Winner Takes It All, Resurrection 2009

Almost everyone knows that the financial market cannot rise indefinitely, but they cannot resist the temptation of short-term benefits brought by the general rise, especially as the stock market has almost tripled in the past two years.

Even if ordinary people buy these stocks casually and do not operate recklessly, they can make a lot of money. Ordinary people will inevitably brag about their money to prove their abilities, so as to influence more people to join the speculative industry and make money.

When most people start discussing the money-making effect of the financial market, danger signals also arise. From an economic perspective, the financial market is a zero-sum game. If someone makes money, someone else must lose money.

The reason why there are no major fluctuations in the stock market at the moment is simply that there is too much social capital pouring in. The latecomers are all dreaming of continued growth, constantly pushing financial virtual wealth to a higher level.

Taking the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets as an example, the daily trading volume in the first half of 2013 was only around 2013 billion yuan (and in many cases it did not even reach billion yuan). With the influx of large amounts of Qingyun capital and domestic capital, it soared to around billion yuan in the second half of .

After entering 2014, with the new round of massive money printing by the central bank and especially the booming development of Internet finance, social deposits were attracted by a few financial groups with high interest rates.

Only the people's livelihood micropayment department dares to offer an interest rate of 8.5%, while Internet financial companies can easily offer an interest rate of 15-25%. Any app platform can easily absorb to billion yuan in funds.

The reason why these companies dare to charge high interest rates is nothing more than relying on the irrational prosperity of the financial market and the credit issuance after this part of social funds is decoupled from the RMB.

Tens of trillions of dollars are pushed into the market every year. Although state-owned financial institutions are racking their brains to find ways to deal with the huge amount of funds, the country has even proposed large-scale infrastructure plans in the Midwest and Southeast Asia.

However, it is still impossible to consume such a large amount of currency. In addition, companies and individuals with connections and backgrounds have stepped in to add fuel to the fire, and a large amount of funds will inevitably flow into the financial market.

Although the higher-ups were wary, they did not introduce strict restrictive policies. After all, it was better to let domestic capital take the opportunity to make profits than to let foreign capital reap the profits. Thus, a feast of capital was successfully kicked off.

Since March 2014, the transaction scale of stock markets, futures markets and various investment bond funds in Southeast Asia, Japan and neighboring economies has continued to expand, and foreign capital with extremely keen sense of smell also immediately joined in at the same time.

Various funds and policies have injected a raging fire into the real economy, which has already completed industrial upgrading and entered a period of unprecedented capacity explosion. This is reflected in the financing market, where basically every project is invested in.

The prices of high-quality assets continued to rise. In July, some companies that had originally planned to raise 7 million yuan in the market for key projects received a strange offer of million yuan from the capital market. Many projects even failed to pass bank review.

Driven by economic interests, financial companies also package them into medium- and low-risk projects and openly sell them to individual investors who lack the necessary investment knowledge and risk resistance.

Almost everyone has gone crazy, as if the overall economic environment has lost its development logic overnight. There is no limit to how much money is needed for real investment, and the required funds often come to the door before the project is even established, and there is no way to refuse them.

The real economy is so crazy, not to mention the stock market, futures market and foreign exchange market. Take the Dongda Shanghai and Shenzhen markets as an example. With the massive influx of capital, it is inevitable that leverage and over-the-counter financing businesses will get out of control.

Under the premise of crazy leverage, it took only 150 days for the mainland market to break through the average daily trading volume of billion to billion.

Seeing that there was no reaction from above, everyone became bolder. It only took 1 days to grow from 90 billion to 2014 trillion. After July 7, the stock market trading volume increased day by day. It took another 90 days for the trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets to successfully exceed trillion.

And it has remained stable at this number for a long time. What does a trading volume of 2 trillion RMB mean?
This is the T+1 model. You can only continue trading the next day if you buy on the same day. Even the Hong Kong Stock Exchange next door once reached a trading volume of one trillion Hong Kong dollars. Not to mention the Singapore Stock Exchange, which has a daily trading volume of two to three hundred billion US dollars.

Everyone knows that the game of passing the parcel cannot last long. From a deeper perspective, once the profits and risks of capital operations are more profitable than investing in the physical manufacturing industry, it will form an exclusion effect on manufacturing capital.

