It's normal to develop some black technology in the future, right?

Chapter 362 Candy and Whip

"This is not fair!" Iwasaki said, pointing at the screen full of news about the Light Armor on Yahoo News.

Not only did the American news give full coverage to the Light Armor, but so did other countries.

As the modules of the Light Armor were launched into space intensively, the entire space station expanded rapidly at the rate of one module every half a month.

The Light Armor became the most watched news in the world throughout March. The construction of this space station was faster than making dumplings.

In a sense, the construction speed of the Light Armor fully demonstrates the speed of China. Even in the construction of infrastructure in space, the Chinese have maintained the same speed as on Earth.

Imamura just glanced at it, then returned his attention to the Cansat in his hand, "What's unfair?

This is the first time that humans have launched a satellite into the universe so far away from humans. Pioneers should be appreciated even if they are not friendly to us. "

Imamura and Iwasaki are both juniors at the University of Tokyo's aerospace industry school. The Cansat in Imamura's hand is a small rocket.

To be precise, Cansat includes a rocket and a satellite, and students need to design Cansat to enable it to complete the entire process from launch to recovery.

Cansat originated from a seminar held by American and Neon in Hawaii, where they felt that there should be a teaching tool to help students better understand the aerospace industry.

Under this premise, Cansat came into being. At the same time, because Dongda was one of the proposers of the seminar at that time, they would send junior students to participate in the Cansat launch competition ARLISS, which was mainly held in the Black Rock Desert in Nevada, every year.

For students majoring in aerospace, winning a prize in this competition is definitely a record worth recording in their resume.

Before going, a small competition needs to be held within the aerospace industry major of the University of Tokyo, and it is obvious that Imamura really wants to get such an opportunity.

“I just feel like all the space-related news that comes into our newsfeed is either about SpaceX or SpaceX.

These two occupy more than 99 percent of the news coverage, whether it is foreign news or news from our own country.

As for Japan’s own aerospace development, not only will it not be reported by foreign media, but even our own media such as Yahoo, Sankei Shimbun, Asahi Shimbun, etc. will not report it.

Guangjia Aerospace claims to go into space for mining, but they have never obtained even a single sample from an asteroid, whereas our Hayabusa has clearly brought back samples from asteroids a long time ago, even from an asteroid 3.4 million kilometers away.

Even Japan’s own news media gave only a small amount of coverage to Hayabusa, as if the first human sampling of an asteroid was a trivial achievement.”

Iwasaki was indignant and dissatisfied with the "public illusion" that China and America were the only countries in the world that had made progress in the field of aerospace.

Obviously, this phenomenon is not new. Logically speaking, sampling across hundreds of millions of kilometers is romantic enough just to hear this distance, not to mention that this is also the first time for mankind. However, it did not even cause a splash in the news.

This inevitably makes Japan's aerospace professionals feel dissatisfied.

But Imamura didn't seem surprised, "This is perfectly normal, the media won't pay attention to a news that has no potential news value.

News without potential news value is just an event, not news. Imamura looked directly at Iwasaki, and he, who was always able to dig into the essence of things, continued:

“You’re right, Hayabusa brought back samples from the asteroid for the first time, and then what?
Has any information been uncovered from the asteroid samples brought back? Is there anything else on them besides olivine and pyroxene, which are very common rocks on Earth?

Are there any microorganisms? Are there any organic substances? None of these.

The other object is Hayabusa and Neon Aerospace itself. What potential can be further explored for Hayabusa? Is it possible that its future sample collection objects will be metallic asteroids?
Is it possible for Neon Aerospace to develop a series of aerospace outputs based on Hayabusa?

I'm afraid none of these answers are correct. Then Hayabusa bringing back asteroid samples is just an event.

Whether it is SpaceX's reusable rockets in the past or Light Armor Aerospace's Light Armor, they have plenty of stories to tell.

When SpaceX used chopsticks to pick up a rocket, not to mention the media, even ordinary people could talk about its principle and significance. What information can the public read from a small sample of Hayabusa's asteroid sampling?"

