My life is like walking on thin ice

Chapter 541 A Little Different
As the saying goes: Better safe than sorry.

Whether it's an individual at the micro level, or a group, nation, or even a civilization at the macro level, this should all be done.

Making preparations for both the most optimistic and the most pessimistic outcomes is an indispensable and cautious approach in the history of civilization.

Clearly, the current level of civilization among nomadic peoples has not yet grasped this point.

In China, even in this backward era more than two thousand years ago, when the social status of farmers was almost at its lowest, there was still a sense of "storing grain to prepare for unforeseen events".

In later, more modern times, Chinese civilization went even further, storing massive amounts of strategic resources on a national scale to prepare for unforeseen circumstances.

Even in later, modern times, a well-off teenager may harbor a dream of building a doomsday fortress and stockpiling resources for a century in preparation for the end of the world.

Specifically, at the national and civilizational level, and especially for the Xiongnu people today, living on the harsh grasslands and constantly facing threats to their survival, they should have had a greater sense of crisis.

They should be more frugal and cautious when acquiring supplies;

When they have the resources to choose, they should focus more on how to produce resources sustainably rather than how to plunder resources continuously.

Even if we consider the Han dynasty as a river that will never run dry, nomadic people should realize that on the grasslands where the weather changes three times a day, nothing is immutable.

In just over a hundred years, the dominant forces of the grasslands have evolved from the Donghu and Yuezhi to the present-day Xiongnu.

The once powerful tribes of the grasslands—the tribes under Modu Chanyu—are now reduced to less than one-tenth of their former strength, and the tribes under Laoshang Chanyu are similarly reduced to only three or four-tenths.

Even the once-powerful and prominent kingdoms that were once so prominent on the grasslands when the current Chanyu ascended the throne have now declined by more than half, or even disappeared completely.

On the grasslands, there is only one thing that remains constant: change.

The only constant on the grassland is that everything is changing.

Moreover, it changes extremely quickly and in a very short period of time.

From the lifespan of a person and the peak fighting power of a warrior, to the strength of a tribe and even the ownership of the grassland overlord.

Given such a volatile and harsh living environment, nomadic peoples should have developed a stronger sense of crisis than Han Chinese farmers.

They should think in the spring: if the livestock are not fattened up by autumn, how will they survive the winter?

If winter comes and the tribe cannot find a suitable dung-filled depression, what should the tribe do?

They should think when they are fighting each other: If I attack others today, and others attack me tomorrow, how should I respond so that the entire tribe will not be enslaved?

Furthermore, when they invaded the Han people in the south, they should have considered what to do if the nomadic people became weaker or the agricultural people became stronger.
What should one do when they can no longer take anything from the Han people, or even have their cattle and sheep taken away by the Han people?
Unfortunately, there are no "what ifs" in anything in this world.

The harsh environment in which nomadic people lived did not instill in them a sufficient sense of crisis. Instead, the extremely harsh living conditions gave rise to two excessively extreme ideologies.

The first type is extremely negative: if you don't even know if you can live to see tomorrow, who would store food for tomorrow?

I'll eat my fill today; I'll fill my stomach first.

Let's deal with tomorrow's problems tomorrow. If we can live to see tomorrow's troubles, then we can think about what to eat tomorrow.

This survival creed, akin to that of a beggar who gives up on himself and only cares about the present while ignoring the future, makes it difficult for nomadic people to formulate long-term plans on a yearly basis.

Individual herders don't think about what to eat or drink next year, or how many cattle or sheep they will raise.
As a 'group', a tribe doesn't consider where to graze its livestock next year, or whether to fight with a neighbor.

Even the supreme rulers of the grasslands, such as the Xiongnu Chanyu, did not think about things too far in the future.

If you've had a good year, then make the most of it.

Let's talk about next year's problems next year.

At worst, they could steal, rob, fight a war with the Han people, or make the tribes under their control pay more tribute.

The concepts of slow and steady progress, long-term goals, and lofty ideals simply cannot gain a foothold in the simple minds of nomadic people.

For a civilization, this is undoubtedly a tragedy.

This is especially tragic for the Huns, one of only two super-powerful civilizations in the world today.

But as the saying goes: their hero is my enemy.

The tragedy of the Xiongnu was undoubtedly the fortune of the Han Dynasty.

Once upon a time, the Xiongnu Chanyu Laoshang displayed the wisdom and long-term vision that a 'wise ruler of China' should possess, causing great concern among the Han people.

