Late Yuan Dynasty: I am the true emperor

Chapter 498 The Blitzkrieg-Style Northern Expedition (Part Two)
Once the order for the Eastern Route Army to launch its attack was issued, Lu Jin began to stare at the map all day, silently calculating the speed and time of the advance of each army, as well as predicting the Yuan court's reaction speed.

The Northern Expedition has been going on for a while now. The battles aren't exactly fierce, but they're still incredibly tense. It's less like a war and more like a race against time.

The vanguard of the central army, the cavalry led by Zhou Dexing, arrived in Yuci on the sixth day of the ninth month. By then, they should have already been discovered by the Shuo Si Jian. It is assumed that the Shuo Si Jian issued a warning to Dadu on the sixth day.

So, the shortest route from Taiyuan to Dadu was to first go through Jingxing Pass to Zhengding, and then from Zhengding to Dadu, a distance of about 800 to 900 li. With the well-developed postal system in ancient times, people and horses could be changed continuously, and urgent military intelligence could be conveyed by traveling 500 li a day. So, at most two days, the Yuan court in Dadu would receive news that the main force of the Shengwu Army was attacking Taiyuan, which would be the eighth or ninth day of the ninth lunar month.

But now there is a question: does the Yuan Dynasty's postal station system in Dadu still exist?

The Yuan Dynasty's post stations had station owners responsible for raising horses and delivering official documents. These station owners were responsible for their own profits and losses. If a horse died, the station owner had to pay compensation to the government. If they couldn't afford to pay, they would borrow money at high interest rates. If they couldn't repay, they would sell themselves into slavery. Because of these various drawbacks, the Yuan Dynasty's post station system had long been in trouble.

Moreover, most of the cities have long since reached the point where grain supplies have dried up and people are resorting to cannibalism. If people can't even survive, how can the station households afford to raise horses?
So, assuming there were no station keeper, and the messenger relied solely on his own mount to relay orders without changing horses, a horse could only run continuously for a maximum of 300 li before it would die of exhaustion. Therefore, the most likely scenario was that he would have to change horses along the way, for example, once from Taiyuan to Zhengding, once from Zhengding to Baoding, and then run all the way from Baoding to Dadu.

However, this would definitely slow down the speed of military intelligence transmission. Lu Jin made a conservative estimate: assuming a daily travel distance of 300 li, it would take three days, that is, the ninth or tenth day, for Dadu to receive news of the Shengwu Army's attack on Taiyuan.

Next, Xiao Tieguo needs to determine Lu Jin's strategic objective this time: whether he only intends to attack Shanxi or to launch a full-scale northern expedition.
However, with Shanxi occupied by the Holy Martial Army, Hebei gained an absolute geographical advantage from a superior position. Little Iron Pot certainly dared not gamble, so he had no choice but to flee. But even if he fled, he needed to make some preparations, pack his things, and make arrangements for his affairs. Let's say it took a day, so his time to flee would be either the tenth day of the month or the eleventh day of the ninth month.

With the Holy Martial Army already having reached Taiyuan, the chances of him running to Zhangjiakou are slim. The most likely scenario is that he will take the coastal route to Liaodong first, and then turn to Goryeo, or take the Lulong Road and Pinggang Road to head north to Shangdu Kaiping.

It's 600 li from Dadu to Kaiping. With his family in tow, Xiao Tieguo certainly couldn't run fast. Even a estimate of 50 li a day would be an overestimation. So it would take him at least 12 days to get to Kaiping.

Getting to Jinzhou would be even further. He would first travel from Dadu to Qinhuangdao, and then from Qinhuangdao to Jinzhou, a journey of a thousand li (approximately 500 kilometers). It would take him about twenty days to travel that far. Even if he started traveling on the tenth of the month, he would not arrive in Jinzhou until the end of September or the beginning of October.

