My life is like walking on thin ice

Chapter 494 Gambler’s Psychology
Liu Rong's prediction was soon verified.

In the middle of the first lunar month, two months after Gaoque was captured by the Han, the chieftains of the various tribes in Hexi began to gather in the area around Xiutu Lake.

As for what they are discussing specifically, it is not difficult to guess.

——It would be best to drag down the Hunxie tribe that ‘occupied’ Xiu Tu Ze, and go to Hetao together to cause trouble for the Han people!

We should strive to create an opportunity to recapture Gaoque in the early spring for the various tribes in the Munan area that were scattered in the Munan area and controlled by the Right Wise King Yizhixie.

At the very least, some of the Han people's attention should be diverted from Gaoque and Munan north of Gaoque to the western part of Hetao.

Of course, the ideal situation would be to bring the Hunxie tribe into the group as well.

Naturally, there were also less than ideal situations - the Hunxie tribe was unwilling to "go along with the Hexi tribes" and was unwilling to wade into this muddy water.

If this is the case, the various tribes in Hexi will naturally have to change their goals.

Originally, the tribes in Hexi united with the Hunxie tribe that controlled Xiutu Lake and invaded the Hetao area controlled by the Han Dynasty from west to east.
Transformed into: The tribes in Hexi united and besieged the Hunxie tribe in Xiutu Ze!

Firstly, it was to prevent the Hunxie tribe from standing idly by and reaping the benefits - wait for the Hexi tribes to get into trouble in Hetao, and then cause sabotage in the rear, or take the opportunity to annex the injured Hexi tribes.

Secondly, it is a different way to contain the Han people in the Hetao region.

Although Xiutu Lake was actually "occupied" by the Hunxie tribe, in theory, it had been offered to the Han people by the Hunxie tribe.

If the Han people want to make plans in Hexi in the future, they will not be able to completely ignore Xiutu Lake and the Hunxie tribe that "guards Xiutu Lake for them".

Therefore, the siege of Xiutu Ze and Hunxie by the Hexi tribes could also play a role in restraining the Han people, and also create an opportunity for the Munan tribes north of Gaoque to recapture Gaoque.

no way.

For the tribes in Hexi, which side of the Han and Xiongnu controlled Gaoque would directly affect their attitude towards these two behemoths.

In the past, the Huns occupied Gaoque and even Hetao!

The tribes in Hexi were of the same origin as the Xiongnu Chanyu court and were also nomadic peoples, so they had a natural closeness.

Secondly, the Hetao area was still controlled by the Xiongnu at that time, and the tribes in Hexi did not even directly border the Han territory!
If it weren't for the occasional traveling merchants on the grasslands, the Hexi tribes wouldn't even know what the Han people looked like, let alone get in touch with them or have exchanges with them.

Therefore, in the past, when the Xiongnu controlled Gaoque and the entire Hetao area south of Gaoque, the Hexi tribes sided with the Xiongnu without reservation between the Han and Xiongnu sides.

After all, the Han people are far away, while the Huns are right before our eyes.

The kindness of the Han people may not be useful, but the malice of the Huns is bound to be fatal!
What's more, the tribes in Hexi were not all foreign races or alien species that had nothing to do with the "Huns".

If the "Huns" refer to the bloodline of the former Huns tribe, then Hexi certainly has nothing to do with the Huns.

But if the "Huns" refer to the "subjects of the Xiongnu Empire" who surrendered and followed the Xiongnu Chanyu before and after the unification of the grassland, then there are still quite a number of "Huns" with a good pedigree among the Hexi tribes today.

The most important thing is: the Huns unified the grassland and became the unique overlord of the grassland. It started with the Huns defeating the Yuezhi people, driving them out of Hexi and heading west.

The Xiongnu's "unification of the grasslands" originally included the Hexi region.

Since then, I have started to talk nonsense about the tribes in Hexi.

According to the Han people's value system, the Xiongnu, a "great country of hundreds of barbarians", is actually quite similar to the feudal lords of the Zhou Dynasty.

The Xiongnu Chanyu, like the Zhou emperor, was the "common ruler of the world", but he did not maintain too strong control over the entire grassland.

The Chanyu Court was similar to the Zhou Court, and was mainly responsible for the one and a half mu of land directly under the Chanyu Court, as well as the tributes from various tribes on the grassland.

Isn't this the Zhou royal family, who put their main efforts into the governance of "Zhou land" and made the princes of the world pay tribute to the Zhou emperor...

As for military mobilization, it is even more similar.

——As soon as the King of Zhou issued an order, all the princes in the world obeyed it.

In the same way, when the Xiongnu Khan sounded a horn, all the tribes on the grassland would also send out their best troops and rush towards the direction where the Khan was shooting arrows.

