The rise of a great power: starting with military industry

With the launch of C939, the share prices of almost all aviation-related companies in the UK stock market fell.

The share prices of Airbus and Boeing fell upon hearing the news. It is obvious that the market believes that C939 will pose a strong challenge to Boeing 777 and Airbus A350.

In recent years, Boeing and Airbus's models have been at a disadvantage in the competition with C919 and C929. Even though Boeing and Airbus have adopted price cuts in an attempt to enhance the competitiveness of their related models, they have not been able to hit C919 and C929!

In order to meet the challenges, Boeing and Airbus have not made large-scale dividends in recent years. Instead, they have increased investment in scientific research and developed more advanced models to enhance the competitiveness of their products.

In order to reduce product costs, Boeing and Airbus have to increase the proportion of parts purchased from China, which in turn hits other corresponding suppliers of the two companies.

The global aviation market is so small that if there is one more competitor, everyone will have one less piece of the pie.

This is obvious!

In the past, there were only two major players in the world in the passenger aircraft industry, one was Boeing in the United States and the other was Airbus in Europe.

However, since Guizhou Aviation Industry Corporation joined, it gradually became the third player, which naturally caused Boeing and Airbus to lose market share in China. Over the years, Boeing and Airbus have found it difficult to get orders for Chinese civil aviation passenger aircraft.

Moreover, COMAC, which was established later, competed with Boeing and Airbus in Southeast Asia, South Asia, the Middle East, Africa, Russia and Latin America, and took away some orders.

This has caused Boeing and Airbus to lose a lot of orders, which naturally led to a continuous decline in their revenue and profits.

Even Boeing and Airbus have laid off employees three times so far.

And at this time, the British played the role of troublemaker in Europe and began to increase their power in Ukraine.

The situation in Ukraine is becoming increasingly turbulent, and there is a hint that a color revolution may break out again.

As early as 2003, Ukraine had a color revolution, which was called the "Orange Revolution". This was a protest caused by presidential election fraud, with orange chestnut flowers (the city flower of Kiev) as a symbol, demanding a recount and election supervision. In fact, this was a push from Europe and the United States to elect pro-Western Ukrainian politicians to take over the highest power in Ukraine. In the end, the pro-Western Yushchenko defeated the pro-Russian Yanukovych.

The "Orange Revolution" was promoted by Europe and the United States as the largest and most peaceful democratic movement in Ukrainian history, and was also regarded as the most successful case of a color revolution.

After all, this was a political game between Europe, the United States and Russia on the land of Ukraine, and in the end Europe and the United States won.

As for Yushchenko, who came to power, he failed to effectively solve Ukraine's economic, social and political problems during his tenure.

Europe, the United States and Russia competed again in 2010. The result was that the pro-European and American Yushchenko was defeated by the pro-Russian Yanukovych, and Russia regained the upper hand.

Today, many Ukrainian politicians are calling on Yanukovych to sign a trade agreement with the EU, strengthen ties with Europe, and eventually join the EU. The voices for Ukraine to join the EU are growing louder and louder.

Russia will naturally not sit idly by and watch Ukraine leave Russia and join Europe, or simply join the United States. The geopolitics involved are even more cruel and intense.

Yanukovych refused to sign a trade agreement with the European Union, and pro-Western politicians began to stir up trouble, organizing protests marked by the blue and yellow EU flag and demanding the government's resignation and closer ties with Europe.

Neither the United States nor the United Kingdom took the initiative to step to the forefront, but instead pushed the European Union to the forefront.

France and Germany issued statements almost at the same time, saying that Ukraine still has a long way to go before it can join the European Union, but they do not want a fierce conflict to break out between Ukraine and Russia.

However, within the EU, the UK expressed its welcome for Ukraine to join the EU. Similarly, pro-American countries in the EU also made public statements welcoming Ukraine to join the EU and become a member of the EU family.

The entire protest movement lasted for several months and evolved into violent clashes and bloodshed.