In serious cases, it will affect the long-term development plan of the real economy manufacturing industry, but the top leaders have never expressed their views on the financial market in public, which has given countless people an illusion.

It seems that the economic environment will prosper indefinitely, and at least there will be no problems until I make money.

Small and medium-sized investors and institutions can only see things in the dark. It is understandable that they are unwilling to easily stop speculative trading due to the huge short-term profits.

Large institutions are basically aware of the inside story, especially foreign institutions, which are well aware of this. They are the biggest promoters of the capital bubble. Since the University of Tokyo is unwilling or unable to control it, they will not be polite.

Especially at this time, more than 2013 trillion RMB was pushed into overseas markets by the University of International Business and foreign capital also wanted to take the opportunity to hoard RMB on a large scale for use in the subsequent foreign exchange war, so between November 11 and March 2015.

More than 1.75 trillion US dollars of foreign capital has poured into the Dongda market in the form of domestic loans under foreign guarantees. These funds are usually concealed under the pretext of investing in industries and participating in foreign trade. In fact, most of them eventually flow into financial markets and high-quality assets.

The market stimulation from foreign capital and the expansion of RMB issuance, as well as the intention of large groups to go long and make profits have created the appearance of a highly prosperous financial market in Eastern economies, and the foundation of course is the rapid growth of Eastern economies’ economic strength.

Only a well-developed and globally competitive industrial chain and a world-leading manufacturing industry can underpin the prosperity of the financial capital market. Therefore, with the right timing, location and people, the prosperity of the financial market is a natural consequence...

"Crazy, all crazy." At an economic meeting in mid-to-late March, CEO Lou accused Li in a fair manner, "Look at what you have done. Now that the banks are tightening the money supply, everyone is making excuses.

Forget about actively cooperating. Even if we want to stabilize the situation, there will be a lot of people opposing it, saying that we must respect the market. When pushed to the limit, they even come up with the excuse of preventing systemic dangers.

If this continues, there will definitely be a big problem. If we check several banks in Yanjing Magic City and Guangdong East, we will find that at least hundreds of billions of funds are unaccounted for. There is no need to check, they must have gone into the stock market. "

Those who can attend the meeting are all bigwigs, and they are all difficult to talk to because most of these funds are taken by them from different channels, and they are making money every day.

But everyone knows that the good days are over. The higher-ups called everyone together and criticized Qingyun Group's Li Zehua by name, which was clearly intended to make an example of him.

Just looking at Li's attitude, everyone knows it's just a double act.

As expected, Li Zehua stood up and immediately admitted his mistake respectfully, "...Please rest assured, I will conduct a thorough investigation of people's livelihood and micropayments as soon as I return, and I will absolutely follow the orders of the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank.

Don’t allow any money to flow into the financial market. Seven days, just seven days. If you can’t do it, I’ll behead you.”

With him taking the lead, others had to make a statement no matter how much they resisted. However, some people were reluctant to give up the huge profits in the financial market and stood up to try to delay.

The implicit meaning is that the interest income alone is several billion yuan a day. Add to that the bank's proprietary trading departments and securities companies, and the state-owned funds make more than tens of billions of yuan in profits every day.

"One month, at most one month. Please ask the higher-ups to comprehensively consider the current situation. Our situation is not just good, it's very good." The chairman of a large state-owned financial holding company spoke passionately at the meeting.

Unfortunately, before he could finish his words, he was reprimanded like thunder. The director of the Development and Reform Department next to the CEO personally stepped in and said, "You are still dreaming. Foreign capital has already begun to prepare to withdraw and short sell.

One month, and then I'll watch you lose your last dollar?"

Then he threw out the action time and detailed plan of foreign capital, and said sternly: "Greed has blinded your mind. You thought that others would wait for you to cash in. At most half a month, this group of people will launch a counterattack.

Who will bear the trillions of dollars in losses then?"

Some people are not convinced. "Even if foreign capital withdraws, the overall upward trend will not change. Plus, with the Qingyun system as the bottom, we can still make money."

