My life is like walking on thin ice

Chapter 607 The Importance of Population

This is clearly a new era in later times, significantly different from the feudal dynasties of ancient China.

—In later generations and even in modern times, the population of China has been in the hundreds of millions.

The 1.4 billion people of the new era have become a sin against the earth.
The population of 450 million in modern times was also the largest in the world at that time.

But in this era, which is more than two thousand years away from the future, the population of Chinese civilization has long hovered between ten and forty million.

In times of war and turmoil—such as the late Qin and early Han dynasties—the number of people earning a little over ten million.
Now, the Han dynasty, after the reigns of Emperors Wen and Jing, has a population of around 30 million.

At first glance, it seems like a lot.

But in reality, for a civilization—especially the profound and vast Chinese civilization—tens of millions of people is actually a very small number.

Think about it;
The god of war Bai Qi massacred 400,000 Zhao soldiers in the Battle of Changping between Qin and Zhao!

Although this was a large-scale annihilation battle, or even a massacre, that was rare in Chinese history and even world history, it also shows from another perspective that the Zhao state at that time was able to muster an army of 400,000.

Or rather, faced with the relentless military pressure from the Qin, a powerful and aggressive state, even with only a few million people, the Zhao state had no choice but to sell everything it owned to raise an army of 400,000.

As a result, with Bai Qi's order, 400,000 Zhao soldiers perished, and the Zhao state lost a generation, or even two or three generations, of males, leading to its decline.

Even one of the seven major states during the Warring States period faced military pressure of having to muster an army of 400,000 if necessary. As a unified feudal dynasty, it goes without saying that it was even more vulnerable.

—After the First Emperor unified the country, the Northern Great Wall Army alone, which he assigned to Meng Tian, ​​numbered 300,000!

In addition, there was a 500,000-strong army assigned to the first general in charge of the southern expedition, Tu Sui, and his successor!
Aside from these two 'border armies' or 'foreign armies' in the north and south, the Qin Empire at that time naturally also had hundreds of thousands of imperial guards, capital city guards, and local county and prefecture military and security forces.

In summary, after Qin unified the country, it was able to support—or rather, had to support—a military force of over a million people with a population of only 30 to 40 million.

This is clearly unhealthy.

Even with a very simple example, it's not hard to see the anomaly here.

Now, let's talk about the current Han Dynasty. Most people live in households of five, each with a hundred acres of land. They can get three hundred shi of grain a year. The agricultural tax is one-thirtieth, which is ten shi.

When averaged out, each person paid approximately two shi (a unit of dry measure) of grain to the government annually as agricultural tax.

A soldier's monthly ration is two shi (a unit of dry measure) of grain.

This means that for just one soldier's rations, twelve farmers would need to pay agricultural taxes to support him.

This is just the food rations.

Clearly, whether in feudal dynasties during the era of cold weapons or in later eras of hot wars, the key to "raising an army" was not military rations.

Weapons, equipment, clothing, and training supplies constitute the bulk of the military's maintenance costs.

As for food and pay, these are merely the most basic bottom line.

Only at the end of a dynasty will this most basic bottom line be broken, and only then will it become the key to whether or not an army can be maintained.

Under normal circumstances, the bulk of the cost of maintaining an army is its weaponry.

Let's take the current Han Dynasty as an example.

A soldier who officially enlists is required to be equipped with a bronze sword, a military robe, and a pair of leggings.

In addition, supplies for heatstroke prevention and cold protection should be provided in a timely manner according to the climate and season of the station.

Although weapons and armaments can be passed down through generations and are like iron swords that remain while soldiers come and go, they are ultimately consumables in the era of cold weapons.

Swords will dull if used too much, spears will break if used too many times, bows and arrows will break, and bows and crossbows will also have a wear and tear on their lifespan.

Most importantly, initially, it will always take a sum of money to forge a new batch of weapons to equip the army.

A bronze sword is said to last a soldier about ten years, which is already considered a very careful outcome.

The cost of a bronze sword, even if converted directly into copper coins based on its weight, would be no less than ten thousand or eight thousand coins.

In total, a soldier's sword would lose a thousand coins' worth of value every year, and a sword worth tens of thousands of coins would be scrapped every ten years.

As for military uniforms—they can't be issued when you enlist and taken back when you leave the army, can they?

Even if you wanted to take it back, after several years of military training, it would be dilapidated.

They said that issuing a military uniform and a strip of cloth as leggings every year would cost over a thousand coins.

This is just the most basic requirement: a military uniform, leggings, and a longsword.

If they are archers, then it's another level altogether.

—A single bow and arrow costs tens of coins. If the arrow shaft breaks, it's not a big deal, as the arrowhead and fletching can be recycled.
If you lose it without careful attention, it's like throwing a stone into the water, or throwing a meat bun to a dog.