Finally, with the support of the United States and other Western countries, Yanukovych was forced to flee Ukraine, and pro-Western forces came to the fore.

This color revolution is considered to be the most intense and divisive political crisis in Ukrainian history and the most controversial and consequential case in the wave of color revolutions.

The color revolution that took place in Ukraine has intensified various contradictions and confrontations between the east and west of Ukraine, between Russian-speaking and non-Russian-speaking areas, and between pro-Russian and anti-Russian groups, and has triggered a series of disastrous consequences.

The first is the Crimea region. The Crimean parliament declared independence from Ukraine. The entire Crimea region held a referendum. According to the results of 100% of the votes, 96.77% of the voters who participated in the vote were in favor of Crimea joining the Russian Federation, with a turnout rate of 83.1%. Then Russia approved the treaty for Crimea to join the Russian Federation.

The establishment of the Republic of Crimea and its joining the Russian Federation were strongly condemned and protested by Western countries such as the United States and the United Kingdom, which did not recognize the Crimean referendum.

Russia, on the other hand, mocked that the United States and other countries can hold referendums in other places such as Kosovo, but the people of Crimea cannot hold a referendum themselves?

The geopolitical game between the two sides has further intensified.

Even France and Germany were swept up in this wave of voices.

After all, France and Germany are now the leaders of the European Union and must consider the opinions of all European countries. Now many European countries can't help but recall the fear of the Tsarist Russia's "European steamroller"
A meeting is being held in China to analyze Eastern Europe.

After all, this also concerns China's interests. As the world's factory and also a world-class power, China has vast interests overseas. China has trading partners all over the world, and Chinese people are doing business there.

The trade between China and Ukraine is very close. China is Ukraine's largest trading partner. Since the 90s, China has been importing some Soviet weapons and equipment from Ukraine, including tanks, armored vehicles, missiles, aircraft, warships, etc. A large amount of information is shipped from Ukraine to China. In addition to cooperation in the military industry, the trade volume between the two sides in the civilian field is also constantly setting new highs.

Ukraine is rich in agricultural resources, with 4150 million hectares of agricultural land, accounting for 70% of the country's land area. The soil is fertile, with a black soil area of ​​nearly 2500 million hectares, accounting for 27% of the world's total black soil. The country has sufficient water resources and convenient irrigation, making it suitable for agricultural production. Ukraine's main crops include cereals, oil crops, sugar crops and potatoes. Ukraine's average crop output can reach 1.5 to 2 times its domestic demand. In addition to being self-sufficient, it also exports. Ukraine is the world's largest exporter of sunflower oil and sunflower meal, the third largest exporter of grains, the third largest exporter of rapeseed and walnuts, the fourth largest exporter of barley and corn, and the sixth largest exporter of soybeans.

And China is one of the most important exporters of agricultural products to Ukraine!

In addition, Ukraine is a destination chosen by many Chinese to study abroad, with a total of more than 1 Chinese students studying in Ukraine. It is against this background that the situation in Ukraine is turbulent, and China attaches great importance to it and keeps track of the latest situation at any time.

Liu Tao spoke only after everyone else had finished speaking. His opinion was different from many others: "According to current intelligence, the United States and the United Kingdom are increasing their power projection in Ukraine to intensify their geopolitical game with Russia and divide the relationship between Europe and Russia, so as to unite Europe, isolate Russia and strike Russia. It is obvious that Russia cannot accept Ukraine entering the arms of the United States. This is Russia's strategic bottom line."

"Therefore, the geopolitical game in Ukraine will become increasingly intense, and even a war will break out. Russia will inevitably choose military means when it is forced to a certain extent." Liu Tao said, "It can be said that it is not surprising at all if a war breaks out here at any time."

Some people are optimistic that the conflicts here are controllable and will ultimately be resolved through political negotiation rather than war.

Obviously, this view is too optimistic.

The situation in Ukraine is very complicated. It involves both the current geopolitical game among various parties and historical issues.

The Soviet era is over, but the problems it left behind still have a profound impact on us today, and it is foreseeable that they will have an impact for another ten, twenty years or even longer.

