super energy power

Professor Dai agreed, looked down at the small piece of paper, and briefly introduced: "Su Dong believes that the United States is well prepared for war and diplomacy, and will use various means to avoid the third oil crisis. Therefore, the pre-war The oil price will come down. (Full-text novel is updated the fastest) I think that the United States will take advantage of it in the early stage of the war, but as the ground war expands, the oil fields of Saudi Arabia, Iran and other countries will be in danger .Especially oil pipelines, oil tankers and high-production oil wells are likely to be targeted, and the results are unpredictable.”

Su Zhenguo said "hmm" and looked at Su Cheng, as if he was about to host a debate.

With so many senior cadres, it would be difficult for Suzhou City to meet any of them on weekdays. He didn't want to offend them all, so he smiled cooperatively and said, "I don't know much about war, but I want to say something. Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Venezuela, etc. China’s production capacity is very large. It was restricted by OPEC in the past and failed to be used. Once the war starts, there is no need to wait until it starts. They are already over-producing crude oil. The extra 500 million barrels per day can fully make up for Iraq. And the loss of Kuwait. Therefore, in terms of supply and demand, there will be no shortage of oil. If the bad situation mentioned by Professor Dai does not happen, is it possible for the price of oil to go down instead?"

As a policy researcher, Professor Dai admits that what Sioux City said makes sense, but it is too contrary to common sense.

A war in the Middle East, oil prices do not rise?

Are you playing around?

However, if crude oil production does not decrease and the scope of the war does not expand, what reason is there for oil prices to rise?

The scholars in the policy research office were silent in thought, and the leaders who were cautious in their words and deeds naturally could not speak.On the contrary, Wang Lizhen deliberately made trouble, saying: "I don't know how to fight, but in the situation you mentioned, one day or two days is enough. One month and two months. After three months and five months, OPEC has become a decoration? They have to re-restrict production, oil prices go up. Good for them too, right?"

Wang Lizhen is the daughter of the CEO of Changning Infrastructure.After Changning Infrastructure was merged by COSCO Shipyard, Wang Lianjun took up a idle job and spent his days playing with flowers and grass.Although the strength of the mother's family is weak.However, Wang Lizhen's background in a family of officials has not disappeared. She can also tell the domestic and international policy situation, which is stronger than ordinary officials.

Among a group of women in the Su family, she is one of the few who hold leadership positions.Therefore, these words are also very powerful.

To the layman's ears, it still looks similar.

Sioux City just said lightly: "Low oil prices are what Saudi Arabia and the UAE want."

"The seller thinks the goods are expensive?" Wang Lizhen smiled.

But she soon discovered that the academics at the policy research center over there were not laughing.

Professor Dai seemed to wake up and coughed.Explained in a moderate tone: "In OPEC, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates are one faction. They have high oil reserves and a small population. The geographical environment is poor and the ability to attract foreign investment is weak. Therefore, they The purpose of pursuing the low oil price policy is to curb the development of alternative energy sources in order to sell the huge oil resources as soon as possible. Countries such as Iran, Libya, and Iraq have relatively small oil reserves, large populations, and good geographical locations and environments. Therefore, they We hope to sell oil at the highest possible price to obtain the funds needed for economic construction. In this, 30 US dollars is a threshold, such as ethanol and other alternative energy sources, which need more than 30 US dollars per barrel of oil to be profitable..."

As he talked, Professor Dai's thinking became clear, and he asked, "Does Chairman Su think that apart from the war itself, there are no other factors that will affect the price of oil?"

Without Sioux City answering, he continued: "The excuse for Iraq's invasion of Kuwait was that Kuwait produced a large amount of crude oil, which caused a sharp drop in oil prices. The current situation is that Saudi Arabia and other countries have attracted the United States. If they win, OPEC will definitely be in a position to Countries such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are under control, and countries such as Iraq and Iran are expected to abandon the high oil price policy... So, if the direct consequences of the war are not serious, oil prices will recover quickly, right?"

Sioux City didn't think so much, and smiled: "Almost. I think that wars belong to wars, and oil production belongs to oil production. In countries like Saudi Arabia, where a needle can blow out, the oil production system is still very strong. Yes. The most vulnerable place is the communication line, but Iraq cannot block it for a long time."

With Professor Dai's foreshadowing, Su Cheng's thoughts were immediately elevated.The relaxed state has been praised by everyone. Not every young man over the age of age can be honored or humiliated, and the "Golden Luan Palace" has a clear mind.

Wang Lizhen was speechless.Zhu Enbo, Director Huang and others also fell into deep thinking.