Is it unreasonable for an archer to practice shooting a thousand arrows a year?
On average, that's less than three arrows a day, which is already very little.

If you lose one percent of a thousand arrows, that's ten arrows. That's not unreasonable, is it?
Another 2% loss, which is 20 units, is quite normal, right?

good;
The ten lost items cost several hundred coins, and the twenty damaged items would cost several hundred coins to repair, which would amount to over a thousand coins.

This doesn't even include the costs of a cracked bow, worn-out crossbow mechanism, and broken bow or crossbow strings.

As mentioned earlier, the annual rations of one soldier required twelve people, each paying two shi (a unit of dry measure) of agricultural tax to support them.

These twenty-four shi of grain, in the present Han Dynasty, are not even worth a thousand coins—at most, they are worth seven or eight hundred coins.

At the current grain price of less than thirty coins per shi, a grain worth a thousand coins would amount to at least forty shi, which is equivalent to the annual agricultural tax paid by twenty farmers.

In other words: In the current Han Dynasty, a soldier would need twelve farmers to provide for his rations;

Twenty more farmers were needed to support his military robes;
Twenty farmers supported him until his sword wore out;

If the troops are archers, crossbowmen, or similar types, an additional twenty peasants are needed to supply the lost or damaged bows and arrows.

When necessary, hundreds of farmers would be needed to support the bow that was cracked, the crossbow mechanism worn out, or the string that was broken.

If we calculate it item by item, even if we take the most basic soldier, who is only equipped with a sword, the Han Dynasty would need at least sixty farmers to support one soldier.

This ratio may not seem high, but considering the total population of the Han Dynasty at that time, it was undoubtedly alarming. —Sixty peasants were needed to support just one soldier who carried a sword;

The current Han dynasty has a population of 30 million, yet it can only support 500,000 soldiers!

Five hundred thousand troops, is that too few?

Of course, there are quite a few.

However, for the Han Dynasty at that time, and for most of the feudal dynasties in China, this was undoubtedly too little.

In the north, the Great Wall, stretching nearly 13,000 miles, has maintained a basic garrison force of no less than 200,000 people since the Han Dynasty.

—These 200,000 people are just the most basic level. Every ten or five miles there is a small team of 30 to 50 people. If the number of people is reduced, there will be gaps in the defense line!
And in the south, the Baiyue people of Lingnan are eyeing us covetously, especially Zhao Tuo, who has never given up his treacherous intentions;

Without 30,000 to 50,000 troops stationed north of the Five Ridges to keep an eye on things, the current Changsha Kingdom would become the 'Changsha Prefecture of the Southern Yue Kingdom' in no time.

Besides the north and south directions, there is also the interior hinterland.

For Hangu Pass, the eastern gateway to Guanzhong, Xiaoguan Pass, the northern gateway, and Wuguan Pass, the southern gateway—especially the Hangu Pass area—a sufficient number of permanent garrison troops are needed.

As the capital, Chang'an required a force of at least 20,000 to 30,000 men (formerly the Southern and Northern armies).

In addition, local counties and prefectures also needed basic military and security forces, and the feudal lords also needed guards or even armies.

The most critical point is that all of the above are calculated based on the minimum number of employees, and are absolutely indispensable and cannot be reduced.

Even so, the number of troops has already reached several hundred thousand.

If the Han dynasty could only support an army of 500,000, it would have perished long ago because it couldn't afford to maintain its army and because of its aggressive military expansion.

Even more outrageous is that the Han dynasty had a population of 30 million, while the Manchus could only support an army of 500,000. Did they not need to support officials?
The agricultural taxes from 30 million people were all used to support the army, so there was no need to pay officials' salaries at all?

Naturally impossible.

Let alone using a portion of agricultural taxes to support officials;
Since the Han Dynasty, almost every year a large portion of the agricultural tax, at least 60%, has been used to pay the salaries of officials.

If we calculate it that way, with a population of 30 million, at least 20 million agricultural taxes would be needed to support officials.

The agricultural taxes from the remaining ten million people will also not be used for the military.

—Repairing bridges, repairing roads, providing disaster relief, and helping the people;
To put it bluntly, the way to govern a country is a different kind of way to manage finances.

Only when the principles of finance are understood can a country maintain stability.

If you can't figure it out, then you can only seek advice from Emperor Chongzhen and discuss his experiences.

From the data above, it is not difficult to see that with the current population of the Han Dynasty, even if all agricultural taxes were used to support the army, it would still be absolutely impossible to support hundreds of thousands or even millions of soldiers.

Moreover, the central government could not possibly use all of its fiscal revenue to support the army; instead, it had to allocate a large portion, or even the vast majority, of its revenue to maintain the operation of the government institutions.

