Coquettish Rebirth

() While Jia Hongjian and Mr. Zhu and others were planning to arrange a way out for the future laid-off northern workers, the world was also changing step by step.First of all, at the end of May, the funds of the government of Thailand were gradually exhausted.From the end of February to the beginning of March, Soros began to attack the exchange rate of the Thai baht like a fish when fishing, and at the same time began to let the exchange rate of the Thai baht fluctuate up and down, so as to wipe out other speculators and retail investors .

After three months of non-stop "fishing", Thailand's funds are about to run out.Originally, before Soros started to fluctuate and consolidate, he had received about 150 billion US dollars in forward Thai baht contracts, and then used three months to continuously sell contracts to suppress the Thai baht exchange rate and then took advantage of the low price. When it was time to raise the Thai baht exchange rate, they directly began to absorb the forward Thai baht contract. It can be said that in the past three months, that was the process of Soros and the others continuously exhausting the Bank of Thailand's funds!

In these 3 months, Thailand not only spent the 300 billion U.S. dollars it used to rescue the market, but also took in the 150 billion U.S. dollars it borrowed urgently from the IMF International Monetary Fund!It can be said that at this time, the Thai government has no money to save its own baht exchange rate! . .

And then, at the end of May, after Soros and others discovered that Thailand's government had no money, their vicious fangs began to bite Thailand's neck fiercely, and they no longer played any concussion consolidation Yes, they have now got a lot of baht forward contracts, and now they have to do it.That is to smash the Thai baht directly to death!So starting at the end of May, a large number of Thai baht contracts were sold in the foreign exchange market every day, and the exchange rate of the Thai baht was constantly falling!In the past, the government of Thailand was able to spend money to go in and take these contracts, but now, they really have no money!

The Thai baht exchange rate policy at this time is not the later free exchange rate, but similar to that of China in this year, it is an exchange rate policy pegged to a basket of currencies.That is to say, the exchange rate of a group of currencies such as the U.S. dollar, Japanese yuan, German mark, and French franc is pegged. Although the official exchange rate can be changed according to the exchange rate of this basket of currencies.But in Thailand's foreign exchange market.The exchange rate of the Thai baht can only be speculated in the range of 0.08%.

Originally, this approach, like China's foreign exchange policy, is a method to protect the domestic currency exchange rate.But the problem is that Thailand is too small and there is too little money.Moreover, the result of their own development over the years is a large amount of foreign debt.Moreover, the economic development itself has begun to stagflate in the past two years.This has turned into a situation where money is tightened in the country itself, and at this time Soros and others are attacking, it is really not that the flies are eyeing the seamless eggs.Instead, "take advantage of his illness to kill him"!

At this time, Thailand was in a hurry. They contacted Singapore and borrowed another sum of money. They simply began to abandon the single exchange rate system and began to implement the dual-regulation exchange rate system.The so-called dual exchange rate system means that there is one exchange rate on the foreign exchange market, but if you want to find a bank in Thailand to exchange dollars, you need to use a much lower "domestic exchange rate" to exchange!In this way, it is tantamount to a mandatory restriction not to exchange Thai baht for US dollars in Thailand, that is, not to sell Thai baht!

Such an idea is very good, but there is something called offshore business in this world. Some foreign banks can operate Thai baht business outside of Thailand, so Soros used these foreign banks that operate offshore Thai baht business, Secretly contacted a local bank in Thailand, borrowed the baht of the other party in various ways, and then sold it, thereby suppressing the exchange rate of the baht!

While doing so, Soros began to sell the stocks of related companies in Thailand that he had acquired earlier. While making a big difference, he also began to suppress Thailand's finances from the stock market!On the first day of the suppression, Soros and the others successfully lowered the entire Thai stock market index by 4%!In other words, if the Thai stock market index is 2000 points, then it will be suppressed by 80 points in one day!This can be regarded as a plunge!

At the same time, the Thai baht exchange rate, which had been fluctuating between 25:1 and 26:1 under the tug-of-war between the Thai government and Soros, was directly suppressed to 27:1!Seeing that the exchange rate may not be able to withstand it, on June 1997, 6, the finance minister of Thailand's government held a press conference and urgently announced that financial institutions would suspend interest rate swaps, forward transactions, and options for interest rates and exchange rates. .

This kind of approach is basically a trick, that is, they can't beat Soros, but relying on their home court advantage, they directly seal the entire handicap and prevent people from playing.After the handicap is closed here, everyone knows that the rest of Soros can only make a fuss within the rules stipulated by the Thai government, because the exchange rate cannot be played for the time being, so what Soros can do is to suppress Thailand's domestic stock market!

