My life is like walking on thin ice

Chapter 468 Alternative Plan
However, when it came to specific combat methods, the plan that Zhidu came up with made Liu Rong hesitate.

According to Zhidu's prediction, if the Battle of Gaoque was really launched in the twelfth lunar month, even if the Shaofu's treasury tried its best, it would still be impossible to avoid non-combat casualties among the soldiers due to the cold weather.

——The twelfth month, which is the twelfth month of winter, is the coldest time of the year in the northern hemisphere.

And wading across the ice and attacking Gaoque would inevitably be a surprise attack in the middle of the night.

In the dead of winter in December, at midnight, on a high wall outside the Great Wall, with a frozen river...

Taking all these objective conditions into consideration, Zhidu came to the general conclusion that the vanguard force that ignited the Battle of Gaoque must have at least 30,000 troops to successfully cross the river and maintain combat effectiveness.

And this would require Zhidu to lead at least 50,000 people and set out from Bowang City at night.

In other words, before the war broke out, the Han Dynasty would suffer non-combat casualties of up to 20,000 people.

Not too many people will die.

Most people only suffered frostbite, some were seriously injured and became disabled, and those in a better condition were just temporarily frozen and lost their combat effectiveness.

But this number still made Liu Rong, who understood the principle that 'a merciful army cannot be commanded', hesitate.

Fifty thousand men set out from Bowang City, and when they reached Gaoque on the other side of the river, only thirty thousand soldiers were left.
This is just the vanguard.

After the vanguard troops start the battle, there must naturally be subsequent main forces to follow up and launch a full-scale attack on Gaoque.

Even the vanguard has 50,000 people - even if it is calculated based on the 'vanguard of 30,000', the main force following up must be at least 50,000 to 80,000.

This means that more than 100,000 troops have been deployed.

Not to mention these 100,000 people, how many of them would be frozen to death, or like the guards of the Northern and Southern armies on Mount Baideng, be frostbitten or disabled by frostbite.

Just the cold-resistant clothing, tactical weapons, and additional cold-resistant measures such as wine and meat for these 100,000 people, etc., are an extremely huge expense.

Of course, as long as Gaoque can be taken down, everything will be easy.

The wealth accumulated for the Han family during the reign of Emperor Wen and Emperor Jing was enough to support the Han Dynasty under the control of Liu Rong, and to launch at least dozens of Battles of Gaoque, or three to five full-scale wars between the Han and the Xiongnu.

But this does not mean that Liu Rong can use this huge fortune as a cost for trial and error.

To put it more bluntly: If Gaoque can be taken down, Liu Rong will not feel bad even if he has to take out more than 10% of the Shaofu's treasury.

Because it's worth it.

Liu Rong could also accept thousands or even tens of thousands of casualties.

Because it’s worth it.

Gaoque is worth Liu Rong's considerable investment.

But as Zhidu just said: No matter what, attacking Gaoque is by no means a sure-win deal - it's not even a deal that can be done for sure.

The most ideal result, naturally, is that the Han army captures Gaoque in a very short time at the lowest reasonable cost, such as the cost of 1,800 deaths and several thousand injuries.

But the worst result was: countless Han soldiers were killed and wounded, the casualties were heavy, the treasury was invested hugely, and the battle was in a stalemate for a long time.

In the end, the Han family lost a large number of combat backbones, the military morale and public opinion plummeted, and the treasury consumed a huge amount of resources, but could only withdraw from Gaoque to Bowang City in disgrace.

Then, the Huns would inevitably launch a counterattack.

Bowang City was the first to be hit, the Munan area fell into turmoil, and the Beidi and Longyou lines would once again become the border and front line where the Han Dynasty needed to deploy defenses.

The worst thing is: the probability of the latter bad result coming true is no less than 30%!
However, the possibility of achieving the above-mentioned most ideal situation is less than 20%.

As for the remaining 50%, the Han Empire paid a heavy price and finally captured Gaoque as they wished, but they were also seriously injured in the battle and were unable to launch large-scale military operations in a short period of time. They could only defend Gaoque with difficulty.

In this way, Gaoque would not only fail to become a strategic fulcrum for the Han Dynasty to further expand its power and ambitions in Hexi and Munan, but would also become a knife point for the Xiongnu to "bleed" the Han Dynasty.

For a long time afterwards, the Huns would attack Gaoque every year, and the Han would continue to send new forces to make up for the loss of troops at Gaoque.

People kept dying, and logistical supplies kept being transported.

