Coquettish Rebirth

In order to invest in real estate, Jia Hongjian had to read the relevant analysis for a while. Fortunately, digital analysis is very developed in the United States, or it is such a national habit of Americans that everything must be represented digitally.For a sport like football that originated in the UK, not many figures are used for analysis.But basketball, a sport invented by the Americans, is different. In addition to the conventional shooting percentage, there are various formulas and numbers to analyze the quality of a player, such as the assist-to-turnover ratio, such as what statistics The personal efficiency represented by +- in the statistics, this efficiency is a data invented by former espn columnist John Hollinger to measure the overall performance of a player, and now Mr. Hollinger has joined the Grizzlies management.

Such a personal efficiency is also called the pre value. The calculation formula is extremely complicated, and it uses major data such as field goals, free throws, three-pointers, rebounds, assists, steals, blocks, etc., missed shots, personal mistakes, personal fouls, team courts The average score, the average score per game of the league is included, and the weighted data based on the offensive and defensive performance of each team in the current season to eliminate the influence of play style, etc. Since the invention of this data, the league and the media have basically recognized its value for a player. real embodiment.Although relatively speaking, the personal efficiency calculated by such a data formula is more friendly to offensive players, because good offensive players get high efficiency, and defensive players do not score because of things like stealing and blocking shots. There are many opportunities, so in fact, if a defensive player is good to a certain extent, and there is another offensive player who is as good as him in offense, then the efficiency value of the offensive player is much better than that of the defensive player!

However, even if such an efficiency value is relatively unfair, it is still very useful in evaluating a player's offense and comprehensiveness, so it is widely used by nba teams and officials.This kind of efficiency stuff.Is there a football world?No!Then, such data as how many points a team or player can score and lose in a hundred rounds, is there any data in the football field?No!Because this football was invented by Europeans, it has the same classical European literary atmosphere when played, and it pays attention to a tradition.As for the basketball invented in the United States, it is similar to the personality of the Americans, and all kinds of data analysis is required.Even many Americans and even professional basketball players understand that many things in the basketball field cannot be shown by data.But this is not a reason for Americans to give up data, but just to tell them that this means that the development of mathematical tools is not enough!As long as new statistical methods and calculation formulas are developed, all visible and invisible things on the field can be represented by numbers!

The same is true in the field of real estate.The Americans painstakingly recorded a lot of weird data, and these data are still convenient for a foreign investor like Jia Hongjian!According to digital analysis, in the years before the crisis in the United States, low interest rates and a large inflow of foreign funds created loose credit conditions, fueling the soaring housing market.And encourage debt-financed consumption.The proportion of American households owning a home went from 1994% in 64 and before to 2004% in 69.2, the highest level in history.From the 80s to the 90s, the home ownership rate was basically around 64%. Therefore, from such a figure, we can see that subprime mortgages have made important contributions to the increase in the home ownership rate and the overall housing demand.It can be said that the only advantage of subprime mortgages is that about 5% of people who cannot afford a house or have bad credit can buy a house!

在另外一边，从1997年到2006年间，一般的美国住房价格增加了124％。在2001年结束往前算的20年间，全国房价中值是2.9到3.1倍的中产家庭收入。这个比例在2004年上升至4.0，而2006年则昇至4.6。这房地产泡沫 导致了不少业主对其住屋以较低利率再融资，或透过免除由房价上涨保证的二次贷款为消费者开销提供融资。时至2007年底。美国家庭债务对年度个人可支配收入的百分比为127％，而在1990年为77％。按照美国房地产经纪人协会网站提供的数据显示。这2007年的时候，全美房价中值是在26万美元左右，为全美家庭收入中位数的4.7倍！这数据看起来好像是在说美国老百姓一家四口人不吃不喝5年就可以全款买的起房子，而事实上也的确是这样——谁让他们的房子都在郊区呢？谁让他们上班开车都要很长时间呢？

And after all, this is a nationally calculated data. Although it is the median rather than the average, it is estimated that the median is similar if it is calculated in China-listing the housing prices of all cities in China.Find the middle one among so many cities. The housing price in their city is the national median housing price. Exactly half of the cities have higher housing prices than this city, and half of the cities have cheaper housing prices than this city.Although housing prices in Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou have soared in the past two years, don't forget that there are still thousands of n-tier cities and counties in China!The median house price in China in 07.It is estimated that a 3000 square meter is about the same?As for the median income, we don’t have statistics in China, so let’s calculate it based on an average of 2000 yuan a month. Isn’t that too much?