The sea route from Dengzhou to Jinzhou is blown by northwest winds during this season. In ancient times, there was a well-established sea route from Dengzhou to Jinzhou called the Laotieshan Sea Route. When the wind was favorable, a sailboat could travel in three to four hours, or six to eight hours. However, when the wind was against the wind, it would take one to two days, generally around 36 hours.

Lu Jin received the news of Chang Yuchun's arrival in Yuci on the ninth day of the month. He immediately ordered Yang Jing that the Eastern Route Army should board the ship on the tenth day of the month and arrive in Jinzhou two days against the wind, which would be September 12th. At that time, Xiao Tieguo had probably only just finished packing and left the city a day ago. Even if he ran for his life towards Jinzhou, he could not possibly be faster than Yang Jing's Eastern Route Army. Taking the coastal route was definitely not feasible.

So what about taking the Pinggang Road and Lulong Road to Shangdu Kaiping? That would also take twelve days, possibly until September 22nd or 23rd.

Yu Tonghai is expected to land in Jinzhou on September 12th. After landing, he will immediately move towards Songzhou at high speed. If he travels 100 li per day, he will be able to reach Songzhou by September 17th and block the northern entrance of Pinggang Road and Lulong Road. This will be at least five to six days faster than Xiaotieguo. Even if Yu Tonghai is a little slower, as long as the error is within five days, he will definitely be able to block Xiaotieguo!
Having calculated the time involved, and knowing that as long as Yu Tonghai didn't mess things up, even if they could only travel eighty li a day, they were absolutely confident they could stop Xiao Tieguo, Lu Jin rubbed his temples and let out a long sigh of relief.

He has already laid a trap for the little iron pot, with ambushes on all sides. Now let's see how this guy can escape.
Seeing that Lu Jin had finally stopped staring at the map, Li Dingbang, who had been waiting for half a day with the meal in his hands, finally dared to come forward and say in his hoarse voice, "Your Majesty, it's time to eat."

"okay."

Lu Jin turned around and went to the dining table. Li Dingbang immediately set out the bowls and chopsticks beside her. Remembering Li Dingbang's voice earlier, Lu Jin suddenly looked at him and asked with a smile, "Dingbang, you're sixteen this year, aren't you?"

Li Dingbang immediately nodded, "Your Majesty remembers correctly, I am fifteen years old this year, or sixteen by the traditional Chinese age reckoning."

Listening to his voice and looking at the downy hair on his lips, Lu Jin smiled again, "Sixteen years old, you're going through puberty, and the downy hair on your lips is getting thicker. You'll soon be a man. You've been with me for three years now, what career do you want to pursue in the future?"

Li Dingbang immediately clasped his hands and said, "If it weren't for Your Majesty's shelter, my father and I would have died by the roadside long ago, becoming two nameless skeletons in this chaotic world. Your Majesty's kindness to my father and me is like giving us a second life. I don't know how to repay this kindness. I don't have any great ambitions. I just want to stay by Your Majesty's side and stand guard for Your Majesty for the rest of my life."

Lu Jin picked up a piece of food, but upon hearing this, he said, "What kind of talk is it to stand guard for me for the rest of my life? You have learned a lot from the masters, from Confucianism and the Gongshu school, as well as military operations, artillery bastions. You have been following me around all day and have been exposed to a lot. Now you are still an officer in the Imperial Guard. Have you never thought about going out to lead troops, serving on the battlefield, and making meritorious achievements in the future?"

Li Dingbang immediately replied, "I am Your Majesty's soldier. If Your Majesty commands me to lead troops into battle, then I will go."

“That’s more like it.” Lu Jin nodded and said, “But let’s forget about it for now. In a few years, you will definitely have the opportunity to go to the battlefield. You have learned so many skills. It would be a waste of your talents to just stand guard for me. I named you Dingbang so that you would settle down and bring peace to the country. If you really want to stand guard, you should go to the frontier and stand guard for the country.”

Upon hearing this, Li Dingbang cupped his hands again and said, "Your Majesty, I will obey. Wherever Your Majesty commands me to stand guard, I will go."