In the end, either the treasury was emptied, and the Han Dynasty had no choice but to abandon Gaoque, or even further abandon Hetao and retreat back to the Great Wall;

Or maybe the Han dynasty had recovered before the treasury was emptied, but they no longer had the people's support and morale to continue to advance, and were caught in a dilemma...

After understanding this, it is not difficult to understand the true meaning of Liu Rong's previous words "Gaoque depends on the destiny of the Han Dynasty".

From a military perspective, the only goal of the Han Dynasty in the Battle of Gaoque was to capture Gaoque at any cost.

There are only two possible outcomes of the war: taking Gaoque or not taking Gaoque.

But if we extend our perspective from looking at the Battle of Gaoque alone to looking at the future strategic direction of the Han and Xiongnu as a whole, then in this battle, what the Han had to do was not just to capture Gaoque.

——First of all, be fast!
The Han family must capture Gaoque in a very short period of time - preferably within ten to fifteen days!

Because once a decisive battle is dragged into a stalemate stage, it will most likely fail, and it will severely undermine the morale of the army and even the people's hearts and minds!
Only by being quick could the Han Dynasty capture Gaoque relatively easily before the other Xiongnu tribes in the Munan area could react and provide continuous support to Gaoque.

Once the war is delayed, Gaoque's defense will inevitably become stronger with the passage of time, and the difficulty of attack will become greater and greater, making the direction of the war increasingly unfavorable to the Han Dynasty.

Therefore, a quick victory is what the Han family must do.

Secondly, there are casualties.

Again.

Liu Rong has money.

The reign of Emperor Wen and Emperor Jing, jointly created by his father and grandfather, left Liu Rong with an extremely rich family fortune.

If it involves spending money, Liu Rong can afford any amount and is willing to spend it on Gao Que.

But human lives - the casualties of soldiers - was not a question of whether Liu Rong was willing to give up, but a question of whether people in the world could accept and recognize it.

In this era, the vast majority of ordinary people have never left their hometown in their entire lives - they have never even left their county or township.

No matter how majestic and difficult it is to conquer Gaoque, they naturally cannot understand why because they have never seen it.

They only knew that in just one siege, countless brave men of the Han family died, and many upright men became disabled and became a burden to their families.

Moreover, they did not hear all this from hearsay, but saw with their own eyes that their neighbors, and even the pillars of their own families, had fallen into such a miserable end.

They would also not understand the importance of Gaoque and its significance to the future strategic deployment of the Han Dynasty.

All they knew was that many people died, many people were disabled, and they spent a lot of money to get a broken pass abandoned by the Qin Dynasty.

This battle is not worth fighting.

This battle should not be fought.

After this experience, next time there is a war, they will say: Goodbye?

Don't tell me how big Hexi is or how good Munan is.

Back then, they also said that Gaoque would be this and that, and that if we took it, we would do this and that;

As a result, so many people died, so many were injured or disabled, and every family in the surrounding area was in mourning.

Stop for a few years~
Isn’t it good to farm peacefully?
Having said that, the concept that a kind person cannot command an army can only be accepted by those in power and those who "command the army."

As the soldiers being controlled, the lower-class people will not only be unable to accept this concept, but will even be angry at those who accept this concept!
Because the internal logic of "a kind army cannot be commanded" is that we should not regard necessary sacrifices as a disaster, but should accept the objective fact that achieving strategic goals requires certain costs and sacrifices.

But in the eyes of the grassroots people, the "victims" of this logic, sacrifice is not necessary or not.

Sacrifice is sacrifice, and death in battle is death in battle.

Although dying in battle is considered an honorable death, they have no choice but to accept the sacrifice.

They only accept that in war, they are forced into a desperate situation, with no way to retreat and no way to survive, and they have no choice but to die in battle;

But he absolutely could not accept that he, who originally had a chance to survive and did not have to die, was sacrificed by the senior generals and sent into a trap that would lead to his death.

——They hope that after their sacrifice, their superiors will express regret and self-blame;
Rather than taking it for granted as something that had been anticipated.

Therefore, in the Battle of Gaoque, the Han army not only needed to win a quick victory and occupy Gaoque as soon as possible, but also had to keep the number of casualties within a reasonable range as much as possible.

What is a reasonable range?
According to Liu Rong's rough estimate based on past experience: for a Sima consisting of 500 people, who are most likely from the same place of origin, for every person killed in battle, three people need to be rewarded for their merits.