Russia is good at solving problems with military means. For example, in Libya, Russia chose to intervene and play a game with the United States to stabilize Libya and prevent Gaddafi from being overthrown. Libya was taken into the hands of the United States, while Russia lost its most important strategic fulcrum in North Africa and also its most important strategic fulcrum in the Mediterranean.

An important reason for Russia's important influence in Europe is that Russia has a Mediterranean fleet in Libya. This Mediterranean fleet is the basis for Russia to play an important role in Europe.

Besides, the two major markets for Russian energy are Europe and the East. A large part of the natural gas destined for Europe passes through Ukraine, and Russia cannot accept being strangled in energy exports to Europe at any time.

Energy is Russia's most important export commodity and its most important source of foreign exchange and fiscal revenue.

Some people jokingly say that Russia is a larger Saudi Arabia with nuclear weapons, and there is some truth to this.

Russia relies on energy exports to maintain a relatively good life. In addition to the export of agricultural products, minerals and other raw materials, Russia has always been one of the most important players in the world with its vast territory, rich resources, millions of troops and huge nuclear arsenal.

If Russia wants to regain its status as a world power like the Soviet Union, it must take over Ukraine. Only by taking over Ukraine can it go one step further. If it loses Ukraine, Russia will never be able to regain the power it had during the Soviet era.

Between Russia and Ukraine, which one is more important to China? It is undoubtedly Russia.

In international relations, the most important thing is the relationship between major powers!
The importance of China's relationship with Russia is actually second only to China's relationship with the United States.

China and Russia have a long border, which is because there is Outer Mongolia as a buffer zone, otherwise the border would be even longer. If the two sides are friendly, then naturally you are good, I am good, and everyone is good. If the two sides are hostile, then it is inevitable that millions of troops must be maintained on the northern border to deal with possible wars. This is the same for both sides.

Furthermore, Russia is one of China's most important energy importers. China imports a large amount of oil and natural gas from Russia every year, and Russian oil and natural gas account for at least 25% of China's oil and natural gas imports. Through pipeline transportation, coupled with the long-term cooperation signed by both parties, the price of oil and natural gas will be relatively low.

Furthermore, China is Russia's largest importer of timber, iron ore, copper ore, etc.

Russia is also an important commodity export destination for China. The amount of commodities exported each year is very large, ranging from clothes, pants, socks and shoes to airplanes, cars, electrical appliances and so on.

The total trade volume between China and Russia is much larger than that between China and Ukraine. The gap between the two sides is not small.

Furthermore, whether China wants to achieve regional economic integration in Central Asia or in Northeast Asia, it cannot avoid Russia.

If war breaks out in Ukraine, what should China choose?

This is an issue worth studying and exploring!

Liu Tao raised this question at the meeting. He didn't want China to be caught off guard when that day really came.

In Liu Tao's view, the outbreak of war in Ukraine is almost inevitable, it is just a matter of year and day.

Unless the United States and others compromise and withdraw from Ukraine, they will assume that Ukraine is Russia's sphere of influence.

For China, Southeast Asia, South Asia, Central Asia, Northwest Asia, and Northeast Asia are stable, and the probability of war breaking out is very small. The friction between Lan Fang and Australia is too marginal. The only area where war may break out is Northeast Asia.

However, this possibility is actually not very high.

China has spent a lot of energy on promoting economic integration in Northeast Asia, easing relations among all parties, and enabling all parties to communicate and negotiate in a friendly manner.

Then the interests that can affect China must be in a more distant place.

The voices calling for China's overseas interests to be protected are becoming louder and more urgent.

Ukraine is an extremely important fulcrum.

Once something happens here, the chain reaction it causes will be extremely shocking.

It is not completely impossible that World War III will break out here.

As one of the most important players in the world today, China cannot completely stay out of it, and how to respond to maintain China's interests is particularly important.

Now in Africa and the Middle East, China's power projection is relatively strong. But in Ukraine, this power projection is very limited. (End of this chapter)