Such a foolish trick has strengthened the confidence of Thai people in the Thai baht in a short period of time. In a short period of time, the exchange rate of the Thai baht has risen directly from the previous 2526 to the US dollar to 23 baht to the US dollar. The new high exchange rate in two years !The Thai government who got this result is very confident. They know that Soros will cause trouble in the stock market. In order to support the stock market, the Thai government directly printed 4300 billion baht of funds, which is about 180 million baht. Hundreds of millions of dollars were poured into the local stock market.The reason is very simple, and the purpose is also very simple, that is to fight Soros, and to use Thai baht to increase the market index of the Thai stock market!

In a short period of time, Thailand seemed to be successful. For a while, the stock market in Thailand soared all the way. Seeing that Soros seemed to be killed, but what no one noticed was that such a large amount of Thai baht currency poured into the market in a short period of time. In the Thai market, the result is that the Thai government ruined the exchange rate of the Thai baht by himself!This is the same as in China, throwing 4300 billion yuan to hit the stock market. Although the stock market has soared all the way, the money will eventually circulate in the market, and finally there will be inflation, and the result of inflation will be in fact. Suppress the exchange rate of Thai baht to US dollar!

Soon, the Thai also found out that he seemed to have made a foolish move, as if he had been fooled by Soros's feint shot, and ended up stepping into the hole dug by Soros on his own initiative, not to mention, he even threw it on himself. Buried a lot of soil!By mid-June, Thailand couldn't hold on anymore, and their finance minister took the blame and resigned.As soon as this news came out, the exchange rate in Thailand dropped again. It can be said that it suddenly fell to the point where one dollar was exchanged for 6 baht!The Thai fu insisted that it would stick to the baht.

At this time, Jia Hongjian was supposed to go back to school to take the exam.But at this time, he really can't leave, because he is now following the news of Thailand 24 hours a day with Boss Zhu and many think tanks!This Chinese fu tracking news in Thailand is different from ordinary companies tracking news. It does not track news based on any public reports, but collects various first-hand information based on Xinhua News Agency's reporter station in Thailand and the embassy in Thailand!

"Hung-chien, what do you think?" Boss Jiang asked Jia Hongjian with his brows furrowed after reading a stack of first-hand materials sent back from Thailand.From the information collected by the embassy, ​​it is estimated that the form in Thailand is quite difficult.From this point of view, it can be said that Jia Hongjian's prediction a few months ago is now step by step towards reality!Although everyone now feels that Thailand is doomed, Boss Jiang still wants to hear Jia Hongjian's opinion. Maybe Jia Hongjian will say that Thailand is still saved?

Boss Zhu is also focusing on Jia Hongjian at this time. Although Boss Zhu also understands economics and finance very well, and although he himself has analyzed that Thailand is definitely doomed, he also wants to hear from Jia Hongjian. The answer that Thailand can last for a while.After all, it doesn’t matter if Thailand collapses. After Thailand collapses, according to Jia Hongjian’s prediction, countries such as Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, etc. will collapse next. All the countries in the circle are going to end!

These countries are all ruined, it is not someone else's business that can be watched casually, the result of such a thing, it is very likely that China's economy will also be seriously affected indirectly, and then the money will be extremely tight!It can be said that Jia Hongjian once predicted that in 98, because of the tightening of money, Zhong Yang had to force the quota of layoffs in batches to be uniform because there was no time to come in batches, and there was no money to come in batches!Then in batches, that is the rhythm of the country and the people dying together!

At this moment, Jia Hongjian was silent for a while, and finally, his lips moved slightly, but no sound came out, as if he was considering how to express this important conclusion.Even at this time, Wu Jinglian and other great economics experts subconsciously held their breath and waited for Jia Hongjian to speak.In the end, Jia Hongjian slowly said with a serious face, "I personally predict that within a month at most, Thailand will have to announce the abandonment of the fixed exchange rate and start implementing the free exchange rate, and then...Thailand will collapse. And then Come down, it will be the new Matai soon..."

At this moment, Boss Zhu and the others felt a chill in their hearts, although they had probably heard about this prediction from Jia Hongjian, even though they could probably figure out that Thailand would not be able to hold on.But when they heard Jia Hongjian's prediction that Thailand might not be able to survive for a month, how could they not feel cold?This Thailand is ruined, and the sad days in China will come next. The real big test is coming!

The Asian financial crisis, which has a profound impact on China, is about to officially kick off... (To be continued.)