My life is like walking on thin ice

Chapter 560 An unexpected surprise
In most cases, the aristocratic class betting on the heir apparent was like a real professional gamble—requiring extensive data analysis to arrive at the most probable outcome.

For example, during the reign of Emperor Taizu Gao, the court and the people inside and outside the court unanimously recognized and insisted on supporting Emperor Xiaohui, which was not essentially because "I want him to be the crown prince";
Rather, I believe he has the best chance of becoming the heir apparent, which is why I firmly support him.

Because Emperor Hui was the eldest son of the legitimate wife, he had Empress Lü Zhi to rely on, and the Lü clan, who had made outstanding contributions during the founding of the Han Dynasty, served as his support.

Among the assessments of the court officials, meritorious nobles, and relatives at the time, Emperor Xiaohui was the most beneficial choice for Emperor Gaozu Liu Bang in terms of the stability of the ancestral temple and the state.

In contrast, Liu Ruyi, the Prince of Zhao, is a very obvious low-probability, high-risk choice.

During the reign of Emperor Taizong Xiaowen, after evaluation, the court and the public also concluded that "the eldest son, Liu Qi, has a greater probability of becoming the heir apparent."

The core evaluation criterion in the two assessments above—which identified Emperor Xiaohui and Emperor Xiaojing as having the highest probability of being established as heirs—is the summary of the primogeniture system: if there is a legitimate heir, then the legitimate heir should be established; if there is no legitimate heir, then the eldest son should be established.

Without the primogeniture system and the saying "If there is a legitimate son, establish him; if there is no legitimate son, establish the eldest son," during the reign of Emperor Gaozu, not only would some people mistakenly believe that Prince Zhao Yin, Liu Ruyi, had a better chance—some might even have bet on Prince Qi Daohui, Liu Fei!
During the reign of Emperor Taizong, not only some people believed that Prince Huai of Liang, Liu Yi, was Emperor Taizong's final choice—some might even have bet on Prince Xiao of Liang, Liu Wu, or even Prince Xiao of Dai, Liu Can, who had no historical presence!

The most typical and representative example of this kind of thing is actually the attitude of people inside and outside the court towards the succession of the late emperor during the reign of the late emperor.

—After Emperor Taizong passed away and Emperor Xiaojing ascended the throne, all attention, both inside and outside the court, was focused on Liu Rong, the eldest son of the late emperor.

Because if there is a legitimate heir, the eldest son should be chosen; if there is no legitimate heir, the eldest son should be chosen.

Since the late emperor had no legitimate son and it was impossible for him to have one, Liu Rong, as the eldest son born out of wedlock, naturally became the most likely candidate for crown prince.

However, an unexpected little incident changed the course of Liu Rong's 'market value'.

Princess Guantao, Liu Piao, pleaded with Consort Li, Liu Rong's birth mother, but was refused. From then on, Liu Rong lost—or at least theoretically lost—the support of the Crown Prince's mother.

This brought about a crucial turning point and a significant change in the outcome of what was originally a close call.

Even today, people inside and outside the court are still discussing that a very important reason why Empress Dowager Dou had a "sudden inspiration" to make Liu Wu, the Prince of Liang, the Crown Prince was because Consort Li rejected the marriage proposal from Princess Guantao, Liu Piao.

If Consort Li had not refused Liu Piao, and the Tangyi Marquis family had successfully formed a marriage alliance with the current Liu Rong, thus fulfilling Empress Dowager Dou's wish, then it would have been impossible for Empress Dowager Dou to have the strange idea of ​​having a crown prince.

After Empress Dowager Dou was satisfied with marrying her beloved granddaughter Chen Ajiao to the future crown prince of the Han Dynasty, there was no way to cause any further trouble.

It was precisely because this wish was not fulfilled that Empress Dowager Dou became angry and, in retaliation, gave birth to the Crown Prince, the Imperial Younger Brother.

At that time, Empress Dowager Dou's general thoughts were probably: You, Liu Rong, won't marry my precious Ajiao, yet you still want to be the crown prince?
snort!
Then I'll show you just how much absolute power I, the Empress Dowager of the Eastern Palace, have in the matter of appointing the Crown Prince!

Today, all of this has vanished like smoke, long since disappeared under the rolling wheels of history.

However, both inside and outside the court, all the officials who were already in the court at that time, as well as the vast majority of nobles, had many complaints about the current Empress Dowager Li because of what happened back then.

—What kind of fancy tricks are you trying to pull!
—It almost caused a change in the already decided bet, making us almost guess the wrong person and bet on the wrong thing!

Moreover, the reason why officials, nobles and relatives of meritorious officials both inside and outside the court have such complaints is almost entirely unrelated to Liu Rong at present.

Rather, it was the primal resentment that the aristocratic class harbored towards a fool who had once 'spontaneously devised a plan' and nearly threatened their family.

