Coquettish Rebirth

Jia Hongjian checked it out. As a commercial bank, the total amount of various financial derivatives issued by Citigroup in 2007 has already exceeded the danger line!In addition, under the policy support of the United States in 1998, they made various financial derivatives business into the form of bonds issued—for example, mortgage-backed bonds and the like.What is this thing?It is equivalent to saying that Citigroup has already taken out the housing mortgage loans, selected some relatively high-quality loans, formed a collection, and then brought this collection to the market to borrow money!In fact, this is very similar to national debt. What is the guarantee basis for national debt?It is the economic situation of the country, and it is the confidence of various investors in the development of the country. Everyone thinks that the country can afford it, so everyone buys its bonds. If you buy 100 yuan in this way, you may pay back 105 yuan in the next few years. , Although the interest is low, it is safe!

And what does such a mortgage-backed bond rely on to borrow money?It is relying on the quality of these mortgage loans and the expected future profit of "the loan will be recovered in the future" to borrow money from investors!What about borrowing money?Citi can do more business!But there is also a problem with this, that is, if the business is not good, Citigroup will not be able to borrow money at all if it wants to rely on securitization!In 07, after the re-securitization and securitization of various financial businesses launched by Citibank, the total amount of these securitization and securitization products has reached 116% of Citigroup's own assets!The total amount has exceeded the assets of Citigroup itself. What does this mean?It means that the market has dropped by 10%, and Citigroup itself may be immediately insolvent and bankrupt!From this point of view, the people of Citigroup are really playing with fire as if they are insane. They are really all kinds of tightrope walks-as long as the world is going well, they will continue to make a lot of money. !

From these perspectives, it can be said that it is really not a good thing to develop too many new products such as financial derivatives!It can be said that sincerity is like letting people play roulette, half of the bank or something.They know that only selling products to the rich is tantamount to gambling with the rich, and then design it to make a steady profit without losing, 9 wins and 1 loss, but banks like Citigroup lose their minds and go crazy, and they end up themselves.It's like Citigroup playing "Russian roulette" with the common people - everyone takes a revolver, puts only one bullet in the revolver, and then turns the wheel and then closes the gun. No one knows where the bullet is. During the time, everyone took turns to shoot at themselves... how can you not get your shoes wet when you often walk by the river?It's only a matter of time before something happens to Citigroup!

But really speaking from a historical point of view.Finance is really not an evil thing, or it should be a double-edged sword-because in fact, the research and development of financial products can really promote a huge change in the consumption pattern!For example, in the United States before the 20th century, if a rich person was going to travel far and far away to do business, then he really needed to bring a lot of money with him!why?In those days, there were no checks, so how could you buy things without cash?There is no network, no ATM machines, and even banks do not have large-scale establishment of various branches across the country!Just like in ancient China, although the TV dramas seem to use bank notes, how can bank notes be so circulated?Do you really think it's banknotes?First of all, the anti-counterfeiting of banknotes is not as good as banknotes.Are you really afraid of the cost of large-scale distribution?So even if bank notes can be used on a large scale in one place, it is only limited to such a region, and depositors will not be allowed to withdraw money across regions!Because it is not easy to check accounts across regions, it is not easy to know whether the bank notes exchanged here really have so much money in the account!

But things like checks are different. Things like checks are all given by the bank, and you must open an account before you can get a check.On the other hand, you can exchange money by going to the bank with a check. At the same time, when the 20th century came out, radio, a form of communication, developed greatly. It can be said that a check was received here.Reconciliation verification with the headquarters can be carried out in a few minutes by radio!In this way, rich people really don't need to carry large sums of cash when they travel, they only need to carry checks!when making a deal.It is no longer necessary to use cash to trade, but to directly write a check to the other party, and the other party sends a younger brother to a local bank branch to exchange it immediately. After verification, isn't the business here closed?

