My life is like walking on thin ice

Chapter 583 The Hun with Clear Eyes
After determining the Han Dynasty's strategic focus for the next few years, Liu Rong quickly came up with specific plans.

The Xiongnu were once a major threat to the Han Dynasty!
To be honest, even now—even after the Battle of Chaona, the Battle of Hetao-Mayi, and the Battle of Gaoque, which successfully reversed the strategic positions of both sides—the Xiongnu are still the primary external enemy that the Han Dynasty cannot ignore.

But Liu Rong clearly realized that the three battles at Chaona, Hetao-Mayi, and Gaoque had made the Xiongnu people clear-headed and completely calm down.

Before Liu Rong ascended the throne, the Xiongnu people's attitude towards the Han Dynasty was to occasionally harass them and routinely raid the south, using the invasion of the Han Dynasty as a side activity.
After the Battle of Nachao, the Xiongnu, whose offensive was thwarted and who had never before failed to breach the gates of the Han Dynasty, not only did not sense anything amiss, but instead felt an unprecedented surge of anger.

—In the Battle of Chaona, the Han dynasty completely kept the Xiongnu outside its borders, preventing the Xiongnu from realizing the accumulation of strength over the past few decades and the rapid narrowing of the gap in overall military strength between the Han and the Xiongnu.

The Xiongnu people failed to realize that after decades of recuperation and enduring hardship, the Han dynasty had acquired the strength to defend the country and keep all foreign enemies out of its borders.

Think back to what the Xiongnu Chanyu's court did after the Han-Xiongnu War.
There was no surprise, and even less panic;

There was only anger.

The anger towards the Right Wise King Yizhixie for failing to conquer Chaonasai and for failing to lead his army into the heart of the Han territory, and towards the Han people for "not only refusing to surrender, but also daring to fight back."

Yizhixie suffered a setback at the Chanyu's court, and even within the Xiongnu, he experienced a severe crisis of trust and damage to his prestige.

Meanwhile, the Han people were also questioned by an envoy sent by the Xiongnu.

Yes, that's right.

After the Battle of Chaona, the Xiongnu not only showed no remorse for being a defeated nation, but also angrily sent an envoy to Chang'an to demand an explanation!

It was as if, in the eyes of the Xiongnu, the Han people should have failed to resist the Xiongnu invasion, or even should not have resisted at all.
It is as if the Han dynasty kept the Xiongnu outside the country's gates, not allowing them to invade Han territory and plunder Han people, which was an unforgivable sin.

From this point of view, it is not difficult to see that the Han-Xiongnu war in the eyes of the Xiongnu was not a case of the Han becoming stronger and the Xiongnu becoming relatively weaker.
It was only by sheer luck that the Han dynasty encountered the incompetent Yizhixie that they were able to preserve their borders.

Therefore, within the Xiongnu Chanyu's court, Yizhixie was utterly degraded—because this incompetent Right Wise King was so incompetent that he couldn't even pry open the gates of the Han Dynasty!
As for external relations, the Xiongnu, as always, held a superior position and accused the Han people of "daring to resist," especially since they had succeeded in their resistance.

Just as the Xiongnu people believed, the final result of the Han-Xiongnu war in Chaona was that the Xiongnu's invasion of the Han Dynasty failed, and that it was only because Yizhixie on their side made a mistake.
The Xiongnu people would handle Yizhixie's defeat internally, but the resistance from the Han people was a provocation against the supreme authority of the Xiongnu Empire!
Therefore, it can be said that the Han-Xiongnu war at Chaona did not allow the Xiongnu to realize that the strategic situation between the Han and Xiongnu had already undergone earth-shattering changes without their knowledge.

The Xiongnu people still rested on their ancestors' achievements and their own great strength, looking down on all those who dared to resist or obstruct them, venting their most irrational and unreasonable anger.

The situation only began to change slightly during Liu Rong's second battle after he ascended the throne.

—In the Battle of Hetao-Mayi, the Xiongnu Chanyu Luan Dijun personally led the main force of the Chanyu court southward to attack the Mayi line in Daibei, but failed!
At the same time, the Han dynasty used a strategy of "openly repairing the plank road while secretly crossing the Chencang pass." On the surface, they heavily guarded the Mayi defense line, but in secret, they mobilized troops and, without anyone noticing, snatched the Hetao region from the Xiongnu!
After this battle, the Xiongnu people finally began to show normal reactions.

If the defeat in the Battle of Chaona could be attributed to Ichisai's personal military incompetence, what about the Battle of Mayi-Hetao?
Even with Chanyu himself in command and all the main forces of the Chanyu court deployed, they still couldn't capture the small town of Mayi!
Does this mean that the defeat in the Battle of Chaona was not due to Ichisai's incompetence, but rather that the Han dynasty had indeed become stronger and more difficult to deal with than before?

This logic is easy to understand.