2000 yuan a month, 3000 yuan per square meter means that one person buys one square meter for one and a half months without food or drink. If you buy a two-bedroom and one living room with a construction area of ​​50 square meters, how long does it take to save without food or drink? 75 months, 12 months a year, but just over 6 years!How different is this from America?Moreover, a large part of housewives in the United States do not work, while women in Chinese families basically have jobs!If the calculation is based on the fact that both husband and wife have an income of 2000, then the husband and wife can afford to buy a house together in 3 years and one and a half months!Is it expensive?If you have to take the data of Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou as an example, the data of the United States is not the data of New York and Los Angeles!According to the data in New York, the house price has long been unaffordable for locals!The poor locals in New York either live in slums, or the middle class go to live in New Jersey, and even the richer middle class live in areas such as Long Island with a good environment, but they can’t afford to live in good places in the urban area. location!

Having said that, the United States is at the same time that house prices continue to increase.Consumers save less and borrow and spend more.The culture of consumerism is an element in an economy based on immediate gratification.Since 2005, American families have invested more than 99.5% of their personal disposable income in consumption or interest payments. It can be said that 99.5% of the people in the United States are dependents!If most estimates involving owner-occupied housing are removed from these calculations, US household spending has exceeded its personal disposable income every year since 1999.Household debt grew at the end of 1974.From 7 billion US dollars, 50% of personal disposable income, to 60 trillion at the end of 2000, and finally reached 7 trillion in early 4, or 2007% of personal disposable income.During 13, the average American household had 5 credit cards, and 134% of households had outstanding balances on credit cards, up from 2006% in 13.

This explosion of credit and housing prices led to a housing boom, and then unsold homes.This caused US home prices to peak in mid-2006 and begin to fall.The easing of credit.And the belief that house prices would continue to appreciate encouraged many subprime borrowers to take out variable-rate mortgages.These mortgages lure borrowers with a below-market rate for a predetermined term, and then pay the market rate for the remainder of the term.Borrowers who are unable to make the higher monthly payments will likely try to refinance their mortgages once the initial grace period ends.Once real estate prices started to drop in many parts of the U.S., refinancing became more difficult.Borrowers who found themselves unable to refinance out of higher monthly payments began defaulting.

Foreclosures and the inventory of homes for sale rose as more borrowers stopped making their mortgage payments.This puts downward pressure on home prices, further reducing homeowners' equity in their mortgages.Falling mortgage repayments also lowered the value of residential mortgage-backed securities, which weakened banks' net worth and financial position.This vicious circle is at the heart of the crisis.In such a case, according to the analysis of the Brokers Association.It is estimated that by this time next year, 10% of all homeowners in the United States will find that their houses have become negative equity.In other words, house prices have fallen more than the loans to be paid!Under such circumstances, to what extent should a person be responsible and continue to pay the mortgage?Not everyone in the United States is a moral model. There must be more people who choose not to pay loans at this time!And if you stop paying the loan, the price of a large number of houses will definitely be lower when they enter the market!Maybe house prices will plummet by more than 20% within a year!

So are these houses a good investment opportunity?Of course not. First of all, let’s not talk about the location of these houses, just look at the statistics of the American Association of Realtors.About 28% of the houses sold in the statistics last year were used as investment, and then 12% were used as vacation houses-so needless to say, this vacation house It must be all kinds of deep mountains and old forests!So in fact, it means that 06% of the houses sold in the United States in 40 were completely unoccupied!How do you invest in your sister's house?I really don't know how long it will take for the market to digest these houses!And now the housing price is still falling, if you buy it, you will be a fool!And didn't Jia Hongjian say that if we want to buy, we should buy a good house in a good location in the central city.The house over there has investment value!

So after paying close attention to the US real estate market, Jia Hongjian found a few well-known brokers in New York and Los Angeles, and then began to send tasks to them as if they were helping each other.Originally, at this time, those managers were really miserable and had no work, so when Jia Hongjian came to the door, they were so excited that they almost called Jia Hongjian grandpa!It is estimated that if Jia Hongjian asked his manager's wife to sleep with him for a night, those managers would be happy!But having said that, the task given by Jia Hongjian is not to buy a house right now, but to ask these agents to help him start to pay attention to some good properties with good prospects but due to environmental problems that have suspended work or reduced prices. He, Jia Hongjian, has a lot of money! (To be continued..)