Fortunately, the barren soil of the grassland can only support one old Shangji porridge.

Whether it is the present-day Junchen, the future Yizhixie, or even future generations of Xiongnu Chanyu—on the grasslands, there will never again be a second Shangjizhou Chanyu to 'plan for ten thousand generations' for the Xiongnu people and the nomadic people of the grasslands.

What's even more problematic is that everything is subject to comparison.

—Luan Di Modu, the founding emperor of the Xiongnu, was at least militarily on par with Liu Bang, the wise and powerful Emperor Gaozu of Han.

The Xiongnu's "Emperor Wen" Lao Shangji Zhou was all-encompassing and without any blind spots, forming a rivalry with Emperor Taizong of Han, Liu Heng.

By the third generation of both sides, Emperor Jing of Han, Liu Qi, was generally regarded as a "mediocre ruler" and a "ruler who maintained the status quo," but in terms of overall ability and achievements, he was still quite capable.

In contrast, the Xiongnu Chanyu Junchen only managed to fight to a standstill against Emperor Jing of Han by relying on the legacy of his father and grandfather, the valuable wealth and powerful strength left behind.

Now, it has reached the fourth generation in the true sense for both sides.

The Xiongnu were still in the late period of the third generation of Chanyu Junchen. The next generation would most likely be the eagle-eyed and wolf-like Luan Di Yizhixie, who had the heroic spirit of Modu Chanyu, but almost no wisdom of the old Chanyu.

The Han family, on the other hand, was led by Liu Rong.

Emperor Rong, who came from later generations, may not have been as ambitious as Emperor Wu of Han in history, but his overall abilities, legitimacy, and foundation far surpassed those of Emperor Wu of Han.

In this generation, the Han and Xiongnu sides will inevitably be able to determine a victor and fight it out.

Moreover, the scales of victory visibly tipped in favor of the Han people.

Looking at the history of civilization development of both the Han and Xiongnu, the past fifty or sixty years of the Han dynasty have been a history of rapid development from weakness to strength, from poverty to prosperity, and from a state of utter ruin to one of utter prosperity.

The Xiongnu, on the other hand, started from an extremely high point and reached their peak during the reign of the old Chanyu. By the time Junchen Chanyu succeeded to the throne, the Xiongnu had already begun their decline.

The Han people were moving upwards, while the Xiongnu were moving downwards.

Furthermore, the difference in the stages of civilization between the two sides meant that the outcome of their fierce battle was already predetermined.

Interestingly, under the leadership of Emperor Liu Rong of the Han Dynasty, the officials and ministers of the Han Dynasty actually held a unique discussion.

The topic of discussion is: From the perspective of the Xiongnu Chanyu court, how should we make the nomadic people stronger?

The strength here is clearly not the fleeting military power of the Xiongnu over the past few decades, but rather the comprehensive strength that is all-encompassing, comprehensive, and sustainable, like that of the Qin Dynasty in the past and the Han Dynasty today.

What impressed Liu Rong most during that discussion was the argument of Zhao Yu, a representative figure of the Legalist school.

In Zhao Yu's view, the Xiongnu people today are like a blank sheet of paper in terms of culture.

The accumulation of culture requires the sedimentation of time.

Therefore, in Zhao Yu's view, the only way for the Xiongnu people, who could not accumulate enough cultural heritage in a short period of time to support the progress of civilization, to become a comprehensive power like the Chinese dynasty was to start with the construction of the rule of law.

By building the rule of law, we can forcefully accelerate the civilization process of nomadic peoples. Based on the principle that "when the granaries are full, people know etiquette; when they are well-fed and clothed, they know honor and shame," we can reverse the traditional path to achieve the goal of "knowing the severity of the law and thus being guided by benevolence and righteousness."

Liu Rong inquired further, and Zhao Yu added: The short-sightedness of nomadic peoples needs to be gradually shattered through strict laws.

Once the nomadic people have developed the awareness that "doing this is absolutely wrong" and "the punishment for doing this is extremely severe," then through laws and regulations, they should be forced to accept long-term planning.

Such as personal livestock career planning, family wealth planning, family member planning, and family structure adjustment;

Such as the nomadic routes of tribes, the composition of tribes, and the construction of military, equipment, and logistical support systems;

For example, there's the national strategy at the Shanyu court level, and so on.