Lu Jin nodded, and while eating, asked again, "What do you think of the battle plans for this Northern Expedition?"

Li Dingbang knew that Lu Jin was testing him, so he thought for a moment before saying, "Your Majesty's plan is meticulous, and the timing of the advance of the various armies is closely linked. I cannot see any flaws."

"However, this long-distance incursion between the central and eastern armies, requiring them to march such long distances every day, will likely exhaust many soldiers. Therefore, I think it would be better if we had more horses and cavalry, so that we can maintain high-speed mobility without making the soldiers too tired."

Upon hearing this, Lu Jin said, "Wrong, that's a mistake in your understanding."

Li Dingbang, puzzled, asked curiously, "What's wrong?"

Lu Jin immediately instructed, "The mistake lies in the judgment of the mobility of infantry and cavalry. In fact, no one can run as fast as a horse on foot during long-distance marches."

"This, how is this possible?" Li Dingbang frowned in confusion.

"First, horses' endurance is actually not as good as that of humans. When horses sprint over short distances, humans can't catch up. But when it comes to endurance, there is no animal in the world that can compare to humans. You might not see the difference in three to five days, but if you make a horse march 100 li every day for five consecutive days, the horse will probably be too tired to run anymore, while a human can continue to run."

"Of course, if you each have three or four mounts and take turns riding them every day, then disregard what I said. But if we were to build a large-scale cavalry force capable of independent combat with this configuration, have you calculated how many horses we would need? A division would require around 50,000 horses. Even if we emptied our coffers, we might not have that many warhorses."

Li Dingbang nodded, and Lu Jin continued.

"Secondly, the logistical costs of horses are actually much greater than those of people. A soldier can eat a maximum of three catties of rice and vegetables a day, while a horse in wartime needs to eat at least 5% of its own body weight. If it is a Mongolian horse weighing six or seven hundred catties, it will eat about 33 catties a day, and a hundred catties in three days. If it is a fine horse like Yao Guang, it will eat at least fifty or sixty catties a day. The logistical capacity of supplying one horse is enough to feed ten to twenty soldiers."

"Moreover, horses need to eat grass. Grass doesn't weigh much and takes up space, unlike grain. You can carry 3,000 catties of grain in one cart, but you might not be able to carry that much grass. How many people would be needed for transportation and logistics? Without a continuous supply of logistics, even if you have a cavalry, how far can you go? Your cavalry may be fast, but can your logistics keep up?"

Upon hearing this, Li Dingbang scratched his head and asked in confusion, "It's autumn now, the season when the grass and water are most abundant. Can't we let the horses graze on their own while marching?"

Lu Jin explained again, "It is possible, but horses are straight-gut animals. There is a saying that horses will not get fat without night grass. They eat and then defecate, so they can't hold anything in their stomachs."

“Continuous long-distance marches are an extremely physically demanding activity. If you expect warhorses to survive and maintain their strength by eating wild grass and not feed them grain, they would probably have to eat from morning till night. In a day of twelve hours, a horse would have to eat eleven and a half hours, leaving only half an hour for activity. How could your cavalry possibly keep moving forward?”

Upon hearing this, Li Dingbang opened his mouth, still quite puzzled, and asked, "But I've heard those scholars say that Huo Qubing, the Marquis of Champion during the Han Dynasty, sealed the Wolf-Dwelling Mountain and drank from the vast sea. How did his cavalry manage to travel such a long distance?"

Lu Jin then explained again, "There are two reasons. First, he used warhorses as consumables. Second, he was fighting without a rear or logistics support. If the horses died, he could just go and rob the Xiongnu again."

"Among Huo Qubing's troops, there were a large number of surrendered Xiongnu soldiers, and later there were six Xiongnu generals who were ennobled along with him."

"Six Xiongnu marquises? So many?!" Li Dingbang exclaimed in surprise.

