Three Kingdoms: Wolong's brother-in-law, tricking Liu Bei into seizing Jingzhou

"A lean camel is bigger than a horse. In the Pseudo-Qin, besides Guo Jia, there are still some wise men."

Changing the subject, Xiao Fang said:
"But in my opinion, Cao Cao must not be in Lueyang City, or in other words, the Qin army in Lueyang City is not the main force of Qin."

"If my calculations are correct, there are only about 10,000 Qin troops in the city, and they are just bluffing under the banner of Cao Cao."

As soon as these words were spoken, everyone was shocked.

"Why do you say that, Prime Minister? How do you conclude that Cao Cao is not in Lueyang and there are only more than 10,000 Qin troops in the city?"

Liu Bei turned to look at Xiao Fang with surprise.

Ma Chao also looked doubtful and said:
"According to the intelligence sent back by my scouts, a few days before our army arrived at Lueyang, nearly 10,000 Qin troops entered Lueyang every day. If there are not 90,000, there must be at least 70,000 to 80,000 people."

"Why did the Prime Minister say that there were only 10,000 Qin troops in the city?"

Everyone nodded, expressing their doubt.

Xiao Fang did not explain much, but asked Liu Bei with a smile:

"Your Majesty, do you remember how Dong Zhuo used a sleight of hand to suppress the various forces in Luoyang and steal the power of the government?"

When the old events were suddenly mentioned, Liu Bei was startled and confused for a moment.

However, Fa Zheng's eyes flashed, as if he was suddenly enlightened.

"Dong Zhuo originally brought only 3,000 soldiers into Luoyang. He was afraid that the small number of soldiers would not be enough to deter the various forces, so he ordered these 3,000 soldiers to leave the city every night and return to the city with great fanfare during the day."

"If this goes on, the nobles and the people of Luoyang will think that Dong Zhuo has many soldiers and generals, and that the Xiliang army is continuously entering Luoyang."

"Dong Zhuo used this trick to deceive Yuan Shao and other ministers and successfully stole the power of the court!"

Fa Zheng recounted the past events, then looked at Xiao Fang:
"Could it be that the Prime Minister calculated that there were only about 10,000 Qin troops in Lueyang City, and he was imitating Dong Zhuo's tactics back then, quietly moving his troops out of the city at night and entering Lueyang during the day?"

"That's why my scout was deceived and brought back false information that the main force of the Qin army was in Lueyang?"

Xiao Fang smiled and agreed with Fa Zheng's speculation.

Liu Bei and everyone else just realized it.

"Prime Minister, Chao still doesn't quite understand. Even if we use this sleight of hand, it can indeed create the illusion that a large army has entered Lueyang."

"But how did the Prime Minister conclude that Cao Cao used this sleight of hand?"

Ma Chao scratched his forehead, his eyes still full of doubt.

Liu Bei's eyes, which had just been enlightened, were once again filled with suspicion because of Ma Chao's words.

"The person who proposed this plan to Cao Cao is indeed quite capable, but unfortunately, there is always a loophole."

"He was only concerned with creating the illusion that the troops were coming in an endless stream, but forgot to create the illusion that the food carts were also coming in an endless stream."

Xiao Fang pointed his feather fan to the south and said:

"Yesterday, according to another intelligence from the scouts, I learned that the grain carts that have been coming to Lueyang from the south every day in the past few days are only enough to carry 10,000 soldiers and horses."

"If Cao Cao's main force is in Lueyang, the size of the Qin army's food train should be enough for 90,000 people."

"From this, I can infer that Cao Cao's main force is not in Lueyang City, and Cao Cao himself is not in the city either."

"There are only more than 10,000 soldiers in the city. Their purpose is to deceive and contain our army, making us think that Cao Cao's entire army is here!"

Xiao Fang did not lay any more groundwork and directly pointed out the basis for his judgment.

Liu Bei suddenly realized.

All the doubts in Ma Chao's eyes disappeared.

