Rebirth of the Capital Legend

"I agree with Lao Liao," Chen Guiyun said. "Within the new energy industry chain, apart from a few concept sectors like lithium batteries and charging piles, there is indeed a huge divergence in the market performance of the corresponding component stocks in other sectors. Although most stocks in this sector maintained an upward trend at the close, it is clear that the subsequent potential for long positions and capital absorption has been somewhat overdrawn.

Also, because of this line, the major good news last Friday was released rather suddenly.

In this line area, when the market started in the early stage, there was no sufficient adjustment of the chip structure and internal chip consolidation.

In other words, the current potential profit-taking and short-term profit-taking in this area are still relatively heavy.

Its internal chip structure has not been fully consolidated and many institutions have not completed their positions.

The possibility of continuously watching the selling pressure from profit-taking and pushing up the stock price is actually not high.

Therefore, I agree with what Lao Liao said that tomorrow as the overall bullish sentiment in the market decreases, the new energy industry chain... will most likely enter a short-term adjustment trend.

However, no matter whether this line continues to rise or enters a short-term adjustment period.

I believe that the market trend of the new energy industry chain has not ended, and it is very likely that the trend of this line has just begun.

From the perspective of medium- and long-term investment and speculation.

The new energy industry chain still offers significant speculative and investment opportunities, and its expected future growth potential is no less than that of the core leading stocks in the corresponding infrastructure sector."

"But in terms of short-term speculation and investment cost-effectiveness, I'm afraid there aren't many opportunities, right?" Li Jinshi thought for a moment after listening to the two's analysis of the possible future trends of the new energy industry chain, a core market theme. "If we consider short-term speculation and investment cost-effectiveness, how should we prioritize the three hot core themes of large-scale infrastructure, the new energy industry chain, and the smartphone industry chain?"

Liao Guoxiang thought for a moment and said, "If we're talking about short-term speculation and investment cost-effectiveness, we should focus on the expectation gap and certainty of the three main lines. From the perspective of expectation gap, the current smartphone industry chain has the lowest market consensus, and the expected gap it can generate should also be the largest.

The two main directions are large-scale infrastructure and new energy industry chain...

Most of the favorable factors have been released. In the short term, it is difficult to have more unexpected favorable stimuli, so the expectation gap will definitely be worse.

But if we talk about certainty, then the line of major infrastructure should be the most certain.

First of all, housing prices in the real estate market across the country are still generally on an upward trend.

Secondly, major real estate companies are accelerating land acquisition and increasing the scale and progress of development projects. Moreover, this trend of continued rising housing prices in the future is likely to continue for a long time.

Finally, not only the mainland market, but also various capital groups are optimistic about this line.

It is not just the main institutional capital groups in the mainland that are actively increasing their positions and going long on this line. In the Hong Kong stock market, a large number of foreign institutional groups are also continuously increasing their positions and going long on this line. Moreover, the continued strength of related domestic real estate stocks in the Hong Kong stock market will also bring some stimulation to the mainland market for stock price increases.

Therefore, in terms of certainty, the large-scale infrastructure line is undoubtedly the highest.

Regarding the new energy industry chain, although the market received positive news last Friday, everyone expects that the fundamentals of the entire industry will reverse rapidly next year. The entire industry, and even the related companies in the upstream and downstream industry chains, will quickly return to the growth channel as the country increases subsidies.

However, this expectation has not been verified by any substantial performance growth.

Moreover, the expected performance growth will not be realized until next year. During such a long period of time, it is very uncertain whether there will be any unexpected events in the market and how the specific changes in the industry will proceed...

As for the smartphone industry chain, the certainty is even lower.

At present, the debate about the smartphone industry chain is still about whether the industry will reverse and recover. As for the major popular core stocks in the industry, it has not yet reached the stage of so-called valuation repair, performance explosion, and expectation fulfillment.

So, looking at it all...

If we are concerned about profit margins, it is definitely more appropriate to give priority to the smartphone industry chain.