"Indeed, these Xiongnu people knew every inch of the grassland well. They knew exactly where the water sources were and where the Xiongnu grazing lands were. Li Guang, who was from the same period, got lost many times, while Huo Qubing never got lost during his expeditions of thousands of miles. This was all thanks to these surrendered Xiongnu soldiers."

"With these people as guides, he can sustain himself through war. If there is no food, he will steal the livestock of the Xiongnu. If his warhorses are exhausted and die from running, he will steal the warhorses of the Xiongnu. In this way, he can sustain himself through war and maintain high-speed mobility on the grassland, making it impossible for the Xiongnu to catch him or guess where he will appear next."

"But this style of warfare also comes at a cost. It consumes too many horses. Even though he could plunder the Xiongnu to sustain the war effort, after several major battles, the 37 warhorses the Han Dynasty had accumulated since the reigns of Emperors Wen and Jing were quickly depleted. "Since Emperor Wu's conquest of the Hexi Corridor, Huo Qubing's sealing of the Wolf-Dwelling Mountain, and the watering of the Han Sea, which forced the Xiongnu to flee far north into the Gobi Desert, leaving no royal court south of it, the Han Dynasty almost never launched large-scale military campaigns against the grasslands during Emperor Wu's reign. Do you know why?"

"Because Huo Qubing died young?"

"This is only one reason. Another reason is that the Han Dynasty's 37 warhorses were almost exhausted and could no longer support expeditions like Huo Qubing's."

"..." Li Dingbang was speechless and surprised for a moment, then he asked, "What about the Tang Dynasty? The Tang Dynasty also frequently went to war with foreign countries, so they should have had even more horses, right?"

"At its peak, the Tang Dynasty had about 75 warhorses, but they were also consumables. In the later period of the Tang Dynasty, the Tang army rode mules and donkeys to march, and then dismounted to fight on foot when they arrived at the destination. At the same time, the territory of the Tang Dynasty was gradually shrinking, and a lot of land in the Western Regions was also abandoned."

Li Dingbang was stunned. Lu Jin's words were somewhat contrary to his understanding. After all, the child was only 16 years old. He never thought that the warhorse would be a disposable item.

Then he asked, "Doesn't that mean that the more horses a country owns, the larger its territory will be?"

"You can think that way, but that's not entirely true."

"What do you mean?"

Lu Jin added, "Strictly speaking, it is the transportation and strategic projection capabilities that determine the territory a country can maintain, but whether the means of transportation are horses is not necessarily the case."

"Suppose there is a new means of transportation that can transport an army of hundreds of thousands of men to a place thousands of miles away in a very short time, such as a few days or half a month. Then even without warhorses, you can still drive out the invading enemy with only infantry, and thus the country's territory can be maintained."

“But how is that possible? If we don’t rely on horses, what other means of transportation are there? Carts? But carts also need oxen and horses to pull them. Boats are feasible; we can build a large fleet to transport troops and supplies. But places with rivers, lakes, and seas are fine, but without horses, how do we get to places like the Western Regions and the northern grasslands?” Li Dingbang was still somewhat puzzled.

Lu Jin said while eating, "You'll understand later, but you must remember that horses are inherently unsuitable for the Central Plains Dynasty. To raise good horses, you need to let them run freely, but every inch of land in the Central Plains should be cultivated into farmland, so where are the good fields to serve as pastures for horses?"
"Moreover, after being trampled by horses' hooves, the soil becomes hard and compacted, and the horse manure is acidic, making it difficult to use for composting. Horses are also particularly prone to disease, have a stubborn temperament, are very delicate, eat more than cows and donkeys, and are not as useful as cows and donkeys in terms of work. For farmers who settle down in agriculture, raising horses is a losing business from the start."

"To expect to compete with the nomadic tribes of the grasslands using cavalry is like using one's own weakness to attack the enemy's strength. It's like a beggar comparing his treasures to that of an emperor. We certainly can't win."