Imamura's answer was obviously not the answer Iwasaki wanted to hear. What Iwasaki wanted to hear was that America and China controlled world public opinion, and under their suppression, Japan's aerospace industry could not get the exposure it deserved.

Imamura's answer gave a completely new explanation from the perspective of the matter itself.

Iwasaki changed the subject and said, "Imamura, do you think it's possible for us to launch a space station to a Lagrange point?"

Without even looking up, Imamura replied, “Of course it’s possible, it’s just a matter of time.

There are no natural barriers to any technology. Perhaps in a hundred years, we will be able to launch a space station around the moon.”

Iwasaki opened his mouth wide and said, “A hundred years is too long.

One hundred years later, the Mars cities of Light Armor Aerospace and SpaceX will have been built.”

Imamura said helplessly: “What else?

In fact, Japan is not suitable for developing the aerospace industry at all. We are very weak in this area, let alone participating in the competition between America and China. Even compared with SpaceX or Guangma Aerospace, we still have a big gap.

If you want to understand the entire industry gap in detail, you can read the book "The Era of Space Venture Companies" written by Mr. Shintaka Komatsu.

Although he is not a professional in aerospace, he was hired by JAXA as an expert as a venture capitalist. In this book, he elaborates on the internal logic of why Japan has fallen behind in the modern commercial aerospace era from the perspective of an investor.

JAXA is the abbreviation of Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency.

Iwasaki said distressedly: "I really can't read this kind of book. I am not interested in business operations at all."

"The bottom line is that Japan doesn't have enough of a market to develop its own aerospace industry," Imamura said.

NASA's method of cultivating space is called COTS, or Commercial Orbital Transportation Services. In 06, they launched the Private Space Venture Enterprise Transportation Services Procurement Program, through which they ordered services from private companies to transport goods and people to the International Space Station.

The winning companies will sign a phased payment agreement with NASA. At that time, the winning companies were SpaceX and Orbital Sciences.

Not only can they get orders from NASA, but NASA will also provide them with technology transfer and talent transfer as support.

Mr. Komatsu called this model candy and whip, and the candy part refers to allowing these private enterprises to use various patents, technologies and equipment of NASA. In addition, NASA will set many milestones before the final goal is achieved.

A portion of the amount is paid after a milestone is resolved.

The payment form here is signed. Not only financial assistance is provided, but also guidance from a tutor is provided to discuss how to tackle the next subject after completing one.

To this day, SpaceX still uses this approach to solve problems.

Encounter a problem - propose a solution - test - solve the problem, and repeat this process over and over again. Compared with other commercial aerospace companies, SpaceX is extremely efficient in solving problems. Unlike many companies that solve one problem and then have 10 problems pop up, SpaceX often only needs to repeat it once to solve the problem it encountered last time. "

This is why Iwasaki likes to ask Imamura for advice. Even though Imamura’s attitude is not very good most of the time and he often answers his questions while doing his own things, Iwasaki still wants to talk to Imamura.

Imamura knows a lot and can give unique insights into many things.

After hearing this, Iwasaki immediately asked back: "So NASA's support for SpaceX is sugar, and the contractual constraints are the whip."

Imamura shook his head: "No, the whole contract is sugar. NASA provides technical support and almost teaches you how to complete the launch mission step by step. How can it be considered a whip?

The entire commercial orbital transportation service used to cultivate SpaceX and orbital space is sugar, and CRS after the end of COTS is the whip. The full name of CRS is Commercial Supply Service.

Because commercial supply services place higher demands on you. These companies need to iterate the technology they obtained from NASA in the past, otherwise you will not be able to complete the entire commercial supply service at all.

In 2008, NASA required SpaceX to complete 12 supplies and required it to provide long-term and stable space transportation services. This was the whip that gave these companies sufficient motivation to promote the further practical application and commercialization of the technologies they had acquired in the past.

At this stage, NASA will not care about the development and transportation costs, they will only pay the amount written in the contract.