This resentment won't have any immediate impact.

After all, since this resentment was not directed at Liu Rong, it would not affect Liu Rong's control of the government;

With Empress Dowager Dou still alive, Empress Dowager Li had no chance of wielding real power.

However, in the future, when Empress Dowager Dou passes away and Empress Dowager Li attempts to seize power and do something, this resentment will cause an unconscious, instinctive resistance throughout the court and beyond.

—The betting on the crown prince is a cycle that repeats itself time and time again.

In the previous cycle, Empress Dowager Li caused unexpected trouble, almost causing many noble families to bet on the wrong horse and choose the wrong side, just like in history, thus ruining the political careers of their entire families.

Given such an unstable factor with a 'previous record,' both inside and outside the court will undoubtedly take strict precautions in the next cycle, doing everything possible to prevent the Empress Dowager from 'manipulating' the new cycle and causing unnecessary changes.

Moreover, the previous gamble, namely the entire process of Liu Rong being established as the crown prince and ascending the throne, has also given the Han court and the noble class a new perspective on this gamble.

For the aristocratic class, this gamble naturally involves first determining who has the highest probability of becoming the crown prince, and then betting on that candidate.

Normally, this judgment of 'highest probability' requires the broad consensus of most members of the aristocratic class.

For example, back then, before Consort Li rejected Liu Piao's marriage proposal, almost everyone in the aristocratic class believed that Liu Rong becoming the crown prince was a foregone conclusion.

Everyone's saying that, so that's basically the situation.

However, Liu Rongxian became the most valuable bet, and later, due to his mother Empress Dowager Li's questionable actions, doubts arose both inside and outside the court. Ultimately, he relied on his own abilities to truly become the crown prince and successfully inherit the throne.

This process prompted reflection both inside and outside the Han court: betting on the crown prince was not necessarily limited to 'choosing the one with the highest probability'.

In certain extreme cases, especially when the situation is unclear and the 'most probable' outcome is uncertain, the aristocratic class can choose the one with the most advantageous status and the greatest ability.

For example, during the reign of the late emperor, Liu Rong was the eldest son of the emperor and had considerable abilities.

Once you've chosen this target, you should do your best to help it, so that this promising candidate becomes someone with a very high probability of being chosen as heir apparent—this is also a viable path.

Back then, very few people did this.

—During the most difficult period for Liu Rong, when he was least favored by the court and the public, there were very few noble families with such courage.

But every single one of these families has reaped extremely rich rewards since Liu Rong ascended the throne.

It's not just about gold, jade, and a fiefdom, or even the favor shown to Liu Rong; it's about Liu Rong providing these "meritorious officials who followed him to the throne" with more opportunities, almost without regard to cost or gain.

An opportunity to distinguish oneself on the battlefield;
An opportunity to hold an important position in the imperial court;

Of course, this also includes the opportunity for these noble families to remain prominent and prominent for a long time.

As the saying goes, it's easy to add flowers to brocade, but difficult to provide charcoal in the snow.

The same principle applies to the special gamble of betting on the crown prince.

The one with the highest probability of being chosen is at most an "icing on the cake"—after all, that person already has a high probability of becoming the crown prince, so having one more or one less makes no difference.

Remembering your favors is merely a matter of reciprocity and for show. The genuine gratitude and appreciation shown towards you are, if not nonexistent, very little.

However, any support given to a prince who is neither in question in terms of status nor ability, but whose chances of being established as heir apparent are greatly reduced due to certain reasons, is something that should be remembered forever and repaid with all efforts.

For example, during the reign of Emperor Xiaowen of the Taizong Emperor, Liu Yi, the Prince of Liang, became increasingly powerful, while Liu Qi, the Crown Prince, became increasingly unstable and was even once considered by public opinion to be "deposed sooner or later".

For example, during the reign of the late emperor, Liu Rong, the current emperor, was considered by both inside and outside the court to be "unable to pass the test of the Crown Prince" because Consort Li refused to marry Princess Guantao, Liu Piao.

Are you saying that the former emperor Liu Qi and the current emperor Liu Rong were really 'almost impossible to become the crown prince and ascend the throne'?
Actually, it's not that surprising.

Both father and son were chosen as the second choice to fall back on the 'primogeniture system' because the reigning emperor had no legitimate son and it was impossible for him to have one.

If these two individuals cannot become crown princes or ascend the throne, then the primogeniture system becomes meaningless.

Just as in history, Emperor Jing of Han deposed Crown Prince Liu Rong and established his tenth son Liu Che as heir, which dealt an unprecedented blow to the primogeniture system.

Even though Emperor Jing of Han packaged Liu Che, the tenth son of the emperor, as the 'eldest son of the legitimate wife,' it did not affect the influence of the primogeniture system on the Han dynasty after Emperor Jing's reign—especially in terms of imperial succession, it was no longer an indisputable ironclad rule.