But if it is changed to ancient China, a kid from a rich family rushes to take the exam.I ran from Shanghai to the capital, how would I live if I didn't have a lot of money with me?You can still rely on scattered money for daily food and so on, but what if you want to buy a mansion or something?Giving money?Shit, the bank account in Shanghai does not have a semicolon in the capital!Even if there is a semicolon, it is useless, because of the limitations of geography and information transmission, it is difficult for both sides to synchronize the accounting information!For example, what if the Shanghai Examiner is a liar?If he and his accomplice have deposited 1 taels of silver in the bank account in Shanghai, and after an agreed time, they will withdraw the 1 taels of silver from the bank account in Shanghai before buying the house. What?What if the exam in the capital used a counterfeit banknote?In a short period of time, the account information that the Shanghai bank account was withdrawn could not be quickly transmitted to the capital, so the examiner withdrew another [-] yuan from the capital bank account. Isn't the capital bank account losing money?Therefore, in the era when the information transmission department is convenient, it is impossible for this kind of cross-district withdrawal of money to happen!

It can be said that with the advancement of technology and the advancement of communication technology, banks or banks can communicate quickly and verify various account information. Under such a situation, they may support withdrawals in different places and consumption in other places!At the same time, the innovation of financial means, after the emergence of checks for withdrawals and consumption in different places, it is easy to stimulate consumption and promote economic development! In the 20th century, such a thing as traveler’s checks appeared, allowing people to spend with checks all over the country or even all over the world without carrying a lot of cash. This really stimulated all kinds of consumption in the United States, even in the 70s and 21s. At that time, all kinds of check consumption were still popular in the United States!Whether it is staying in a hotel, eating, or even shopping at a street stall, you can ask the other party "Do you accept checks" in the same way as asking the other party "Can I swipe my card" in the [-]st century.

Later, in the 50s and 60s, banks all over the world gradually discovered the benefits of credit cards. In the past, checks still needed money in the account to have a check book!And it is not overdrawn!For example, if a person deposits $1000 in an account with a large bank, he can ask the bank to give him a check book.On this check book is the name of the fixed bank, and the name of the person will be clearly written at the same time, and each check will also have a special anti-counterfeiting code.Such a checkbook must be full of empty checks. If the person who wrote the first check had written a check for $1000, even if there were dozens of checks below, he would not be able to spend any more checks— —Because the money in the account has been spent, if you write a check again, it will be a bad check, and the merchant will not be able to exchange it for money!

But credit cards are different. Credit cards are purely based on credit and use the bank's money first, and then pay back the money later.There is no need to deposit any money in the credit card account, but when you need it, you can withdraw money according to the credit limit or directly swipe it!This is very useful for many people. For example, what if the moon is shining this month, and I have spent all my salary and want to buy something?There is no way when you only have a check, but it is different with a credit card!This immediately stimulates consumption!Although it is said that it is enough to eat enough food, it still stimulates consumption anyway, doesn't it?And within a short period of time after the issuance of credit cards, banks discovered a newer financial tool - installment payment!

Things like installment payment are like credit card overdrafts, they are living beyond their means, and if installment payment is combined with a credit card, the effect is quite powerful, allowing a person with an income of only 1 a month to buy [-] Dollar product!In this way, how much will it promote consumption?After more and more people use installment payment and credit cards in the society, how many companies will increase their sales due to this?After the sales volume of these enterprises has soared, they will hire more people, import more raw materials, and manufacture more products.And such a way of increasing investment will also stimulate upstream manufacturers, so one after another, and finally the overall economy will get better and better!

From these perspectives, finance is really very useful in stimulating economic development and rationally allocating economic resources.But when such a useful thing is played too far, it becomes purely a gamble between fighting for profit or being hanged-just as Marx said, when the profit is too high, the businessman even They will sell the rope to hang him to others at the risk of being hanged!In this regard, no matter what country it is, it is still necessary to strengthen the monitoring of financial institutions, or to set up various "firewalls" to prevent the financial stuff from going too far and burning everyone to death!Of course, such a thing is just a way of summarizing experience and lessons. For Jia Hongjian, summarizing the experience and lessons of Citigroup is not the main thing he needs to do—the top leaders of various countries must be think tanks We are all studying these things. For example, there must be a group of think tanks in China telling leaders to prevent financial overplaying.So there are many people who think about these things, not many Jia Hongjian, and few Jia Hongjian are not many.

As the core of Huaxia Hi-Tech, Jia Hongjian really thinks about how to take advantage of the fact that Citigroup is on the verge of bankruptcy!For example, Citigroup said earlier that it would sell 450 billion of non-performing assets in housing mortgage loans, but now it has announced that it will sell a total of 4000 billion in assets within two to three years. Is this possible for Huaxia Hi-Tech to seize the opportunity? place? (~^~)