough. I don't know if it will make the list, but regardless of whether it does, I feel the subsequent market trend of this stock will not change significantly."

"I can't just say Lixun Precision is the only stock. It feels like there are signs of Mr. Su's 'Fuxing Road' building a long position in the entire smartphone industry chain. It's just that this sign isn't as obvious as with stocks like Oriental Yuhong, Ganfeng Lithium, and Tianqi Lithium."

Following discussions among the vast retail investor community both inside and outside the market.

The market time quickly reached 5 PM, and amidst everyone's anticipation, the daily trading data for both Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges began to be updated on schedule. (End of Chapter)