All the ministers present seemed to have just woken up from a dream. They were all amazed and looked at Xiao Fang with admiration.

"I see. I didn't think of using the number of grain carts to determine the number of enemy troops in Lueyang City."

"The Prime Minister's wisdom is beyond my reach."

Fa Zheng sighed with admiration and expressed his genuine submission to Xiao Fang.

Liu Bei came to his senses, but confusion appeared in his eyes:
"As the Prime Minister has judged, Cao Cao's main force is not in Lueyang, so where is it?" Ma Chao was confused again and asked:

"Yes, Lueyang City is the only city north of Ji City that can be defended. Cao Cao should have stationed a large number of troops here to prevent our army from taking Ji City directly."

"He is only sending 10,000 people here to bluff. What is his purpose?"

Everyone was puzzled again.

"You Chang, what do you think?"

Xiao Fang did not express his judgment, but gave Ma Su a chance to show himself.

Ma Su pondered for a long time and then said slowly:

"Although Lueyang is the only barrier north of Jicheng, Cao Cao should be well aware that there is a huge disparity between his military strength and that of the Han Dynasty. Lueyang alone cannot stop our 300,000-man army."

"Even if he uses this method of covering the city with ice, it can only hold out for a month or two at most. When winter passes and spring comes and the ice and snow melt, the walls of Lueyang will still be exposed to the bombardment of our Hanwei cannons."

"By then, he still won't be able to defend Lueyang, and the 90,000 Qin troops will still suffer a great defeat."

After a pause, Ma Su continued:

"For Cao Cao, if he really wants to hold on, the best strategy is to shrink his forces to the Jicheng line, relying on the Wei River as a barrier and Yizhou as a backing to resist our army."

"Although the chances of winning are slim, they are much greater than going north to defend Lueyang."

"But if Cao Cao allows our army to approach Jicheng, his troops' movements will have nowhere to hide and will be exposed to the surveillance of my scouts."

"Once this happens, it will be difficult for Cao Cao to launch a surprise attack to win!"

Taking a deep breath, Ma Su's tone became firm:
"In my opinion, if Cao Cao wants to hold on to Longxi and even Liangzhou, and wants to repel my 300,000-man army with only 90,000 soldiers and horses, his only chance is to launch a surprise attack!"

"So I speculate that Cao Cao ordered these 10,000 soldiers to pretend to be the main force and to defend Lueyang City. His intention was to use a small group of troops to distract and attract our army, while leading the main force to achieve a surprise victory!"

Ma Su spoke fluently and clearly, and presented his calculations in one breath.

Xiao Fang nodded slightly, a look of approval on his face.

Ma Su's calculations coincided exactly with what he thought.

Perhaps it was the actual combat training in the Battle of Jieting that Ma Su's wisdom and vision have been further improved.

Everyone suddenly realized.

"Yes, Ma Youchang's analysis is very correct."

"For Cao Cao, the only chance to turn the tide and defeat the enemy with a small force is to achieve a surprise victory!"

Fa Zheng nodded heavily, agreeing with Ma Su's calculations.

All the ministers immediately started discussing.

Liu Bei understood what was going on, a shadow fell on his face, and he said with a vigilant look:

"Then according to Youchang, where is the main force of Cao's army now, and how does Cao Cao plan to achieve a surprise victory?"

"this…"

Ma Su was stumped by the question and looked ashamed:

"Forgive me for my shallow wisdom. I only speculated that Cao Cao might use a surprise attack to win. As for how Cao would do it, I was unable to think of it for a moment."

Liu Bei looked at the rest of his counselors.

Fa Zheng, Liu Ye and the others all had frowns on their faces, apparently unable to figure it out.

Liu Bei's gaze finally fell on Xiao Fang.

Xiao Fang's gaze turned to Lueyang City, looking at the silver ice wall with a thoughtful look.

"Ice wall, ice wall, ice, ice..." (End of this chapter)