"Even if we manage to raise over a million horses, the resources consumed will be several times greater than those of nomadic herding. If this prolonged standoff continues, we will find it difficult to sustain ourselves. At most, we can be as prosperous as the Han and Tang dynasties for a few decades. Once the warhorses are exhausted and the country is unable to support the huge expenses of raising horses, the country will begin to decline, and enemies from all sides will surround us."

Li Dingbang was still somewhat confused and asked, "Then what should we do?"

"What should we do? Of course, we should play to our strengths and avoid our weaknesses, using our strengths to attack their weaknesses," Lu Jin said, putting down her chopsticks after finishing her meal.

"I'll give you an assignment: Compared to nomadic life, what are our strengths and weaknesses in farming? Why were the Central Plains dynasties still able to maintain an advantage over the Xiongnu and Turks during the Han and Tang dynasties, while the Liao, Jin, and Mongol enemies became so powerful and difficult to defeat during the Song dynasty?"

"Besides the inherent disadvantages of the Song Dynasty, such as the lack of the Sixteen Prefectures of Yan and Yun, the lack of terrain barriers, and the shortage of horses, what are the differences between the Song Dynasty army and the armies of the Han and Tang Dynasties? How are the three enemies, Liao, Jin, and Yuan, different from the Xiongnu and Turks?"

"Think about this problem carefully, or you can ask others for advice. Come back and tell me when you have the answer."

"Yes, Your Majesty, I have noted it down."

Li Wenzhong is a promising young military talent, and he's so young. He's been following Lu Jin since he was 13, and he's only 16 now. Lu Jin plans to nurture this young man so that he can play an even greater role than he has in history.

The generals of the Holy Martial Army are currently relatively young, and can be roughly divided into five echelons.

Liao Yong'an, Yu Tingyu and their group of Chaohu veterans, along with Zhu Liangzu, are all between 30 and 40 years old now. They are considered the first echelon and hold positions at the level of general and army commander.

The three Yu brothers can be considered part of the second tier along with Xu Da and his group. They are all in their early twenties. For example, Xu Da is 22 years old, Chang Yuchun is 24, Yang Jing is 21, Yu Tonghai is 24, Yu Tongyuan is 23, Yu Tongyuan is 21, and Mao Gui, Fu Youde, and Bian Yuanheng are also under thirty.

The highest-ranking members of this group are Yang Jing and Chang Yuchun, who have both become army commanders. Yu Tonghai is the general of an army group. Xu Da and Mao Gui, who are less experienced, have also reached the positions of army commander and deputy general. Only Bian Yuanheng and Fu Youde are currently only supervisors.

When the first echelon retires in the future, this group will become the generals who will lead the future.

Besides these, the third echelon consisted mainly of the Imperial Guards, including young men aged seventeen or eighteen, such as Lu Zhongheng, Guo Ying, and Tang Shengzong.

The fourth group consists of Li Dingbang (Li Wenzhong), Zhu Shouqian (Zhu Wenzheng), Deng Youde (Deng Yu), Lan Yu, and others. These young men are all around fifteen or sixteen years old and are generally still at the battalion or regimental level.

The fifth echelon is represented by Song Sheng and Mu Ying, but these two kids are only about ten years old. It's still a long way from when they will become generals. However, Lu Jin has already started to train these generals.

In the early stages, we can rely on these people to hold things together. Once Lu Jin completes the military reform and the Shengwu Army is fully armed with firearms, and the military academy is established, even if these people are gone, a steady stream of great generals will surely emerge under the new system and military academy training model.

Then, selections will be made from actual combat records. Combined with the General Staff system, Lu Jin is not afraid that after his death, future emperors will have no generals to use.
While Lu Jin was remotely commanding the various armies at the front, he was also training the future generals of the empire. Meanwhile, Chang Yuchun and Yu Tonghai at the front were not idle either.