Zhao Yu said that this was because the Xiongnu people—nomadic people—were mostly "unenlightened," and trying to make them understand the meaning of "one who does not plan for the long term cannot plan for the short term" was no easier than talking to a brick wall.

Therefore, the best approach is to not explain, but simply use legal means to force them to comply.

Once they've implemented it and seen the results for themselves, there's no need for further explanation.

From Zhao Yu's words, Liu Rong could easily conclude that after Qin unified the world, the First Emperor adopted this Legalist suggestion and used the brutal method of "implementation whether understood or not" to force the people of the world to accept the Qin court's command.

However, it is obvious that this approach will not work in China.

Because the Chinese people, even those who are illiterate and cannot read a single character, can never be considered as fools who are 'unenlightened'.

Thousands of years of cultural accumulation have allowed every Chinese person born on their ancestral land to be immersed in a rich cultural atmosphere.

Even if they could never understand the books of sages in their lifetime, and their descendants could never produce a single literate person, the Chinese people could still draw upon a profound cultural heritage from the social atmosphere and customs that nomadic civilizations could never achieve.

Even peddlers and laborers, butchers and dog slaughterers, still have a heart full of righteousness;

Even soldiers, those who carry loads on their shoulders and in their hands, have their own set of values.

This is something nomadic people can never learn or imitate.

As for the final outcome of that discussion, it was Emperor Liu Rong who made the final judgment from the grand perspective of a time traveler.

Without a thousand years or more of orderly cultural accumulation, and the emergence of three to five consecutive, or even seven to eight, "old chieftains," nomadic civilizations would never be able to enter the next stage of human civilization.

That is, the transformation from a loose tribal slave alliance to a centralized feudal dynasty.

Of course, there is another possibility: after Chinese civilization entered a higher stage of civilization, the civilizations of the surrounding pan-Chinese civilization sphere may also have been forcibly elevated to the level of feudal dynasties.

But this is like the kings and dukes of later times—even if their cultural systems were advanced enough in the pre-Christian era, they were still incredibly backward in the new era more than two thousand years later.

In short, the advancement or obsolescence of a civilization's progress is often determined through horizontal comparison.

In this ancient era before Christ, even though Chinese civilization was only in the early stages of feudal civilization, it was still able to deliver a devastating blow to the nomadic peoples of the grasslands who were still living in a slave society.

In later generations, although the countries in the Pan-Chinese sphere in Southeast Asia finally reached the stage of 'feudal dynasties' civilization, they were still completely suppressed by the new China, which had already entered a higher stage of civilization.

In conclusion, the current problem is extremely difficult for the Xiongnu.

Moreover, it is not a methodological problem, but a problem of the institutional structure of the Xiongnu, and even the entire nomadic civilization.

The food shortage that occurred in the Munan region is merely a manifestation of this backward civilization system at a specific point in time.

The purpose was to remind the nomads: you have fallen behind.

If we don't change and make progress, we're doomed.

Unfortunately, neither the current Chanyu Luan Di Junchen nor the prospective next Chanyu Luan Di Yizhixie in the current Xiongnu Chanyu court are the decisive figures capable of 'planning for ten thousand generations' for the nomadic people like the old Chanyu Shang Jizhou.

In Junchen's view, this year's food shortage is the problem for this year.

If this problem is solved, this year will be easier; if it isn't, then this year will be difficult.

In any case, once this year is over, everything will return to normal.

Yi Zhixie might have a longer-term vision, perhaps thinking that the problems that arose this year will also occur in the future.

After all, the Hexi and Hetao regions were not merely borrowed by the Han dynasty for a year, but were essentially taken away permanently.

The Han dynasty's strength was such that nomadic tribes could not gain any advantage from the northern border of Han. This was not a one-year trial period for the Han dynasty, but a strategic advantage that could continue to exist for a considerable period of time in the foreseeable future.

Even realizing this, Yizhixie still couldn't understand: this was not a coincidence, nor was it because the Xiongnu were unlucky enough to lose the Hetao and Hexi regions;
It is something that will inevitably happen, and will happen sooner or later, under the current political and civilized system of the grasslands.

As long as the root cause of the problem remains unknown, Yi Zhixie will never be able to solve it at its source.

Whether Yizhixie is the current Right Wise King or the future Xiongnu Chanyu.

The two may be very different.

However, in this matter, the difference is negligible and negligible, amounting to a minuscule discrepancy that cannot affect the final outcome...
(End of this chapter)