Moreover, among these three people who were rewarded for their merits, at least one should be in the same group as the person who died in battle.

In addition, the number of casualties among the Simas of these 500 people should not exceed 50, and must not exceed 100.

Only in this way will the public classify those who died in battle as having 'bad luck' or being incompetent.

Because there are those three who were awarded titles for their merits - especially there is a kid who is most likely related to his family and was also awarded titles for his merits as a reference;

No one would think that their own men died in battle because the Han Dynasty fought a war that should not have been fought, could not be won, or required the loss of lives.

It was just bad luck;

It was just bad luck;

It's just that my skills are not as good as others...

With such self-comfort, coupled with the court's pensions and preferential treatment, as well as those who were rewarded for their merits as examples and encouragement, the blow to public morale and public opinion caused by the death of soldiers can be offset.

Specifically speaking of the Battle of Gaoque, the "casualties within a reasonable range" were even narrower.

——In the Battle of Gaoque, as long as the Han army wins, everyone will be rewarded!

And there is a high probability that even those who died in battle will be honored posthumously!
Therefore, in this battle, the number of people killed or injured on the battlefield, as well as non-combat casualties before and after the war, should not exceed one quarter of the total force.

To use a more intuitive numerical example, take the Battle of Gaoque. If the Han army sent 100,000 people to participate in the war, only 25,000 of them would lose their combat effectiveness due to death, injury, etc.

It sounds like there's quite a lot of space.

A casualty rate of 25% is far beyond the army's defeat line no matter what era or civilization the war is in.

But don't forget!

Zhidu just said: If you want to send 30,000 vanguards to Gaoque, Zhidu has to lead 50,000 people from Bowang City!
The battle hasn't even started yet, and Zhidu has already used up 20,000 of the 25,000 casualty target!

Even if half of these 20,000 non-combat casualties are not dead or disabled, but have simply lost their combat effectiveness due to exhaustion, this target will still require at least 10,000 people!
The remaining 15,000 troops were not enough to be used in the attack on Gaoque.

——The non-combat casualties during the main force's follow-up alone would exceed the total 'budget' of 25,000.

Imagine if after the Battle of Gaoque, what the old farmers heard and saw was that ten men who left the village, one froze to death, one was disabled by the frost, one died in battle, and one was disabled on the battlefield;
Although the remaining six had made contributions, they were all covered in wounds, some minor and some serious.

If it were you, would you cheer for the victory?

Do you think that the Han family won a "great victory"?

of course not.

At most, you can only accept one person freezing to death or dying in battle, or one person being disabled by freezing or being injured on the battlefield.

As for the remaining eight people, most of them must have made meritorious contributions and be rewarded, and they must not be too embarrassed or suffer obvious injuries!
Only in this way can you continue to educate your children and grandchildren: It’s good to be a soldier!
Fighting in battle can make you successful!
Look at Zhang San, Li Si and Wang Ermaizi. They fought a battle of Gaoque and got everything, including land, houses, titles and beautiful wives!
what?
Are you talking about the unlucky guy next door?
hi~
How can there not be casualties in a war?

Wasn't it because he didn't hone his skills well that he failed on the battlefield?

This posed a huge problem for Liu Rong and the Han family under his control.

——War in this era is not as simple as sending soldiers to the front lines.

A combat force of 100,000 people, even if fighting inland, would require at least twice the number of civilian laborers and young and strong men to be responsible for the transportation of logistical supplies and some auxiliary work.

The Battle of Gaoque took place outside the Great Wall.

According to Liu Rong's most conservative estimate, even in the Battle of Gaoque, if the Han Dynasty only invested the minimum requirement for the battle: 100,000 soldiers, it would still be necessary to conscript at least 300,000 civilians to serve as logistics transport soldiers or auxiliary soldiers.

Four hundred thousand people fought a decisive battle in the cold winter outside the Great Wall!

We have to win the battle quickly and control casualties - and these include non-combat casualties!
Liu Rong only has two choices left.

Either we find a way to avoid it as much as possible, or it would be best if we could completely avoid non-combat casualties among Han soldiers due to weather factors.

That is to say, the soldiers must be kept 100% warm, and the number of people who freeze to death, become disabled, or have frostbite can be kept in single digits.

Or, through some other method - such as tens of thousands of troops sneaking into Gaoque, fighting one on one at the same time, and taking Gaoque without bloodshed, to greatly reduce casualties during the battle.

Neither is very realistic.

But Liu Rong seemed to have to choose one...

(End of this chapter)