On the ninth day of the ninth lunar month, after Liao Yong'an's Third Army Group arrived at the city of Taiyuan, Chang Yuchun immediately led his troops out again. They arrived at Xinzhou on the tenth day and at Guozhou on the eleventh day. A few dozen miles ahead of Guozhou was Yanmen Pass in Daizhou.

Chang Yuchun had long planned how to attack Yanmen Pass. He led a tired army that had been on a long and high-speed march. Using such an army for a siege would cause heavy casualties. If he failed to capture Yanmen Pass after a long siege and was stuck there, he would be unable to complete the mission assigned to him by Lu Jin.

Therefore, Chang Yuchun made a decision: the attack on Yanmen Pass must not be a direct assault, but a clever strategy. How should they attack? By feigning a siege!
He ordered Zhou Dexing's vanguard cavalry regiment, which was running ahead, to change into the Yuan army uniforms and armor captured in the night raid on Yuci a few days earlier. They were dressed as Yuan soldiers with their hair loose and their robes fastened on the left. Moreover, Zhou Dexing's newly formed cavalry regiment originally had many Sichuan Mongol soldiers under the command of Dashibadulu, so they looked just as convincing as Yuan soldiers.

Then the group rushed to the pass. Zhou Dexing immediately sent his Mongol soldiers to knock on the gate, saying that the main force of the Shengwu Army had already reached Taiyuan. Shuo Sijian was worried that they would continue north and bypass Yanmen Pass to attack Datong and Shangdu, so he specially sent them to Yanmen Pass to assist in the defense.

The Yuan soldiers guarding Yanmen Pass actually believed it, because the messenger sent by the commander of the Imperial Guard to inform Dadu had just passed through here two days ago, saying that the main force of the Red Turbans had reached Taiyuan and that they should strengthen the defense of Yanmen Pass. Look, the reinforcements to help defend the pass have arrived.

What? You're saying these people are Red Turbans in disguise? Are you kidding me? The Red Turbans only arrived at Taiyuan on the eighth day of the ninth lunar month. Does that mean Taiyuan doesn't need to be attacked?
Even if they don't attack Taiyuan and head straight for Yanmen Pass, it's still 280 li from Taiyuan to Yanmen Pass. It's impossible for the enemy to get here in just two or three days. So this must be reinforcements sent by the commander to help defend the area!
Then, the Yuan soldiers guarding the pass foolishly opened the gates. Zhou Dexing, seeing this, immediately led his troops in and captured Yanmen Pass with minimal effort, opening a passage for Chang Yuchun's main force and allowing the main force of the Ninth Army to maintain its high-speed march.
After a good night's rest in Guozhou, the army resumed its march at dawn the next day. At noon on the 12th, Chang Yuchun led the main force of the Ninth Army Group across Yanmen Pass at high speed and arrived in Jincheng at dusk on the 12th.

At noon on the 13th, Zhou Dexing used the same trick again, impersonating Yuan soldiers to trick the gates of Datong into opening. Chang Yuchun arrived in Datong that evening.

Because it was located in the 'rear area', the Yuan army left almost no garrison in Datong, and it was easily captured by Chang Yuchun.

However, having already reached Datong, there was no need for the entire army to continue the assault. Blocking the pass at Junduxing did not require an entire army group. Therefore, he left all the wounded and sick soldiers in Datong, and ordered Wang Zhiyuan to lead the 44th Army to Datong to maintain order. He also dispatched detachments to persuade other nearby cities to surrender, and left the vanguard regiment and artillery regiment of the Imperial Guard Division that was with them in Datong.

Chang Yuchun led only his 43rd Army, Zhou Dexing's cavalry regiment, and an Imperial Guard musketeer regiment, totaling more than 30,000 troops, and continued to rush from Datong toward the plateau of Yefuling (Zhangbei).

Meanwhile, Yu Tonghai on the eastern route had successfully landed in Jinzhou and was marching at high speed toward Daning.

With both armies simultaneously advancing behind Dadu, Xiaotieguo was now completely trapped with nowhere to escape.

(End of this chapter)