super energy power

Both Sioux City and Dahua's main traders are born with pressure.Losing $10 if you are late for a second, and losing a zero if you shake your hand, I have lived for a long time, and I have long been used to working under pressure.

No matter how high-end Zhou Lao Su Lao is, it can only exert its effect for 3 minutes at most. Once you get used to it, you won't feel nervous.

The traders gradually became familiar with the venue, and their movements became methodical and fast.It didn't take long for the trader who picked up the phone to return to the state of roaring: "50 barrels is right, $26.12..."

Occasionally, when a trader turned his head to see the curious gazes of Zhou Lao and others, the volume would suddenly weaken, from a roar to a whisper, but it would return to normal after a while.

The staff of the hospital office passing by were extremely curious, and some simply stood and looked around. The State Council has never been so busy, it looks like a township government.The two interns also stared at the screen with their eyes wide open. For the two young girls who just graduated, international futures trading is really a curious and unfamiliar term.

The oil price at the beginning of the opening on January 1 was calm, as if yesterday's violent shocks had overdrawn today's changes, just like the Gulf crisis in the last six months overdrawn the fluctuations of the Gulf War.

Whether it's because people are tired, or it's because of risk advances, if we only look at the initial curve, today's futures market does not look like war.

Only Su Cheng knew that with the war entering the city, a huge crest had arrived irresistibly.

Once the Gulf War starts, the price of oil will go up like a wild swan that has run loose, and then turn sharply down after exceeding 42 US dollars, and drop to a minimum of 18 US dollars.

Although it is often said that oil prices fluctuate wildly, there has never been a two-hour swing so violent in the history of world oil prices.It's not just a sharp rise, it's a sharp fall.Soared from around $25 to $42.Then it fell from $42 to below $30, like a roller coaster ride.

However, this is by no means a game.Not only will someone need to pay hundreds of millions of dollars for this, ordinary consumers will also pay additional costs due to heightened risks.Only a few can make money, maybe.Only those oil trusts with access to the Bush family circle benefited from news of the war.

I believe that there are many people who can predict the rise of oil prices, but those who can predict the decline of oil prices after 2 hours are probably rare.The Americans can decide when the war starts, but they cannot decide when the victory will be established.

If, according to the Chinese media, the Gulf War was another quagmire of the Vietnam War, then the price of oil would have to skyrocket to $100.

In just a few minutes, 00 million barrels of oil were bought, plus those bought before the market closed yesterday.Dahua Industrial's long orders reached 3000 million barrels, which was equivalent to the number of short orders on the day.

Zhang Chao whispered and reminded: "The total amount is 7.8 million US dollars, do you want to continue buying?"

"Continue." He hesitated.Sioux City explained to the senior officials behind it: "Because oil prices will fall. We have to prepare a certain amount of cash to deal with bad situations. However, if we don't buy oil now, we won't be able to buy it when the war starts. At that time, Many people will set a selling price, which is their psychological price. When the time comes, the psychological price will often be higher than the final price. Therefore, when the oil price soars, there are usually only buying orders and no selling orders. The opposite is also the same. To plan in advance..."

"But if there is no war, you will lose if you buy it now." Director Huang added with a smile: "For 3000 million barrels of oil, if it rises by one dollar, it will earn 1 million dollars, and if it falls by one dollar, it will lose 3000 million dollars."

Several people looked at each other, secretly speechless.

It is normal for the leaders of the State Council to sign tens of millions, but there are not various considerations behind each signing.How could such a decision be made on the attribution of 3000 million US dollars.

Elder Zhou nodded and said, "In this way, does the futures market magnify the risk?"

"If you don't want to take risks, you can use hedging." Su Cheng explained again, saying: "Our National Reserve Center is using this method now to ensure that our metal prices remain unchanged. It will not make money and will not Losing money. The speculators are what I do now, and they actually sit on the market, which is the process of discovering value. In addition, it is also a kind of competition for pricing power.”

"Competition for pricing power?" This concept has long existed, especially in third world countries. In the 90s, African and Asian countries were very dependent on agricultural products, but the pricing power of agricultural products was in the hands of European and American countries.At that time, China also felt deeply about this.

Sioux City asked Zhang Chao to keep track of the traders' movements, and he accompanied Zhou Laodao: "Oil, like many commodities, is mainly traded in the futures market. Compared with the futures market, the price of the spot market lags behind, but it generally It is going towards the price of the futures market. The influence of other institutions is only on the basis of the market, and cannot replace the market. Like oil, our current trading price is 26 US dollars, so no matter which company or Saudi Arabian Oil Company Go talk, he floats $3 at most, and most of the time, he wants more. This kind of lag is not a good thing for us.”

