Coquettish Rebirth

The five largest investment banks in the United States have now become history.Which are the top five investment banks in the past?Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Lehman Brothers, and Bear Stearns.Now that Bear Stearns is about to be acquired, only four of the five major investment banks will be saved.Although it is not obvious now, Jia Hongjian knows that next year, Lehman Brothers, the fourth oldest of the five major investment banks in the United States, will also declare bankruptcy for various reasons!Besides, Lehman Brothers, like Merrill Lynch, would have troubles, and finally got acquired!That is to say, in the second half of next year, only two of the five major investment banks in the United States that have been stunned for so many years will be saved!

And these two, namely Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, will finally turn to the US government for help due to a large amount of losses, and finally seem to have to become a "bank holding company system" or in other words, a "group bank system". ", maybe many ordinary people still don't understand, so in "human language", that is, "Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are finally going to become ordinary commercial banks"!That's right!Although the names of these two investment banks contain the word "bank", in fact, the investment banks have nothing to do with the banks!Why do you say that?Because the general traditional commercial banks are to solicit savings, then lend out, earn the interest difference in the middle, and sell various wealth management products along the way, right?

And what about investment banks?That is, they don't collect savings at all, and they don't lend out at all!So how does their "bank" make money?In short, it is securities issuance, underwriting, trading, corporate restructuring, mergers and acquisitions, investment analysis, venture capital, project financing and other businesses similar to securities companies!Investment bank is the title of the United States and the European continent, the UK is called a merchant bank, and in Japan it is a securities company!So in the second half of 08, the five major investment banks on Wall Street could be said to have been completely annihilated. At that time, Jia Hongjian still remembered that the American media lamented that the "Wall Street Era" was shattered!At that time, after this Wall Street financial oligarch model is shattered, the turmoil caused will of course be great!If I remember correctly.That's when the S&P 500 topped 2003 for the first time since 1000, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average posted its biggest annual drop since 1937.At the same time, the rate of decline of the three major stock indexes has also reached the highest record!

The credit crunch in the financial market is very serious. Due to bank losses, many banks have tightened their monetary policy and raised their financing conditions.The scale of credit has been reduced, which has tightened liquidity, and at the same time, financing costs have increased, making it difficult for companies to obtain financing.At the same time, due to the turmoil in the financial market and the increase in investment risks, the enthusiasm of international investors has been restrained to a certain extent, and the investment transaction volume is low and the transaction is slow.As for a country like the United States, its gdp accounts for 28% of the world's total gdp!Such a powerful country has a hard time at the beginning, and of course it will cause global problems.Next, Britain, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Greece, etc. will all be unlucky, and even South Korea, Japan, and large tracts of Latin American countries will enter a period of economic stagflation!According to the calculation results of the World Bank, the United States is in crisis, and as a result, the average global development rate will drop from 25% to 3%!It can be said that the world has entered a period of economic stagflation at once!All of a sudden, it will lead to various employment difficulties!

That's right, if the economic development slows down, then the next thing must be that it is difficult to find a job.Occupy Wall Street has emerged in the United States.What kind of "99%" movement, it is really not an isolated case.This is the case in many countries around the world.For example, Spain, such a country, developed the real estate industry vigorously before.Originally, their country has a good geographical environment, and many Nordic people come here for vacation every winter.There are more people on vacation, and the price of this hotel will definitely rise sharply by then, so many people think that instead of coming here every year and being exploited by the hotel, it is better to buy a house in Spain!In this way, it doesn't matter whether it is usually rented out or not.At least you don't need to spend any money when you come to live here, right?This is at least better than paying the hotel?And after all, the hotel is a place where all kinds of people live, where can I live comfortably in my own home?As a result, after the financial crisis spread from the United States to Europe, the economic development situation in Europe slowed down, and those guys who had a lot of money and could afford to go to the south for vacation.All of a sudden, I thought, "Fuck, the economic situation is not good now, will it get worse in the future? If it gets worse, we can't run out of money! What if our company goes bankrupt and we lose our jobs? "So in this way, the Nordic people will not go to Spain for vacation, and the number of people who want to buy a house will suddenly decrease by a lot!