—If the Han-Xiongnu war was not due to the Han people becoming stronger, but rather to the incompetence of Yizhixie, which led to the Xiongnu's defeat;
So, the Chanyu who failed to make progress on the Mayi battlefield in a short period of time during the Battle of Hetao-Mayi was Yizhixie the Second!
The defeat in the Battle of Chaona was due to the incompetence of Yizhixie, while the defeat at the Mayi battlefield in the Hetao-Mayi campaign was due to the incompetence of Junchen Chanyu!
In addition, the focus of the Hetao-Mayi Campaign was not the Mayi battlefield, but the Hetao battlefield, which was easily captured by the Han people because the Xiongnu Chanyu court was distracted by the Mayi battlefield!
This means that, when considering the Han-Xiongnu War of Chaona and the Battle of Hetao-Mayi together, there are only two possible interpretations for the Xiongnu.

The first explanation is that either the Han people became stronger, or the Xiongnu people became weaker, or both occurred simultaneously. With the balance of power shifting, the gap between the two sides narrowed, making the Han people increasingly difficult to deal with.

The second explanation is that the Xiongnu were still powerful, while the Han people were still weak.

Given the clear disparity in strength, the defeat in the Battle of Asana was naturally due to Ichisai's personal incompetence.

Similarly, the defeat in the Battle of Hetao-Mayi was also due to the incompetence of the Xiongnu Chanyu, Luandi Junchen.

Moreover, unlike the Battle of Chaona, where Yizhixie merely failed to breach Chaona Fortress, Junchen Chanyu's 'incompetence' was undoubtedly far greater.

—The fact that he held the main force of the Chanyu Court but failed to make rapid progress on the Mayi battlefield and thus fail to return to the Hetao region in time is merely a military command error on the front line, and that is only one aspect.

Before the battle broke out, Junchen failed to see through or perceive the Han people's intentions, which ultimately led to the Han people taking the Hetao region with almost no effort. This was Junchen's real and huge mistake.

Strategic blunder!

This strategic mistake, in particular, not only led to the complete defeat of a battle, but also allowed the Han people, who were desperately short of warhorses, to take control of the Hetao region, a treasure trove for raising horses!
It was merely a strategic miscalculation, but its impact extends beyond the defeat in this battle to the future. The Han people will inevitably become stronger and less afraid of the Xiongnu.

In contrast, as time goes on, the Xiongnu will have fewer and fewer opportunities to use their cavalry to bully the Han people's cumbersome infantry.

It is no exaggeration to say that the Battle of Hetao-Mayi was a result of the Xiongnu Chanyu's erroneous strategic prediction, which ultimately led to the loss of Hetao and almost shook the fate of the Xiongnu Empire!
If future generations look back on this history of "the Han dynasty driving the barbarians and Xiongnu northward", they will surely regard the Han dynasty's capture of the Hetao region after the Battle of Hetao-Mayi as an important strategic turning point.

Therefore, after the Battle of Hetao-Mayi, the Xiongnu Chanyu Luan Di Junchen, like the Right Wise King Luan Di Yizhixie after the Battle of Chaona, suffered a severe crisis of trust within the Xiongnu and his prestige was seriously damaged.

Although Junchen ultimately stabilized the situation and nipped several successive coups in the bud, this process also presented a cruel reality to the Xiongnu people for the first time.

—The Han people have probably really become stronger and stronger.

This logic is also easy to understand.

As mentioned above, the Battle of Chaona and the Battle of Hetao-Mayi together meant only two possibilities for the Xiongnu.

Either the Han people have become more difficult to deal with, the power gap between the Han and the Xiongnu is narrowing, or even completely reversed, from the original situation where the Xiongnu were strong and the Han were weak to the situation where the Han were strong and the Xiongnu were weak;

Either the Han people were still very weak and the Xiongnu were still very strong, and it was only because a few Xiongnu people—such as the Right Wise King Yizhixie and Chanyu Junchen—made foolish mistakes that allowed the Han people to win these two wars by chance.

The 'favorable' strategic position of the past few decades made the Xiongnu instinctively inclined towards the latter rather than the former.

Therefore, after the Battle of Chaona, the Xiongnu people unanimously believed that Yizhixie was unreliable.

Even after the Battle of Hetao-Mayi, the prevailing opinion was that Chanyu Junchen was too old to continue leading the Xiongnu to dominate the grasslands. However, after the Battle of Hetao-Mayi, Chanyu Junchen easily stabilized the situation and was not forced to step down despite this major strategic defeat. The Xiongnu were astonished to discover that Junchen was not foolish at all!
It's not weak at all!

Luan Di Jun Chen, still the powerful Chanyu 'chosen' by the cruel jungle law of the grasslands!

This caused all of the Huns' previous logic to collapse.

—If Junchen was not 'weak', then the Han people who were able to win the Battle of Hetao-Mayi must have become even stronger.