They are not afraid of the sharp drop in oil prices at this moment. After all, what Sioux Cheng and Professor Dai described is also a mid- to long-term judgment.In their view, the problem now is the choice of profit point, when and at what price to close the position...

Zhang Chao nodded slightly to Su Cheng.

Su Cheng glanced at the screen from afar, then nodded back.

Su Zhenguo noticed this, and said, "Go ahead if you have something to do, don't worry about us."

"They can handle it well, just follow the established plan." Su Cheng doesn't care about the Su family, but he can't ignore so many senior cadres.Dahua Industry will continue to be in China. Although there is no need to flatter the horse, it is not allowed to put the labels of "maverick" and "out of place" on the door plate of Dahua Industry.

Su Zhenguo invited so many people here just to see Su Cheng, so he naturally asked, "What's your plan?"

"Every 10 minutes or so, buy an empty order of 100 million barrels." Sioux Cheng went on to explain: "I have prepared a fund of 2 million U.S. dollars, and the full position is 3 million U.S. dollars. The current position is only more than 10 million, which is still very empty. Every [-] million Buying an order in minutes is just right to digest. Moreover, oil prices are slowly rising, and delaying purchases is also more conducive to spreading costs.”

Su Dongyuan said strangely: "You see that the price of oil is rising, and you still buy or sell?"

From the late 80s to the early 90s, it can be regarded as the first year of China's capital.New things such as Zhengzhou's grain futures trading market, Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, and joint-stock banks all appeared in this short period of three to five years.Leaders in senior positions at this time have a certain understanding of this.During the Gulf crisis, many people even specially took supplementary lessons.

Therefore, everyone present knew the basics of the futures market, Duan Yuanguang, Cao Jiyuan and others whispered in private.

Su Cheng had no choice but to explain: "I think it will fall soon. Once bad news appears, the market is likely to be smashed by a huge amount of empty orders, so you have to make a move in advance."

"Then why do you have to buy it for a sum?" This time it was Director Mao who asked the question, and his status as a National Development and Reform Commission completely made up for the small gap in rank.

Su Cheng laughed twice and said, "I don't know when the inflection point of oil prices will appear. If it keeps rising, the position will be liquidated if there is no cash in hand. Besides, what if I make a wrong judgment."

He spoke the truth.He only had a general impression of the oil price trend before the Gulf War, around $32, which was deduced based on other data. God knows how much it can go right. He originally thought it was only $33.However, the reality is that the price of oil on the London Exchange exceeds $33, which is more than expected.

However, if all the funds are put up, if the thief is unreasonable, the accident will make people vomit blood.

His thoughts are unknown to others, but when Su Cheng was full of confidence, he said such a sentence, which made people laugh.

Su Zhenguo smiled and said, "If you're not sure, don't invest so much."

Su Cheng said as a matter of course: "I'm [-]% to [-]% sure, if you don't dare to go all-in, then you shouldn't be at the gambling table!"

In a word, the whispering stopped.The heavy generals of the Su family nodded their heads one after another, not because what Su Cheng said was good, but because of the compatibility of their personalities.The members of the Su faction, headed by Su Zhenguo, have always been daring to fight and fight hard. Naturally, they like Su Cheng's bold, tenacious, tenacious and alert character.

After a while, Zhang Chao motioned to Su Cheng again.

Su Cheng still looked at his watch, then nodded.

After Zhang Chao confirmed, he broke down the task.Traders from the Dahua Strategic Business Unit picked up the phone and dialed London, and then the traders from the City of London over there completed the actual purchase process.

Unlike the new century, the futures exchange in 1991 still had a certain delay in the process from people to data

It took about half a minute before the trader made a successful gesture.

One of Dahua's own recorders, after reconfirmation, drew a small red line on the blackboard for recording.Adding the one drawn in front, it happens to be a "positive", which represents the 500 million barrels of crude oil purchased later.

These crude oils were purchased during a period when oil prices were slowly rising.

At the same time, at the request of Zhu Enbo, the staff of the State Reserve Material Adjustment Center slowly took in more orders.Although there is a difference in quantity, in essence, Dahua Industrial and the State Reserve Material Adjustment Center are actually out of a state of gambling.

Those who know will not pierce the window skin, and those who don't know still don't know.

Before there is no result, no one dares to say that they have chosen the right side.Those who do not choose sides will try their best to put themselves aside.

In another 10 minutes, the oil price fluctuated several times and climbed over the small mark of 33.5 US dollars.Many cheered softly.

Su Zhenguo and others looked at Su Cheng, just in time to see him nodding again.

Another red line was drawn lightly on the blackboard.

Then another, and another.

But the price of oil is still going up bit by bit.

It seems to be against it.

……