My life is like walking on thin ice

Chapter 578 Outlook
In summary, after five years as emperor and eight years in power, Liu Rong achieved a level of civil and military prowess, both domestically and internationally, that most emperors in the feudal era could never reach in their entire lives.

With such outstanding results, it's understandable that Liu Rong would be complacent.

Of course;
Despite feeling elated, Liu Rong only enjoyed the moment inwardly.

After the smugness subsides, it's natural to get back on track.

—The summary and analysis of the past eight years have been completed, and the gains and losses have been roughly sorted out.

His grades are outstanding, his achievements are remarkable, and he has no noteworthy faults.

So next, we need to shift our focus from past successes to the future that is yet to come.

It has only been five years since the late emperor passed away when Liu Rong was nineteen years old.

Even though Liu Rong already held great power and ruled the world, he was only twenty-four years old.

Liu Rong never expected that he could live to be seventy or eighty years old under the high-pressure working conditions of an emperor.

They didn't even dare to hope to live to the age of Emperor Taizu Liu Bang, who was sixty-two.

In Liu Rong's view, most of the time, it was not necessarily a good thing for feudal emperors to live too long.

The lessons of history are profound and numerous.

For example, Emperor Wu of Han, Liu Che, was ambitious in his early years, powerful in his middle age, but extremely muddle-headed in his later years, almost causing the downfall of the Han Dynasty.

For example, the first half of Emperor Xuanzong's life was like a cheat code, while the second half was like being entrusted with a government position.

Even as a time traveler, Liu Rong couldn't say for sure what his later years would be like—especially as he entered old age, whether he would become senile.

Therefore, according to Liu Rong's expectations, it would be best if he could live to the age of Emperor Taizong Xiaowen, passing away in his late forties or nearly fifty.

—In my fifties, I am about to enter my later years, but I am not yet completely worse off than in my later years;
At an age when he's about to become senile, going underground to be senile with the late emperors—Emperor Taizu and Emperor Taizong—would be the most suitable thing to do.

Liu Rong is only twenty-four years old now. If you count on your fingers, there are still more than twenty years until he turns fifty. He has plenty of time to accomplish most of what he has planned to do.

Furthermore, the eldest son of the emperor's concubine has already been born.

If the heavens are kind, the eldest son of the emperor will be born into this world in just a few years.

Therefore, when Liu Rong passes away, the crown prince who will inherit the throne will at least be able to come of age, even if he cannot inherit the throne in his thirties like the late Emperor Xiaojing, when he is fully capable of ruling. This will prevent a situation where the emperor is young and the country is in turmoil, with the empress dowager temporarily in charge of the government.

Although Liu Rong could not control his own lifespan—he could neither guarantee that he would live to be fifty, nor could he hang himself in his fifties—he could use this as a benchmark to plan the rest of his imperial career.

Let's assume Liu Rong can live for another twenty years or so;

Over the past twenty years, Liu Rong has done relatively few things—just a handful that can be made public.

But these 'few things' are all very general and enormous.

Each of these points, taken individually, has its own merits and implications; when assigned to specific individuals, they can keep subordinates busy.

Broadly speaking, they can be mainly divided into two categories: internal and external.

Externally, it is mainly subdivided into the following categories according to direction.

—In the north and northwest directions, defeat and drive out the Xiongnu in the north, severely damage the nomadic peoples, and eliminate external strategic threats;
—In the northeast direction, occupy and control the Korean Peninsula in Northeast China, consolidate the territory in Northeast China, and digest the black soil of Northeast China;

—To the southwest, to connect with and educate the various ethnic groups in the southwest, paving the way for the Chinese civilization to absorb these ethnic groups a hundred years later;
—In the south and southeast, strive to incorporate the Lingnan region into the Han Dynasty's territory, and transform the Lingnan Baiyue from tributary states and foreign states into subordinate vassal states.

Na.

The word "external" forms the main category, which is further subdivided into external things in various directions. In short, there are four subcategories: northern nomadic peoples, the Korean Peninsula in the Northeast, the various ethnic groups in the Southwest, and the Baiyue people in the South.

It sounds easy, but when it comes to actually doing it, it's not just a matter of talking.

For example, the Xiongnu, since the Han Dynasty, have almost always ridden on the head of the Han people, defecating and urinating, acting arrogantly and domineeringly for as long as fifty years!

Although the Han dynasty won three major battles in the past five years, greatly weakening the Xiongnu's strategic advantage and even reversing the strategic situation of both sides, the war between the Han and the Xiongnu has undoubtedly become a protracted war and a war of attrition after the Xiongnu decided to shift their strategic focus westward to the Western Regions.

In the short term, it will be difficult for the Han and Xiongnu to engage in another war like the Battle of Hetao-Mayi or the Battle of Gaoque, in which one side can quickly win and achieve significant strategic results.