In addition, there is another important point that few people have noticed.

—The current population of the Han Dynasty, numbering 30 million, is not entirely composed of 'Han people';
Nearly half of this population consisted of people from the Guandong region, such as those from Yan, Zhao, Qi, and Chu.

The agricultural taxes, poll taxes, and labor contributions paid by these vassal states and their citizens ultimately did not benefit the central government in Chang'an, but rather the local vassal kings.

The agricultural taxes of the feudal states were not considered as central government revenue for the Prime Minister's Office in Chang'an, but rather as revenue for the respective feudal states' prime ministers.
The taxes levied on the people of the vassal states would not be included in the inner treasury of the Imperial Household Department to enrich Liu Rong's imperial treasury, but would instead be included in the treasury of the vassal states, becoming the private savings of the vassal kings.

Similarly, the military service and corvée performed by the people of the feudal lords were also contributions to the feudal lords, not to the central government in Chang'an.

In other words, from the perspective of the central government in Chang'an, the population that could directly support the army and officials in Chang'an was not 30 million, but between 15 million and 17 million.

Back then, when the late emperor wanted to implement the "Policy of Reducing the Feudal States," he hesitated repeatedly, fearing that people would mistakenly believe that he had forced the feudal lords to rebel in order to seize their territory.
After the death of Liu Chang, the King of Huainan, Emperor Xiaowen of the Taizong Emperor was also afraid of being accused by the people of "plotting to seize the land of the princes". He did not delay for a moment and divided the Huainan Kingdom into three parts, which were then given to Liu Chang's three sons.

why?
Why were the emperors of the Han dynasty so worried about the people, saying that they were "plotting to seize the lands of the feudal lords"?
—Because the lands of the feudal lords were truly tempting!
—There are really great benefits to coveting the lands of the feudal lords!
The lands and populations of the feudal lords are resources that can directly bring tax revenue, as well as soldiers and labor to the central government in Chang'an!
At this point, the situation is actually quite clear.

Agricultural taxes alone were insufficient to support the enormous military expenditures and the even larger bureaucratic system, whether in the central government of Chang'an or the entire Han dynasty.

In this way, the series of actions taken by the Han dynasty since its founding become clear at a glance.

At the beginning of the Han Dynasty, Emperor Taizu had just established the dynasty, and everything needed to be rebuilt.
At that time, the Han dynasty had a population of two million households and over fifteen million people.

Half of it was divided among the feudal lords, and the remaining ten percent, or two hundred thousand households, was granted to the founding marquises.

The remaining 800,000 households, with a population of no more than 7 million, are the true taxpayers belonging to the central government in Chang'an.

As mentioned earlier, in the Han Dynasty, one soldier required the support of sixty farmers.

At the beginning of the dynasty, the agricultural tax of the Han people was not one-thirtieth as it is now, but one-fifteenth.

In other words, at that time, a soldier only needed thirty farmers to support him.

At that time, there were only seven million taxpayers directly under the Chang'an court. Even if all the agricultural taxes paid by these seven million people were used to support the army, it could only support a maximum of two hundred thousand people.

More than 200,000 people;
The northern Great Wall defense line alone would require 200,000 men.

It is clearly unrealistic to use all of the country's fiscal revenue to support border troops in one direction.

Moreover, during the reign of Emperor Gao, there were almost constant rebellions by princes of different surnames. Every time Emperor Gao personally led an expedition, he would take hundreds of thousands of troops with him.

The Battle of Pingcheng, which took place during the Siege of Baideng, saw the Han dynasty deploy as many as 320,000 troops.

Therefore, the central government in Chang'an could not afford to support the 200,000 troops defending the Great Wall in the north.

How to do it?

It was left to the three northern border vassal states of Yan, Dai, and Zhao to be raised.

Similarly, the troops of Changsha and Huainan, who were guarding against Zhao Tuo in the south, were also entrusted to these two vassal states for support.

Before the outbreak of the Rebellion of the Seven States, why did Emperor Xiaojing lower himself to the lowest level, making demands of Prince Liu Wu of Liang, and even using his younger brother as bait to guide Prince Liu Wu to resist to the end?
Because the most important gateway to the Guanzhong region of the Han Dynasty, the defensive force in the direction of Hangu Pass on the east side, was the nearly 100,000 Liang soldiers raised by King Liu Wu of Liang at that time.

As for the Chang'an court itself, let alone the 200,000 northern garrison troops, tens of thousands of southern border defense troops, and hundreds of thousands of troops in the direction of Hangu Pass;
Being able to support the southern and northern armies of Chang'an, totaling 20,000 to 30,000 troops, was already a stretch.

(End of this chapter)