From a certain perspective, the witchcraft incident that occurred during the reign of Emperor Wu of Han—the death of Crown Prince Liu Ju—may not have been due to the immense sense of crisis brought about by his father Liu Che's ascension to the throne as neither the eldest son nor the legitimate heir.

Before Liu Che, the Han dynasty almost never violated the primogeniture system.

Emperor Gaozu of Han, Liu Bang, had only one legitimate son, Liu Ying. So no matter how much he disliked or hated Liu Ying, or how much he worried about Liu Ying's maternal relatives, the Lü clan, Emperor Gaozu of Han ultimately still made Liu Ying Emperor Xiaohui.
Since Liu Ying had no legitimate heir, he established his eldest son, Liu Gong, as heir.
Emperor Taizong had no legitimate heir, so he established Liu Qi as the theoretical eldest son of the legitimate wife, but in reality the eldest son of a concubine. Even though Liu Qi was eccentric and unruly at the time, and had already become a chess player, he still did not easily give up on cultivating Liu Qi.

Ultimately, the father and son worked together to bring about the prosperous reigns of Emperors Wen and Jing.

Leaving aside Empress Lü's deposition of the former young emperor and subsequent ascension to the throne as the second young emperor Liu Hong, and Emperor Taizong Liu Heng who entered Chang'an after the Lü Clan Rebellion—aside from these two extreme exceptions, the Han dynasty, from its founding to Emperor Wu of Han, consistently adhered to the primogeniture system, always upholding the principle of 'if there is a legitimate heir, establish the legitimate heir; if there is no legitimate heir, establish the eldest son.'

If this situation does not change, then no matter how worried Crown Prince Liu Ju is, he may eventually force himself to calm down.

Liu Ju would tell himself: It's okay, don't be afraid;
I am the eldest son by the legitimate wife;
He is the only legitimate son of the Emperor;
I need to stay calm and steady...

However, with the precedent set by Emperor Wu of Han, who, as the tenth son of the emperor, successfully became the crown prince and eventually inherited the throne, Crown Prince Li could no longer remain calm.

If Emperor Wu of Han could do it, so could Liu Fuling!

If Wang Zhi could secure the position of crown prince, and even emperor, for her son, Lady Zhao of Gouyi could do the same!

As for legitimate and illegitimate children?

Oh;
Emperor Wu of Han was born out of wedlock, but was later artificially transformed into the 'son of the empress'. Why couldn't Liu Fuling be the son of the 'Empress Gouyi'?

At a time when both Empress Dowager Dou and Empress Dowager Wang had passed away, deposing the empresses and establishing new ones, thus creating a legitimate heir, was merely a matter of issuing an imperial edict for Emperor Wu of Han at that time...

That's why Liu Rong said: Emperor Xiaojing was only the 'legitimate son' in theory, but in reality he was still the eldest son of Emperor Taizong by a concubine.

Because the creation of a legitimate heir is essentially the emperor breaking the primogeniture system, breaking the generally accepted value system of "establishing the legitimate heir if there is one, and establishing the eldest son if there is no legitimate heir," and establishing a younger son as a concubine's son as the last fig leaf he has torn for himself.

Look!
—Although the son I have chosen is not the eldest son, he is still the legitimate son!
—I still insist on the primogeniture system of succession!
But in reality, with such a process for creating legitimate heirs, it's as if anyone can become a legitimate heir.

Even if it's just a pretext, as long as the emperor is determined to make you the eldest son, he can find a way to secure your status as the legitimate heir.

However, this self-deceptive approach can only fool oneself, and cannot fool the world at all.

It was for these same reasons that Liu Rong openly revealed his intentions to the court and the public at the same time his first son, Liu Xuan, was born.

The eldest son of a concubine will not be the heir apparent!
I don't care at all whether my eldest son, born of a concubine, is virtuous or foolish, wise or stupid;
Just because he is the eldest son of a concubine rather than the eldest son of the legitimate wife, I am going to directly deny the eldest son's eligibility to compete for the throne!

Therefore, Liu Rong rejected the option of "establishing the eldest son if there is no legitimate heir" early on, and the only way for the Han dynasty to pass on the throne in the next cycle was to establish the legitimate heir if there was one.

From now on, the powerful nobles and relatives both inside and outside the court will no longer need to worry about which young master to bet on.

—Just wait patiently until Empress Cao Shu gives birth to an heir, and then bet on Cao Shu's eldest son, who will be the future eldest son of the Han dynasty.

However, this also presents a hidden danger.

In other words, the Cao family of Pingyang Marquis, having confirmed that they could become the maternal relatives of the future emperor, might become complacent and overconfident.

But just as Liu Rong was beginning to worry about this, an unexpected joy arrived.

—Cao Shi, the fourth-generation Marquis of Pingyang, requested an audience outside Weiyang Palace.

(End of this chapter)