If we focus on certainty, then it is definitely better to stick to the path of large-scale infrastructure construction.”

"It all depends on the direction of the broader market," Chen Guiyun added. "While the current market conditions, market sentiment, and external market expectations suggest the index is unlikely to experience a sustained decline at this level, if it continues to struggle to break through 3100 points and remains within its previous range of fluctuations, then the market's core trend lines will likely struggle to maintain upward momentum."

Liao Guoxiang responded: "I think the current market trend is very unlikely to be unexpected. The trend of the three core market themes, namely large-scale infrastructure, the smartphone industry chain, and the new energy industry chain, leading the market trend has initially formed. The majority of investors in the market, including a number of institutional investors, have reached a certain degree of consensus on these three core themes.

In the future, as long as the performance of major market indices is not too bad and there is no continuous plummeting trend.

That is, there will be no liquidity crisis.

So, regardless of whether the index rises or falls, the three core hot lines of large-scale infrastructure, new energy industry chain, and smart phone industry chain should be able to outperform the market performance.

So, I don’t think we need to worry too much about the risks in index performance.

You just need to pay attention to the various short-term active capital groups within the market, the flow directions on the main lines, and the sectors and individual stocks where the main funds are concentrated.

Although the market is currently facing downward pressure, with significant selling pressure from a combination of profit-taking and trapped positions, the localized profit-making opportunities and the rotation among various main sectors have not disappeared.

Under the premise that the market always maintains a local profit effect, a large number of investors both on and off the market should not easily reduce their positions and withdraw from the market, and will most likely continue to be active in the market. "

"Then let's respect the current market trends and continue to rely on these main lines." Li Jinshi thought about Liao Guoxiang's logic and found that there seemed to be no problem. He said, "Then let's continue to lock in positions in the smartphone industry chain and see how it goes."

Following the discussion among several core main speculators within the "Fushan Group".

At this moment...

Zhao Zhiyuan, a member of the Qilu Gang's main speculators, stared at the Dragon and Tiger List data released by the two markets. He also observed the sentiment of retail investors on major stock investment exchange platforms and said with a smile, "It seems that the overall buying and selling situation in today's Dragon and Tiger List data is in line with expectations. Mr. Su's two major seats, Fuxing Road and Huayi Capital, have shown neither obvious signs of reducing their holdings nor signs of continuing to increase their holdings.

However, the vast majority of institutional main capital groups are still continuing to increase their holdings amid today's divergent market trends, which should be considered slightly beyond expectations.

At the same time, there are a large number of short-term market capital groups.

Although many market speculators have taken profits and exited the market, there are still many who lock in their positions and take a bullish view, or continue to increase their positions and go long.

Of course, overall, the market's bullish sentiment has declined.

However, as long as the major capital groups in the market are still actively taking over, I think that under this situation, the subsequent market trends will not be too pessimistic.

The probability index is at this position, and after a brief adjustment, it will continue to break upward.

Also, in today's Dragon and Tiger List data, several core hot concept leading stocks are still worth noting. I feel that Beijiang Communications Construction is likely to go crazy. I estimate that as long as the index performance is not particularly bad tomorrow, this stock will likely have a five-day winning streak, surpassing the previous stock of Huawen Online."

"Well, Beijiang Communications Construction's stock is indeed performing well. Also, today's Dragon and Tiger List data for this stock is very good," Zhang Wei said. "But even if sentiment supports it and expectations are there, breaking through five consecutive boards is still very difficult."

Zhao Zhiyuan chuckled and said, "It's definitely still quite difficult. However, as far as the current core hot stocks in the market are concerned, I think Beijiang Communications Construction has a higher probability of success. The consensus expectations for the other hot stocks are not as strong at the moment. It seems that it will be quite difficult for them to strengthen independently or continue to expand their upward potential."