In the future, the normal course of war between the Han and the Xiongnu will most likely be unplanned, unprepared, and without clear strategic or tactical objectives, occurring along the Western Regions-Hexi Corridor line.

Even if we lose, there won't be any strategic losses, just troop casualties.

Even if we win, we won't gain any strategic benefits; we'll only inflict casualties on the enemy forces.

Unless in a war one side kills or wounds tens of thousands, or even hundreds of thousands, of enemy troops with an extremely low casualty ratio, it is possible to rewrite the strategic situation between the Han and Xiongnu through a single battle.

Apart from that, both sides could only instinctively occupy some cities in the Western Regions and connect them into a region.

Then they sent out patrols, probed and expanded, and repeatedly engaged in skirmishes.

Historically, after Wei Qing and Huo Qubing, the Han and Xiongnu fought a protracted battle in the Western Regions, which eventually resulted in both sides suffering heavy losses.

The Xiongnu were severely weakened and no longer had the power to dominate the grasslands, eventually splitting up over time.

Some ventured westward into Europe and became the so-called Attila the Scourge of God;
Some remained on the grasslands, hiding in the northern desert and eating sand;

There were also those who recognized the times, such as Huhanye Chanyu, who eventually submitted to the Han Dynasty.

If the Xiongnu were like this, the Han dynasty wasn't much better off.

— He allowed General Li Guangli to waste more than ten or twenty years fighting the Xiongnu in the Western Regions, and even suffered several defeats.
In addition, Emperor Wu of Han's own material desires led to the complete depletion of the Han family's originally substantial wealth.

By the end of the reign of Emperor Wu of Han, the people of the world had completely calmed down from the fervor of Emperor Wu's "driving the Xiongnu northward".

You have to stay calm!

People are starving! The voices of 'national hatred and family feuds' are becoming less and less, while the voices of 'militarism and aggression' are becoming more and more, to the point that in the end, peasant uprisings began to break out one after another.

Left with no other choice, Emperor Wu of Han ultimately had to issue the first imperial edict of self-reproach in Chinese history: the "Luntai Edict," to acknowledge his mistakes, propose specific solutions to rectify them, and apologize to the people.

With this unprecedented move of 'the emperor issuing an edict to repent,' coupled with the heavy weight Emperor Taizong Xiaowen carried in the hearts of the people, the budding peasant uprising was nipped in the bud.

In the current timeline, the Han dynasty under Liu Rong's control has essentially fast-forwarded history several decades into the original timeline thanks to three major victories.

The final result, while not quite reaching the point in history where General Ershi made a mess of things, leading Emperor Wu of Han to lament on his deathbed that "Li Guangli was an amateur," was certainly going to be a protracted war of attrition.

Liu Rong hadn't figured out how to solve this problem, or rather, he didn't have a good solution.

We can only hope that as time goes by, Wei Qing and Huo Qubing, these two brilliant minds, will grow up and be able to come up with a relatively feasible and cost-effective solution.

However, there is no doubt that, given the current situation, it will be very difficult for Liu Rong to completely drive the Xiongnu to Europe or to cause internal division within the steppe within about twenty years.

—At most, they would have reduced the Xiongnu to the Donghu people of the Qin Dynasty, and they would still exist as the overlords of the grasslands, only they wouldn't dare to graze their horses in the south.

If the Xiongnu in the north were like this, the other directions would also be equally difficult to deal with.

The situation on the Korean Peninsula to the northeast is very complicated.

On this land, there once existed the last royal family of the Shang Dynasty: the Gija Joseon Dynasty founded by Gija.

During the Warring States period, Gija Joseon and Jinbeon both surrendered to the then-Yan state.

After Qin unified China and the Yan state was destroyed, Gija Joseon had not even had a chance to submit to Ying Zheng before Qin Er Shi (the second emperor of Qin) came to an end.

Then, at the beginning of the Han Dynasty, Zang Tu, a prince of a different surname and the King of Yan, rebelled and was defeated. His general, Wei Man, a man from Yan, fled east to the Korean Peninsula and was taken in by the temporarily independent Gija Joseon regime.

Subsequently, Wiman usurped the throne, launched a coup, overthrew Gija Joseon, and established himself as king on the former territory of Gija Joseon, thus establishing the Wiman Joseon regime.

Wiman Joseon, also known as Wiman Joseon.

After declaring himself king, Wiman successively annexed the territories of five other kingdoms on the Korean Peninsula: Goguryeo, Jinbeon, Imdon, Okjeo, and Buyeo. His territory spanned thousands of miles, and he had already occupied more than half of the northern half of the Korean Peninsula!
As for Gija Joseon king Gijun, who was usurped by Wiman, he fled south to Mahan and declared himself king of Han.