And in this way, the Spanish vacation industry and the related real estate industry will lose money all of a sudden!After all, this house was not built in three or two days!Before the economic crisis, all real estate developers had no idea that there would be an economic crisis afterwards!They are still increasing investment in various resorts!As a result, your sister’s house has just been built and is ready to be sold out. When the economic crisis came, the folks and elders in Northern Europe stopped buying houses immediately. Wouldn’t this house be sold out?Who would come to buy this kind of resort to live in?This resort was built for foreigners who come to vacation!As a result, these real estate developers broke up their capital flow one by one. If they were unlucky and almost capable, they would go bankrupt and run away. If they were lucky and stronger, even if they did not go bankrupt, it would be impossible to continue building resorts. So the engineering teams on hand don't need so much!This is mass layoffs!

And Jia Hongjian still remembers that before 08, many young men in Spain went out to work directly after graduating from high school!why?Because the real estate situation was good before, construction workers only needed a high school degree, and they were paid a lot of money, which was higher than the salary they could get after graduating from university to find a job!As a result, many people went directly to move bricks and become construction workers.But when the economic crisis came, and a large number of layoffs were laid off, wouldn't the hardest hit by layoffs be construction workers?Construction workers are basically young and strong laborers!So if Jia Hongjian remembers correctly, around 09, the unemployment rate of young people under the age of 30 in Spain was as high as 50%!What is this concept?One out of two young people is unemployed!At this time, I am unemployed and I can't find any work!So the young people have to eat unemployment benefits, and even they are not satisfied with the unemployment benefits, they still feel that the money is too little, and they have nothing to do!Young people are such creatures.Most of the time, they just don't find jobs for them to vent their experience, they have to find some jobs to make the government a headache!At that time, all kinds of young people in Spain will take a big walk!So at this time, names such as the five European pig countries came out!

Having said that, when Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley in the United States were investment banks before, they were considered "securities companies", so they are not supervised by a "bank boss" like the Federal Reserve.Rather, it is the SEC oversight.Compared with the Federal Reserve, the supervision of the Securities and Exchange Commission is simply too loose!After applying to become a "bank holding company", Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, like other commercial banks, will be subject to the supervision and jurisdiction of the Federal Reserve.As bank holding companies, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley have obtained the same qualifications as other commercial banks to carry out traditional banking business, can absorb deposits, and support their business by absorbing commercial deposits.After becoming bank holding companies, the deposits acquired by the two banks are protected by the US Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation.This move will undoubtedly ensure the relative stability of the two banks' businesses.And that's exactly what they desperately need in the midst of the financial crisis.

At such a time, it can be said that the financial nation of the United States, the days of financial imperialism, will be over.Originally, in the past, the United States was de-industrialized, and various industries were transferred abroad. They felt that the United States was going to become a purely national finance!But things like finance do not create wealth by themselves!What exactly is finance?It is the redistribution of financial resources!In short, it is a tool to redistribute social hot money.It is to gather the hot money that is idle in the society and invest it in various real industries that need funds.It was originally such a financial thing.That should be an auxiliary existence for the real economy, a role equivalent to a nanny, and the real economy is still the role of a meat shield fighter plus a dps thief mage.As for the United States, they felt that being a nanny was very difficult, so they drove out the tanks and dps in their team, and in the end it was like a group pounce?That's why Obama has to call for various re-industrialization afterwards.Because the Americans have also discovered that it is easy to kill themselves by simply playing with finance!

Of course, after suffering such a sap, the Americans will definitely not suffer themselves!Next, they will definitely use their dominant position to carry out crisis transfer, and then they will definitely prepare for shearing.Harvest the good results of the development of other countries in the world for more than ten years, and get the wealth back to save them America!If Jia Hongjian remembers correctly, the assets of the United States and Americans overseas will set a record for the highest growth rate in history in the whole year of 2007!Overseas assets of US$3.56 trillion can be added within one year!According to the World Bank's data, China's GDP in 2007 was only 3.2 trillion US dollars!What is this concept?The wealth that Americans bought overseas in 2007 was higher than the GDP that the Chinese created for the country after a year of hard work?If this is added to the assets previously purchased overseas by the United States, the total value of the United States' overseas assets will soon reach 20 trillion U.S. dollars!This is higher than the gdp of the United States itself!In such a situation... No matter how you look at it, it looks like a harbinger of shearing, doesn't it?Otherwise, what are so many American investors running out to invest like crazy?

When he saw this, he got in touch with many memories of the news in his previous life, and Jia Hongjian suddenly felt that he could see the situation in the next stage very clearly!He is ready now, and when the price of crude oil and other large-scale raw materials drops to a certain level, he will be ready to start eating!After all, in order to shear sheep in the United States, it will definitely slowly push up the prices of oil and various large items!And in this way, if we hitch a ride, wouldn't we be able to make some money for ourselves by the way? (To be continued..)