In the previous candy stage, NASA would bear the losses of the enterprise and provide the enterprise with a guarantee equivalent to zero loss risk. However, this will not happen in the whip stage.

If your technology is not up to standard, you will face losses and the company will have to raise funds from outside on its own.

Otherwise you will fall behind in this long race.

Because NASA's CRS is not static, its requirements will become higher and higher. The first number was 08 in 12, and the requirements for subsequent launches have become higher and higher, while the contract amount for each launch has become lower and lower.

If you fall behind once, that’s no problem, you can get a financial respite by raising funds in Silicon Valley. But if you fall behind a second or a third time, you will fall into an unprecedented predicament until there is no way for you to turn around.

NASA has nurtured companies like SpaceX through this candy and whip approach. You can say that Musk is awesome, but NASA's mechanism is an indispensable part.

Can you imagine that you have to do Cansat since your freshman year, and the college forces you to break through your past limits every year. Can you imagine that this kind of life will continue for more than ten years? "

Iwasaki showed fear on his face, and to be honest, if Imamura hadn't wanted to participate in the ARLISS competition, he himself wouldn't have much interest in Cansat.

Iwasaki asked curiously, "Under NASA's high-pressure corporate training strategy, are there no companies that fail?"

"Of course." Imamura said as a matter of course: "As mentioned earlier, the COTS in the preparation stage is sugar. NASA provides a lot of convenience in this part and helps companies bear their losses. It is equivalent to a zero-risk startup.

It is somewhat similar to the concept of a graduation project in school, in which only SpaceX and orbital science can be graduated.

Previously, their COTS was training SpaceX and rocket planes, but later the rocket planes were eliminated and orbital science replaced the rocket planes in this plan. However, even orbital science gradually fell behind in the subsequent whip links.

The only one that has survived to this day is SpaceX.

And I think if it weren’t for Musk, SpaceX would have fallen behind sooner or later.”

Imamura went on to say, “Even the most professional experts in aerospace-related venture capital do not think that SpaceX is the result of the development of the market economy. On the contrary, it is the result of the American government’s initiative to mature private aerospace companies. It is a survivor of NASA’s breeding process.

In my opinion, JAXA should adopt a similar approach and try to cultivate private commercial aerospace companies, rather than relying on private capital to invest in such companies, which is not something that private capital can do. "

After listening to this, Iwasaki was thoughtful: "What about light armor aerospace?
Does the Chinese government also use similar methods to raise Gu?"

"No, for China, they have always participated after the results are obtained, rather than actively cultivating. China Aerospace has its own plans and sequences. China Aerospace has always adopted a non-participation and non-interference attitude towards its own commercial aerospace sector.

They even accuse private commercial aerospace agencies of poaching people from them, trying to use this kind of public pressure to force private companies not to poach people from China Aerospace.

However, under the leadership of the God of Light, Guangjia Aerospace is rising at a very fast speed. China will still provide very strong support to this enterprise that has already made achievements.

Light armor aerospace is, in a sense, an even rarer miracle, as it relies on a flash of inspiration from a genius.

In comparison, it is much more reliable for JAXA to adopt NASA's model. It is more likely to expect a Gu King to emerge from raising Gu than to expect a Nobel Prize winner to emerge from Japan in his twenties. "Imamura said.

Imamura, who had seemed calm, suddenly became frustrated: “But it’s too late now.

Even if Japan has SpaceX's technology now, it is too late. The time window has passed. Japan's aerospace future is bleak. In the future, it is inevitable that it can only do some marginal work and can only pick up the market that SpaceX and Guangjia Aerospace have not entered. It also has to wait for these two giants to turn their attention to their own fields. "

Iwasaki rarely saw such a sad expression on the optimistic Imamura, so he quickly asked, "Is there really no chance at all?
Now their progress and the technologies they have demonstrated are not that advanced, right? They are all very mature technologies, and compared with room-temperature superconductivity, they are all within the scope of the explainable framework. "

(End of this chapter)