Coquettish Rebirth

Of course, the transformation of various economic crises into political crises in the future is a matter of the future after all, and now Jia Hongjian can’t control it so leniently—to be honest, it seems that the United States is looking for trouble with Russia or Europe How does he prepare for troublesome things?At most, you can take the opportunity to short the euro or the ruble, but the real problem is that before the United States starts to trouble Russia and Europe, the exchange rates of these two currencies will actually start to fall by themselves. After the economic crisis, Russia It is because the decline in oil prices has caused international investment to be pessimistic about the Russian economic trend, and the ruble has begun to deteriorate. As for Europe, their euro will depreciate by itself-because depreciation can better throw the blame on others, so that later They get out of the crisis in Europe as soon as possible!

It's like why the United States immediately started quantitative easing when it encountered a crisis or something?Quantitative easing means printing more money!And if you print more money, the dollar will depreciate naturally!Not to mention that printing more money in the United States is a matter of collecting seigniorage from the world. It is just that when there is an economic crisis, no matter whether it is the euro, the yen or other yuan, it will depreciate.Even when the economy is generally poor globally, that would cause a competitive devaluation!Why is everyone depreciating?Because when the economy is not good, how can everyone have time to control others, first take care of yourself!How do you take care of yourself?Protect your own market first, protect the vitality of your own companies, and protect the income of your own domestic people!

How could currency devaluation have these effects?For example, if the exchange rate between RMB and US dollar is 6 before the economic crisis, when the economic crisis occurs, our RMB depreciates to 8 yuan for 1 US dollar.Then naturally importing products from the United States will cost more RMB, and then selling American products in the Chinese market will definitely cost more. At the same time, because of the bad economy, consumers will try to choose relatively cheap products. Naturally, the sales of American products are poor. up!Naturally, more domestic products are sold!In this way, domestic factories can avoid competition from American factories and start more work, right?Not to mention that after the devaluation of the renminbi, foreign currencies are cheaper.It can further stimulate exports and occupy foreign markets through price advantages, so that our domestic factories can operate more fully, and the income of ordinary people will be relatively higher.Wouldn't the economy slowly recover in this way?Of course, we export more products. If any country does not depreciate, then their own companies will be hit, and blood will be sucked to make it easier for other countries to get out of the crisis!

So after 08.Needless to say, Europe itself will start to depreciate the euro!For example, before 08, the exchange rate of Euro for Renminbi was basically 10 Renminbi for one Euro, and it will gradually decline in a few years.In 11, Jia Hongjian remembered that 9 yuan was exchanged for 1 euro, and in 12, the lowest price was 8 yuan for 1 euro!People obviously want to stimulate exports, which is an obvious depreciation!Although the euro will definitely depreciate, then there is a basis for shorting the euro-because in fact, the principle of shorting a product, whether it is shorting currency or shorting futures, is actually to borrow a batch of stuff from financial institutions such as brokerages in advance.For example, if we want to short the euro, we need to find an international financial institution that is willing to lend us the euro, and then let us borrow 1 million euros.At that time, the value was 10 billion RMB. If we sold the 1 million euros and exchanged them for RMB, it was equivalent to getting 10 billion RMB.And for the 1 million euros, we still owe other people's financial institutions, and we still have to give them interest before exchanging [-] million euros for them.

Then wait until the euro depreciates, for example, when it depreciates to 8 yuan for 1 euro, we will take the opportunity to buy 8 million euros with 1 million yuan and return it to other financial institutions.As a result, the 1 million euros borrowed by the financial institution at the beginning were returned to the account. At the same time, during the period of time when the loan was borrowed, they could still earn interest just like usury, and they also made money!And tell us.At the beginning, we borrowed 10 million euros and sold them, and exchanged them for 8 billion yuan, and then bought 1 million euros with 2 million yuan and returned them to others. Didn’t we make [-] million yuan in the end?In fact, shorting currencies is such a thing!

And shorting futures is similar, that is, borrowing a batch of futures contracts of a certain commodity before shorting. This futures contract is the main body of futures market transactions. For example, 10 tons of crude oil will be produced in one year.With such a contract, you can receive 10 tons of crude oil, and the futures market is to use this contract in everyone's hands to make transactions in advance.So shorting oil is to borrow a batch of oil contracts that expire at a certain time in the future, and then sell them for money.For example, if 10 billion RMB is exchanged, in the future, due to the drop in oil price, the expectation of the future price of oil will also drop, so the price of oil futures will also drop. At this time, a small amount of money will be used to buy back a batch of contracts and exchange them with financial institutions , and then pay the interest, then the rest will be earned by yourself!