"Yes," Liang Jiucheng continued, "After Huawen Online's stock broke down and died, the current market short-term sentiment, if we want to quickly recover and return to the previous hot situation, there must be a new core concept leading stock that can continue to play a strong profit effect on the market and break the previous record of consecutive boards and rebound height created by Huawen Online. And at present... the only stock that has this ability and a high probability of achieving it is Beijiang Communications Construction. If this stock fails to continue to strengthen in tomorrow's market trend and dies in the process of hitting five consecutive boards, then the subsequent short-term market speculation height will be further suppressed.

In this case, continued market adjustments are probably inevitable.

If this trend continues, the market's risk aversion will likely intensify. At that point, the market trends of major high-performing and popular mainline stocks will likely come under further pressure. A large amount of funds in the market may flow to the weighted mainline sectors for risk aversion, or they may choose to trade by switching between highs and lows."

"The market's weighted main sector has already strengthened quite a bit today, hasn't it?" Zhang Wei said. "It looks like a preview of the divergence in the market's subsequent overall adjustment."

Zhao Zhiyuan pondered for a moment and said, "I also think that if the market continues to adjust, a large number of funds in the market will most likely flow to the weighted mainline sectors. The probability of switching between high and low is actually relatively small.

After all, the current market's low-level main line areas have no underlying logical support.

Its corresponding internal chip structure is also quite chaotic.

Given that the internal chip structure is very chaotic, I think it is still a bit unrealistic to form a good rebound, arouse consensus among various capital groups in the market, and finally form a joint force.

In contrast, there is no such problem in the main line areas of the main board.

Especially the two major weighted main sectors of liquor and white appliances, which not only have strong underlying logical support, but also have the confidence support of President Su's large-scale lock-up.

Furthermore, these two major weighted sectors have not actually seen much growth in the recent market trends.

This leaves a lot of room for catch-up growth for these two main sectors.

In addition, the internal chip structure of the two lines of liquor and white appliances is quite stable. In this main line area, not only are institutional funds locked in a large number of positions, but many retail investors, under the influence of Mr. Su's large-scale lock-up, also dare to lock in positions and be optimistic about them. Therefore, the potential selling pressure on the market is actually not large.

If the overall market trend falls into adjustment in the future, people will become cautious in chasing high-priced stocks.

So, I believe that the two major sectors of liquor and white goods will definitely attract risk-averse funds, and the underlying logic behind their rising stock prices exists."

"I think what Old Zhao said is very good." Zhang Wei nodded in response. "If Beijiang Communications Construction's stock fails to perform well tomorrow and fails to further expand the market's short-term speculation space, and if the market's short-term investment sentiment further declines, the large amount of capital in the market will inevitably converge on the main weighted sectors of the main board, especially the two core sectors of liquor and white goods."

Liang Jiucheng said, "To further maintain the short-term market speculation, the performance of Beijiang Communications Construction alone is not enough. As the saying goes, a single tree cannot support the market. If Beijiang Communications Construction performs well, the other core concept leading stocks in the market, such as Changying Precision, Tianci Materials, Duofuduo, Shuguang Shares, Tianshan Cement... these stocks must not suffer too serious losses. Only then can we reverse the obvious decline in short-term market sentiment today."

"Lao Liang, what do you think the probability is that Beijiang Communications Construction will rise for five consecutive days tomorrow?" Zhao Zhiyuan asked. "Also, do you think Changying Precision's trend has ended? Is it still a good time to invest in it tomorrow? I see that the Fushan-affiliated funds that invested in Changying Precision yesterday haven't even exited their positions today. Honestly... based on the past trading style of Fushan-affiliated funds, this is clearly exceeding expectations."

Liang Jiucheng pondered for a moment and said, "I think there's at least a 70% chance that Beijiang Jiaojian will perform well tomorrow. As for Changying Precision, although it didn't hit the daily limit today, if Beijiang Jiaojian can perform well tomorrow and further open up space, I think Changying Precision will likely follow suit. So, if the overall sentiment is good, it's definitely worth considering." (End of Chapter)