The governance in ordinary days is also very similar.

Just as the Zhou emperor hardly interfered in the internal affairs of the princes, and even did not care how the princes occupied their fiefs;

The Xiongnu Chanyu court completely ignored the internal affairs of the Xiongnu tribes, and in principle, did not interfere much in the disputes between the tribes.

For example, when the Zhou emperor was in power, the princes of the world were in constant conflict and war;

For example, when the Xiongnu Chanyu unified the grasslands, the tribes fought and annexed each other...

It can even be said that the so-called "Xiongnu Empire" today is actually an alternative Zhou feudal regime with nomadic civilization as its main body.

From this perspective, the tribes in Hexi, including the tribes in the south of Mu and the tribes in the north of Mu, were actually princes "enfeoffed" by the Xiongnu Chanyu court in various parts of the grassland.

For these tribes, the Xiongnu Chanyu court was the suzerain state.

Between the suzerain state and the foreign enemy, the "Xiongnu princes" in the Hexi region naturally knew how to choose.

What's more, the suzerain country can beat him up at any time, but the enemy is thousands of miles away and doesn't even share a border with him.

But after the change of ownership of the Hetao region, the problem began to become complicated.

The Hetao region, which was originally controlled by the Chanyu court, or other "princes", fell into the hands of the Han Dynasty, the enemy of the entire Xiongnu Empire.

The "Hetao princes" who once belonged to the Xiongnu Empire also turned into "princes" of the Han people - at least on the surface they submitted to the Han people.

The only territorial connection between the Hexi tribes and their suzerain state, the Xiongnu Chanyu Court, and the Xiongnu Empire was the plateaus and mountains north of Hexi, and a Gaoque that barely connected Munan and Hexi.

At this time, the tribes in Hexi were actually feeling a bit uncomfortable.

The Xiongnu Chanyu Ting, who was the "Son of Zhou", and other "princes", were all blocked at Gaoque and could not get out;

Although small troops and diplomatic missions could still reach Hexi from Gaoque, or travel through mountains and rivers and across the plateau to reach Hexi, large groups of troops - especially the army worth mentioning - could not support Hexi from Munan.

However, the Han people occupied Hetao and then began to covet Hexi.

The tribes in Hexi were in a panic when a traitor appeared: the Hunxie tribe massacred the Xiutu tribe and even gave the Xiutu Lake to the Han people!
Although all the tribes in Hexi knew that the Hunxie tribe would most likely not really hand over Xiutu Lake to the Han people for control.

The Hunxie tribe's plan is most likely to use this as a stepping stone to advance themselves and make the Han people their backers.

Then, relying on the Han people as their backers, they gradually expanded in the Hexi region.

But for the tribes in Hexi, there was essentially not much difference between having their living space gradually squeezed westwards from the Hetao region by the ferocious Han people and being gradually expanded and encroached upon by the Hunxie tribe which controlled the Xiutu Lake.

——All will be swallowed up and all will be eliminated!

The only difference is whether it was annexed by the Han people or by the Hunxie tribe.

It seems that the latter is slightly more acceptable.

But judging from the "bad deeds" of the Hunxie tribe in massacring the Xiutu tribe, the Hunxie tribe might not necessarily treat their relatives in the Hexi region more gently than the Han people!

And now, the situation is even worse.

Gaoque was lost! Gaoque was also taken away by the Han people. The "princes" in the Hexi region were completely disconnected from the Shanyu Court, the suzerain state, and other princes - and the territory of the Xiongnu Empire!
Without Gaoque, the Chanyu court and various tribes in the Munan area were not only unable to provide support to the Hexi region, or to contain the Han people on the flank, but they were even unable to protect themselves and were facing a formidable enemy!
If it is said that when Hetao and Gaoque were both owned by the Xiongnu Empire, the "Xiongnu princes" in the Hexi region were 100% loyal to the Chanyu Court;
After Hetao was taken away by the Han people, a small number of "Hexi princes" began to consider changing their allegiance, and another small number of tribes decided to wait and see.

Now, Gaoque has also been taken away by the Han people.

Most of the tribes in Hexi that were originally considering whether to submit to the Han people have already made up their minds.

Those who were originally on the sidelines have also begun to consider whether to surrender.

In addition, there is a very small group of ambitious people, such as the Hunxie tribe, who want to take advantage of the chaos to strengthen themselves in order to achieve their own ambitions.

Excluding all of the above, the remaining Hexi ethnic groups who are still loyal to the Chanyu Court, firmly support the Chanyu Court's rule in the grassland - in the Hexi region, and resolutely resist the Han people are less than half.

Even this less than half of "Hun loyalty" has actually forced them into a desperate situation with no way out.

Fight with the Han people?