Through such an operation process, anyone can see that if you want to earn more, you must borrow for a short time!That's right, whether it's a currency or a futures contract, it's really like usury!The bank loan interest rate is only a little over 4%, but the interest rate for shorting is at least 10%!Although it is said that the 10% interest is for one year, how much can you earn from a short sale?The euro has fallen from 08 to 12, and it has only changed from 10 yuan for 1 euro to 8 yuan for 1 euro, which means it has only fallen by 20%!As a result, if you short-sell the euro, you can only earn 4% of the money earned for 20 consecutive years, but at an interest rate of 10% per year, you will have to pay interest on the money earned in four years in two years!How the hell is this making money?

So when Soros and others shorted Southeast Asian currencies in history, they immediately sold a large amount of them after negotiating with various institutions to borrow, such as the Philippine currency, and immediately used such a move of selling themselves to trigger the market. The panic selling caused a huge short-term decline. Through such a move, the local currency can be bought in a short period of time and then returned to other institutions. Maximize!But whether it's oil or euros, the volume of this thing is too big, it can't be smashed down by tens of billions of dollars at all!When Soros smashed the currencies of several small countries in Southeast Asia, he spent billions of dollars to smash them. How big are those small countries?Moreover, Soros basically smashed each country individually, not to mention five or six countries at the same time!And we have to deal with an economy as large as the European Union, so the hundreds of billions of dollars in funds may not be able to make waves, okay?

The same is true for oil, which has a huge base and involves too many countries, and those oil tycoons are all so rich!In this case, do we still want to use the funds in our hands to drop the price of crude oil or the euro to a low level in a short period of time?What a dream!And if it is held for a long time, if it is long-term, then the money earned will not be enough to pay the interest in the end, and the money will be passed on to other financial institutions in the end, okay?So in such a situation, Jia Hongjian really didn't think there was any chance of making a profit.Under such a situation, there is really nothing that can be done to speculate, so what Jia Hongjian is going to do is to close some of the oil fields after July!

That's right, this is actually a kind of contrarian expansion!After July, oil prices began to drop rapidly. For many foreign oil companies at such a time, it was really the biggest tragedy in the world-this is not just a simple drop in oil prices, but also the demand for oil in the world. reduce!That is to say, on the one hand, their profits from oil production have plummeted, and on the other hand, the market demand has also dropped a lot. Many companies that have invested large sums of money in the exploration and development of new oil fields just want to cry!It's really hard to know how long it will take to pay back the cost, and because of the sluggish market, they all subconsciously want to collect cash flow to avoid a crisis for themselves!And besides, since July 7, the price of oil has plummeted in an instant-if I remember correctly, it reached the highest point of crude oil price in history on July 08, at $7 a barrel!Then in October, it immediately became about $7 a barrel!Then there was a slow decline, and in the first half of 11, the price was only around $147 a barrel.So in fact, the price fell the most in the three months from July to October!

With such a sharp drop, who else but Jia Hongjian could have predicted where the bottom would be?nobody!Even if the top executives of the oil companies say that oil will definitely become more and more scarce, and the price will become higher and higher... But don't forget that the international crude oil price was at a low point in 2000!A barrel of oil even fell below $20!How scarce is oil to skyrocket to $8 in 140 years?Obviously it was fired up!And who dares to say that the price of oil will not fall to the price in 2000?Who can guarantee?So we can take advantage of the fact that we are reborn when the international oil companies want to shrink their lines and reduce investment, and buy the future profitable oil fields in the hands of others, won't this make money?

Even if the price of oil has been hovering around US$2012 or even US$40 since 30, even if the world economy has not come out of the gloom by then, as long as we buy an oil field with an extraction cost of less than US$20, wouldn’t we still be able to make money?Of course, this will definitely make less money. It may take ten years for us to pay back the capital invested in oil fields, but the world economy cannot remain in such a downturn!It really can't be done, and it won't be booming in 2020?When the economy recovers and the price of oil rises, won't we make a lot of money again?So this is a long-term investment!Just like the Koreans are expanding against the trend in memory particles and LCD panels, this is expansion for future profits!And we can still make a small profit after the acquisition. When the Koreans are using the country's low-interest loans to burn money at a loss, they still need to expand!So our kind of investment must be extremely stable! (~^~)