Not long after, with Gijun dying without an heir, Gijun Korea effectively ceased to exist. The Mahan people then established the Jinhan regime in the southern half of the Korean Peninsula, excluding the northern half occupied by Wiman Joseon...

Even today, the situation on the Korean Peninsula appears to be a balance of power between the Wiman Joseon in the north and the Jinhan in the south, but there are still many dependent regimes between and within the two.

Although the two sides belong to opposing camps, they are also intertwined with each other.

—There were many related parties between the vassal states of Wiman Joseon and Jinhan.

Therefore, neither side can gain the upper hand in terms of strength, and in terms of operational skills, it is almost impossible for them to fight.

The Han dynasty's attitude towards the situation on the Korean Peninsula was also complex and tangled.

—From a legal perspective, the Jinhan regime, which now occupies the southern half of the Korean Peninsula, originated from the Mahan regime of Gijun, and can be traced back to the original Gija Joseon.

Gija Joseon was a 'legitimate regime' founded by Gija, the uncle of King Zhou of Shang, and recognized and officially recognized by King Wen of Zhou, the founding monarch of the Zhou Dynasty.

Given the current political characterization of the Han dynasty as "not recognizing the legitimacy of Qin, but only acknowledging its own inheritance of the Zhou dynasty's legal system," the Han dynasty should also recognize the legitimacy of Gija Joseon, which was recognized by the Zhou dynasty.

Wiman Joseon, which destroyed Gija Joseon, usurped the throne, and established itself as king, was naturally a traitor and remnant of a rebellion that the Han Dynasty could not tolerate, as a general under the traitor Zang Tu.

From this perspective, the Han Chinese attitude toward the Korean Peninsula should be: firmly recognize the legitimacy of Gija Joseon, Mahan, and the current Jinhan regime, and resolutely deny the legitimacy of the Wiman Joseon regime.

But the key issue is that Chenhan, which the Han dynasty should recognize, is located in the southern half of the Korean Peninsula and is not within the Han dynasty's territory—or even directly borders the main body of the Asian continent.

On the contrary, Wiman Joseon, whose legitimacy should be denied by the Han dynasty, occupied the northern half of the Korean Peninsula and became a roadblock to the Han dynasty and Jinhan.

This means that in practical terms, if the Han Chinese show too much hostility towards the 'illegitimate regime' Wiman Joseon, it could very well provoke Wiman Joseon into taking desperate measures.

When Wiman Joseon invaded the Yan state from the west, the Han people were not afraid.

—Now that the Han dynasty is not even afraid of the Xiongnu, why would it be afraid of Wiman Joseon?
What I fear most is that Wiman Joseon wouldn't dare to provoke the Han Dynasty, so it would turn around and give Jinhan in the southern peninsula a sound beating, or even destroy Jinhan, thus unifying the Korean Peninsula!

If that were the case, the Korean Peninsula, unified by Wiman Joseon, would become another extremely troublesome Lingnan Baiyue region for the Han people.

In addition, over the past few decades, the Han people have always adhered to the principle of "forbearance," putting everything else aside and prioritizing only development and fighting the Xiongnu.
As for the Korean Peninsula in the northeast, the various ethnic groups in the southwest, and the Baiyue people in the south, the Han dynasty temporarily set them aside.

More than fifty years have passed. Wiman has long since turned to dust, and the Wiman Joseon regime has already passed down to Wiman's grandsons.

It's somewhat unreasonable to bring up the past of Wiman Joseon being "Zang Tu's former subordinates and remnants of rebellion".

Why didn't you do this sooner?

The combination of so many complex reasons has led to the current predicament on the Korean Peninsula, a situation that is difficult to resolve.

Let's fight with force.

The Xiongnu in the north were not extinct yet, and the Han dynasty could not possibly shift its strategic focus to the icy and snowy northeast. At most, it would send a few thousand men to flex its muscles.

However, if they don't fight, Wiman's wolfish ambitions will be exposed again, and Jin-Han will be trapped at the end of the peninsula, surrounded by the sea on three sides, with no help in sight.

To put it bluntly, the Han dynasty had the capability to conquer the Korean Peninsula and the strength to destroy Wiman Joseon, but the current global situation meant that the Korean Peninsula was not strategically important to the Han dynasty enough to warrant sending tens of thousands of troops to fight it.

Just like the Baiyue people in the south—if it really comes down to war, it's not that we can't fight them, nor that we can't conquer them;

It's just not worth it; it would cost a lot of money and cause a lot of deaths—many people would die unnatural deaths, not on the battlefield.

Furthermore, since we share the same ancestry and are all people of the Xia dynasty, there is no need to resort to force as long as there is an opportunity for peaceful unification.

The same applies to the Korean Peninsula—it's not that it's impossible to fight or conquer, but rather that if force is used, it will result in enormous non-combat, unnecessary casualties and losses.

(End of this chapter)