"Is making money the purpose?" Mr. Lou's face changed. "How much money do you want? Tell me a number and I'll arrange for the printing factory to print it for you, okay?
Short-sighted! Is it a question of profit and loss now? Don't think I don't know how many trillions you have earned in the past year or so. Now is the time to cooperate with the country to seize the initiative in finance and currency.

Once the RMB is successfully internationalized and the key period for the RMB to replace the US dollar is reached, once foreign capital is allowed to flee, and they are successfully able to escape and short sell to reap a profit, then all of us here will be historical sinners..."

Normally, everyone would have ignored it. After all, the world is so big that it cannot hinder the welfare of the group, and no one can just ask everyone to give up hundreds of millions of net profits every day.

To cooperate with the invisible and intangible grand strategy. At best, they can pretend to obey but actually disobey, and continue to make money no matter what the superiors say, but there is no fool who can enter here, and there are a lot of people outside who are eyeing them covetously.

He looked as if he would take away anyone who dared to commit the crime immediately, so no one dared to speak anymore.

"It's not that we need to stop doing the profitable business, but that we need to cooperate in completing the grand strategy while making money." The big boss smiled and came out to smooth things over, "As the saying goes, no flower blooms forever, and there is no such thing as something that only goes up and never goes down.

Hasn’t foreign capital always said that rise and fall are market behaviors? Well, now that state-owned capital has sensed the market risks and is withdrawing in advance, is this a market behavior? I think it is!

Besides, short selling is also a market behavior, it’s just that we are a little faster than foreign investors, isn’t this also in line with market behavior?”

After saying this, everyone has to agree regardless of whether they are willing or not. To put it bluntly, everyone is afraid of difficulties. Why?

If we continue to go long, foreign capital will gradually withdraw, but we cannot stop the two or three hundred million individual investors from continuing to come. Even if each person only has a few tens of thousands of yuan on average, the leverage can add up to an astronomical figure.

As long as the core group of Dongda Capital holds on, it will be able to package the chips in its hands and sell them at a sky-high price within a month, and these individual investors will be affected by the crazy bullish sentiment.

Rush in without hesitation to take over the market, and then cooperate with foreign capital to short sell, which ensures that there is no risk and you can make money without doing anything.

If we prepare to short sell now, we will not only have to face the counterattack of hundreds of millions of investors, but we will also have to bring in foreign capital. It will definitely be a life-and-death battle, and any carelessness will result in a loss of both sides.

More importantly, the war will no longer be limited to the stock and futures markets, but will inevitably spread to the foreign exchange and bond markets, and foreign capital will do everything possible to recover its losses.

Even, a real war broke out because of this!

However, the upper echelons have made up their minds. Li Zehua took the lead in expressing his stance, and many of Qingyun’s big group allies followed suit. A few companies that were reluctant to give up huge profits and worried about risks could only cooperate obediently...

So between March and April, financial institutions and small and medium-sized securities firms were the first to start self-inspection and withdraw from the stock market. Although this caused quite a stir, large state-owned capital has not followed suit, and foreign capital is still lobbying frantically in an attempt to hold them back.

Foreign investors are not unaware of the dangers involved, but the profits are tempting, and almost everyone believes that such a large-scale withdrawal and short selling cannot be concealed from Wall Street, so foreign investors are making a final push to try to get out at a high price.

However, in places they cannot see, large state-owned financial groups have been selling off through secret channels in the form of entrusted sales and securities lending. It was only because private enterprises such as Qingyun Group continued to take over that foreign investors did not become vigilant.

In other words, foreign capital discovered it, but did not understand the situation for a while. After all, while the overall trading volume of blue-chip stocks increased, the scale of domestic purchases was still increasing.

Even if foreign investors have great connections, they cannot obtain insider secrets under the strict precautions of Dongda Capital. They can only passively receive belated information.

In fact, the outcome was already determined from the beginning. Because foreign capital decided to take action in May, Todai started to dump the market in April. Whoever has the right to interpret the rules of the game will win.

The bottom line is that the rules of the game have changed. When the fungus can no longer suppress the Tokyo University formation head-on, Tokyo University has already attracted Southeast Asia and the foot basin chicken to join through the huge scale of RMB swaps, forming a certain degree of basic base.