We haven't even fought at Shanyu Ting, we've lost Hetao and Gaoque!
How could the two taels of meat from Hexi be enough for the Han people to fill their teeth?

But submitting to the Han people made everyone doubtful.

Although it is said that the way of survival on the grassland is eternal: the weak depend on the strong, the strong depend on the stronger, and the stronger depend on the strongest;
Although the nomadic people on the grasslands do not have as strong a sense of defense against foreigners as the Han people, nor do they have the fear of being "assimilated by the other side".

However, the different civilizations still make nomadic people feel inevitable fear.

——Fear of the unknown and resistance to change.

What are the best days like for the tribes in Hexi?
Don’t change anything, the Xiongnu Chanyu Ting should still suppress the grassland!
The tribes fought to the death, and then became good brothers through marriage. This was nothing more than internal competition of conscience and survival of the fittest.

If there really is a choice, let the tribes in Hexi choose: one, let the Huns rule Hexi, two, let the Han people rule Hexi, three, let the people of Hexi rule Hexi themselves?

The first option to be eliminated might be option 2.

But the best choice will never be three!

But one!

The Huns will continue to inform Hexi that nothing will change!

Because compared to freedom, nomadic people desire stability more.

Stability means resistance to change.

Because no one knows what will happen after the change.

It may be good, it may be bad;
It's always unknown.

But everyone can see with their own eyes what it would be like if there was no change: it can be no better than this, and it can’t be much worse.

In fact, it is not just nomadic people - the Chinese agricultural civilization also inherently desires stability and resists change.

Because of the changes, while the upper limit is raised, the lower limit is also lowered.

The upper limit is difficult to achieve and requires a lot of effort.

But the lower limit can fall very easily.

Just like a farmer who continues to farm, although he won’t have enough to eat and won’t make a fortune, he will most likely not starve to death.

If you can’t get rich and can’t fill your stomach, it means your upper limit is not high enough.

The high probability of not starving to death means that the lower limit is not too low.

What if things change - farmers stop farming and start doing business or become officials?

The upper limit is of course from not having enough to eat and not being able to make money, to suddenly rising to becoming rich and powerful!
But it is not necessarily achievable.

On the contrary, the lower limit has been lowered from the original high probability of not starving to: although it is possible that one will die and the clan will be wiped out, or even die a miserable death.

It's you, how do you choose?
Some people may say: Take a chance and a bicycle can be turned into a motorcycle.

But in reality, no one would use their own bicycle to broadcast that illusory motorcycle.

Because the bicycle was bought by me through hard work every minute and saving up a few dollars of hard-earned money.

As for the motorcycle, there is only a small chance of getting it, but there is a high probability that only the bicycle will be included.

Therefore, there are only two situations that will make people fight and strive for such low-probability events.

Or, you are at the end of your rope - let alone a bicycle, you don’t even have a dollar to take the bus. If you don’t try, you will starve to death!
Or, there are a lot of bicycles, and it wouldn't hurt to take one in;

But if you succeed, what you get back is not a motorcycle, but a Lamborghini!

The same principle actually applies to the tribes in Hexi.

——How are the tribes in Hexi doing now?

Obviously not good.

There is no food for the next meal, and there is a snow disaster this year and a plague next year, and people die at the slightest provocation.

Only nobles could eat meat, and only herdsmen could eat cheese and other dairy products. Their lives were not only miserable, but at least bleak.

But no one is willing to change.

Because of the change, there is only a very small possibility that everyone can have enough food and drink and live a good life with a wife and children.

The greater possibility is that even these down-to-earth days of hardship and poverty are gone - and even one’s life may not be saved.

A good death is worse than living...

What's more, the lives of the tribes in Hexi have not reached the end of their rope, and they will not be able to survive if they don't change...

So, the first war after the beginning of spring was beyond everyone's expectations: it broke out in Xiutu Lake.

The two warring parties: the united diehards of the Hexi tribes, against the Hunxie tribe that "occupied" Xiutu Lake, and a small number of Hexi tribes that had their own ulterior motives.

Immediately afterwards, the second battle for Gaoque began.

——The Right Wise King of the Xiongnu: Luandi Yizhixie, mobilized the Right Wise King's own troops, as well as the tribes south of Mu, totaling 140,000 cavalry, a total of 80,000 troops and horses, to launch a counterattack against Gaoque!

At the same time, Yunzhong City was surrounded.

Mayi in the north of Dai and Yuyang in the north of Yan were under pressure from the Xiongnu army.

Finally, even within the Hetao area, some unstable factors began to appear.

It's like a scrapped machine that has been replaced with new parts after many years.

With the outbreak of the Battle of Gaoque, almost all possible places where war could break out between the Han and Xiongnu began to be filled with the smell of gunpowder...

(End of this chapter)