Since the Han people have become stronger, then the Right Wise King Yizhixie, who lost the Battle of Chaona back then, can no longer be considered an incompetent person.

The truth is probably that back in the Battle of Chaona, the Right Wise King Yizhixie, who was neither stupid nor incompetent, was caught off guard by the Han people who had already secretly grown stronger.

In the Battle of Hetao-Mayi, the Han people, who had become even stronger, utterly humiliated the great Xiongnu Chanyu Junchen, manipulating him like a child from both a strategic and tactical perspective.

However, although they were vaguely aware of this objective reality, most Xiongnu people still retained a trace of disbelief and wishful thinking.

—Probably not?

A dozen or so years ago—or even just a few years ago—the Han people were so weak that they had to send delicate princesses to marry into the Xiongnu and beg for peace.
In just a few years, how have the Han people become so powerful?
That's not scientific...

hmm~
Even if it wasn't because the Right Wise King and the Chanyu were incompetent, the defeats of Chaona and the Hetao-Mayi World War II shouldn't have been because the Han people had become much stronger than before, right?

That's so fast...

How could that be possible in such a short time...

Because of this mentality, the Xiongnu people were always somewhat dissatisfied with the outcome of the Battle of Hetao-Mayi.

In the eyes of most Xiongnu people at that time, the defeat in the Battle of Hetao-Mayi was merely a result of the cunning Han people bullying the honest and upright Xiongnu through 'schemes and tricks'.

If they were to engage in a real battle, the Han people would probably still be as weak and clumsy as before.

The Han people seized the Hetao region not through hard power, but through conspiracies and tricks!

Things gained through intrigue and trickery cannot last!

Before long, the Hetao region will surely return to the embrace of the Great Xiongnu!
These words were believed by the nomadic peoples south of the Mu River, by the various tribes west of the Hexi Corridor, and by the nomadic tribes in the Hetao region who had submitted to the Han Dynasty, whether truly or falsely.

This is why the Hetao region at that time was filled with a strange and eerie atmosphere.

—The Han dynasty had already occupied the Hetao region through military means and gained the submission of the Hetao tribes, but it could never feel at ease about the Hetao region and could never truly and firmly control it.

Those tribes in the Ordos region were extremely obsequious to the Han people, accepting whatever they asked for without question;
But it was precisely that boundless demanding and taking that made the Han people even more uneasy.

The reason is very simple.

As a local landlord and powerful figure, your relationship with local officials will inevitably involve fighting for every inch of land.

If he asks you to pay taxes, you'll definitely try not to pay them, or pay as little as possible;
Even if they have no choice but to hand it over, they will definitely rack their brains to do something bad, handing over inferior currency to make trouble for that corrupt official who is "competing with the people for profit".

Even if you two can maintain a superficial peace, in secret, you will definitely call him a corrupt official and he will call you a wicked gentry.

You dream of him being brought down and imprisoned, while he dreams of you as a political achievement of eliminating evil and upholding justice.

The same principle applies to the grasslands.

—Within the Xiongnu, the annual tribute quotas that each tribe paid to the Chanyu's court were often disputed, sometimes even resulting in several duels!
Any tribe with a bit of power would readily challenge the Chanyu court, and would rather pay less lamb than take an extra wool.

Even those quasi-subordinate nomadic tribes that were attached to the Han Dynasty—in the Daibei Mayi area—would do everything in their power to fight for their rights.

Whenever the Han dynasty sent officials to offer their condolences, they would be treated to good food and drink while jokingly asking the Han dynasty to grant them some rewards.
When the Han people asked these tribes to pay symbolic tribute, they would chuckle and beg: "How about giving us two fewer calves, or replacing the lambs with sheepskins?"

This was the most reasonable and normal way of communication between local tribal leaders and official rulers in the grassland regions of this era.

Take the Hetao region as an example—when the Han dynasty proposed that the various tribes in the Hetao region hand over some of their warhorses to the Han dynasty to build a cavalry force, the reaction of this subjugated tribe should have been: "Oh, let's wait a little longer~"
My horse is likely to have several foals in the next few years...

Less, please~
I only have a few hundred horses in total, and you're asking for ten? How am I supposed to survive...?

Is a foal okay?
Hey, it's not like you can't ride a cow...

In reality, the tribes' reaction was: Give it to us!

I'll give you as much as you want!

I have a hundred horses, and you want a hundred and twenty. I'll sell everything I own and find someone else to buy them to make up the twenty horses you're missing!
The way he looked so relieved... well, let's just say it was...

Just like how they had taken the Han people for granted, but couldn't hold out in the Hetao region until autumn of that year, or until all the tribes had gathered enough horses to hand over.

They were certain that the Han people would not stay in the Hetao region for long, at least not until they had gathered enough horses.
Promises that don't need to be kept are just words that sound nice...

(End of this chapter)