Even if American capital is well aware of the details, it is difficult to reverse the unfavorable situation because in the final analysis, strength is the key to success in this world.

When traditional American capital went from total compromise to total confrontation, its actions were somewhat ridiculous. Even internally, there was no unified understanding, not to mention that the Squid Capital Group was caught in a dilemma, wanting to make money but not daring to break off relations.

This makes it difficult for American capital to form a joint force in the first place.

Therefore, when large state-owned financial groups use the entrustment form to sell almost all the shares that can be sold for cash, and then suddenly take the lead in attacking before foreign capital dumps the market and shorts.

Even if foreign investors were mentally prepared, they were still confused for a while.

On April 4, April Fool's Day, the Central Bank, the Ministry of Finance, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, the China Insurance Regulatory Commission, the China Banking Regulatory Commission, China Investment Corporation, Zhongxin Financial Holdings, China International Capital Corporation and many state-owned financial groups publicly spoke to the market.

A series of policies were introduced to openly restrict various funds from entering the stock market, which caused an uproar in public opinion.

This plan was originally scheduled to be released in mid-to-late April, but it had to be released ahead of schedule due to changes in specific circumstances. Foreign investors are not fools, and if domestic small and medium-sized institutions withdraw early, foreign capital will follow suit.

When Dongda Capital's institutions are shorting, foreign investors will also get wind of it and follow suit. However, foreign investors have not figured out Dongda Capital's overall core strategy for the time being, so they are at a loss as to whether to withdraw from the short position immediately or make another profit.

There are huge differences. Some of the foreign investors, including the Sita Capital Group, traditional American capital and European capital, were originally preparing to find out more about the inside story. However, once they realized that the top leaders of Dongda University were planning to close the net, they would immediately flee and dump the stocks.

However, Dongda did a very good job of keeping internal confidentiality this time, especially in those links that might involve the leakage of confidential information. Middle-level managers were basically not involved. In their eyes, the market value of the shares held by the group remained basically unchanged (in fact, they were sold secretly).

By the time they realized something was wrong, the market value of the shares held by Dongda Capital had already been sold off by more than 70%, with the shares of high-quality companies basically being taken over by the Qingyun Group and other institutions that could control the situation.

When the news reached America, even Powell was stunned, "This is impossible. The core financial capital of Dongda still controls at least more than 20 trillion in stock market chips.

They are shorting on a large scale at this time. Even if they suppress the risk bubble, they are bound to pay a terrible price, even killing one thousand enemies and losing three thousand of their own!"

"But the facts don't lie." Tommy, another Fed shareholder, was also going crazy. "News came from the Octagon, and satellites and field personnel were dispatched to their ports to check and find out.

All the ships that were originally staying for maintenance went out to sea, the big guys on the seabed disappeared, and the areas around their airports were all put on alert. The radars we deployed in the surrounding areas could even receive countless signals at the same time.

Based on this, we have reason to believe that the University of Tokyo is preparing to catch us all in one fell swoop this time."

"I don't believe it! Where do they get the courage?" Powell was completely confused. "Besides, how can anyone short themselves? Not only did they not sell in the stock market, they continued to buy..."

Not to mention that Powell couldn't understand it, even many financial groups in Dongda Capital didn't understand why the Qingyun Group was shorting while frantically buying in the stock market?

It is precisely because of this that foreign capital is completely confused. Otherwise, they are not fools and would run away in advance if the East China Stocks were sold on a large scale.

But this scene that violates financial common sense actually happened, and the Qingyun Group became ruthless and did not even spare itself.

"A bunch of idiots." Li Zehua said calmly, "When I am in my situation, what do I need money for? State-owned capital cannot be lost, because I can't explain it to the Chinese people.

The problem is that I am a private capital. The money I made from going long in the stock market in the past two years can be spit out at worst. It is better to use these trillions of dollars to circle all the foreign capital and hold on to it until death than anything else.

Besides, did I lose money? If I don’t pay my investment pledge, how can hundreds of companies go public safely? The financing amount brought by the listing alone is enough to offset all the losses and make a fortune.”

Foreign investors have calculated everything but still can't figure out that there are still people in this world who think they don't have enough money...

(End of this chapter)