"Oh?"

Professor Dai chuckled, and said: "Sioux City's lag will cause a premium in Asia. The price of crude oil shipped to Asia is more expensive than crude oil shipped to Europe and the United States. This is because there is no successful crude oil in Asia right now. Trading platform. We can only use North Sea Brent crude oil on the London Stock Exchange, or WTI in New York for trading, and they cannot reflect the real supply and demand relationship..."

Mr. Zhou said slowly: "That is to say, this futures market is a negotiation process?"

"Yes, everyone will come up with real money to talk, and those who talk nonsense will lose money." Professor Dai's words made everyone laugh.

Duan Yuanguang squinted his eyes, looked at the screen and said, "Americans are negotiating when they fight a war. You can be sure in Sucheng that they can talk today?"

"We are not very sure, but because everyone is not sure, we can buy a large amount of oil. When everyone is sure, such a large amount will not be easy to buy."

"So you'd rather do it at a loss?"

"It has to be endured." Su Cheng smiled, and said tentatively: "I was also forced to have no other choice. When the futures are finished, we have to invest all the funds in the construction of the petrochemical base. , and will no longer do such business in the future.”

He didn't mention the Haicang project, only the petrochemical base.For the central government, the Haicang Project has not only economic significance, but also political significance, which cannot be replaced by Dahua.Dahua's petrochemical base will be supported only from purely economic considerations.

At present, neither Mr. Zhou nor Su Zhenguo will express their views lightly.

Professor Dai said: "War is hard to talk about. If you fight for a long time, you will be in trouble."

"We predict that the international futures market will be sensitive to war for a very short period of time. Once the war starts, we will go in and come out." Sioux City was a little unclear.

"The sensitive time is very short?" Professor Dai frowned, and said half curiously: "Su Cheng, you mean that the war will be won or lost in a very short time?"

"Once it is determined that Saddam is not going to fight back, the price of oil will come down. There is no doubt that the United States will start the war with air strikes. If Iraq's air defenses do not work, or if they work, either way, we have a very short period of time." Then we will know the result." Su Cheng suddenly had a very refreshing feeling, mainly because the place is more magical and the audience is more high-end, so he couldn't help but add: "The air raid should start in the early morning, I think it's about the same."

In addition to experts on Middle East issues like Professor Dai, Mr. Zhou also had a fat expert who was doing military consulting.He couldn't get in the way just now, but now that Su Cheng started to comment on the war, he couldn't help but said: "War is not determined by air strikes alone, there are also ground war factors. The United States may bomb Baghdad, but the number of civilians there is so large." There are too many, and the effect is difficult to analyze. If Saddam hides troops among the people, it is possible that there will be no effect.”

Even the words of the Tibetan soldiers and the people were spoken, Su Cheng expressed his helplessness and said: "The Iraqi troops can't hide forever, right? If they don't gather, how can they fight?"

"Assembly at the necessary time is enough. Ground warfare or urban warfare does not require too long assembly time. Only when the Americans are under heavy logistical pressure will it take a long time to assemble."

Sioux City immediately surrendered and said, "I don't understand war, but from my point of view, it doesn't matter how many troops there are. If Iraq's heavy equipment is destroyed, say 40%, and the air defense facilities are ineffective, then from the war From a perspective, Iraq is doomed. As for ground wars, Iraqi and Kuwaiti oil is no longer on the futures market, so if their troops cannot get out of the country, the war is explained.”

"The strength of Iraq's armored forces is very strong. After camouflaging, it is impossible to destroy 40% of them..."

The fat expert only spoke half of what he said, and Su Cheng stopped listening, because the white line on the futures market began to float upwards.

Director Huang's eyes were red with anticipation of getting rid of the set. The security deposit of the State Reserve had reached 6000 million US dollars. If the oil price did not rise again, he really had no choice but to jump off the building.At this time, although he only saw the rise of less than 1 dollar, he still asked excitedly: "Is the war starting?"

Everyone looked over.

Zhang Chao shook his head and said, "There are a lot of people entering the arena."

This is someone who got the news in advance.Just as Su Cheng was thinking, the phone on the table rang. A secretary went to answer the phone, and when he came over, he whispered to Mr. Zhou and Su Zhenguo.

Taking advantage of no one around, Director Huang said to Su Cheng in a low voice: "Director Su, please give me a hand, let's advance and retreat together."

He is in his 40s, and he considers himself a brother, and he is indeed driven to a dead end.

……